021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 3. Core View - The short - term rebound of domestic soybean meal is mainly due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. Once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may have a supplementary decline, especially for the 05 contract priced by Brazilian soybean costs. Short - term operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support of the outer market [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3099, the closing price was 3092, down 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 38,860 and an open interest change of - 27,028; for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3069, the closing price was 3076, up 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 173,725 and an open interest change of 2,427; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2782, the closing price was 2774, down 8 or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 1,075,551 and an open interest change of 37,990 [6]. - **Outer Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the outer market had a slight correction, with the main contract close to 1070 cents. The recent rebound was due to reaching a support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending inventory, as well as good export sales. However, the pressure comes from the approaching South American harvest. Some institutions have raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The outer market may test the support at 1050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Last week, domestic soybean meal rebounded due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. The overall bull market in commodities has boosted bullish sentiment, but once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may decline. The 05 contract is mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. Short - cycle operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the outer market support [6]. 4.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul is "satisfactory to very good". The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3,180 kg, a significant increase from last season's 2,009 kg. If the weather remains good, the state's soybean production may reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the planned 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the planting rate of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 77%, compared with 65% last week and 88% in the same period last year [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures decreased in volume. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 - 31, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes in Kashgar and Northern Xinjiang were different [7]. - **Downstream Market**: The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price of some conventional products in the inland area had limited increase, and downstream resistance to price hikes was obvious. The sales of the cotton greige cloth market were still dull, and the price was difficult to follow the increase. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7]. - **Domestic Market Analysis**: In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season increased significantly year - on - year, the overall supply pressure was not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sale smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure was also not strong. It was confirmed that the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season would decrease. Downstream spinning mills' operating rates were stable with a slight decline, and the finished - product inventory pressure was not large. In the short term, the bullish sentiment had been released, and the market would mainly fluctuate with reduced volume approaching the holiday [8] 3. Industry News - As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 6.2036 million tons (27,482,811 bales), an increase of 41,700 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1306 million tons (27,157,031 bales), an increase of 41,500 tons, and the inland inspection volume was 40,800 tons (183,468 bales) [9]. - In 2025, the national cotton sown area was 44.687 million mu, an increase of 2.113 million mu (5.0% year - on - year). The unit yield was 148.6 kg/mu, an increase of 3.8 kg/mu (2.6% year - on - year). The output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons (7.7% year - on - year) [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, various contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates (US dollar against RMB and Indian rupee) [14][16][18]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.780 | 112.910 | 112.510 | 112.560 | -0.270 | -0.2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, with the主力 March contract up 0.66% to 15.30 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures also rose, with the主力 March contract up 0.76% to $435.20 per ton. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season boosted sugar prices, but raw sugar remains in a sideways consolidation [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed at 5,269 yuan per ton, up 54 yuan or 1.04%, with a reduction of 10,734 positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained flat. The rumor of sugar storage has no further news, and Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward momentum without more positive stimuli. The 01 contract has a negative basis, which is favorable for delivery, and it faces greater pressure to continue rising without more positives [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,364 yuan/ton | 33 | 0.62% | 23,794 | -4,556 | | SR605 | 5,269 yuan/ton | 54 | 1.04% | 455,396 | -10,734 | | US Sugar 03 | 15.30 cents/pound | 0.10 | 0.66% | 434,178 | -5,537 | | US Sugar 05 | 14.89 cents/pound | 0.07 | 0.47% | 197,454 | 120 | [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, and London ICE white sugar futures also rose. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season supported sugar prices, and raw sugar is in a sideways trend [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed higher with reduced positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained stable. Without more positive news about the rumored sugar storage, Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward impetus. The 01 contract has a negative basis, and it is difficult to rise further without more positives [8]. Group 5: Industry News - Agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado predicts that sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season will be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season. Brazil's total sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons. The region's cane crushing volume is expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 595 million tons. The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to drop to 47% from 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills started operation in Yunnan. This week, 2 - 3 more are expected to start. As of now, 35 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 season in Yunnan, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected cane - crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day [9]. - The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar will be extended until December 2026 to protect the domestic sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The recovery of domestic raw sugar production is the main reason for this policy adjustment. The department will strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides charts on spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and open interest of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract, with data sources mainly from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [11][14][19]

