1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The spot price's rigidity provides strong support for the futures price, and with the policy entering a rational - driven stage, the futures price will fluctuate in a wide - spread premium range and run cautiously strong [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to show high - level oscillations. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,580 yuan/ton, a 0.73% increase. The trading volume was 36,522 lots, and the open interest was 136,801 lots, with a net decrease of 5,596 lots [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a 1.05% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon production in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and in September, production will enter the stage of production - limit and sales - control policies. Downstream actively replenishes inventory to buffer the shrinking pressure of terminal demand. The domestic photovoltaic power station installation volume in July was only 11GW [4]. 3.2. Market News - On August 25, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,730 lots, a net increase of 190 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - As of August 22, many photovoltaic listed companies released their first - half "report cards". Some photovoltaic component manufacturers showed signs of performance improvement. The cumulative photovoltaic installation volume from January to July 2025 reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installation volume from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installation volume in July was only 11GW, a 47.7% year - on - year decrease, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Polyolefin [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team including researchers for polyolefin, crude oil, PTA, etc. [4] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | Highest | Lowest | Change | Change Rate | Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 22230 | 22375 | 22455 | 22210 | 115 | 0.52% | 38685 | -4326 | | Plastic 2605 | 22220 | 22395 | 22465 | 22200 | 150 | 0.67% | 105259 | -2533 | | Plastic 2509 | 22210 | 22390 | 22445 | 22185 | 160 | 0.72% | 38208 | 1139 | | PP2601 | 16790 | 16845 | 16895 | 16755 | 85 | 0.51% | 27975 | -13190 | | PP2605 | 16815 | 16865 | 16900 | 16765 | 100 | 0.60% | 47516 | 3616 | | PP2509 | 16825 | 16870 | 16905 | 16785 | 100 | 0.60% | 10131 | 1064 | [5] Specific Contracts Quotes - L2601 closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (0.51%), with 260,000 lots traded and positions decreasing by 364 to 393,878 lots - PP2601 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.43%), with positions increasing by 3197 to 468,800 lots [6] Group 4: Market Analysis - Futures showed a warm and oscillating trend, supporting the market atmosphere. Traders adjusted their quotes following the factory prices, with some quotes slightly rising to actively sell goods, but downstream market entry intention was low and actual transactions were mediocre - A 450,000 - ton new device of Ningbo Daxie Phase II Line 1 is planned to be put into operation at the end of August, and Line 2 (also 450,000 tons) is planned for September. Although the upstream supply cannot be completely eliminated in the short - term, the demand side is gradually transitioning to the peak season, and the overall downstream operating rate is expected to increase - Concerns from the policy side due to over - capacity in the chemical industry, and positive macro news over the weekend supported a warm sentiment, leading to a continuous rebound in polyolefins [6] Group 5: Industry News and Data Inventory Data - On August 25, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton increase (2.74%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 775,000 tons [9] Price Data - PE market prices continued to rise. LLDPE prices in North China were 7220 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous working day. Downstream product profit was average, reducing the acceptance of propylene prices, and the demand support for propylene weakened - The domestic PP market partially showed a warm adjustment, with an adjustment range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton, in East China 6920 - 7020 yuan/ton, and in South China 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton [9]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - Cotton [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Powell's dovish speech boosts market expectations for a September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar index boosts the performance of the commodity market. The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang cotton area is in the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the new cotton purchase is awaited for guidance. The speculation of interest rate cuts and the expectation of a buying spree boosts the price of Zhengzhou cotton, and attention should be paid to the performance of the previous high pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 1,5240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had fair recent transactions, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it was still average. Cotton yarn prices were strong and rising steadily. The demand for cotton grey cloth had not improved significantly, and the fabric mills' shipment speed did not continue to accelerate [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, the weekly US cotton export sales data weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton - growing areas increased, and the CFTC fund net long position remained at a low level. In the domestic market, there were rumors of more pre - sales of new cotton, and the expectation of a buying spree at the time of listing had increased, but the expected stable and increasing output also brought pressure in the long - term. The finished cotton yarn inventory continued to decline slightly, and the fabric mills' shipments were not as good as those of the yarn mills [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced matters related to the application for the processing trade import quota of preferential tariff rates outside the cotton tariff quota in 2025. The total quota for the sliding - scale duty processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 was 200,000 tons, and it would be issued on a contract - based application basis. As of August 21, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 15,474 bales. As of August 19, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.56% (a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points) [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various cotton futures spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][26]

Report Overview - Industry: Pig farming - Date: August 26, 2025 - Report Type: Daily report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening remains low. The expectation of second - round fattening at low prices has increased, which may reduce the pressure on farmers to sell pigs. Although current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with the start of school - related stocking in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually recover. - On the supply side, the planned pig出栏 volume in August is expected to increase significantly compared to July, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens remains high. However, the weight pressure on farmers has decreased recently. In the long term, pig出栏 is likely to maintain a slight increase. - Overall, in the spot market, demand from terminals and second - round fattening may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a possible low - level rebound in spot prices. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract may follow the spot price with a small - scale bottom - rebound. Contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak - demand season, and with a relatively larger increase in demand compared to supply, along with positive factors such as pork storage, high - quality development initiatives, and environmental protection efforts, the prices are expected to rebound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 25th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 13,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from last Friday. The total open interest of the index decreased by 3,810 lots to 182,698 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 25th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on August 25th was 140,800 heads, down 1,100 heads from the previous day but up 400 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short - term, spot prices may rebound from lows, and near - month futures contracts may follow the spot price. Peak - demand season contracts are expected to rebound due to relatively larger demand growth [9]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of August 15th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 36 yuan/head. The average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 52 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - **Price and Sales Volume**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15th was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week. The planned pig出栏 volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual出栏 volume in July [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of the slaughter sample in the week of August 15th was 1.6335 million heads, a 1.88% increase from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume was 138,446 heads, a 0.96% increase from the previous week [14]. - **Average Weight**: As of the week of August 15th, the average weight of nationwide pig出栏 was 127.82 kg, a 0.02% increase from the previous week and a 1.31% increase from the same period last year [14].

