Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货生猪日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long - term, pig supply will increase slightly, but initiatives such as anti - involution, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to medium - and long - term pig prices. The far - month 2601 contract is expected to perform strongly due to factors like weight - reduction expectations and supply growth being less than demand growth. Attention should be paid to the impact of later policies on production capacity [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures Market - On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, a 2.25% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,578 lots to 186,066 lots [9] Spot Market - On the 24th, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] Demand Side - The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On July 24, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 134,500 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 29,000 heads from a week ago [10] Supply Side - According to Yongyi data, the planned pig sales volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. Currently, the sales progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for sales has increased compared to the beginning of the month, the average weight of pigs for sale has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [10] Group 5: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/pig, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/pig; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 126 yuan/pig, a weekly decrease of 82 yuan/pig [11][12] Group 6: Data Overview - In the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 542 yuan/pig, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous week [21] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarter - on - quarter changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21] - As of the week of July 17, the average weight of pigs for slaughter nationwide was 128.83 kg, a 0.2 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease [21]
建信期货MEG日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 25 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250725
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:34
Report Overview - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract is oscillating at the bottom. The new - season US soybean has a good growth situation with a 68% excellent - good rate and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought. There is an expectation of improved demand as the US has reached trade agreements with many countries. However, China, the largest importer, has not started purchasing new - season soybeans for the fourth quarter due to a 23% tariff. If the high - tariff situation persists, CBOT soybeans may not show continuous improvement [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices dropped significantly today. The previous rise was due to China not starting new - season US soybean purchases. With the upcoming Sino - US talks, the market expects the soybean import tariff issue to be discussed. If the tariff returns to the previous level, combined with high soybean meal inventory, the market price may fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual results of next week's negotiations, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3116 | 3117 | 3131 | 3042 | 3059 | - 57 | - 1.83% | 828625 | 1220139 | - 15868 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3096 | 3091 | 3106 | 3003 | 3025 | - 71 | - 2.29% | 1842107 | 1668155 | - 170344 | | Soybean Meal 2511 | 3133 | 3132 | 3143 | 3041 | 3063 | - 70 | - 2.23% | 194982 | 630432 | 7143 | The US soybean futures contract is oscillating, with the main contract at 1025 cents. The new - season US soybean growth is good, and the demand is expected to improve. China has not started fourth - quarter new - season soybean purchases due to the 23% tariff. Domestic soybean meal prices dropped significantly today due to market expectations of tariff negotiations [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA Export Sales Report Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean export sales to increase by 350,000 - 850,000 tons in the week ending July 17. Among them, 2024/25 is expected to increase by 100,000 - 350,000 tons, and 2025/26 by 250,000 - 500,000 tons. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 250,000 - 550,000 tons, with 2024/25 increasing by 150,000 - 300,000 tons and 2025/26 by 100,000 - 250,000 tons. US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 20,000 tons, with 2024/25 increasing by 0 - 15,000 tons and 2025/26 by 0 - 5,000 tons [7]. - Anec Forecast: From July 20 to July 26, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to be 2.8107 million tons (last week was 3.0876 million tons), soybean meal export volume is expected to be 531,700 tons (last week was 566,200 tons), and corn export volume is expected to be 1.5212 million tons (last week was 627,700 tons) [8]. 3.3 Data Overview No specific data analysis content is provided, only information about data sources and some chart numbers are given [10][12][13]
镍日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:52
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - On July 23, the nickel price shifted to narrow - range fluctuations as the continuously surging varieties adjusted, indicating emerging market divergence. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and price pressure persists. With the approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. Although the ferronickel price has slightly rebounded, most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss, and the production reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, providing limited price support. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained flat. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the subsequent support from the ore end may weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - On July 23, the SHFE nickel 2509 closed at 123,370, down 0.06% from the previous day, and the total index positions decreased by 2,860 to 173,672 lots. The nickel market's excess situation remains, and price pressure exists. The supply of nickel ore will be loose, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The ferronickel price has a slight rebound, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss, and the support for prices is limited. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained at 27,250, and it is expected to stop falling temporarily. The overall performance of each industrial link is weakening, and the support from the ore end may loosen. The macro - sentiment currently dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be treated with caution [7]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far lower than the approved RKAB quota of 364.1 million tons in the first half of the year. The low utilization rate of the quota was due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance its international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system, marking a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 megawatt - hours of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A Turkish research team developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency, potentially reducing production costs [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its energy and emission - reduction goals [10].
铝日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:52
研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:机构净持仓 图2:机构多空比 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铝观点: 随着连续大涨品种日内出现调整,反应市场分歧或开始显现,铝价高位转跌。 23 日沪铝 2509 下跌 0.34%报 20790,指数总持仓减少 3190 至 691200 手,08-09 升水持平报 25;AD-AL 负价差报-520。氧化铝高位回落,跌幅达 2.81%,氧化铝 行业老旧产能占比较低,当前政策下或难受益,警惕情绪过后的回调风险。电解 铝端 ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:51
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22805 | 22920 | 22970 | 22770 | 95 | 0.42 | 41064 | -1996 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 22850 | 22975 | 23020 | 22815 | 115 | 0.50 | 137891 | 3831 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 22860 | 22955 | 23020 | 22820 | 100 | 0.44 | 42184 | 2206 | 数据来源: Wind ,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures ...
白糖日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:40
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes** - SR509 closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 332,040 contracts, a decrease of 2,120 contracts [7] - SR601 closed at 5656 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 126,227 contracts, an increase of 2,396 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 16.26 cents/lb, down 0.11 cents or 0.67%, with a position of 392,620 contracts, a decrease of 4,151 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.88 cents/lb, down 0.15 cents or 0.88%, with a position of 215,397 contracts, a decrease of 1,492 contracts [7] - **Market Analysis** - New York raw sugar futures trended weaker on Tuesday. The market rumor that India may allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper cane crop affected the raw sugar price, but the current low price is not enough to support Indian exports [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract closed higher. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose due to the "anti - involution" theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar. In the third quarter, the supply of refined sugar will gradually increase, which will suppress the domestic sugar price [8] Group 3: Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [11] - The European Union's crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its 2025 sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare from 76.3 tons last month, but it is still 2% higher than the five - year average [11] - In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 1,098,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 1,050,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29%. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 2,512,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons or 20.54% [11] - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to June, the total output was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [11] - In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to June, the total output was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures' Main Contract** - Dongzheng Futures (for clients) had the highest trading volume of 52,582 lots, an increase of 3,443 lots [22] - CITIC Futures (for clients) had the highest long position of 73,181 contracts, an increase of 1,840 contracts [22] - COFCO Futures (for clients) had the highest short position of 51,109 contracts, an increase of 1,037 contracts [22]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:39
行业 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 聚烯烃日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭 ...
贵金属日评-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:39
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].
建信期货沥青日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:39
行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员 ...