Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive trend prediction**: Soybean No. 1, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **Negative trend prediction**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs are rated with one star, suggesting a bias towards short - term trends but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of soybean No. 1 futures rebounded rapidly from the low today, covering the decline of the previous two days and accompanied by an increase in positions. The domestic soybean auction had a premium, with an average transaction price of 3,925 yuan/ton and a premium of 0 - 140 yuan/ton. The transaction rate was 34.49%. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans rose continuously this week, and the 2601 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange decreased its positions by more than 70,000 lots and rose 1.40% today. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the soybean meal pick - up has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit at the end of the month. Amid many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, continue to wait and see and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contract of US soybeans continued to rise. Although the Brazilian soybean CIF premium fell and the RMB continued to appreciate, the domestic imported soybean cost still increased. The futures market showed a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and the soybean crushing profit was still in the red. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - to - meal ratio correction. In the long run, palm oil is expected to be resilient, and it is recommended to allocate vegetable oils on dips. In the short term, be cautious about the price correction of palm oil due to the pressure in the Malaysian market [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the rapeseed sector was stronger than its competitors, which was related to market concerns about Sino - Australian relations. The export of Australian rapeseed to China is not yet stable. The Russian rapeseed has been listed for crushing, and its export trade to China is not optimistic. The rapeseed oil price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, while the rapeseed meal price has short - term rebound momentum [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures rose 0.28% today. The supply of new corn in the Northeast continues, and the price has risen slightly. The new corn in Jilin may be listed in large quantities again soon, which will suppress the market price. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. With the possible easing of Sino - US relations, the corn import situation should be continuously monitored. The Dalian corn is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures weakened significantly today, showing a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The spot price continued to rise, with the national average slaughter price reaching 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan. The futures increased positions and declined, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Although the supply pressure is still large, the large price difference between fattening pigs may promote second - round fattening and hog retention, and the pork consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous supply pressure, a short - position strategy is recommended after the price rebounds. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and a second bottom may occur in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures failed to continue the previous upward trend, opening lower this morning and oscillating downward throughout the day without filling the gap. The near - month contract led the decline today, and the positions decreased by 10,000 lots. The spot price in Hebei started to fall, with a large decline in the price of small eggs. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. The unsold cold - storage eggs are also a potential pressure on the spot market. A short - position strategy is recommended at high prices [9].

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Apple: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, paper pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, price trends, and other factors. Most commodities are recommended for a wait - and - see approach currently [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, and the spot sales basis of cotton was mostly stable. Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices were slightly stronger, but the increase was limited. As of October 26, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for pure - cotton yarn spinning mills. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound with limited space, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production remained high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and their sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential controls on syrup imports. The market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with positions. High - quality apples' prices were stable at a high level, while low - quality ones were weak. Good apples were in short supply, and prices were expected to remain high in the early sales period, but there was inventory pressure for low - quality apples later. The market was mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and it was recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU and NR oscillated, BR continued to decline. The domestic natural rubber spot price fell slightly, and the synthetic rubber price was stable. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased slightly. Domestic tire operating rate rebounded slightly, and inventories increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 432,200 tons, the Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 24,600 tons, and the Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 14,000 tons. Demand was warming up, supply pressure was high, and it was recommended to wait and see [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures declined. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp was stable. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper pulp ports was 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports were 2.9525 million tons, an increase of 272,500 tons year - on - year. The port inventory was relatively high, demand was average, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a recommendation to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased. Domestic importers' willingness to import decreased, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. Port shipments were over 60,000 cubic meters, and the low inventory supported the price. It was recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is volatile in the short term, with macro sentiment providing support but weak demand expectations limiting the upside potential [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the steel trend [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel's apparent demand continues to recover but is still weak year-on-year, production has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil demand continues to rise, production is basically flat, and inventory has declined [2] - Iron water production remains high overall, but downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated [2] - Domestic demand is still weak overall, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - Global shipments are at a high level and stronger than the same period last year, while domestic arrivals have fallen below the annual average level, and port inventory is on an accumulating trend [2] - Iron water production has gradually declined from a high level, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk to a low level this year [2] - Policy benefits are expected, and market sentiment has improved [2] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has been fully implemented [3] - Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [3] - Coke inventory has hardly changed, and downstream procurement is mainly to consume inventory [3] - The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas, and prices may be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Production at coking coal mines has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions have improved [5] - Total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and production-end inventory has decreased slightly [5] - The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas, and prices may be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - Iron water production remains at a high level, but this week's Tangshan production restrictions may lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly production of silicomanganese has declined slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [6] - Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production remains at a high level, but this week's Tangshan production restrictions may lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory has continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, the chemical futures market shows a mixed performance with various factors influencing different sectors. Some sectors face supply - related pressures, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts declined. Supply pressure is hard to ease due to expected increases in supply from sources like Haiwei and Yulong. The anticipated increase in propylene volume may suppress spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also fell. For polyethylene, domestic supply is increasing while demand has limited impact on price. For polypropylene, supply is abundant and downstream demand only provides limited support [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene futures decreased. Short - term sentiment is bearish due to weakening oil prices, and high imports are a mid - term pressure. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts declined. High inventory and stable downstream demand with increasing finished - product inventory put long - term pressure on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are relatively strong. There is a short - term positive sentiment, but mid - term PTA may face inventory accumulation without effective measures [4] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is short - term inventory reduction, but mid - term accumulation is expected. It is advisable to short at high prices [4] - Short fiber has a good spot market currently, but may face inventory accumulation again. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. Port inventory is under pressure and demand is weak, with the market likely to remain in low - level oscillation [5] - Urea prices fell. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound after prices reach a low point [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply may increase, demand is stable, and exports are under pressure. It may operate in a bottom - range [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply is expected to rise, and downstream demand is average. Futures prices are likely to remain low [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Cost is rising, supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting near the cost [7] - Glass prices rose. There are signs of improvement in the Shahe spot market, but downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Downward movement may be limited [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities changed little this week. The factor strength of the non - ferrous sector rebounded, while that of the precious metals and agricultural products sectors declined. The non - ferrous sector was relatively strong in the cross - section, while the chemical and precious metals sectors were relatively weak [2]. - Different commodities have different trends in strategy net value and fundamental factors. For example, in the methanol market, the comprehensive signal was long this week; in the float glass market, it was neutral; in the iron ore market, it remained neutral; and in the Shanghai lead market, it remained short [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.11%, the demand factor increased by 0.13%, the inventory factor increased by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.19%. The comprehensive signal this week is long [3][4]. - **Fundamental Factors**: High import volume of methanol signaled a short on the supply side; increased开工负荷 of acetic acid and MTBE plants signaled a long on the demand side; methanol inventory in East China ports signaled a long on the inventory side; the spot price of inland methanol signaled a short, and the East China basis signaled a long, with the spread side being neutral to short [4]. Float Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.06%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, the profit factor increased by 0.06%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.05%. The comprehensive signal this week is neutral [7]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The capacity utilization rate of float glass remained flat, so the supply side remained neutral; the increase in the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities signaled a long on the demand side; continuous inventory accumulation of domestic float glass enterprises signaled a short on the inventory side; the continuous slight decline in the spot market and the stable recovery of the futures price made the spread side change from a strong short to neutral [7]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, each factor remained flat compared with the previous week, and the comprehensive signal this week remained neutral [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Decreased shipments from FMG and Rio Tinto and reduced arrivals at northern ports strengthened the long feedback on the supply side; decreased daily port clearance volume and steel mill consumption of domestic sintered ore powder maintained the short signal on the demand side; inventory accumulation at major national ports slightly strengthened the short feedback on the inventory side; the increase in the spot price center strengthened the long feedback on the spread side, and both the inventory and spread sides maintained a neutral signal [9]. Shanghai Lead - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.45%, the demand factor weakened by 0.44%, the spread factor decreased by 0.57%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.38%. The comprehensive signal this week remained short [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Reduced losses of SMM tax - free recycled lead and a lower ratio of waste battery prices to recycled refined lead prices maintained the short signal on the supply side; inventory reduction in LME and SHFE made the inventory side turn to a long feedback, maintaining a neutral signal; the narrowing of the near - far month discount and the expansion of the spot discount weakened the short feedback on the spread side, and the signal turned to neutral [9]. Sector - Specific Momentum and Structure - **Momentum and Structure Data**: The report provides momentum and structure data for different sectors, including the egg - related, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, agricultural products, equity index, and precious metals sectors. For example, the non - ferrous sector had a momentum sequence value of 0.06, a momentum cross - section value of 0.93, a term structure value of - 2.2, and a position - holding volume value of - 0.64 [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The listing of the monthly average price futures of three chemical products fills the gap in domestic average price risk management tools. The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are in a bearish pattern, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, and the monthly average price will also show the same trend. PVC monthly average price futures are expected to operate in the bottom range [1][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New Product Listing - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, with night trading. The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on that day [1] 2. Continuation of the Bearish Pattern in Plastics and Polypropylene - The decline in plastic and polypropylene futures prices is driven by three factors: weak cost support, new supply capacity release, and insufficient demand. The prices have been in a downward trend since late November and early December 2024, with a short - term rebound in the middle. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pressure of polyethylene and polypropylene is difficult to ease, and the prices are expected to rise first and then fall. The recommended strategies include short - selling at high levels, inter - period arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2604F; long PP2602F and short PP2604F), and different delivery method arbitrage (long L2602F and short L2602; long PP2602F and short PP2602) [3][4][6] 3. PVC Monthly Average Price Futures May Operate in the Bottom Range - PVC is in a pattern of high supply and low demand, with continuous inventory accumulation and high social inventory. The supply pressure is still large, and the production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the export may face pressure due to anti - dumping policies. It is expected that the monthly average price futures will operate in the bottom range [7][8]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续回调,国际金价跌破4000美元。中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识，美国和多 个国家也相继达成部分贸易协议,避险情绪有所降温,贵金属或将迎来月度级别调整构筑高位震荡平台，为 未来走势提供基础。贵金属中长期逻辑稳固,短期波动风险较高,建议耐心等待企稳后再参与机会。本周重 点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领导人峰会。 ★凯投宏观:下调黄金价格预期,预计到2026年底黄金价格将跌至每盎司3,500美元。 ★路透调查:预计2026年黄金均价为每盎司4275美元，白银均价为每盎司50美元。 ★菲律宾央行官员：现在是时候在黄金上获利了结。菲律宾央行 ...

