Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Coke and coking coal futures have declined due to the accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may be volatile and bullish after a period of correction and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the resilience of the spot market, the lag effect of the transfer from steel profits to raw material costs, and whether subsequent steel production data confirms the expectation of accelerated production cuts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On November 5th, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures turned to volatile recovery after 4 consecutive trading days of volatile decline. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1753 yuan/ton and 1268.5 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.03% and 0.47%. The trading volumes were 19,107 lots and 807,948 lots respectively, and the positions decreased by 391 lots and 737 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.05 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan respectively [5]. - In the black - series futures on November 5th, the long - short deviation degrees of RB2601, HC2601, SS2512, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 were - 2.68%, 0.37%, - 1.65%, 1.90%, 3.17%, and - 2.06% respectively [6]. - On November 5th, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1750 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1615 yuan/ton, with no change; in Linfen, it was 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; in Handan, it was 1580 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 5th, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the coke 2601 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days and was close to a dead cross; the daily MACD red column of the coking coal 2601 contract narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the successful third - round price increase of coke spot. The coal prices have generally risen due to the low - temperature weather in most parts of the north and the stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level. Although coking coal imports have recovered, the year - on - year decline from January to September is still more than 6%, and the coking coal spot price has significantly increased [9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of now, Shanxi Province has fully completed the shutdown and elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, with a cumulative shutdown and elimination of over 90 million tons of 4.3 - meter coke oven capacity and a cumulative reduction of 44.24 million tons of excess coking capacity [10]. - In the first 10 months of this year, the total issuance of local government bonds nationwide was approximately 9.1062 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 23%. The issuance of local government bonds accelerated significantly this year, mainly concentrated in the first half. Since July, the monthly issuance scale has declined month by month, and the issuance in October was about 560 billion yuan [10]. - On November 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [10]. - Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States have been suspended. The additional 15% tariff on imported coking coal from the United States has been suspended, but the 3% import tariff and 10% additional tariff remain, bringing the current tariff on imported coking coal from the United States to 13%. As of September, China imported 2.9088 million tons of coking coal from the United States [10]. - Hengyuan Coal & Electricity plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Hongneng Coal Industry and Changsheng Energy held by Shaanxi Black Cat with its own funds of 439.86 million yuan and assume the creditor's rights of 1.137 billion yuan to the target companies. The acquisition may increase the company's resource reserves [10][11]. - Kailuan Co., Ltd. stated that its main business includes coal mining, raw coal washing and processing, coal product sales, coking, and the production and sales of coal - chemical products. In the reporting period, the operating cost rate increased by 15.27% compared with the second quarter. The profit in the third quarter decreased compared with the second quarter due to factors such as changes in coal mine geological conditions and the squeeze on profit margins in the coal - chemical business [11]. - In September, Indonesia's coke exports continued to recover, with both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates exceeding 10%. In September, Indonesia's coke exports were 657,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.62% and a month - on - month increase of 17.53% [11]. - Many Wall Street analysts believe that due to the high financing costs, the current liquidity shortage in the US money market may last until November, which may force the Federal Reserve to take emergency measures to enhance liquidity before officially stopping the balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [11]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the summary price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke, the national daily average hot - metal output, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operation rate of sample mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and the basis of Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][17][18][24][26][27].
