Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货生猪日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and the second-round fattening and holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% month-on-month compared with the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining flat. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter was average, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell increased in some regions. On the demand side, after the current spot price rebounded to a high level, the second-round fattening is mainly on the sidelines. As the weather continues to cool, the terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. The pickling and sausage-making in the middle and late months may increase slightly. Overall, the spot market will be mainly volatile, while the futures market will be weak in the medium and long term and may rebound in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 6th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then fluctuated narrowly after hitting a low and rebounding, and closed down at the end of the session. The highest was 11,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,940 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 917 lots to 351,356 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 6th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.79 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was -34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig purchased as a piglet was -258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - **Utilization Rate**: As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the same period last year [12]. - **Price Difference**: As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [12]. - **Cost**: As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [12]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [12]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [12].
建信期货MEG日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Report type: MEG Daily Report [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Currently, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol remains weak, but with macro - level stimulus, the ethylene glycol market price is expected to be mainly on the strong side [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3924 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 4004 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume was 189,773 lots, and the open interest was 355,469 lots. The opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on the 6th was 3910 yuan/ton, the highest was 3929 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3865 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 3902 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Industry News - Oil price: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased significantly, and international oil prices continued to fall. However, gasoline inventories dropped to the lowest level in three years, limiting the decline. On November 5th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 was $59.6 per barrel, down $0.96 or 1.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 was $63.52 per barrel, down $0.92 or 1.43% [8] - Ethylene glycol market: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 3998 - 3999 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. As of November 6th, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 529,200 tons, an increase of 84,700 tons from the previous period [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16][18]
建信期货沥青日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Industry: Asphalt [1][2] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - With oil price adjustments, the asphalt market is facing weak supply and demand and may continue to decline [7]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The asphalt futures prices showed significant declines. For example, BU2601 closed at 3109 yuan/ton, down 2.05%, and BU2512 closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 1.61%. The decline in futures prices is negative for spot prices [6]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in the Northeast, Shandong, and South China regions continued to fall, while those in other regions remained relatively stable. The overall开工 load rate is expected to remain basically flat due to the offset between production increases and decreases in different refineries. Demand is seasonally weakening, with rigid demand shrinking in the Northeast and Northwest, limited demand growth in North China and Shandong, and slow resource consumption in the South. Insufficient funds are still the core factor restricting project progress, and actual demand continues to be weaker than expected [6]. 4.2 Industry News - No industry news content is provided in the report. 4.3 Data Overview - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3050 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The futures price decline led to active selling in the market, and the local supply increased due to the resumption of production by Shengxing [10]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3290 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Market demand is weak, and Sinopec's refineries in Maoming and Guangzhou may adjust prices downwards. Social inventory traders have lowered their spot quotes to lock in terminal demand in advance [10].
建信期货原油日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly, but refined oil inventories declined, with a neutral impact. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which provides some support to the supply side but cannot change the oversupply situation. The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, leading to a rebound in oil prices. After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $59.64 per barrel, down 1.52%; Brent closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 1.38%; SC closed at 460.4 yuan per barrel, down 0.37%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 26.38 million lots, 33.45 million lots, and 9.28 million lots respectively [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a bearish strategy, short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - India's Reliance Industries, usually a major oil importer, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes. After U.S. sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 1.69 million barrels per day [8] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels last week due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, higher than market expectations [8] - Commodity trader Mercuria said that an oversupply is slowly forming and may impact the market in the next few months [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI and Oman spot prices, global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [11][12][15][22]
