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建信期货国债日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Current fundamentals and policies offer little guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, and the rising market risk appetite suppresses the bond market. It's advisable to trade bonds based on stock market performance and beware of additional selling pressure from bond fund and wealth management redemptions [11]. - Long - term: Considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand, the expectation of monetary easing may rise again in October as external demand risks become more apparent in the third quarter, tariff negotiation results are clarified, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the anti - involution measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the bond market trend may reverse. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side reform policies and the strength of demand recovery [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continues. The strong performance of commodity futures and the announcement on inflation - related policies may boost inflation expectations, leading to a wider decline in Treasury bond futures in the late session [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen, mostly by 3 - 4bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond 250011 reached 1.735%, up 2.9bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The capital market is stable with rising prices. There were 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates have risen significantly, while medium - and long - term funds remain stable and loose [10]. 3.2 Industry News - An economic and trade meeting between China and the US will be held in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises [13]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th, with an increase in the proportion of "zero - tariff" goods [13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take measures to address issues in the pig industry [13]. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly renovated, and 25,000 are planned for the whole year [14]. - Bank deposit interest rates continue to decline [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [35].
建信期货镍日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, with the 2509 contract hitting a recent high of 124,660 and closing at 124,360, up 0.66%. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,395 to 178,067 lots. The oversupply situation of nickel has not changed, and price pressure still exists [7]. - With the gradual approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, the supply of nickel ore will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly to 909 yuan per nickel point, but most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to effectively support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel iron and stainless steel also drags down the nickel ore end [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has continued to rise slightly to 27,260. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize temporarily under the support of low inventories in nickel salt factories and the rigid replenishment demand of precursors. Overall, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. Although the performance of the industrial chain has slightly improved recently with the price rebound, it remains weak. There is an expectation of weakening support from the ore end. In the short term, macro factors support the temporary strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On July 24, the 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel refreshed its recent high, and the index's total open interest increased. The nickel market's oversupply pattern persists, and price pressure is still present [7]. - As additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia are approved, nickel ore supply will be loose, and there is a possibility of a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly, but most Indonesian smelters are still in the red. The reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, and the support for prices is weak. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, unable to support the raw material end effectively. The weak situation of nickel iron and stainless steel also affects the nickel ore market [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has risen slightly and is expected to stabilize. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. Although the industrial chain has shown some improvement with the price rebound, it is still weak, and the support from the ore end may weaken. In the short term, macro factors support the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space needs careful consideration [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual output. The low production was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. Indonesia also imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in the first half of the year. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been rising due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the industry's international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. The project was developed by Advance Green Energy AD and completed in six months [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency. This innovation is expected to reduce production costs and improve the sustainability and scalability of solar cell manufacturing [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, bringing the total approved storage capacity to over 1.6 GW. The project is expected to create jobs and help Scotland achieve its energy goals [10].
