行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 12 日 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 11 日乙二醇期货主力合約 2509 开市 4393，最高 4421，最低 4382，结算 4404， 收盘 4414，较前一交易日结算价上涨 25。总量 93980 手，持仓 199564 手。短期 乙二醇成本及供需端支撑力度较低，宏观层面受政策端不确定性影响，市场参与 者多谨慎观望，预计短期乙二醇现货价格或维持偏弱走势。 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F030 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined, with the 2509 contract dropping 3.02%, the 2510 contract falling 2.69%, and the 2511 contract decreasing 1.62% [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.18 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core View - The egg price dropped significantly last week, and the supply pressure this year is large. The spot price in August is expected to have a second wave of increase, but the upper limit has been lowered [8] - The futures market has factored in the expectation of a second - wave increase in the peak season. The 09 contract still has a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price [8] Operation Suggestions - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week, the futures may be slightly stronger, and the basis may be narrowed by the way of spot price rising and futures price stabilizing [8] - Long - position investors can appropriately participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts, but should operate in stages and not be overly greedy [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - In July, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024 [9] - The chicken culling volume has been gradually decreasing since June, and the current average age of culled chickens is 506 days [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [14][17][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 11th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and closed down. The highest price was 14,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,115 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The total open interest of the index increased by 1,951 lots to 177,891 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 11th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have increased slightly. On August 11, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 139,000 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 1,800 heads from a week ago [9]. - Supply: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual slaughter volume in July. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is high, the slaughter progress is fast, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9]. Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current slaughter enthusiasm is okay. At the same time, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract follows the spot market and fluctuates weakly. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may fluctuate strongly. Domestic anti - involution initiatives, high - quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts are beneficial to the long - term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on production capacity later [9]. Group 3: Industry News - No specific content provided, only chart information about breeding profit, breeding cost, etc. [12] Group 4: Data Overview - Breeding Profit: As of August 7, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/head [14]. - Piglet Price: In the week of August 7, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - Sows Inventory: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 6.71% [14]. - Planned Slaughter Volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from July [14]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of August 7, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.27% [14]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season in the spot market has appeared, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased decline. The market lacks a coordinated price - supporting atmosphere, and the spot price of freight has likely reached its peak. Freight rates are expected to enter a downward channel in August. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to grasp the downward trend and short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the peak season has passed. This week, the SCFIS has further declined with an increased decline. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes have been decreasing. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. Considering the large impact on foreign trade and the relatively high level of运力 supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year [8] - Operation Suggestion: The main 10 - contract has a deep discount. The market may have a game on the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. Most route market freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the comprehensive index. On August 8th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9] - Trade Data: In the first 7 months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. However, future China - EU trade may face greater competition pressure [9] - Route Freight Rates: On August 8th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period. The market situation of the Mediterranean route was basically the same as that of the European route, with a slight decline in the spot booking price [10] - International Incidents: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. The international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Index | August 11, 2025 | August 4, 2025 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.7% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.2% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides data on the trading of multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on August 11, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international trade - currency system restructuring and reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the short - term, London gold will continue to move in a range waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage when silver's upward momentum fades [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - More Fed officials worry about the US job market and support rate cuts, which weakens the US dollar and supports precious metal prices. But the potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine war and the clarification of no import tariffs on gold and silver weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold pulled back to around $3360 per ounce overnight, while silver was slightly stronger due to China's anti - involution policy expectations. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies. London gold may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated greatly in July. The gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and economic conditions. Gold's volatility has increased, and in the third quarter, pay attention to the impact of US economic and inflation conditions on Fed policies. It is expected that London gold will continue to move in a range in the short - term. Long - minded investors can participate with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Commerce Department allows Nvidia to export H20 chips to China, and Nvidia and AMD will pay 15% of their Chinese chip sales revenue to the US government [18]. - Trump will meet Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, and the White House is considering inviting Zelensky. European leaders welcome the meeting but emphasize the need to pressure Moscow [18]. - Many Fed officials are worried about the labor market and suggest rate cuts in September. However, some officials think it's too early to commit to rate cuts due to upcoming key data and expected inflation rise [19]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers opposed it, indicating that consecutive rate cuts may be near the end [19].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,985 yuan/ton, with a gain of 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4] Outlook - The transaction price range of N-type refeed materials was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. The futures and spot prices were rigidly supported by the policy. Short - term declines were mostly stage adjustments. The commodity rebound and the daily limit in the same sector provided emotional stimulation and policy imagination [4] - Recently, the开工 rate of rising - price varieties has rebounded significantly. The supply - demand contradiction has not intensified, but the increase in polysilicon prices has not been transmitted to components and terminal power stations. The fundamentals, although not the short - term dominant factor, also restricted the price increase [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which could meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased to about 52GW. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose. Therefore, short - term emotional fermentation might test the resistance level, and the overall trend would be mainly wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 8, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,700 lots, a net increase of 1,080 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price continued its rebound trend, with the Si2511 closing at 9000 yuan/ton, up 4.83%. The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. The Si2511 closed at 9000 yuan/ton, with a 4.83% increase, a trading volume of 662196 lots, and an open interest of 271943 lots, a net increase of 33258 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, and the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The weekly output of industrial silicon increased to 8.35 tons (37 tons monthly) due to the resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang. The demand increase was smaller than the supply increase. The production schedule of polysilicon in August would increase to 12.50 tons. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 11, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50760 lots, a net increase of 420 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3560.9 million tons of coal and lignite in July, a month - on - month increase of 257.2 million tons or 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25730.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI主力开盘价63.85美元/桶，收盘价63.35美元/桶，最高价64.58美元/桶，最低价62.77美元/桶，涨跌幅-0.83%，成交量29.30万手；Brent主力开盘价66.42美元/桶，收盘价66.32美元/桶，最高价67.22美元/桶，最低价65.53美元/桶，涨跌幅-0.17%，成交量37.53万手；SC主力开盘价494.5元/桶，收盘价489.4元/桶，最高价497.5元/桶，最低价488.1元/桶，涨跌幅-1.41%，成交量13.57万手 [6] - 本周国际油价因美俄可能对话及原油需求无明显起色持续回落，美俄领导人会谈影响或偏短期，俄罗斯原油出口途径完备，制裁影响偏短期 [6] - 截至1日当周，美国汽油表需低于5年均值，旺季汽油消费未显著回升，油消费增速转正但表现仍弱，美国旺季出行消费低于预期，成品油消费不乐观 [6] - 今年美国旺季消费无明显起色，美俄谈判对油价影响偏短期，若美国对俄油征收二级关税，或为空单入场时机 [7] Group 3: Industry News - 瑞银预计油价将跌至低于此前预期水平，因南美石油产量强劲、受美国制裁国家产量保持弹性及未来库存增加预期 [8] - 巴西石油产量创新高，美国批准雪佛龙在委内瑞拉运营并暂缓对部分俄罗斯石油买家制裁，伊朗石油产量处多年高位 [8] - 瑞银预计到今年年底布伦特原油价格达每桶62美元，到2026年年中回升至每桶65美元，此前预测为每桶68美元 [8] Group 4: Data Overview - 包含WTI现货价格、阿曼现货价格、Brent基金净持仓、Dtd Brent价格、全球高频原油库存、WTI基金持仓、美国原油增产速度、EIA原油库存等数据图表 [11][13][14][18]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand of asphalt have deteriorated. The previous long - asphalt short - crude oil positions should be temporarily closed for profit and wait and see, with a unilateral short - selling mindset [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For BU2510, the opening price was 3491 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3481 yuan/ton, the highest was 3510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3466 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.51%, and the trading volume was 162,800 lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3455 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3439 yuan/ton, the highest was 3477 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3429 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.69%, and the trading volume was 27,400 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong market, the asphalt spot price fell; in the North China market, it rose slightly, and other regions remained stable. The decline in crude oil and asphalt futures prices increased the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will rise significantly. The Universiade and parade will limit local project construction, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt is limited [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily close the previous long - asphalt short - crude oil positions for profit and wait and see, with a unilateral short - selling mindset [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3530 - 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous workday. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fall, and terminal demand was weak. Some traders and refineries lowered prices to stimulate sales [7] - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3550 - 3630 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The inventory of Guangzhou Petrochemical was high, and some refineries planned to lower contract prices, with weak market sentiment [7] 3. Data Overview - **Data Source**: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13] - **Graphs**: Include graphs of Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [11][12][21]