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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250410
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of the current US tariff policy, market risk aversion has increased, risk assets have continued to weaken, and oil prices have remained in a downward trend [2]. - In the second quarter, Asian PX plants will undergo concentrated maintenance, leading to a significant decline in supply, with the intensity of maintenance to be observed. It is expected that the market will shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in the second quarter [2]. - Currently, cost is the most important influencing factor. Even if the fundamentals improve, it will be difficult to reverse the situation. The PX CFR China price on April 9 was $699 per ton. The escalation of the US tariff policy may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, causing a narrow decline in international oil prices and squeezing the cost side of PX [2]. - Amid the escalation of trade frictions, the market is filled with a strong sense of fear of price drops. Industry players are mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The sales of downstream polyester products are lackluster, and the PTA market continues to decline. Although the PTA social inventory is at a neutral to high level compared to historical periods, there has been a slight decrease in inventory in the past month, and it is expected to see inventory reduction from April to May [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 215 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The cost - pricing logic continues to operate, and it is difficult to break away from the follow - up logic in the short term [2]. - Due to the impact of the tariff policy, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 9, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $62.35 per barrel, up 4.65% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.48 per barrel, up 4.23%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $517.75 per ton, down 3.63%. The spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $619 per ton, down 4.11%. The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $699 per ton, down 2.92% [1]. - **PTA**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,110 yuan per ton, down 4.33%; the settlement price was 4,144 yuan per ton, down 4.95%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,122 yuan per ton, down 3.96%; the settlement price was 4,156 yuan per ton, down 3.80%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,366 yuan per ton, down 4.07%. The CCFEI price index of purified terephthalic acid PTA for the domestic market was 4,150 yuan per ton, down 4.71%; the CCFEI price index for the external market on April 8 was $559.5 per ton, down 1.76%. The near - far month spread was 12 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan; the basis was 40 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan [1]. - **PX**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 5,724 yuan per ton, down 4.22%; the settlement price was 5,796 yuan per ton, down 4.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%; the settlement price was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 5,781 yuan per ton, down 2.08%. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China was $700 per ton, down 2.91%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $675 per ton, down 3.02%. The PXN spread was $181.25 per ton, down 0.82%; the PX - MX spread was $80 per ton, up 7.38%. The basis was 57 yuan per ton, up 129 yuan [1]. - **PR**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,378 yuan per ton, down 2.50%; the settlement price was 5,406 yuan per ton, down 2.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%; the settlement price was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69%; in the South China market, it was 5,450 yuan per ton, down 3.54%. The basis in the East China market was 42 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan; in the South China market, it was 72 yuan per ton, down 62 yuan [1]. - **Downstream**: On April 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 1.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.07%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,800 yuan per ton, down 2.16%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,750 yuan per ton, down 2.17%; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,230 yuan per ton, down 3.86%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 4.06%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69% [2]. Operating Conditions - On April 9, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.35%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 76.77%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester plants was 89.35%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle chip plants was 75.47%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.76%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On April 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 6 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 58%, up 14 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 44%, down 23 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in the South China are planned to undergo maintenance in the near future, which requires further attention [2].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:工业硅低位整理,多晶硅重心或有下移-20250410
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:38
| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250410:工业硅低位整理,多晶硅重心或有下移 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/10 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,950.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,510.00 | -0.42% | | | 基差(华东553#-期货主力) | | 元/吨 | 440.00 | 40.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 | | 元/千克 | 40.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 42,245.00 | -0.38% | | | 基差 | | 元/吨 | -2,245.00 | 160.00 | | | 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,950.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#(黄埔港)平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,950.00 | -0.50% | | | 不通氧5 ...