铝日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:43
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, Shanghai aluminum continued to undergo a correction. The 2509 contract fell 0.41% to 20,760. The total open interest of the index decreased by 25,607 to 665,593 lots. The 08 - 09 spread remained flat at 25, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -525. Alumina fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. The proportion of old - style production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it is difficult to benefit under current policies. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant about the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is currently in the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and demand remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still weak during the off - season. The negative feedback effect of the high absolute price of aluminum on terminal consumption has reappeared. On July 24, the immediate profit was 3,979 yuan/ton, still at a high level. Overall, both supply and demand of aluminum are weak during the off - season. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the sector, but the upside space is temporarily difficult to open, and the resistance near the previous high is obvious. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum: The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.41% on July 24, with a decrease in total open interest. The 08 - 09 spread was flat, and the AD - AL negative spread was -525. [8] - Alumina: It fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. There is a risk of a post - sentiment callback. [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In the off - season, high operating capacity, weak demand, low processing operating rate, and high profit level. The upside space is restricted by the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production capacity of the original factory was required to be reduced, resulting in a slight month - on - month decrease in production. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, with the industry operating rate rebounding. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises have long - idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **US Aluminum Plant Restart**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an estimated loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After the Spanish government provided relevant reports and commitments, the restart work resumed on July 14. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million - $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. The smelter has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 228,000 tons. [10]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:39
Report Overview - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main price of industrial silicon futures has encountered resistance in its upward movement and is undergoing adjustment. The overall supply - demand remains loose. Currently, the dominant factors of the market are policy > funds > fundamentals. The continuous increase in spot prices compresses the adjustment space of the futures market. For the short - term, it is expected to show a cautiously strong and volatile trend, and a bullish trend continuation requires a strong breakthrough above the 10,000 - yuan mark [4] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The closing price of Si2509 was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The trading volume was 1,172,879 lots, and the open interest was 336,274 lots, with a net increase of 1,498 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] - **Outlook**: Southwest restarts offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. Photovoltaic demand has slightly increased due to the restart of polysilicon enterprises, but the demand has decreased due to the shutdown and rectification of a Shandong organic silicon enterprise. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4] 3.2 Market News - On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,776 lots, a net decrease of 330 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On July 18, the work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, reaching a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures market of polyolefins opened low and fluctuated upwards. The prices of plastics and PP increased, but the market trading atmosphere changed little. The downstream demand remained weak, and the prices of polypropylene and plastics still faced upward resistance. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's push to adjust the structure and optimize the supply of key petrochemical industries had limited substantial impact on the polypropylene and plastics industry in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastic 2601 opened at 7332 yuan/ton, closed at 7436 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (0.90%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7340 yuan/ton, closed at 7427 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (0.94%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7288 yuan/ton, closed at 7385 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.89%). PP2601 opened at 7110 yuan/ton, closed at 7195 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (0.73%); PP2605 opened at 7115 yuan/ton, closed at 7180 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (0.60%); PP2509 opened at 7101 yuan/ton, closed at 7181 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (0.77%) [3]. - The downstream agricultural film industry was at its lowest operating level of the year, and there were no obvious signs of improvement in the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving industries [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.96%) from the previous working day, compared with 710,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7180 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China 7330 - 7600 yuan/ton [5]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6250 - 6300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day [5]. - The PP market showed a warm - up adjustment, with some prices rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The actual demand of downstream factories for raw materials was difficult to increase, and they were cautious in purchasing [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data details were not described in the text [7][14][17].
建信期货棉花日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:38
Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index has increased, and the pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream has difficulty in increasing volume. Spinning mills are still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the cotton growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. Supply pressure has emerged in the short - term, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream is difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills are in large - scale losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is good, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The supply side has brought short - term pressure to cotton prices, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In mid - July, most parts of Xinjiang had high temperatures. Precipitation was higher in most parts of Hami and lower in the rest of Xinjiang. Sunshine hours were higher in parts of northern Xinjiang and lower in the rest. The weather was beneficial to the growth of summer corn in southern Xinjiang but not conducive to the growth of spring wheat, spring corn, cotton, and fruit [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect of polysilicon is not the main driving logic currently. After the end of the rush installation, the domestic demand has dropped significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand balance may become a long - term drag. The current market is mainly driven by policy and funds, with the policy stage boosting market sentiment. However, regulatory adjustments aim to curb excessive speculation, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract broke through the previous high and fluctuated strongly. The PS2509 closed at 53,740 yuan/ton, up 5.15%. The trading volume was 1,123,795 lots, and the open interest was 10,067 lots, with a net decrease of 2,492 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The domestic demand will drop to around 45GW per month, while the supply will increase to 10 - 110,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 48 - 50GW. The supply - demand balance may be a long - term drag. The current market is driven by policy, funds, and fundamentals in order. The market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels in the short term [4] 2. Market News - On July 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main growth markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]