建信期货铜期货日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:15
Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper price bottomed out and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 84,900 during the day, and the total open interest decreased by 4,052. The US dollar index above 100 and the overnight slump in overseas stock markets pressured the copper price, causing it to return to the mid - October trading range. The spot price dropped by 1,255 to 85,335, the spot premium rose by 25, and downstream short - term centralized restocking occurred. The spot import loss narrowed to around 520, and the LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 30.45. The domestic spot showed resistance to decline when the copper price fell. It is expected that the copper price will stop falling around 85,000 as downstream demand is released and the US dollar index is difficult to have a unilateral upward trend [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper price bottomed out and rebounded. The main contract hit a low of 84,900 during the day, with a 4,052 decrease in total open interest. The US dollar index above 100 and the overnight slump in overseas stock markets increased selling sentiment, pushing the copper price back to the mid - October range. The spot price dropped by 1,255 to 85,335, the spot premium rose by 25, and downstream short - term restocking took place. The spot import loss narrowed to around 520, and the LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 30.45. The domestic spot was resistant to decline. It is expected that the copper price will stop falling around 85,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - Kinterra Capital and its subsidiary received a non - binding letter of intent from the US Export - Import Bank for up to $200 million in debt financing. $180 million will be used to restart the Pumpkin Hollow underground copper mine in Nevada, and $20 million for technology R & D of the Southwest open - pit project. The mine has invested over $1 billion in infrastructure, is expected to restart underground mining in Q2 2026, and will gradually achieve an annual domestic copper supply of about 60 million pounds (about 27,200 tons) after production [11]. - Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons from the previous 1.34 - 1.37 million tons. It still plans to exceed last year's 1.321 million tons. The company emphasized the output growth at the Ministro Hales mine and the role of the Rajo|nca project at the Salvador mine in increasing production. The CEO said the adjustment would not affect the 2030 target of 1.7 million tons per year [11][12]
碳酸锂期货日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:08
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots, but funds have not returned. Spot prices are more resistant to decline than futures. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand in this field. In the short term, futures prices will move closer to spot prices. The speculation on the mining end is unlikely to materialize in the short term. Due to the supply inflection point and continuous inventory reduction, the spot is firm, and it is difficult for futures prices to break through the lower limit. Futures prices are expected to rebound [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots. The spot price dropped by 400 to 80,500, showing resistance to decline compared to futures. Australian ore dropped by 20, mica ore dropped by 30, ternary materials remained flat, lithium iron phosphate dropped by 90 - 100, and the electrolyte rose by 600 - 1250. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand. Futures prices are expected to rebound due to the weak follow - up decline of the spot and the firm spot under the influence of supply and inventory factors [9] 2. Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 43,000 tons of carbonate lithium in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September, laying a foundation for further capacity expansion [12] - Hainan Mining revealed that the CIF cost of 5.5% grade lithium concentrate from its Buguni lithium mine transported to Hainan is about $750/ton. Its lithium hydroxide products are undergoing certification and sample testing with domestic and foreign customers, and relevant government approvals are in progress. The company also announced a technical renovation plan to add carbonization and potassium removal facilities at the back - end of the existing 20,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line. After the renovation, which takes about half a year, it can flexibly convert part of the capacity to produce battery - grade carbonate lithium, achieving a product combination of "20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide" or "10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide + 8,000 tons of carbonate lithium" to respond to market changes and improve profitability [12]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:08
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Shanghai Zinc main contract 2512 closed at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with reduced volume and positions. The supply of domestic zinc ore is decreasing, and the zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The import zinc ore processing fee has also peaked and declined, and the import of zinc ore is still at a loss. The production of zinc ingots may be restricted by the decline of domestic zinc ore processing fees and the tightening of raw material supply. The 0 - 3 Back structure is 138.78, and the LME zinc inventory is flat at 33,825 tons. The tight supply pattern and the overall optimistic macro - environment strongly support the LME zinc price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, and the focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the ore - tight logic, which supports the zinc price. The Shanghai Zinc has rebounded weakly at a low level, and the upper track of the short - term Bollinger Band forms a suppression [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - For SHFE Zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,585 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,630 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,470 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.26%, with a position of 7,745 lots and a decrease of 840 lots. - For SHFE Zinc 2512 (the main contract), the opening price was 22,605 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,650 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,685 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,505 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 112,477 lots and a decrease of 4,446 lots. - For SHFE Zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,680 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,690 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,720 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 71,495 lots and an increase of 1,162 lots [7]. - **Supply and Price Analysis**: Domestic northern mines are seasonally reducing production, and some mines are actively controlling production after completing their annual plans. The domestic zinc ore supply is decreasing, and the zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The import zinc ore processing fee has also declined. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from a low level, the import of zinc ore is still at a loss, and the price advantage of domestic ore is prominent. With the decline of domestic zinc ore processing fees and the tightening of raw material supply, zinc ingot production may be restricted [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions on November 5, 2025**: - The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,505 - 22,640 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,565 - 22,670 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,435 - 22,570 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, Baiyin was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,515 - 22,610 yuan/ton. The conventional brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Anning was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,410 - 22,590 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,600 - 22,700 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,390 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 23,400 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,390 - 22,535 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, the holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing were quoted at a discount of 115 - 75 yuan/ton, and in the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing were quoted at a discount of 115 - 85 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, but no specific data analysis is given [11][12].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:40
