Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date of issue: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non-ferrous metals research team of CCB Futures, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Aluminum price trend: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September further heated up, and the loose expectation supported the continued rise of aluminum prices. On the 7th, SHFE aluminum gapped higher and moved up, with the main contract 2509 reaching a maximum of 20,830 yuan/ton and closing at 20,750 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.73%. The daily line showed a small doji pattern. The total open interest of the index increased by 17,268 to 594,821 lots. The premium of 08-09 turned to par. [8] - Market fundamentals: Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply of bauxite in August showed a tightening trend, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mining enterprises in Guinea, the shortage of the mining end may be limited, and bauxite prices mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be participated in. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season, and inventories increased seasonally. Smelting enterprises had rich profits. [8] - Operational suggestions: The current macro sentiment dominates the aluminum market, and the expectation of a loose US dollar and domestic policy support the sector to be strong, but the drag of the off-season still exists. One can wait for the opportunity to short-sell after the rebound. [8] Group 3: Industry News - Overseas bauxite mining rights change: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government. Previously, the 690.20-square-kilometer mining area of GAC has been awarded to NMC for a period of 25 years. EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 1.4 billion tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9] - New plant operation: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, was officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum each year. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing. The plant is expected to reach full production capacity in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired an 80% stake in Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced a plan to invest $4 billion to build a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will almost double the primary aluminum production in the United States. [9] - Mining rights change: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dayuan桃园 Bauxite Mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area covers 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 0.5 million tons per year. [9] - Company performance: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the decline in aluminum and copper prices and the increase in tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. The benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. The company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's comprehensive net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. The company's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21%. [9] - Electrolytic aluminum import and export data: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. [10]

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Intraday, soybean oil became the strongest variety, and the three major oils took turns to rise. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will announce July's supply - demand data on August 11. July's palm oil production may be better than expected, but exports are still very weak, meaning the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. It's necessary to focus on whether palm oil can effectively stand above the 9,000 mark recently. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Policy interference is significant, and the trend lacks an obvious driver. Due to the current ample supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and factory soybean oil inventory may still increase, dragging down the rise of soybean oil. However, it is optimistic in the long - term because of the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand. The room for a significant decline in the spot basis of the three major domestic oils in the later period is limited, and it is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1. Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8980 | 60000 | 5000 | 8920 | 8950 | - 30 | - 0.33% | | 445128 | - 27119 | | P2601 | 8986 | 9016 | 9056 | 8932 | 8966 | - 20 | - 0.22% | 211935 | 245848 | 7141 | | Y2509 | 8360 | 8420 | 8486 | 8366 | 8406 | - 46 | 0.55% | 388658 | 408811 | - 49208 | | Y2601 | 8334 | 8396 | 8466 | 8340 | 8378 | 44 | 0.53% | 403098 | 595690 | 44018 | | OI2509 | 9576 | 9575 | 9672 | 9458 | 9496 | - 80 | - 0.84% | 343152 | 155705 | - 25362 | | OI2601 | 9524 | 9530 | 9630 | 9452 | 9490 | - 34 | - 0.36% | 158654 | 162192 | 9619 | Domestic spot basis prices are also provided, such as Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2509 + 80, etc. [7] 3.1.2. Operation Suggestions - Appropriate to buy far - month basis as the later decline space of domestic three major oils' spot basis is limited [8] 3.2. Industry News 3.2.1. Palm Oil News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in July 2025 was 1.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.01%. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 17.18% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.69% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 2.58% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency SGS announced that Malaysia's palm oil exports in July were 896,362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June's 1.195265 million tons. Exports to China were 75,000 tons, a significant drop from June's 168,000 tons. - Survey data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased significantly and reached a 19 - month high. Reuters estimated production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] 3.2.2. Brazilian Soybean News - The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade (SECEX) data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.26 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons from June's 13.42 million tons. The export value in July was 502.197 million US dollars, a decrease of 33.214 million US dollars from June's 535.411 million US dollars. The average export price in July was 409.71 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10.75 US dollars per ton from June's 398.96 US dollars per ton. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean exports were 77.207 million tons, a decrease of 1.944 million tons from the same period last year. The cumulative export value from January to July 2025 was 3.0430808 billion US dollars, a decrease of 390.4235 million US dollars from the same period last year. The average export price from January to July 2025 was 394.15 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 39.64 US dollars per ton from the same period last year [10] 3.3. Data Overview - A series of charts are provided, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, as well as some price spreads and exchange rate charts [13][14][15]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 08 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征 25% 的额外关税，以回应印度继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"。特朗普表示，他 可能会宣布对中国加征进一步关税，类似于因印度购买俄罗斯石油而对印加征的 关税。此外，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约 100%的关税，如果在美国制造，将不 收取任何费用。