建信期货棉花日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures closed higher with fluctuations. For example, CF2601 opened at 13,535 yuan/ton, closed at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2605 opened at 13,545 yuan/ton, closed at 13,615 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2609 opened at 13,715 yuan/ton, closed at 13,785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton had various prices and basis quotes [7] - Pure cotton yarn trading was mediocre. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were weaker than the previous two weeks. The grey fabric market had poor production and sales, with no large orders and difficult access to export orders [8] Operation Suggestions - In the domestic market, Xinjiang seed cotton procurement is approaching the end, with short - term driving forces weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and low - basis transactions are good. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is rigid demand. From November 10, 2025, the import tariff rate of US cotton quota will drop from 26% to 11%. The overall trading center is expected to move up slowly with fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of alternative delivery goods for cotton futures starting from the 2026/27 production year. For out - of - range color grades due to natural variation during the re - evaluation period, the premium and discount will refer to the "2025 November Saw - ginned Fine - staple Cotton Quality Price Difference Table" issued by the China Cotton Association [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various price spreads and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polysilicon dated November 07, 2025, by the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main polysilicon contract was strong first and then weak. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09%. The trading volume was 256,104 lots, and the open interest was 122,244 lots, with a net decrease of 2,818 lots [4] - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - The profit repair of polysilicon has curbed the active production reduction. The polysilicon output in October was 137,000 tons (68GW downstream). In November, the devices in the southwest production area actively reduced production, and the monthly supply was about 120,000 tons (60GW). The downstream demand lacked an increase, and the terminal demand was still weak due to "rush installation" and policy uncertainties. The imbalance between supply and demand has not been reversed. The spot price was stagnant. There was news that a polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform was being planned, but the details of the acquisition plan were still under discussion. The futures price dropped during the session. Although there were policy expectations, the funds were cautious and did not rush in, and the price fluctuated within a range (net long position decreased by 3,193 lots) [4] Group 3: Market News - On November 06, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,790 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics was 9.66GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative new installed capacity of photovoltaics was 240.27GW [5]
建信期货股指日评-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:51
报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 7 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 1.2 后市展望: 外围市场方面,美国总统特朗普周三表示股市将创下更多"历史新高",必 须尽快重启政府,美股有所反弹,美国最高法院多名法官质疑特朗普关税政策, 认为其关税政策已超越职权范围。国内方面,9 月经济数据显示基本面压力进一 步加深,社零消费、固定资产投资等均低于预期,固定资产投资同比增速由正转 负,房地产投资跌幅进一步扩大,有待政策提振。政策方面,四中全会公报上确 认了十五五规划内容,提振信心的同时也为未来市场风格带来政策指引。流动性 方面,两融余额持续 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:51
行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 11 月 7 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价:东莞各厂三级菜油 01+630,东莞各厂一级菜油 01+730。 华东市场一级豆油基差价格:一豆:1 ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 13:04
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current fundamentals of iron ore show an expectation of increased supply and weakening demand due to the profit constraints of downstream steel enterprises, leading to a weak overall fundamental situation and a downward trend in ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear main operating logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprise profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a historically low level, an arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 5, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opening lower and then rising slightly, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on November 5. For example, the RB2601 contract closed at 3024 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the I2601 contract closed at 776 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on November 5. The long - short position difference of the I2601 contract was - 7,262, with a deviation of - 2.06% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 5, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained unchanged from the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering the cumulative shipments of 109.784 billion tons in the past four weeks, a 3.78% increase compared with the previous four - week period, it is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrivals in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be sent in November, which may suppress the prices of far - month iron ore contracts [10][11]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production has continued to decline and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron production will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but there is a divergence from the pig iron production data, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. Considering the cooling weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous period and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous period and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. - On the afternoon of October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for the improvement and development of China - Canada relations. The Chinese side is willing to work with the Canadian side to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volumes, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volumes, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly production of the five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26][28][29][35][40][45]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 12:56
Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The end - of - year peak season is approaching, market expectations are turning positive, and shipping companies are continuing to raise their quotes for November and December. However, considering the current general demand and the decline of the futures underlying SCFIS index, the price increase may not be fully implemented. Nevertheless, the trend of bottoming out and rebounding is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates within the year may have appeared. The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and complex, and the Red Sea is expected to remain difficult to resume shipping in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: With the arrival of the year - end peak season, shipping companies are raising 11 and 12 - month quotes. For example, Maersk's large - container quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the first and second weeks of November are $2380 and $2210 respectively. Mainstream shipping companies' quotes in November range from $2535 - $3000, CMA CGM's November quote is between $2520 - $3546 and further rises to $3752 - $4008 in December. But demand is general and the SCFIS index has declined, so the price increase may not fully materialize [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Transport Market**: From October 27 to 31, the market was favorable, transport demand was stable, and most route freight rates rose, driving the comprehensive index up. On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1550.70 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In October, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, the highest since May 2024. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $1983/TEU, up 12.4% [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping** - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from October 27; SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided the trading data of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on November 5, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20]