Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. Last week's lower - than - expected US inflation led traders to bet on a Fed rate cut in June. A Fed governor stated different rate - cut scenarios based on tariff levels, and Trump's erratic tariff policies highlighted the value of gold under a credit crisis [1] - Attention should be paid to the battle of the US dollar at the key level of 100 after hitting a three - year low, and caution should be exercised after the rapid rise of gold prices [1] Other Key Points - Trump is considering measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains from Mexico and recently assisted Apple CEO Cook. The US Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and will exit the tomato tariff suspension agreement with Mexico reached in 2019 [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said there is no evidence that sovereign investors are selling US assets, has tools to deal with bond - market fluctuations but is far from using them, and will interview candidates for the Fed chair's successor in the fall [2] - Israeli officials said there are still differences among parties on reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年04月15日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价维持震荡,布伦特06合约小幅收涨0.36%。美国宣布对部分电子产品进行对等关税豁 免后,市场对贸易战引发的经济衰退及油品需求冲击担忧进一步缓解,市场定价的年内美联储降息 次数快速收窄。昨日OPEC4月报分别将今明两年全球石油需求增速下调15万桶/天。本周市场仍以暴 跌后的震荡修复行情为主,关注周六美国与伊朗第二轮核谈进展。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,金价小幅回落。上周美国通胀超预期走低令交易员押注美联储六月开启降息,昨 日美联储理事称在大规模关税情景下,若出现显著的经济放缓,倾向于更早和更大幅度地降息,在 较小关税的情景下，降息可能会在下半年进行。特朗普关税政策的反复无常使得信用危机下黄金价 值凸显。关注美元在创造三年新低后在100关键位置的争夺，金价快速上涨后暂时保持漠懊。今日关 注美联储多位官员讲话。 【铜】 隔夜美盘铜价走高,美伦价差扩至1000美元,沪伦铜价相应震荡。市场仍高度关注关税博弈,芯片 半导体及消费电子类启动美国商务部调查,后续可能纳入行业关税。周内市场关注联储官员讲话。 短期 ...

| | | | Miller | ■仅知见 SDIC FUTURE | WE C. 28 NA H JM | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年04月14日 | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。螺纹供需继续小幅上升，库存延续缓慢去化态势，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷供需均有明显回落，库存 去化态势放缓。高炉整体延续复产态势，铁水产量继续上升。从下游行业看，内需整体依然度弱，3月钢材出口维持高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: Not specified [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as device maintenance, seasonal demand, trade policies, and cost changes, and their prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to macro - level impacts, trade market changes, and oil price performance [2][3][6] Summary by Category Methanol - After the inspection, domestic device operating rates increased significantly, and Iranian shipments recovered rapidly. Coastal imports are expected to return by the end of the month. With low inventories and pre - May Day downstream stocking demand, the inland market is likely to be strong. Although supply is expected to recover and there may be short - term shutdowns of olefin plants, low inventories provide support, and macro - level impacts should be focused on [2] Urea - Weekly production increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Agricultural demand decreased due to seasonal factors, and finished product sales slowed down, leading to some reduction in operating loads. Southern rice fertilization demand is expected to peak in late April but is currently affected by drought. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Polyolefins - Futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply is sufficient with limited maintenance, and demand from the film and wrapping film sectors is weak. Polypropylene has many planned maintenance devices, but downstream orders are insufficient, especially overseas orders [4] Styrene - The futures contract opened slightly lower and closed higher, and spot prices rose steadily. Maintenance devices increased, and port inventories decreased. The cost of crude oil and pure benzene stabilized in the short term but is expected to be weak overall [5] Polyester - PTA has low processing margins, and its driving force lies in cost. Attention should be paid to trade market changes and oil price performance. Ethylene glycol supply is expected to shrink while demand may decline, and prices will oscillate. Short - fiber exports may increase, but terminal exports are expected to decline, and processing margins have weakened. Bottle - chip supply and demand remain weak, and prices follow raw materials [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Maintenance devices increased, supply decreased, exports were good, and inventory was high. The narrowing profit of chlor - alkali integration provides some support, but the driving force is weak. Caustic soda showed strength. Industry profits are compressed, and enterprises are more inclined to maintain prices. Although operating rates are high, downstream and traders are not active in