行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 1 日 油） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、M ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员： ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market continues to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro and geopolitical support, a short - long strategy for asphalt is recommended, with timely profit - taking [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - For futures contracts BU2509, the opening price was 3654 yuan/ton, closing at 3659 yuan/ton, with a high of 3682 yuan/ton, a low of 3650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.30%, and a trading volume of 14.56 million lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3654 yuan/ton, closing at 3649 yuan/ton, with a high of 3667 yuan/ton, a low of 3637 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.47%, and a trading volume of 8.40 million lots [6] Spot Market - In the spot market, the asphalt price in Shandong showed a slight increase, while prices in other regions remained stable. The strong trends of crude oil and asphalt futures positively influenced the spot market sentiment [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Some refineries in the Northeast that reduced production have no short - term plans to increase output. However, due to Jinling Petrochemical's high - load production after resuming on the 23rd and the possible resumption of Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise. Demand: Rainy weather still affects most parts of China, with relatively less impact in Shandong and Central China, which supports demand to some extent. But the stability of most road projects outside key projects cannot be guaranteed, and the improvement in asphalt demand is limited [6] Group 5: Industry News Shandong Market - The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3640 - 4070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The rising trends of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosted the asphalt price from the cost and market sentiment perspectives, leading some traders to raise their quotes [8] South China Market - The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous day. Sinopec's settlement and Gaofu's plan to set new contract prices kept the social inventory quotes stable. Although terminal demand improved slightly, the current asphalt demand is still small, and market sentiment is cautious [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17][24]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: August 01, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.26%. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, and the open interest was 212,932 lots, with a net decrease of 29,745 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,250 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared to the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the short - term production increase capacity of organic silicon is limited [4] - The exchange has continuously issued limit notices, and the risk appetite of funds has significantly decreased. A bearish trend has formed on the hourly chart, and the range above 9,000 has become a resistance area. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On July 31, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,644 lots, a net increase of 798 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised not to go full - long or blindly short, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chairman Powell indicated that more time was needed to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The better - than - expected US second - quarter GDP and June ADP private employment data cooled the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index tested the 100 mark. London gold once fell to $3267 per ounce, but then rebounded to around $3300 per ounce due to Trump's tariff threats. Silver with strong industrial attributes fell below the $37 per ounce mark [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - to - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Powell's remarks reduced the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September from nearly 70% to less than 50%. Two Fed governors appointed by Trump opposed the decision [19]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 1st and mentioned a fine for India without details. India is studying the impact and aims for a fair trade agreement. Trump also said the deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners will not be extended this Friday [19]. - The US second - quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, this indicator exaggerated the economic health as the decline in imports was the main reason for the improvement, and domestic demand growth was the slowest in two and a half years [20].

1. Report Overview - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down significantly, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55% (down from 57% the previous week), the budding rate was 80% (up from 71% the previous week), and the boll - setting rate was 44% (up from 33% the previous week). The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of cotton had different basis quotes. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - **Macro and Industry Situation**: The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the budding rate was 80%, and the boll - setting rate was 44%. The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve's September interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest - rate cut. The Fed modified its description of the economic situation, stating that "economic activity growth has slowed down in the first half of the year" and that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains at a high level" [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][25]. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 09 contract decreased by 2.50%, and the downstream paper manufacturers are under pressure in production and sales due to the off - season atmosphere. The pulp price is under pressure and declines affected by the commodity market atmosphere [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5366 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5232 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.50%. The 01 contract decreased by 1.95%, and the 05 contract decreased by 1.01% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5230 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in the world increased by 4.4% month - on - month and decreased by 8.2% year - on - year. In June, the wood pulp inventory in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. In June, China's pulp import volume increased by 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.08% month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - **European Port Inventory**: In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% year - on - year. Most European countries saw a month - on - month increase in port inventory [9]. - **Profit of Paper Industry**: From January to June 2025, the operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 6812.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the operating cost was 6017.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; and the total profit was 175.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including import bleached softwood pulp spot price, pulp futures price, pulp basis, price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, paper prices and their spreads, and USD - CNY exchange rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][19][26][28][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs increases and demand is weak, putting pressure on pig prices. In the long - term, policies such as the anti - involution initiative and high - quality development of the pig industry are expected to benefit pig prices, and the impact of policies on production capacity needs to be monitored [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On July 31, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards, closing down 0.32% at 14,075 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,308 lots to 175,934 lots [8] - **Spot market**: On July 31, the average price of ternary pigs in China was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased slightly. On July 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, down 500 from the previous day and up 2,400 from a week ago [9] - **Supply side**: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of farmers accelerated, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreased slightly. The utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is high, and there are still pigs for secondary fattening to be sold in the future [9] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [10][12] 3.3 Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads [20] - As of the week of July 24, the average weight of live pigs for sale was 128.48 kg, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease and a 2.46% year - on - year increase [20]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行 ...