关税消息的影响并不如前期明显，资金虽然有出逃的避险动作， 但日 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonate lithium futures rose significantly, and the market continued to trade on the news of the production cut at Jianxiaowo Mine. As August 9th approached, the time window for the news to be realized was narrowing, and it was expected to have a greater impact on the market. The spot price increased by 150 to 71,100. The 08 contract on the market continued to trade at a discount to the spot, but contracts after 09 were at a premium to the spot. This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium reached a new high of 19,556 tons. The production of carbonate lithium from lithium mica and salt lakes stopped falling and rebounded to 4,410 tons and 2,442 tons respectively, but was still lower than the previous high levels. Against the backdrop of positive profits for salt plants purchasing external salts, abundant lithium spodumene ore, and sufficient salt plant production capacity, the production of carbonate lithium from lithium spodumene reached 11,182 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons. The short - term market was rising under the influence of sentiment, but the fundamentals still exerted pressure, and the pattern of high production and high inventory remained unchanged. Even if the Jianxiaowo Mine stopped production, the positive profits of salt plants purchasing external lithium spodumene would offset the impact of the reduction in lithium mica production. Short - term chasing of highs was not advisable [11] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures rose sharply due to the news of production cut at Jianxiaowo Mine. The spot price increased by 150 to 71,100. The 08 contract was at a discount to the spot, while contracts after 09 were at a premium. Weekly production reached 19,556 tons, with lithium mica and salt lake production rebounding but still below previous highs, and lithium spodumene production reaching 11,182 tons. Weekly inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons. Caution was advised in short - term high - chasing [11] Group 5: Industry News - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd. won a 400 million yuan bid for the energy storage equipment of the Xinrong Hebang 400MW/800MWh energy storage power station project, with a unit price of 0.5 yuan/Wh [14] - The Indonesian government plans to build solar power stations for "Kopdes Merah Putih" to cover rural and remote areas, aiming for a solar power installation capacity of up to 100 gigawatts [14]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. In the futures market, the near - term 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a relatively large increase in demand, and their price performance may be oscillating upwards. Policies and other factors are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the impact of later policies on production capacity needs attention [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,920 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,023 lots to 176,215 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元hogs nationwide was 13.74 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pig pens is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, the terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 7th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,300 heads, an increase of 3,700 heads from the previous day and 2,300 heads from a week ago [8] - **Supply Side**: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for slaughter, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pig pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [9][11] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week of July 31st was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [17] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [17] - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week and a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of polyolefins opened lower and fluctuated, with the market trading atmosphere showing little change. Traders adjusted their quotes up and down, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously. The supply pressure persists, with new PE plants in Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into operation in the third quarter, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total capacity of 900,000 tons per year expected to be launched, significantly impacting the supply side. The demand is weak and needs improvement, with the overall downstream operating load remaining low. Although the operating rate of agricultural film has rebounded from a low level, the demand follow - up is slow; the orders in the construction field are mediocre, and the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are at historical lows in the same period; the demand for daily injection - molded products has increased slightly month - on - month. It is expected that the demand is likely to gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly adopt a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active inventory replenishment is limited. The policy - driven market has led to the rise of polyolefins, but the loose fundamental pattern will continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, polyolefins will return to a weak and volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The opening price of L2509 was 7310 yuan/ton, closing at 7297 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.29%), with a trading volume of 170,000 lots and the position decreased by 10,149 to 281,347 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7075 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.13%), and the position decreased by 5827 lots to 245,600 lots [3][4]. - **Supply Situation**: In the third quarter, new PE plants in Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into operation, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total capacity of 900,000 tons per year is expected to be launched, increasing the supply pressure [4]. - **Demand Situation**: The overall downstream operating load remains low. The operating rate of agricultural film has rebounded from a low level, but the demand follow - up is slow; the orders in the construction field are mediocre, and the operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are at historical lows in the same period; the demand for daily injection - molded products has increased slightly month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active inventory replenishment is limited [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (- 1.91%) from the previous working day, compared with 800,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in North China were in the range of 7190 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Propylene Market Price**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6250 - 6300 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with few transactions at the individual offer of 6230 yuan/ton [5]. - **PP Market Price**: The PP market partially loosened, with a range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawn wire was 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton, in East China 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, the inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the inventory of two major oil companies, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][14][15].