| | | 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 | M | E | G | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250411：宽幅整理 | 交易日期（日） | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-02 | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121030.00 | 119060.00 | 129380.00 | 1,970.00 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121600.00 | 118950.00 | 129460.00 | 2,650.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121610.00 | 119040.00 | 129620.00 | 2,570.00 | | | 121680.00 | 119090.00 | 129760.00 | 2,590.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 121600.00 | 118950.00 | 1294 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/11 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/4/10 | 美元/桶 | 60.07 | 62.35 | -3.66% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/4/10 | 美元/桶 | 63.33 | 65.48 | -3.28% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/4/10 | 美元/吨 | 546.90 | 517.75 | 5.63% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/4/10 | | 美元/吨 | 653.00 | 619.50 | 5.41% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/4/10 | 美元/吨 | 732.00 | 699.00 | 4.72% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/4/10 | 元/吨 | 43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its low - level consolidation in the short term, with prices ranging from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. The price center of polysilicon may shift downward [1]. - For industrial silicon, although the supply has decreased after some capacity reduction in northern large - scale plants, the demand has not improved significantly, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains. For polysilicon, the self - disciplined production cuts and the rush - installation tide still support the price, but the subsequent demand may weaken [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The average prices of other regions also remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.47% to 9,555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: N - type dense material remained at 40 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feeding material remained at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained at 33.5 yuan/kg [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.13% to 42,190 yuan/ton [1]. Company News - **Daquan Energy**: The current industry inventory is about 400,000 tons. The company's inventory is less than two - month production. In Q4 2024, the company's polysilicon production was 34,000 tons and sales were 42,000 tons; the annual production was 205,000 tons and sales were 181,000 tons. It is expected that the Q1 2025 production will be 25,000 - 28,000 tons, and the annual production guidance is 110,000 - 140,000 tons [1]. - **GCL Technology**: In Q1, the EBITDA of the photovoltaic materials business reached 505 million yuan. The average cash cost of granular silicon in Q1 decreased from 27.14 yuan/kg in January - February to 27.07 yuan/kg [1]. Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to the limited change in overall supply and the decline in demand, the silicon price is expected to remain low in the short term. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Move the stop - profit point of long positions down to around 43,500 yuan/ton. Long positions established earlier can take profits on rallies. Consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread for inter - period strategies [1].

| m | 贵金属日评20250410:美联储官员担忧关税持久影响通胀,特朗普暂停多数国家对等关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-02 | 收盘价 | 719.22 | 728.14 | 733.60 | 8. 92 | -5. 46 | | | | | 成交重 | 559659.00 | 434172.00 | 527616.00 | -32, 043. 00 | 93, 444. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 193197.00 | 186814.00 | 213334.00 | 6, 383. 00 | -20, 137.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 15675.00 | 15675. 00 | 15675.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

沪铜日评20250410: 国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 近期走势 | 较昨日变动 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-08 | 2025-03-31 | 收盘价 | 72130 | 73360 | 79950 | -1, 230.00 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 215027 | 154163 | 197360 | -17,667.00 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 155202 | 203731 | 160954 | -5, 752. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | -11, 375. 00 | 97393 | 108768 | 137460 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 72330 | 73545 | -1, 215. 00 | 79945 | | | | | 沪铜基差 | 200 | 185 | -5 | 15.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 广州电解 ...

| | | | 碳 锌 8 评20250410:国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-07 | 2025-03-31 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 70000.00 | 70800.00 | 73920.00 | -800.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 70280.00 | 71060.00 | 74160.00 | -780.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 70540.00 | 71280.00 | 74240.00 | -740.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 70540.00 | 71280.00 | 74360.00 | -740.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 70280.00 | 71060.00 | 74160.00 | -780.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | | 成交量(手) | 150 ...

| 甲醇日评20250410: 关税部分暂停, 油价大涨或支撑甲醇 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 单位 | 2025/4/9 | 2025/4/8 | 指标 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2307.00 | 2346.00 | -1.66% | -39.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | -16.00 | 2352.00 | -0.68% | 2368.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2229.00 | 元/吨 | 2267.00 | -1.68% | -38.00 | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2490.00 | -35.00 | -1.41% | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2410.00 | 2430.00 | -20.00 | -0.82% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2520.00 | 2490.00 | -30 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250410: 宏观情绪反复 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 変化值 单位 4月9日 4月8日 (绝对值) (相对值) | | | | | 要化值 | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1751.00 1880.00 1760.00 | 1759.00 1880.00 1780.00 | -8.00 0.00 -20.00 | -0.45% 0.00% -1.12% | | UR05 | 尿素期货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1804.00 | 26.00 | 1.44% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1791.00 | 1772.00 | 19.00 | 1.07% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1910.00 | -30.00 | -1.57% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1870.00 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For lead, the fundamentals show that primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with increased output in March, but there may be a decline in April in Henan due to maintenance. The recycled lead market faces a shortage of waste batteries, and the overall price is still firm. The demand side is in the off - season, with limited support for lead prices. However, due to the US tariff policy change, lead prices may rebound, and short - term unilateral operations are recommended [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals indicate that smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, leading to an obvious upward trend in production. The demand side has different performances in different sectors. Recently, non - ferrous metals mainly follow macro - sentiment fluctuations. After the change in the US tariff policy, zinc prices may have a small rebound, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,450 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,410 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 0.21%. The沪伦铅价比值 was 8.80, down 0.57% [1]. - The沪铅基差 was 40 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 28.66 dollars/ton, down 0.10 dollars. The沪铅近月 - 沪铅连一 was - 45 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 54,274 hands, up 10.24%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 41,816 hands, down 2.12%. The成交持仓 ratio was 1.30, up 12.62%. The LME inventory was 235,600 tons, unchanged. The沪铅仓单库存 was 60,841 tons, down 1.37% [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,130 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. The期货主力合约收盘价 was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.64%. The LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 2,620 dollars/ton, up 2.22%. The沪伦锌价比值 was 8.37, down 3.78% [1]. - The沪锌基差 was 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 3.00 dollars/ton, up 8.61 dollars. The沪锌近月 - 沪锌连一 was 290 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 235,271 hands, down 9.67%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 75,249 hands, down 5.55%. The成交持仓 ratio was 3.13, down 4.37%. The LME inventory was 123,150 tons, unchanged. The沪锌仓单库存 was 7,606 tons, down 12.13% [1]. 3.3 Lead - related News - A newly - built large - scale recycled lead smelter in East China may start production between August and September this year as some equipment is still to be installed [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 29.16 dollars/ton, and the position was 153,812 hands, down 1,305 hands [1]. 3.4 Zinc - related News - Ivanhoe Mines announced that in Q1 2025, the Kipushi concentrator processed a record 151,000 tons of ore with an average feed grade of 32.5%, producing 43,000 tons of zinc in concentrate with a zinc grade of over 53%. The concentrator will continue to increase production in Q2 and is expected to complete the expansion plan by the end of Q3 2025 to reach an annual zinc production of 250,000 tons [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 12.15 dollars/ton, and the position was 218,013 hands, down 7,601 hands [1].