宏源期货有限公司 玉米：多空因素交织，短期保持震荡 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 1 第一部分：行情回顾 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价（美分/蒲式耳） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 CBOT玉米期货和期权:管理基金净多持仓（手） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 • 上周CBOT玉米价格偏强运行，截至4月11日，CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价为489.5美分/蒲式耳，周环比 上涨6.76%。管理基金净多持仓继续减少，截至4月8日，净多持仓5 ...

沪铜日评20250415: 国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-04-14 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-03 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 76310 | 75230 | 78860 | 1,080.00 | | | | 成交重(手) | 115148 | 142864 | 114839 | -27,716.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 136741 | 139941 | 187164 | -3, 200. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 89369 | 86564 | 125960 | 2, 805. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 沪铜县差 | 76145 | 74550 -680 | 79150 | 1, 595. 00 515.00 | | | | | -165 | | 290 | | | | (现货与期货) | 厂州电解铜现货开贴水 | 15 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]

| | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | | | 前一交易日,UR震荡走弱,收于1816。昨日盘面有一定走弱,一定程度上受市场传 | | | 言印度招标低于预期的影响,不过当前国内尿素出口并未放开,影响价格的更多还是 国内需求状况。推荐逢低做多的理由主要有两个:一是绝对价格处于低位,二是旺季 | | | 有需求预期,上游去库压力也不大。策略建议:逢低做多。(观点评分:0) | | | 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正, | | | 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行 | | | 期货投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有,未经书面许可,任 | | 免责声明 | 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为宏源期货,且不 | | | 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期 | | | "台经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250415: 区间震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 指标 | | 2025/4/14 | 2025/4/11 | | | | | | | 单位 | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2346.00 | 2384.00 | -38.00 | -1.59% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2376.00 | 2392.00 | -16.00 | -0.67% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2286.00 | 2310.00 | -24.00 | -1.04% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2440.00 | 2485.00 | -45.00 | -1.81% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2530.00 | 2490.00 | 40.00 | 1.61% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2475.00 | 2515.00 | -40.00 | ...

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250415：震荡回升 | 交易日期（日） | 2025-04-14 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-07 | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 122330.00 | 120500.00 | 119000.00 | 1,830.00 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 123090.00 | 121300.00 | 118640.00 | 1,790.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 123180.00 | 121370.00 | 118770.00 | 1,810.00 | | | 123300.00 | 121430.00 | 118910.00 | 1,870.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 123090.00 | 121300.00 | 1186 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead market is expected to experience wide - range consolidation in the short term. The fundamentals show that the resumption of production of primary and secondary lead is progressing steadily. With the decline in lead prices, most battery companies are pricing at low points, and spot transactions are improving. The impact of tariff policies on the macro - level is weakening, and market trading is shifting from the macro to the fundamentals. Continued attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market is expected to have range - bound consolidation in the short term. Recently, non - ferrous metals have mainly fluctuated with macro - sentiment. As the market digests the pessimistic sentiment, zinc prices have rebounded from lows. The fundamentals show that refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and production is increasing. Downstream industries are actively resuming production after the holiday, and some enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 1,914 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.79, down 1.00% [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.83%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,660 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 2,651.5 dollars/ton, up 0.40%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.55, down 0.59% [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Lead**: From April 5th to April 11th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 62.01%, up 0.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 61.18%, down 1.28 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.25%, up 3.04 percentage points. In March, the output of electrolytic lead increased significantly, but in April, some refineries in Henan entered maintenance, and primary lead output may decrease. Secondary lead refineries faced losses and raw material constraints, leading to a reduction in operating rates. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and support for lead prices is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: From April 5th to April 11th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 63.74%, up 3.44 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 58.85%, up 4.75 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 61.61%, up 0.96 percentage points. Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising, with production increasing. After the holiday, downstream industries are actively resuming production, and some enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices [1]. 3.3 Market Trading - **Lead**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 32,358 lots, down 47.66%; the open interest was 34,875 lots, down 5.15%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.93, down 44.82% [1]. - **Zinc**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 133,346 lots, down 40.96%; the open interest was 64,481 lots, down 6.75%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 2.07, down 36.69% [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **Lead**: LME inventory was 247,425 tons with 0.00% change; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 56,132 tons, down 4.41% [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory was 119,350 tons with 0.00% change; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,957 tons, down 0.33% [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250414：工业硅低位整理，多晶硅重心或有下移 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/4/14 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | 指标 | | 元/吨 9,950.00 0.00% | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 9,455.00 -1.05% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 495.00 100.00 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 元/千克 40.00 0.00% | N型多晶硅料 | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 41,835.00 -0.84% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 -1,835.00 355.00 | 基差 | | 元/吨 9,950.00 0.00% | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 9,950.00 0.00% | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 9,900.00 0.00% | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 10,150.00 0.00% | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | | | 10,050.00 0.00 ...

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250414：震荡回升 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-03 | 交易日期（日） | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 120500.00 | 121030.00 | 127420.00 | -530.00 | 121300.00 | 121600.00 | 127330.00 | -300.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 121370.00 | 121610.00 | 127480.00 | -240.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | | | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 121430.00 | 121680.00 | 127690.00 | -250.00 | 121300.00 | 121600.00 | 127330.0 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/14 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/4/11 | 美元/桶 | 61.50 | 60.07 | 2.38% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/4/11 | 美元/桶 | 64.76 | 63.33 | 2.26% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/4/11 | 美元/吨 | 544.90 | 546.88 | -0.36% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/4/11 | | 美元/吨 | 653.50 | 653.50 | 0.00% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/4/11 | 美元/吨 | 734.00 | 731.00 | 0.41% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/4/11 | 元/吨 | 435 ...