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The mid - term view on domestic soybean meal is to be bullish after corrections. The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is likely to rise steadily due to factors such as the possible increase in the marginal price of Brazilian soybeans, the potential import gap, and the blocked import of Canadian rapeseed. Although the current situation of soybean pods in the US is in line with the high - yield forecast of USDA, the weather still has variables, and the weather topic still exists. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as bean粕2601, bean粕2509, and bean粕2511 all increased. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied among different contracts. The foreign - market US soybean futures contracts rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. [6] - **US Situation**: The ProFarmer crop field survey shows that the number of soybean pods in most major US producing areas is historically high, which is in line with USDA's high - yield forecast. However, about 9% of the US soybean area is currently in drought, much higher than 3% last week, and the rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks. [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal showed a trend of rising and then falling last week, affected by rumors of Sino - US contacts and the downward adjustment of Brazilian premium quotes. In the medium term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans unchanged, China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter, supplemented by some from Argentina, and there may be a small import gap to be filled by state - reserve auctions. [6] 3.2 Industry News - ProFarmer predicts that the average corn yield in the US will reach a record 182.7 bushels per acre, with a total output of 16.204 billion bushels; the average soybean yield is also expected to reach a record 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels. The US EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications, rejected 28 small - refinery exemption requests, and plans to issue a supplementary proposal for the 2026 - 2027 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given content. [12][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp is in a low-level oscillatory adjustment due to limited cost guidance, abundant supply, and the anticipation of peak season demand [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5402 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5100 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low-end price rising 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco Company announced a new round of August wood pulp FOB prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton; natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton; hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June quotes. According to PPPC data, the chemical commodity pulp shipments from the world's 20 major pulp-producing countries in June increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% year-on-year and hardwood pulp up 10.1% year-on-year. According to UTIPULP data, the European wood pulp inventory in July 2025 was 683,200 tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month and an 8.7% increase year-on-year; the European wood pulp consumption was 814,200 tons, a 6.8% increase month-on-month and a 2.1% decrease year-on-year. The total pulp imports in China in July were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month-on-month [8] 3.2行业要闻 - On August 21st, Nine Dragons Paper announced that its estimated annual profit as of June 30, 2025, would be between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, a 165% - 190% increase from last year's 794 million yuan. This profit increase was mainly due to increased sales and a significant decrease in raw material costs compared to the product price decline, driving up gross profit. Additionally, the company issued $400 million in perpetual capital securities in June 2024, and the attributable profit for the holders of these securities this year was approximately 400 million yuan. The estimated attributable profit for the company's equity holders this year is between 1.7 billion and 1.9 billion yuan, a 126% - 153% increase from last year's 751 million yuan. The final performance announcement is expected to be released before the end of September 2025 [9]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 25 日，万得全 A 跳空高开后震荡上行，午间有所回落，随后再度走高， 收涨 1.80%，超 6 成个股上涨；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 2.08%、2.09%、1.89%、1.56%，中小盘股表现更优。指数 期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.79%、1.46%、 0.87%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 1: Market Review Futures Contract Data - **DCE M2601**: Pre-settlement price was 3128, opening at 3116, reaching a high of 3116, a low of 3079, and closing at 3088, down 40 or 1.28%. Trading volume was 1,278,955, with an open interest of 2,000,115, a decrease of 58,947 [6]. - **DCE M2509**: Pre-settlement price was 3088, opening at 3079, high of 3079, low of 3033, and closing at 3041, down 47 or 1.52%. Trading volume was 110,869, open interest was 182,385, down 44,763 [6]. - **DCE M2511**: Pre-settlement price was 3107, opening at 3081, high of 3094, low of 3048, and closing at 3055, down 52 or 1.67%. Trading volume was 128,296, open interest was 559,890, down 1,897 [6]. External Market and Weather Factors - The US soybean futures contract on the external market rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. ProFarmer started its annual crop field inspection this week. Feedback on soybeans showed that the pod numbers in most major producing areas were historically high, in line with the USDA's high-yield forecast for this year. However, weather is still variable. Currently, about 9% of the US soybean area is in drought, up from 3% last week, and rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks [6]. Group 2: Industry News ProFarmer Forecasts - In 2025, the average number of soybean pods in Illinois is expected to be 1479.22, compared to 1419.11 in the 2024 crop inspection. In Iowa's D1 region, it's expected to be 1279.25 (1108.76 in 2024), in D4 region 1376.15 (1254.09 in 2024), and in D7 region 1562.54 (1366.22 in 2024) [9]. USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending August 14, total US soybean export sales increased by 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Current market-year sales decreased by 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four-week average, while the market expected a range from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 300,000 tons. Next market-year sales increased by 1.1426 million tons, higher than the expected range of 400,000 - 1 million tons. Export shipments were 517,900 tons, down 3% from the previous week but up 9% from the four-week average. New sales for the current market year were 136,500 tons, and for the next market year were 1.1454 million tons [8][9][10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as the ex-factory price of soybean meal, basis of the M09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][18]