(原油) 昨日布伦特12合约涨0.09%，有消息称本周日0PEC+会议将决定在12月进一步增产，此前原油因俄罗 斯制裁升级及中美贸易谈判积极信号而引发的乐观情绪受到抑制。原油市场中期供需宽松压力不 变，且考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们认为短期原油震荡偏强、 但反弹高度亦受限,策略方面再次关注原油空头逢高入场与虚值看涨期权相结合的组合。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。周末中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,短期风险偏好向好, 贯金属或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领 导人峰会。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (锌) 外盘低库存，伦锌继续偏强运行，锌锭现货出口窗口打开，国内贸易商和炼厂积极寻求出口，外盘 带动内盘跟涨。国内炼厂冬储在即,海外炼厂利润修复后存增产预期，11月内外矿TC齐转降，四季 度沪锌不做空头配置。短期消费偏弱，反弹动力来自出口和成本支撑，沪锌上方暂看2.3万元/吨压 力位。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，在中美商务谈判乐观气氛引导下，内外铜价逼近纪录位置。同时，联储再 次兑现降息动 ...

今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国CPI—(1)美国劳工部数据称,美国9月 CPI同比上涨3.0%,环比上涨0.3%,核心CPI同比上涨3.0%,环 比上涨0.2%。②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:数据"非常出色"，通胀正在放缓，美联储压力减 轻。③美国白宫:下个月可能无法公布通胀数据,为史上首次。 ★贸易协议——1美国与泰国签署关键矿物协议,并将维持对泰国19%的关税;②特朗普与巴西总统会晤,双 方将进行经贸谈判,巴方要求在谈判过程中暂停关税;3美国与马来西亚签署贸易协议和关键矿产协议; ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short - term volatile and bullish, but the rebound height is limited, with a strategy of combining short positions on crude oil when prices are high and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is driven by geopolitical factors but its upside space may be limited; low - sulfur fuel oil should not be overly bearish as its crack spread may be supported [2] - Asphalt: Short - term boost but upside space is restricted by weak demand and slow de - stocking in the medium and long term [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Short - term boost from fundamental improvement and strong crude oil [4] Core Views - Geopolitical risks and trade - war risk changes affect the oil market, and the short - term oil market is generally bullish but with limited upside [1] - Different products in the oil - related industry have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as geopolitics, production plans, and seasonal demand [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices rebounded from a low level, with Brent 12 contract up 7.09% and SC12 contract up 0.58% intraday [1] - Geopolitical risks have a turning point, and trade - war risk cooling adds to market optimism, but the impact of geopolitical fluctuations is limited [1] - Short - term crude oil is volatile and bullish, but the rebound height is limited, and a strategy of combining short positions on crude oil when prices are high and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors drive the upward trend of the crude - oil system, and high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong due to concerns about Russian exports [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil's price is dominated by macro - events, and its supply is expected to be more abundant, limiting the upside space [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation, but supply - side geopolitical factors and seasonal demand may support its crack spread [2] Asphalt - In November, the planned production of refineries nationwide decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [3] - Terminal demand is affected by temperature in the north and weather in the south, and the overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [3] - The short - term boost to BU is limited by weak "peak - season" demand and slow de - stocking in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, LPG futures fluctuated and were bullish [4] - External prices stabilized and rebounded, and supply decreased while demand increased [4] - The decline in port and refinery storage rates, along with strong crude oil, provides a short - term boost to LPG [4]