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For soda ash, the supply remains high, the开工 rate declines slightly, and inventory decreases marginally. The downstream market mainly replenishes inventory at low prices, and the glass market continues to face weak supply and demand. With the arrival of winter, there is insufficient driving force in the supply - demand aspect, and the pattern of oversupply may continue. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For glass, although the production limit in Shahe has been implemented, the actual situation is below expectations. Coupled with the arrival of the off - season, there is no new driving force in the market. The short - term bullish sentiment from the Shahe production halt has been digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in the near term, and if there is no new macro - level positive news, the downward trend is difficult to reverse [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On November 5, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,195 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08%, with a daily reduction of 36,997 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The enterprise production and sales tend to balance, and inventory fluctuates little. The weekly production increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, remaining at a high level. The soda ash plant maintenance is at a high level in the same period. In late October, the shipments of Chinese soda ash enterprises continued to recover, with a total shipment of 757,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The production of float glass remained stable, but four coal - fired production lines in Shahe are planned to be shut down for cold repair, and the production of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons, at a relatively low level in the past six months [8]. Glass - **Market Data**: The four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass market is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continued to rise. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, the completion data is weak, and the recovery of float glass demand may not be sustainable [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][12][15]
建信期货豆粕日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:36
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
白糖日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:32
1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 6, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with an open interest of 367,492 contracts, a decrease of 1,330 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,393 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 0.75%, with an open interest of 107,964 contracts, an increase of 5,015 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents or 3.00%, with an open interest of 478,904 contracts, an increase of 3,720 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 13.82 cents/pound, down 0.41 cents or 2.88%, with an open interest of 166,382 contracts, an increase of 1,289 contracts [7] Market Analysis - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures fell sharply. The ICE London white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton. Overseas financial markets were volatile overnight. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, leading to a government shutdown, which cast a shadow over the economic outlook. The US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks and commodities generally declined, dragging down raw sugar - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with a decrease of 1,330 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,580 yuan/ton. The domestic market fundamentals were stable. Zhengzhou sugar followed the decline of raw sugar, indicating that it was difficult to break through the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level. From a capital perspective, speculative short - sellers significantly increased their positions [7][8] 3. Industry News Brazil - Conab reported that from 2024 to the first half of 2025, adverse climate conditions such as water shortages, unstable rainfall, and high temperatures in the sugarcane - growing season in central - southern Brazil affected the 2025/26 sugarcane production - In 2025/26, Brazil's sugarcane planting area is expected to be 8.97 million hectares, a 2.4% increase from 2024/25. However, the average yield per hectare is expected to be 74.26 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. The increase in planting area cannot offset the loss caused by the decline in yield per hectare - The estimated sugarcane production in the current season is 666.4 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from 2024/25 and a 0.4% decrease from the previous forecast of 668.8 million tons. Despite the decrease in sugarcane supply, Conab still expects sugar production to be 45 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase, which would be the second - highest in history after the 2023/24 season's 45.68 million tons - The total production of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 36.2 billion liters, a 2.8% year - on - year decrease. The decrease is mainly due to a 9.5% reduction in sugarcane ethanol production (expected to drop to 26.55 billion liters), while corn ethanol production is expected to increase by 22.6% to 9.61 billion liters. Among the total, anhydrous ethanol is expected to be 13.58 billion liters, and hydrous ethanol is expected to be 22.16 billion liters [9] India - On November 4, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the first sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons. After deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [10] 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][14][23]
建信期货国债日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic fundamentals in China have been weakening since June, with investment accelerating its decline and exports being the main support. However, the export leading indicators in October were significantly weaker, suggesting that the front - loading of exports may have exhausted some future demand. With weak domestic demand, there is still considerable pressure on the fundamentals, and market expectations for monetary easing may rise again [11]. - Currently, the central bank is implementing a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Based on past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. Overall, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are market over - adjustments due to short - term disturbances, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares opened lower and closed higher, suppressing the bond market, which fluctuated downward. Most treasury bond futures declined. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.789%, down 0.1bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 557.7 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan. Additionally, a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was conducted to offset the maturity of the same - term reverse repurchase. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 1.16bp to 1.4378%, and the medium - and long - term funding was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.62% and 1.63% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - The central bank's release of the liquidity injection data for various tools in October showed that the net injection through open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations since January this year, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. On November 5, the central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, which was an equivalent renewal considering the 700 - billion - yuan maturity of the same - term variety in the same month. Market institutions generally expect the central bank to conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation in November, and are optimistic about the continued net injection of outright reverse repurchases in that month [13]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" entered its 35th day on November 4, tying the longest "shutdown" record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case on the legality of Trump's tariff policy this Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to restrict rare - earth exports, the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the correct approaches. The China - EU export control dialogue and consultation were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on November 5, including contract information such as previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentions the spread between main - contract treasury bond futures across different periods and varieties, as well as the trend of main - contract treasury bond futures [6]. - **Money Market**: Although no specific data content is provided, it is mentioned that the data source is Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [24].
建信期货棉花日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:27
Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]
建信期货生猪日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:26
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 06 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 据涌益资讯数据显示,截止 10 月 30 日,自繁自养生猪头均利润-34.5 元/头, 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 ...