Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Core View - The PTA market is expected to be weak as crude oil rebounds weakly, PTA supply is sufficient, downstream polyester sales are generally dull, and market confidence is insufficient [6] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 14th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,640 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 1.40%. The settlement price was 4,664 yuan/ton, and the daily position was reduced by 62,460 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,666 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton. The trading volume of TA2509 was 342,285 lots, a decrease of 62,460 lots, while the trading volume of TA2601 was 527,922 lots, an increase of 123,308 lots [6] Industry News - The International Energy Agency raised its supply forecasts for this year and next and lowered its demand growth forecast. After data showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, international oil prices fell for the second consecutive day. However, the decline narrowed after the US Treasury Secretary said that Trump could use sanctions in his meeting with Putin. On Wednesday (August 13), the settlement price of the September 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.65 per barrel, down $0.52 or 0.82% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.38. The settlement price of the October 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.63 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.74% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.01 - $66.33 [7] - The assessed price of PX in the Chinese market was $823 - $825 per ton, down $8 per ton from the previous trading day. The assessed price of PX in the South Korean market was $803 - $805 per ton, also down $8 per ton from the previous trading day. Against the backdrop of tense geopolitical relations, international oil prices continued to run weakly, resulting in insufficient cost momentum for PX. There was one transaction on the day, with any October shipment sold at $824 per ton [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,654 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, down 1 yuan/ton [7] Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as PTA futures price summary, spot-futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, and PTA downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI main contract opened at $62.38, closed at $62.04, with a high of $62.59, a low of $61.29, a decline of 0.7%, and a trading volume of 1.924 billion barrels [6] - Brent main contract opened at $66.14, closed at $65.74, with a high of $66.33, a low of $65.01, a decline of 0.57%, and a trading volume of 3.101 billion barrels [6] - SC main contract opened at 490.2 yuan/barrel, closed at 481.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 490.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 480 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.75%, and a trading volume of 777 million barrels [6] - EIA data showed that as of the week ending August 8, US crude oil inventories increased significantly, and the IEA monthly report raised the global supply forecast, causing overnight oil prices to continue to decline [6] - US and Russian leaders are about to have direct talks. The US hopes to achieve a cease - fire in Russia and Ukraine through sanctions. Sanctions on Russian oil may have a short - term impact [7] - As of the week ending August 1, US gasoline demand was below the 5 - year average. Gasoline consumption in the peak season did not pick up significantly, and oil consumption growth was barely positive after 5 consecutive weeks below the 2024 level. US peak - season travel consumption was lower than expected [7] - Overall, US peak - season consumption this year has not improved significantly, and oil prices are mainly bearish. If the US imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil, it may be an opportunity to enter short positions [7] Group 3: Industry News - Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December [8] - In July, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month [8] - CPC's oil exports in July increased by 3% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, Dtd Brent price, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources including Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [11][13][19]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The supply - demand situation of asphalt has deteriorated, and a unilateral short - selling approach is recommended [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3501 yuan/ton, closing at 3472 yuan/ton, with a high of 3502 yuan/ton, a low of 3465 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%, and a trading volume of 153,800 lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3449 yuan/ton, closing at 3430 yuan/ton, with a high of 3459 yuan/ton, a low of 3425 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.49%, and a trading volume of 35,600 lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market increased, while other regions remained stable. The reduction in asphalt spot circulation in some markets supported local prices. Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will rise significantly. Due to events like the World Games and the military parade, local project construction will be restricted, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt will be limited [6] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous workday. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate at low levels, and terminal demand was weak. The spot market was cautious and wait - and - see, with stable quotes from major refineries and traders, and mainly on - demand procurement [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous workday. Affected by typhoon weather, there was rainfall in some areas, and the rigid demand for asphalt remained weak. Social inventory quotes were stable after a decline, with sufficient market supply and a weak overall sentiment [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][16][19]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 closed at 5520 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous settlement price of 5510 yuan/ton [7] - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5200 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5850 - 5870 yuan/ton [7] - Suzano will reduce its commercial pulp production by 3.50% for the next year starting from August 6th [7] - In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year [7] - In July, China's total pulp imports were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 4.96% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao and Changshu ports rising [7] - The recovery of downstream market demand was slow, and the price of finished paper remained stable with a weak trend. The short - term industry profit had no significant improvement, and the rebound space was limited [7] 2. Industry News - On August 14th, Sunshine Paper announced that it expected its net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2025 to decline by 55% - 65% year - on - year. The decline was mainly due to lower paper prices, reduced unconditional government subsidies, increased operating losses of Sunshine Prince Specialty Paper Co., Ltd., and losses in the fair value of financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including pulp futures prices, spot prices, price spreads, inventory data, and finished paper prices, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][21][23]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]