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase, but demand has weakened after the Winter Solstice. The futures market is under pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts due to increased supply, but the 03 contract may be relatively favorable after the Spring Festival, with increased bottom - oscillation frequency. The progress of the epidemic needs continuous tracking [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 25th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell in a volatile manner, closing down. The highest was 11,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,410 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,460 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,496 lots to 347,337 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.58 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than last year, increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. Due to the continuous cooling, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased, and terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. However, after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The anti - dumping tax on imported pork from the EU has a limited impact [9] 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided 3. Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week - As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week - As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week, a weekly increase of 0.42%, up 1.37 kg from last month, a monthly increase of 1.06%, and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [14]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot SCFIS index rebounded slightly by 5.2% to 1,589.2 points this week. The price increase in mid - and late December was well - implemented, with full cabins and some voyages over - booked in the second - last week of December. CMA CGM announced a price increase for the Asia - Europe route in January, but the actual price implementation of some shipping companies was lower than the announced increase. The market may have an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush, with potential upside for the February contract and opportunities for shorting the April contract in the off - season and a positive spread between the 02 and 04 contracts [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index rose 5.2% to 1,589.2 points this week. The price increase in December was well - implemented, but the actual price of some shipping companies in January was lower than the announced increase. There may be an upside for the February contract, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities for the April contract and the 02 - 04 positive spread [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Market Conditions**: From December 15th to 19th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with some long - haul routes seeing rising freight rates. China's November exports in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars in the first 11 months. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 3.1% on December 19th. The eurozone's December business activity growth slowed, and the European route's freight rate declined slightly. The Mediterranean route's freight rate increased, and the North American route's freight rate also rose [9][10]. - **Shipping Company Policies**: Multiple shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd, announced price increases and additional fees for various routes [10]. - **Geopolitical News**: The Israeli military killed several Hamas members in Rafah, and there were reports about the connection between armed militants in Rafah tunnels and Hamas. The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation, but Maersk later denied it [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS for the European route increased from 1,510.56 on December 15th to 1,589.2 on December 22nd, a rise of 5.2%. The SCFIS for the US West route increased from 924.36 to 962.1, a rise of 4.1% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of various EC contracts on December 25th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume, are presented in Table 1 [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - WTI主力: Opened at $58.47, closed at $58.4, highest at $58.75, lowest at $58.13, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 9.64 million lots [6] - Brent主力: Opened at $61.97, closed at $61.84, highest at $62.22, lowest at $61.55, down 0.05%, with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots [6] - SC主力: Opened at 444 yuan/barrel, closed at 442.7 yuan/barrel, highest at 444.5 yuan/barrel, lowest at 440.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 4.59 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term fundamentals are neutral, and the market is trading the US sanctions on Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in surplus, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoints - US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil directly affect about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types such as those from Russia or Iran [7] - Venezuelan export disruptions have a greater impact on the Chinese asphalt market than on the crude oil market. The asphalt situation can be used to judge Venezuelan exports [7] - Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continue to decline, refinery crude input reaches the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil products are relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing. This is unfavorable for maintaining high refinery operations, and the data is neutral [7] - In the medium term, crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [7] Group 4: Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be the same as in 2024, about 516 million tons. Oil consumption has increased by more than 1 million barrels per day annually in the past two years, and may reach 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [8] - US officials: The White House has ordered its troops to focus almost entirely on enforcing isolation measures on Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [8] - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov: There is currently no plan to arrange a phone call between Putin and Trump [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data includes global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][14][21] - Data sources are EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]