镍与不锈钢日评:偏弱整理-20250410
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the frequent policy adjustments by the Indonesian government on the nickel industry are yet to be implemented, and the复产 of the Bisie mine in the eastern Congo (Kinshasa) is expected to ease the supply tightness in the second quarter. However, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, which exerts some pressure on nickel prices. Considering the slight relief of macro - sentiment, the decline rate of nickel prices may slow down [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material side provides limited support for stainless - steel prices. After the gradual release of macro - negative factors, the decline rate of stainless - steel prices may slow down [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume was 260,036 lots (-1,707), and the open interest was 77,096 lots (-3,129). LME nickel rose 1.69%. The spot market trading activity was average, and the basis premium shrank [1]. - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. Some main production areas in Indonesia adjusted production, with reduced production schedules and a downward adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic refineries continued to incur losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary production schedules decreased; stainless - steel mills' production schedules were stable and improving; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: The previous trading day's stainless - steel main contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 152,297 lots (-35,634), and the open interest was 66,977 lots (-5,573). The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium shrank [1]. - **Supply Side**: Stainless - steel production schedules decreased slightly [1]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand gradually recovered [1]. - **Cost Side**: The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons (-6,300) [1]. Other Information - On April 8, LME nickel inventory was 202,900 tons, an increase of 630 tons (0.31%) from the previous day. In the recent week, it increased by 3,918 tons (1.97%), and in the recent month, it increased by 4,416 tons (2.22%) [1]. - On April 8, the long - position holdings of the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai nickel (total of all - month contracts) were 103,400 lots, and the short - position holdings were 113,900 lots, with a long - to - short ratio of 0.99. The net position was - 527 lots, an increase of 4,283 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - Alphamin Resources announced that its Bisie tin mine in eastern Congo (Kinshasa) would resume operation. Bisie is the world's third - largest tin mine, with a 2024 production of 17,323 tons of metallic tin. Benefiting from the Mpama South expansion project completed last year, the company originally planned to increase its annual production to 20,000 tons in 2025 [1].
宏源期货日刊-20250410
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is complex, with factors such as upstream costs, equipment maintenance, and geopolitical disputes affecting prices and supply - demand relationships. The market has seen price fluctuations, including large - scale drops and small - scale rebounds. There are concerns about the market due to factors like tariff policies and oil price trends. The supply - demand situation is expected to change in the long - term, with potential for inventory reduction and supply recovery [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Index and Cost - The mid - price of crude oil on April 10, 2025, was $755.37 per ton, up 3.63% from the previous value. The price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $826 per ton, unchanged from the previous value. The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,800 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of coal - based ethylene glycol production cost and other upstream costs are also presented, with some prices remaining stable and others showing changes [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber has changed, with the price index of polyester staple fiber increasing by 3.86% to 6,480 yuan per ton on April 9, 2025, and the price index of bottle - grade chips increasing by 72.69% [1]. 3.2 Equipment Maintenance - A 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang has started maintenance as planned. A 900,000 - ton/year plant in Dalian has postponed its maintenance plan due to factors such as profit. A 300,000 - ton/year coal - based ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has had a temporary shutdown for maintenance due to equipment problems. A 475,000 - ton/year plant in East China is expected to start maintenance, with the maintenance duration around 3 - 4 weeks [2]. 3.3 Market Transaction and Price Trends - On April 9, the ethylene glycol night - session futures market had a small - scale rise after a low - level consolidation. Some polyester factories participated in price - fixing. The market was affected by factors such as geopolitical disputes, with large - scale drops and small - scale rebounds. The outer - market ethylene glycol had a large - scale rise, with the contract rising to a premium of around $888 - 889 per ton. Some trading transactions were made at around $459 - 469 per ton [2]. - The trading volume on a certain day was 363,600 lots, with the closing price at 5,059 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.54%. The market has concerns due to tariff policies and oil price drops, which have affected the cost support of ethylene glycol futures [2]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation - The supply of ethylene glycol may be affected by equipment maintenance, and in the long - term, there is a possibility of inventory reduction as demand is expected to turn weak and supply is expected to recover. The production and sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers are sluggish, with the production and sales rate of polyester filaments being 6% - 8% [2]. - The implementation of tariff policies will be a key factor affecting the market. If the policies are strictly enforced, it will have a significant impact on the supply and demand of ethylene glycol, especially on imports from the United States [2].
