Report Information - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market of polyolefins opened higher and fluctuated, which supported the market sentiment. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply shows an increasing trend while the demand follow - up is poor. After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the futures price will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific stable - growth plans [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: Lianplastic L2509 opened higher, closed at 7387 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 245,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 9463 to 334,157 lots. PP main contract closed at 7145 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, a decline of 0.03%, and positions decreased by 9052 to 299,700 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is increasing as the planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous devices restart, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie is planned to be put into production. The demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low, the start - up of pipes and plastic weaving is stable, the orders in the daily chemical and food fields have slightly improved, but the production order days are extended, and the downstream's ability to accept high - price goods is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On July 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - **PE Market Price**: The price of LLDPE in North China is 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China is 7280 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7420 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market Price**: The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market is 6220 - 6280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market sentiment is supported by some positive supply - demand news and the significant increase in international crude oil prices [7]. - **PP Market Price**: The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China is 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, in East China is 7070 - 7180 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 31 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - In the short - term, oil prices are rising due to geopolitical and macro - support, but in the medium - term, they may fall again. It is recommended to operate flexibly. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia and the sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US need further observation [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was 67.04, closing at 69.25, with a high of 69.76, a low of 66.53, a rise of 3.81%, and a trading volume of 30.64 million lots. Brent's opening price was 70.28, closing at 72.76, with a high of 73.08, a low of 69.86, a rise of 3.88%, and a trading volume of 13.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 518.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 528.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 523.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 517.6 yuan/barrel, a rise of 2.7%, and a trading volume of 13.67 million lots [6] - **News Impact**: Trump will give Russia 10 days to reach a cease - fire agreement; otherwise, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russian energy buyers. The implementation of sanctions needs further observation [6] - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected in the peak season. If demand remains low, it will drag down refinery operations and lead to crude oil inventory accumulation. OPEC+ is likely to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [7] Group 5: Industry News - In June, Pemex's crude oil exports decreased by 39% year - on - year to a multi - decade low due to increased local refinery processing and fuel production [8] - Trump said he is not worried about oil issues if sanctions are imposed on Russia and gave Russia 10 days to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, while the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill reduce the demand for gold as a hedge and for allocation. The report expects the long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold to continue, but the price volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term mindset and medium - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Due to Trump's threat to Russia and the lack of breakthroughs in the China - US - Sweden economic and trade meeting, the US dollar index pulled back slightly after reaching 99, and London gold rebounded to around $3330 per ounce. The Politburo meeting's lack of specific deployment on anti - involution made silver, which has strong industrial attributes, relatively weak. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading. This week, attention should be paid to economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 775.25, up 0.29% with an open interest of 424,176 and an increase of 3248; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9,205, down 0.03% with an open interest of 835,724 and a decrease of 10,841; Gold T + D closed at 769.40, up 0.29% with an open interest of 214,988 and an increase of 8030; Silver T + D closed at 9,166, up 0.03% with an open interest of 3,535,666 and an increase of 30,532 [5]. - **Medium - term Trends**: Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The inflow of speculative funds into the silver and platinum markets in June has brought the gold - silver ratio back to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **China - US Economic and Trade Talks**: China and the US held a two - day constructive meeting in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced, and whether to extend the truce will be decided by President Trump [18]. - **IMF's Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, but warned that the global economy still faces significant risks [18]. - **Trump's Statement on Russia**: Trump said that if Russia shows no progress in ending the Ukraine war, the US will impose tariffs and other measures on Russia 10 days after July 29 [18]. - **China's PV Industry Association**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification statement, indicating that recent news about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, does not match the actual situation [19].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Futures: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures opened higher and closed with fluctuations. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,285 yuan/ton, up 2.20%. The trading volume was 605,161 lots, and the open interest was 242,677 lots, a net decrease of 34,057 lots [4] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Outlook - Supply and demand: The supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July is expected to remain at around 310,000 tons, slightly higher than the average monthly production from January to June this year. The operating rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the short - term production increase capacity of organic silicon is limited [4] - Market trend: In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The 10,000 - yuan mark is a significant resistance level [4] Group 3: Market News - Futures warehouse receipts: On July 30, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,846 lots, a net decrease of 236 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Exports: The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. The cumulative export from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export of 56,500 tons [5] - Power generation: As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to remain under pressure. In the long - term, although pig supply shows a slight increase, favorable policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection in some regions will have a positive impact on pig prices, and the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity needs attention [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 30th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 33 lots to 186,242 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 30th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,400 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 3,900 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening was high, with more pigs for secondary fattening still to be slaughtered [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24th was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [18].