Report Information - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3290, the opening price was 3288, the highest price was 3297, the lowest price was 3150, and the closing price was 3191, with a decline of 99 and a drop rate of 3.01%. The trading volume was 242,135, the open interest was 122,655, and the open interest decreased by 30,207. For the 2510 contract, the closing price was 3189, with a decline of 11 and a drop rate of 0.34%. The trading volume was 325,909, the open interest was 310,634, and the open interest increased by 25,322. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 3313, with an increase of 5 and an increase rate of 0.15%. The trading volume was 54,070, the open interest was 117,784, and the open interest increased by 5,435 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, also with no change from the previous day [7]. Analysis of the Market Situation - **Spot Market**: Egg prices dropped sharply last week. The peak - season price increase in the spot market started late this year, around July 10th. By late July, market pressure emerged, and the release of cold - stored eggs impacted the market. The current round of decline in the peak season was about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, indicating significant supply pressure. Although spot prices stabilized this week, there was no upward trend nationwide, especially in the Hebei pink egg area where prices were still slightly under pressure [8]. - **Futures Market**: The near - month 09 contract dropped to nearly 3300 points last week, hitting a record low since listing. This week, it continued to squeeze out the premium and has fallen below 3200 points. The current market sentiment is extremely low. In the short term, the large - scale trend of near - month contracts may still be bearish, and there are risks in taking long - position opportunities in bands. If the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter [8]. 2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The inventory has been increasing for 7 consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hens in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and the same period in 2024 (41.68 million). This was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume this year [9][10]. - **Hen Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to August 7th, the national hen culling volumes were 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline rate higher than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average age of culled hens was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Recommendations - Copper prices continued to rise. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79,360. Overnight US CPI data was lower than expected, leading the market to further bet on a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index declined, which was positive for copper prices. The spot price rose 325 to 79,475, and the spot premium remained flat at 200. As the delivery was approaching, domestic supply was still tight, but imported supply supplemented. It was expected that the premium would slightly decline. The spot Shanghai-London ratio dropped to 8.088, the import loss narrowed to 75, and the 0-3C structure widened to 87. The premiums of warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. In the short term, the domestic spot market was stronger than the overseas market. With the opening of the expectations of interest rate cuts in China and the US, the market's bullish sentiment rebounded. It was recommended to buy copper on dips [10] Group 3: Industry News - Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year-on-year to 120,200 tons [11] - According to Industrial Online data, in June 2025, China's household air conditioner exports ended a two-year growth trend. The export volume in that month decreased by 25.6% year-on-year to 6.496 million units [11] - The unadjusted annual CPI rate in the US in July remained the same as the previous month, recording 2.7%; the unadjusted annual core CPI rate in July rose to a five-month high, recording 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates immediately, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [11] - According to recycled copper rod enterprises, the investment promotion policy may be cancelled on September 1, 2025. Currently, no enterprise has received an official notice, but many enterprises are worried that if the preferential policies for enterprise operations stop, they will need to purchase recycled copper raw materials with a 13% VAT in the future. Therefore, recycled copper rod enterprises may temporarily stop production and wait until September 1 to see if the notice is actually implemented before making production plans [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Quotes 8月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况 - RB2510: Previous closing price 3258 yuan/ton, opening price 3260 yuan/ton, highest price 3274 yuan/ton, lowest price 3221 yuan/ton, closing price 3222 yuan/ton, decline of 0.92%, trading volume 1,236,428 lots, open interest 1,652,593 lots, open interest change +47,205 lots, capital inflow 0.66 billion yuan [5] - HC2510: Previous closing price 3484 yuan/ton, opening price 3483 yuan/ton, highest price 3498 yuan/ton, lowest price 3448 yuan/ton, closing price 3451 yuan/ton, decline of 0.66%, trading volume 468,704 lots, open interest 1,353,836 lots, open interest change -27,724 lots, capital outflow 0.99 billion yuan [5] - SS2510: Previous closing price 13200 yuan/ton, opening price 13200 yuan/ton, highest price 13240 yuan/ton, lowest price 13115 yuan/ton, closing price 13130 yuan/ton, decline of 0.64%, trading volume 160,324 lots, open interest 144,226 lots, capital outflow 0.02 billion yuan [5] - I2601: Previous closing price 801 yuan/ton, opening price 801 yuan/ton, highest price 803.5 yuan/ton, lowest price 795 yuan/ton, closing price 795 yuan/ton, unchanged, trading volume 197,238 lots, open interest 452,419 lots, open interest change +8,620 lots, capital inflow 0.63 billion yuan [5] 8月13日黑色系期货持仓情况 - RB2510: Top 20 long positions 975,911 lots, top 20 short positions 1,030,165 lots, long position change +24,268 lots, short position change +41,372 lots, long - short difference -17,104 lots, deviation -1.71% [8] - HC2510: Top 20 long positions 966,759 lots, top 20 short positions 977,598 lots, long position change -20,634 lots, short position change -20,918 lots, long - short difference +284 lots, deviation 0.03% [8] - SS2510: Top 20 long positions 94,934 lots, top 20 short positions 106,383 lots, long position change +1,080 lots, short position change +993 lots, long - short difference +87 lots, deviation 0.09% [8] - J2601: Top 20 long positions 22,452 lots, top 20 short positions 28,968 lots, long position change +944 lots, short position change +956 lots, long - short difference -12 lots, deviation -0.05% [8] - JM2601: Top 20 long positions 345,358 lots, top 20 short positions 439,981 lots, long position change -36,050 lots, short position change -4,758 lots, long - short difference -31,292 lots, deviation -7.97% [8] - I2601: Top 20 long positions 291,866 lots, top 20 short positions 281,990 lots, long position change +5,252 lots, short position change +4,434 lots, long - short difference +818 lots, deviation 0.29% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis 行情回顾 - On August 13, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures oscillated, opened higher and then oscillated, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 795.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 现货市场动态与技术面走势 - Spot market: On August 13, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0 - 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning back; the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross [9] 后市展望 - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restriction in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 section steel enterprises using semi - finished steel billets. Some coking plants in Shandong have a production restriction plan from August 16 - 25 (30% restriction), August 26 - September 3 (50% restriction), and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 41,000 tons [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly last week, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may oscillate at a moderately low level. Demand - The downstream steel demand still shows a seasonal decline, inventory is gradually accumulating, and the molten iron output has declined for three consecutive weeks but is still above 240,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen again. With sufficient profits, steel enterprises maintain strong production. In the short term, the demand for iron ore remains strong, supporting the ore price. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan needs to be observed. If the production cut is not large, the raw material price will not be under great pressure and may even strengthen slightly with the rise of steel prices [11] - Overall: At present, the price trend of the black sector is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and the speculation sentiment of anti - involution related varieties still exists, but the impact on iron ore is small, and the price will gradually return to fundamentals. Considering that the high production of steel mills supports the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, it is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level consolidation trend in the short term. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan on the fundamentals needs to be observed [11] Group 4: Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea issued Announcement No. 2025 - 171, proposing to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled stainless steel plates originating from China. The tax rate for relevant enterprises and other Chinese producers/exported is 21.62%. The case involves products under South Korean tax numbers 7219.21.1010, etc., excluding some specific products such as hot - rolled coils [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the sample steel mill's tax - free molten iron cost, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20][25][29][30][35][37][43]

1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily review of coke and coking coal, dated August 14, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Performance 3.1 Futures Market - On August 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures significantly declined, giving back most of the gains from the previous two trading days. The J2601 contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 2.83%, with a trading volume of 35,677 lots and an open interest of 38,707 lots, an increase of 1,917 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.11 billion yuan. The JM2601 contract closed at 1245 yuan/ton, down 3.00%, with a trading volume of 2,684,599 lots and an open interest of 685,537 lots, a decrease of 33,409 lots, and a capital outflow of 10.86 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On August 13, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1400 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - On August 13, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends. The J and K values turned down, while the D value continued to rise. The daily MACD indicator of the coke 2601 contract changed from a golden cross the previous day to a death cross, and the daily MACD indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract showed a significant narrowing of the red column after a golden cross the previous day, nearly a death cross [8] 4. News and Policy 4.1 Coking Industry - On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental production restrictions, requiring a 30% - 50% production cut from August 16 to early September. Specifically, from August 16 - 25, a 30% cut is required, from August 26 to September 3, a 50% cut, and production will resume on September 4 [10] 4.2 Coal Industry - On August 13, the National Mine Safety Administration held a press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". The revision mainly includes significantly reducing the requirements for underground gas inspectors and inspection frequencies based on the actual coal mine operations, and relaxing some detailed requirements regarding the number of working faces to enterprise decision - making [10] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Coke - The coke production of independent coking plants has slowly recovered to a new high since mid - June, but the overall increase is still small. The coke production of steel mills has continued to decline, reaching a new low since early February. Port coke inventories have reached a new high since the end of May and tend to continue accumulating, while steel mills and coking plants have further reduced their inventories, reaching new lows since mid - December and early December last year respectively. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 12 consecutive weeks. The 5th round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on August 4, and the 6th round of price increase proposed on August 13 may be implemented the next day [10] 5.2 Coking Coal - From January to July, the year - on - year import volume of coal and lignite in China increased by 1.9 percentage points to - 13.0%. From January to June, the year - on - year import volume of coking coal in China still showed a large decline of - 7.4%. The inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have significantly decreased in the past 7 weeks, with declines of 50.8% and 32.1% respectively. The inventories of independent coking plants are hovering near a new high since early February, and the inventories of steel mills have continued to rise, reaching a new high since early February, while port inventories have reached a new low since early August last year. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventories and the cooling of coking plant replenishment, the spot price of coking coal is relatively strong [11] 6. Market Outlook - Affected by the production restrictions of steel enterprises in Tangshan, which boosted the profits of downstream finished products, and the superimposed production restrictions of coking enterprises in Shandong, although the recent increase in the spot prices of coke and coking coal has been relatively lagging, the futures market, especially the main 2601 contract, has risen significantly again. However, it failed to break through on August 13, and the market may shift to a mid - to - high - level oscillation in the future. Attention should be paid to changes in the stock market and risk appetite [11] 7. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", providing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [12] - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start construction reached over 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6% [12] - Ningxia Coal Industry Company of the National Energy Group achieved good results from June to July, with commodity coal production of 10.567 million tons, sales of 11.1551 million tons, chemical product sales of 1.139 million tons, and railway transportation volume of 12.939 million tons, breaking the historical record for the same period [13] - China has basically formed a three - dimensional coal transportation pattern, with "seven vertical and five horizontal" coal railway trunk lines, coal - handling ports in the north and receiving ports in the south, and 33 UHV transmission lines [13] - In Xinjiang, the railway department's daily coal shipment reached 410,000 tons as of July 24, with a cumulative external shipment of 50.774 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% [13] - Jizhong Energy adjusted its coal prices due to factors such as over - production inspections and the peak season of thermal coal demand [13] - Yunnan Coal Group's raw coal production in the first half of the year reached 5.4001 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.18%, and the stripping volume increased by 65.98% year - on - year [13] - The Indian rupee has been weak against the US dollar, and the Indian central bank has sold at least $5 billion to support the rupee. The US dollar index has been oscillating above the 98 mark, and the RMB has shown resilience [13] - The EIA expects US coal production to be 473 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and to decrease to 445 million tons in 2026 [13] - In July 2025, Russia's coal exports to China by rail were 8.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. From January to July, the total was 58.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88% [13] - Russia's trade surplus from January to June 2025 decreased by 18.39% year - on - year to $63.9 billion. Exports decreased by $13.3 billion to $195.5 billion, and imports increased slightly by $1.1 billion to $131.6 billion [13] - OPEC's monthly report shows that in July, OPEC +'s average crude oil production was 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day from June. The global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.29 million barrels per day, and the forecast for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day [14] - Australia's coal export value in June 2025 was 6.252 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 35.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.51%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 31.006 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 30.26% [14] - Canada's coal export volume in May 2025 was 3.4116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 186.79% and a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. The export value was $645 million, a year - on - year increase of 203.24% [14] - In June, India's oil imports from Russia accounted for 45% of its total imports, up from 44% in May. India's total oil imports in June fell below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in five months, to 4.86 million barrels per day, a 2% month - on - month decrease [14] 8. Data Overview - The report provides data on metallurgical coke and coking coal spot prices, production and inventory of coking plants and steel mills, and related basis data [15][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell, with all related varieties closing down. Although there were many rumors, they did not become the market consensus. The spot price increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Most enterprises remained on the sidelines, but due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly. The price of Australian ore rose to 970, and the price of lithium mica rose to 2,030. The salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene turned profitable by 825, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 4,848. The enthusiasm of salt plants to start production was high. In the short term, as the impact of sentiment gradually decreases, the trading focus will return to the fundamentals, and the short - term upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The lithium carbonate futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, and related varieties closed down. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Market sentiment was mainly one of waiting and seeing, but due to demand and supply - side factors, the transaction price of spot lithium carbonate rose. The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica increased, and the profitability of salt plants improved. In the short term, the upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2.2行业要闻 - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative on the healthy development of the lithium industry, advocating fair competition, rational layout of new production capacity, and stable market supply through long - term cooperation agreements. It also called for increased R & D investment and innovation. The second - phase project of Anhui Xingchuan New Energy's high - power battery was launched, which will improve the new energy vehicle industry chain in Hefei High - tech Zone [14].