purchasing, and inventory is high [6] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices declined due to high positions and expanded delivery capacity. Inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Cost support limits the downside space, and attention should be paid to the 1100 - yuan support level and potential macro - stimulus policies. Soda ash oscillated strongly. Production remained high, and photovoltaic glass demand cooled. The impact of tariffs is limited, and supply pressure is high [7]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月14日 流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 大宗商品周报 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收跌5.10%，其中能化、有色金属和黑色跌幅 较大，分别下跌6.97%、4.60%和4.21%，农产品和贵金属微跌0.54%和 0.01%。 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为鸡蛋、豆一和生猪，涨幅分别为 6.66%、5.20%和3.50%；跌幅较大的品种为原油、焦煤和锡，跌幅分别为 12.77%、10.84%和10.54%。 资金方面，上周全市场规模下降，除贵金属外，各个板块都有小幅资金流出。 ●展望：特朗普对等关税带来的对于美国金融市场的冲击引发了股债市场的风 险传染后，使得其不得不推出对等关税的豁免90天政策。同时在周末又推出了 把智能手机、电脑和其他电子产品排除在对等关税之外的政策，并展开国家安全 贸易调查，但整体来看这些产品短期免受4月2号确定的超高对等关税的冲击。 美元的持续走弱在短期使得汇率稳定，而特朗普短期关税问题的弱化和对于国内 经济政策的预期，支撑恐慌交易缓解后短期市场修复性行情的延续。 贵金属方面，本周延续强势，黄金再创历史新高，政策层面成为主导因素： 美联储释 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 14 日 大类资产运行周报（20250407-20250411） 关税政策短期趋向缓和 美股大幅反弹 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -3.90% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.36% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.44% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.19% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.73% | | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -3.06% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 0.68% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 0.59% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合履报 2025年04月14日 【原油】 上周国际油价伴随着全球贸易战的极限博弈和阶段性缓和剧烈波动,布伦特06合约周废下跌2.2%, SC05含约节后补跌12.8%。EIA在4月《短期能源展望》中将今明两年的石油需求增速分别下调37万 桶/天、13万桶/天。我们此前持续提示的WT155-60美元/桶（对应布伦特60-65美元/橘、S0430- 470元/桶）成本支撑作用依然有效,但考虑到贸易战风险犹存、OPEC+增产速度加快后后续累降压 力仍在，油价超跌反弹空间暂不过分期待,短期或转为区间震荡行情。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属延续强势。上周美国CPI超预期走低令交易员加大对美联储降息押注,几乎完全定价6月 降息。特朗普关税政策的反复无常使得美元资产遭到地售,信用危机下黄金价值凸显。金价连续三 日大涨后保持遵慎,关注美元在创造三年新低后在100关键位置的争夺。 【铜】 上周五铜价延续反弹,市场继续观察美国对等关税博弈的缓和远象。近期美盘铜库存再次走高,显 示物流正条中到美国,LME0-3月现货升水扩至30美元。短线外盘风险缓和,但实际系统性冲击未结 束。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for oil prices remains effective, but due to risks such as trade wars and OPEC+ production increases, the space for a sharp rebound in oil prices is limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with different factors affecting the cracking spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils [3] - Today, asphalt prices rebounded following crude oil. The fundamentals of asphalt itself are affected by factors such as processing profits and refinery maintenance, and its price trend is influenced by crude oil in the short term [3] - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the contraction of chemical demand after the reshaping of the trade flow [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - EIA lowered the oil demand growth rate for this year and next year. The cost support for oil prices is still effective, but considering various risks, the short-term oil price may fluctuate within a range [2] Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with FU rising more than LU. The cracking spread of FU is supported by the tight supply of heavy oil resources, while the cracking spread of LU is under downward pressure due to increased supply and a decline in the diesel cracking spread in Singapore [3] Asphalt - Today, BU rebounded following crude oil. The processing profit of diluted asphalt for refineries is poor, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The second-quarter operating rate of major refineries is restricted by maintenance. The short-term price trend of asphalt is influenced by crude oil [3] LPG - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price. After the crude oil stabilizes, the driving force for the futures price to rebound is expected to increase [4]

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安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花:全球消费下调,贸易冲突仍主导短期行情 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 全球24/25年度棉花进口环比减少7.1万吨,其中中国进口下调6.6万吨至141.5万吨;全球出口下调8.1万吨,其 中巴西出口下调2.1万吨，美国出口下调2.2万吨，澳洲出口下调2.2万吨，土耳其出口上调4.3万吨。 全球24/25期末阵存环比上调11.5万吨，其中中国期末阵存上调9.8万吨，美国上调2.2万吨,澳洲上调2.1万 吨,巴西上调2.2万吨。报告总体偏空,但近期主导行情仍是全球贸易冲突,继续关注后续中美贸易的情况;基 本面方面关注北半球种植和天气情况。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 供需平衡表汇总。 > | | | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 全球棉花供需平衡表 单位:万吨 2023/24 | 2024/25-3月 | 2024/25-4 月 | | 月度变化 平度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 产量 | ...