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Summary 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 closed at 5374 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous settlement price of 5422 yuan/ton [7] - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5300 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5930 - 5950 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its July quotation. Yinxing had no new offers as all transactions were completed. The net price of Uruguay hardwood pulp Xinmingxing was 500 US dollars/ton [7] - In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year [7] - In June, the inventory of wood pulp in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [7] - In June, China's total pulp imports were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year [7] - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.39% month - on - month, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Affected by the off - season atmosphere this week, the production and sales pressure of downstream paper manufacturers remained high. In the short term, pulp prices declined under pressure due to the influence of the commodity market atmosphere [7] 2. Industry News - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the operating income of the paper and paper products industry was 681.21 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the operating cost was 601.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the total profit was 17.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4% [8] - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper Co., Ltd. plans to eliminate its existing 102,000 - ton wheat straw chemical pulp production facilities in the first, second, and third - phase continuous cooking, washing, screening, and bleaching workshops, as well as the supporting alkali recovery workshop and white mud refined calcium carbonate workshop [8] 3. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped significantly. The 09 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a reduction of 33,554 positions. The decline might be due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. Speculative long - positions in the near - month 09 contract exited in large numbers, while industrial hedging long - positions showed signs of entering. Speculative funds on the far - month 01 contract had an obvious intention to go long, and the 9 - 1 spread might further shrink [7][8]. - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract fell 0.02% to $475.30 per ton. The overnight rise in crude oil prices provided some support to sugar prices. The market is expecting a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a position of 277,031 contracts and a reduction of 33,554 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,666 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.91%, with a position of 200,143 contracts and an increase of 18,274 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.56 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents or 0.79%, with a position of 395,463 contracts and a reduction of 2,396 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.16 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents or 0.65%, with a position of 223,411 contracts and an increase of 160 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Sugar Market**: The decline of Zhengzhou sugar was possibly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. The exit of speculative long - positions in the 09 contract and the entry intention of industrial hedging long - positions, along with the long - entry intention of speculative funds in the 01 contract, may lead to a further shrinkage of the 9 - 1 spread [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: According to a report released by the Guangxi Soil and Fertilizer Station in mid - July, among 42 monitoring points of 14 farmland moisture monitoring stations in the region, 16 points had excessive moisture, 22 points had suitable moisture, and 4 points had insufficient moisture. Over 90% of the farmland moisture was suitable to excessive during the monitoring period [9]. - **Sugar Production Forecast in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons. The cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% year - on - year to 48.31 million tons. The sugar yield per ton of cane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 4.1% year - on - year to 136.18 kilograms per ton. The sugar - making ratio of cane is expected to be 53.11% [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Sugar Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory on July 25, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Arrangement on Mutual Recognition of the Chinese Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and the Thai Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola Company announced on Tuesday that it will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][20]. - The total long - position of the top 20 seats was 325,093 contracts, an increase of 105,773 contracts; the total short - position was 212,307 contracts, a decrease of 17,666 contracts; the total delivery - related position was 192,544 contracts, a decrease of 26,731 contracts [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro - and geopolitical support, a short - term long strategy should be adopted for asphalt, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3650 yuan/ton, the highest was 3677 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3616 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.00%, and the trading volume was 191,500 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3636 yuan/ton, the highest was 3659 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3601 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.22%, and the trading volume was 100,100 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment. In terms of supply, although some refineries in the Northeast had no short - term production increase plans, due to the high - load production of Jinling Petrochemical after resuming production on the 23rd and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants was expected to rise. On the demand side, rainy weather affected most parts of the country, and the improvement in asphalt demand was limited [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand improved slightly, and social inventory quotes remained stable, waiting for major refineries to re - price [8]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 3800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Affected by typhoon weather, market demand declined slightly. Although the asphalt futures market rebounded, it was difficult to increase spot prices due to weak demand [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple figures related to the asphalt market, including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]