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,162 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,186 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%. The trading volume was 96,860 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,106 lots to 79,224 lots [7]. - SP2601 contract: The closing price was 5,448 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 22,174 lots, and the open interest decreased by 626 lots to 23,839 lots [7]. - SP2605 contract: The closing price was 5,422 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 1,608 lots, and the open interest increased by 177 lots to 13,516 lots [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,150 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Silver Star was quoted at 5,800 - 5,820 yuan/ton [7]. Core View - Overseas pulp and paper market has weak prosperity, with some enterprises having production transfer, reduction, or suspension. The support for imported pulp prices needs attention. In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's total pulp imports were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [8]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.08% month - on - month. Only the inventories in Qingdao Port and Baoding increased. The overall shipment speed was stable. Most downstream paper mills' initial quotes were stable, and the boost to the demand side during the off - peak to peak season transition needs attention [8]. - The domestic market fundamentals have slightly improved. If the industry profit is further repaired, pulp still has room to rebound, but the overall space is limited without supply - side support [8]. Group 3: Industry News - On August 5, the PM56 cultural paper production line of Nine Dragons Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. The main equipment of the paper machine was provided by Yuli of Taiwan, and the headbox was provided by Valmet of Finland. The paper machine width was 7,250 mm, the design speed was 1,000 m/min, and the annual production capacity of high - grade cultural paper was 250,000 tons. Another cultural paper production line, PM55, is under construction and is expected to be put into operation by the end of this year [9]. - Nine Dragons Paper settled in Tieshan Port, Beihai City in December 2020. The total investment of the project, including upstream and downstream industries, was about 35 billion yuan. It is a 7.95 - million - ton forest - pulp - paper integration and intelligent packaging full - industrial - chain project built in two phases, which started production in 2023 and is expected to be fully completed in 2025 [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures - spot price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference, inter - period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [16][29][33]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation for the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July indicated a "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential post - export slumps. Short - term, the bond market is suppressed by export, economic fundamentals, commodity recovery, and rising risk appetite, but is supported by the expected loose funds in August. It may enter a volatile phase, and attention should be paid to economic data, anti - involution measures, and the actual implementation of exemption extensions on August 12 [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Due to better - than - expected export data and the rebound of the A - share market, treasury bond futures rose in the morning and then fell back in the afternoon, with all varieties closing slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate on Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, with the long - end yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.6875%, down 0.95bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose, and funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. There were 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan. The short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable with a slight increase [10] 2. Industry News - **Trade Data**: In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.8%. The trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan. The total trade value with the US was 2.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [13] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: In July, the central bank's various tools achieved a net investment of 236.5 billion yuan, 419.5 billion yuan less than the previous month. Analysts believe that the central bank has switched its primary goal to promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and stabilizing growth, and quasi - fiscal tools may be the core link for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 7, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and changes in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report provides data on the term structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the weighted interest rate changes of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [35]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Domestic Market - Zhengzhou cotton futures adjusted with position reduction and contract switching. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low - basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales were at CF09 + 1500 and above, picked up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) in North and South Xinjiang was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' supply was reported around 1550 - 1750, picked up in the inland [7]. - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a drop of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning mills were still limiting production. Due to losses in cotton yarn, the price - concession was not large, and the decline in Xinjiang spinning mills was relatively larger. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth continued to have insufficient transactions. The sampling orders of fabric mills were less than the same period of previous years, and there were few actual orders, mostly for rigid demand. It was expected that the factory production would remain sluggish in early August, and fabric mills would still produce conventional varieties, with improvement expected to start in mid - August [7]. International Market - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period of the previous year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period of the previous year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period of the previous year), and the lint - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period of the previous year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained a range - bound shock [8]. Overall Market Outlook - There was still more than a month until the new cotton was listed. The market expected the opening price would not be higher than 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to a lint processing cost of around 13,500 yuan/ton. The downstream industry was still weak, and the finished - product inventory of fabric mills was still high, but there was an increase in local sampling orders, and the marginal deterioration of the downstream slowed down. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market stabilized with shocks. The near - month contracts were under pressure as they were approaching delivery and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports totaled 170.741 billion US dollars (169.680 billion US dollars in the same period of the previous year), a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 11.604 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.162 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][18]