原油超跌引发商品市场重新定价能源化工:MEG
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 12:34
原油超跌引发商品市场重新定价 能源化工-MEG 宏源期货研究所 王江楠 010-82295006 从业资格证号:F03108382 投资咨询证号:Z0021543 1 www.hongyuanqh.com 一、主要观点 主要逻辑 盘面走势:节前冲高回落 3 本周受聚酯工厂集中减产计划影响,乙二醇需求存减弱预期,周初 乙二醇价格震荡回落,但随后伴随原油价格反弹以及乙二醇检修计 划增加提振,乙二醇价格止跌反弹冲高。然而周四受美国关税加征 带来的冲击,乙二醇市场再度止涨回落。 下周预测:成本端,关税政策出台叠加OPEC+增产,原油进入超跌 行情,需等待利空消化。供应端,合成气制乙二醇装置停车及检修 影响,乙二醇供应端出现了超预期的缩量。需求端,部分织造企业 也表示对后市行情不乐观,不排除后面可能减少开机台数应对新订 单体量下降,外贸需求受关税政策打击。港口库存方面,预计4月 乙二醇可实现去库但整体幅度表现一般。 综合来看,成本支撑坍塌,需求遭受重创。预计运行区间为4050- 4250元/吨运行,可逢高抛空。 二、盘面及现货情况 数据来源:Wind 5 周内成交70.12万手,持仓29.34万手(-3.22万手) 4 ...
玉米:宏观不确定性增加,中期谨慎看涨
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 06:14
宏源期货有限公司 玉米:宏观不确定性增加,中期谨慎看涨 肖锋波(F3022345)(Z0012557) 目录 第三部分 未来展望 1 第一部分:行情回顾 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价(美分/蒲式耳) CBOT玉米期货和期权:管理基金净多持仓(手) -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 • 上周CBOT玉米价格震荡偏强运行,截至4月7日,CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价为464.5美分/蒲式耳,周环 比上涨1.47%。管理基金净多持仓继续减少,截至4月1日,净多持仓56757手,周环比减少17850手。 • ...
铅锌日评:宏观扰动,铅价跟随回落,基本面偏弱+宏观利空,沪锌偏弱运行-20250409
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 06:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is affected by macro disturbances and weak fundamentals, with the lead price expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] - The zinc market has a weak fundamental situation with increasing supply and demand in the recovery stage. Affected by macro factors, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625.00 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,540.00 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,870.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.84, down 0.72% [1] - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 49,232.00 lots, down 45.52%; the open interest was 42,720.00 lots, down 3.63%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 1.15, down 43.47% [1] - The LME lead inventory was 235,725.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 61,687.00 tons, down 0.20% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with a 23 - percentage - point increase in electrolytic lead production in March. Some smelters in Henan will enter maintenance in April, and the production may decrease month - on - month [1] - In the secondary lead market, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the overall price of waste batteries is still firm. If downstream enterprises resume production as scheduled this week and smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, the finished product inventory of secondary lead will decline again [1] - On the demand side, the post - Spring Festival restocking peak did not appear, and it is currently the off - season, with limited support for the lead price [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement and the decline of the external market during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the lead price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] Zinc 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,470.00 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,295.00 yuan/ton, down 1.46%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,553.00 US dollars/ton, down 2.35%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.73, up 0.92% [1] - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 260,461.00 lots, down 18.40%; the open interest was 79,667.00 lots, down 16.07%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 3.27, down 2.77% [1] - The LME zinc inventory was 125,825.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 8,656.00 tons, down 10.09% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The tight supply of zinc concentrates is expected to improve, the cost - side support has weakened, and the smelters' profit and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increasing production [1] - On the demand side, the galvanizing sector was mostly in normal production during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, with little impact on production; the die - casting zinc alloy sector's production decreased due to the holiday, but the actual orders were okay; the zinc oxide sector's production increased due to improved demand and fewer holiday - taking enterprises [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the continuous rise of TC, the weakening of cost - side support, the increasing supply of zinc ingots, and the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1]
碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周增加-20250409
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 05:51
供给端,天齐锂业旗下格林布什锂矿3.万吨湿法项目或于25年10月投产后总产能将达到2.1万吨年,引导国产(进口)跑矿价格震荡趋降下降),或使国内智精矿4月生产(进口)显环比增加(增加); 中国碳酸密气舒汗工氧(生产量)疫上周下降(增加),中国碳酸图工业与电池段)月生产量或环化简加/智加、增加而供给预期偏检, 雅保成磷塑盐产线将于2.5年6月前开启检验,紫金塑石混碳制 备电池级硬破塑2.5万吨产销将于2.5年12月建成接产,外购锂挥石和锂云母精矿产液酸锂目度现金生产成本分别为75000和78000元吨左右致生产利润为负、中国锂晖石与锂云母及盐湖产碳酸锂 体化季度现金生产成本分别为3000年[63000]及1900元 吨左右致生产利润为正:进口窗口关闭,巍锋锂山位于阿根廷Mariana梁盐湖项目一期均万吨氯化银产能2月正式投产,或使中国碳酸煌月进 【量硕比增加: 中国碳酸锂日度贸论交割利润为负,使广期所碳酸塑库存量较上周增加: 中国碳酸锂社会冶烧厂、贸易商、下游库存量较上同增加/箱加、减少、增加, 中国冶炼(芯)花氢氧, 化锂目度现金生产成本为66900(7000)元/吨目生产利润为正(负),海南矿业氢氧化锂)乙 ...