建信期货PTA日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Report Title: PTA Daily Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the strong market of bulk chemicals and industrial products under the anti - involution expectation, stable downstream polyester demand, and the expected maintenance of PTA plants under low processing fees, the PTA market is expected to rise slightly [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 24th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,850 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton or 0.87%, with a settlement price of 4,814 yuan/ton and a daily increase in positions of 35,799 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,824 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 253,188 lots and an increase of 5,799 lots [5] 2. Industry News - US crude oil inventories declined, but distillate inventories increased. The market awaited the clarification of US tariff negotiations. European and American crude oil futures fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, but the decline narrowed. On July 23rd, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $65.25 per barrel, down $0.06 or 0.09%, with a trading range of $64.71 - $65.78. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 was $68.51 per barrel, down $0.08 or 0.12%, with a trading range of $68.00 - $69.10 [6] - The Asian xylene market was sorted out in a small range. The FOB South Korea market closed at $713/ton, and the CFR China market closed at $730/ton [6] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,814 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 1 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, down 4 yuan/ton. The overall market of bulk chemicals was strong, downstream polyester had no intention to cut production, and some PTA plants might be shut down for maintenance in early August [6] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA futures price summary, basis, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5][10][16]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
Report Information - Industry: Pulp [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes. In the short term, driven by the commodity market atmosphere and the upcoming shutdown maintenance of UPM Pulp Mill in August, pulp prices have oscillated and risen slightly. The off - season atmosphere persists this week, and the production and sales pressure of downstream base paper manufacturers remains high [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09: The previous settlement price was 5,424 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,456 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59% [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton. The low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,950 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile Arauco's July quotation: The Yinxing has been sold out with no new offers. The net price of Uruguay hardwood pulp New Star was 500 US dollars/ton [7]. - Production and consumption data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in the world was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. In June, the wood pulp inventory in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. China's total pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1% [7]. - Inventory data: As of July 24, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.39% month - on - month, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7]. 2. Industry News - On July 22, the No. 2 white cardboard machine of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully started. It took less than 10 months from the installation of the first dryer on October 18, 2024, to the commissioning and startup, setting a new record for the fastest construction of similar projects [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard, white board paper, coated paper, and offset paper, as well as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][18][25][27][29]
白糖日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures Market Conditions - SR509 closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, with an increase of 9969 contracts in open interest [7]. - SR601 closed at 5668 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.32%, with an increase of 7680 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 10 closed at 16.27 cents/pound, down 0.01 cents or -0.06%, with an increase of 4799 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 03 closed at 16.91 cents/pound, up 0.01 cents or 0.06%, with an increase of 2469 contracts in open interest [7]. Market Trends - On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.06% to 16.27 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.2% to $471.40/ton. There were rumors that India might allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper new - season sugarcane crop, which affected raw sugar prices. However, the current market sugar price is not high enough to support Indian exports [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed up in a fluctuating manner. The 09 contract closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, and the open interest increased by 9969 contracts. The spot prices in domestic producing areas slightly decreased. The price of Nanning sugar was 6070 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5860 yuan. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose generally due to the anti - involution theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar [8]. 3. Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [11]. - The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered the 2025 EU sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare, down from last month's forecast of 76.3 tons per hectare, but still 2% higher than the average of the past five years [11]. - In June 2025, China imported a total of 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (tax codes 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 45.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import was 109.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons [11]. - In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [11]. - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%; from January to June, it was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to June, it was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11]. 4. Data Overview Trading Volume and Open Interest of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar's Main Contract - The total trading volume was 332,449 lots, an increase of 87,359 lots. The total long - position volume was 250,320 lots, an increase of 8,473 lots. The total short - position volume was 237,085 lots, an increase of 7,251 lots [24]. - Among them, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 76,875 lots, an increase of 24,293 lots; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long - position volume of 76,332 lots, an increase of 3,151 lots; COFCO Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short - position volume of 54,245 lots, an increase of 3,136 lots [24].