贵金属日评:对等关税表面可谈判实际要价高,旧的政治经济格局或将渐演变-20250409
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 05:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs has triggered global trade conflicts and potential liquidity crises. However, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of European fiscal easing, coupled with central banks' continuous gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to support and resistance levels of different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Gold - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On April 8, 2025, the closing price was 719.22 yuan/gram, up 1.04 yuan from the previous day and down 17.08 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 559,347, and the open interest was 191,317 [1]. - **Shanghai Gold Spot (T+D)**: The closing price was 713.23 yuan/gram, up 4.17 yuan from the previous day and down 18.28 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 69,454, and the open interest was 199,052 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 2,998.30 dollars/ounce, down 0.50 dollars from the previous day and down 159.10 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 191,636, and the open interest was 2,435 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,014.75 dollars/ounce, up 0.65 dollars from the previous day and down 99.70 dollars from the previous week [1]. Silver - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: On April 8, 2025, the closing price was 7,617 yuan/ten grams, up 66 yuan from the previous day and down 749 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 1,025,904, and the open interest was 345,267 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Spot (T+D)**: The closing price was -725 yuan/ten grams, up 83 yuan from the previous day and down 8,414 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 996,322, and the open interest was 3,960,914 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 29.75 dollars/ounce, down 5.02 dollars from the previous day and down 0.34 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 71,906, and the open interest was 126,137 [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 478.60 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 61.62 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.23 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were 73,360 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 8,732 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,348.4351, the S&P 500 was 4,982.7700, and other major stock indexes also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Interest Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2600%, and the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 102.9560, and the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.2038 [1]. 3.2 Important Information Gold News - Hedge fund tycoons are discussing the tariff formula. Trump's formula is four times wrong, which explains the sharp drop in US stocks. Trump's asking price for the world is extremely high, and the US has a trade deficit of over 1 trillion dollars with the world [1]. - Ray Dalio believes that what matters is not the tariff but the collapse of the old order [1]. Policy and Economic Information - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the Senate passed a budget reconciliation bill, which clears the way for the extension of Trump - era tax cuts and a significant increase in the debt ceiling. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and September, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction [1]. - Trump's reciprocal tariffs have increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts in June, July, September, and December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there is an expectation of 2 - 3 more interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England maintained the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, and the market expects 2 - 3 more interest rate cuts before December 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and the market expects another interest rate hike around July [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the potential impact of Trump's tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and other factors, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].
煤焦日报-20250409
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 05:45
宏源期货煤焦日报 【夜盘复盘】 期货: JM2505收于927.5元/吨, 12505收于1537.5元/吨。2505合约焦化利润237.5元/吨,较前一日涨0.3元/吨。 切货:山西最优交割品仓单915元/吨,唐山蒙5仓单978元,金泉豪5精煤仓单1155元/吨,焦煤最优交割品仓单915元/吨,日照港湿泉 焦炭仓单1458元/吨,山西湿熄焦炭仓单1436元/吨,邢台干熄焦炭仓单1450元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、国务院总理李强8日同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话。李强表示,双方要推动新一次中欧战略、经贸、绿色、数字领域高层对话尽 早举行。中国今年的宏观政策充分考虑了各种不确定因素,也有充足的储备政策工具,完全能够对冲外部不利影响,对保持自身经济持 续健康发展充满信心。中国将继续坚定不移扩大开放,同包括欧盟在内的世界各国加强合作,分享发展机遇。 2、外交部、商务部回应美方威胁升级对华关税指出,中方对此坚决反对。外交部强调,如果美方执意打关税战、贸易战,中方必将奉陪 到底。商务部表示,如果美方升级关税措施落地,中方将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/9 ...