Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current egg market is weak, with high supply pressure and low prices. The weak and sluggish spot market is expected to continue for some time. Futures prices have also declined significantly after the National Day holiday. The de - stocking of the current inventory is expected to be a long - term process, and the impact of cold - storage eggs cannot be underestimated. It is recommended to adopt a phased short - selling strategy and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts showed different trends. The 2601 contract closed at 3204, down 28 (-0.87%); the 2511 contract closed at 2855, up 8 (0.28%); the 2512 contract closed at 3019, down 9 (-0.30%). The national egg spot price was volatile, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.03 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [7][8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a phased short - selling strategy and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. 2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of September, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.368 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In September, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.2 million, less than that in August and significantly less than the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the third week of September to October 9, the national hen culling volume showed a trend of increasing after August and remaining stable in September. As of October 9, the average culling age was 499 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg production area average prices, egg 11 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread [12][13][15]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA and MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea and Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is stable, downstream demand is mainly replenishing at low - prices, and the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The pattern of oversupply has not been effectively improved. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the subsequent price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For glass, after the festival, it maintains a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, with increased inventory pressure. The anti - involution macro - sentiment has ebbed, but there are expectations for the important meeting at the end of October. The short - term price is dominated by fundamentals and runs at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On October 15, the closing price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the position decreased by 7021 lots. The SA605 contract closed at 1319 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, and the position increased by 3087 lots [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis**: The weekly production of soda ash decreased slightly by 0.66 tons to 77.08 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The demand was relatively stable as the output of float glass increased slightly and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. The factory inventory continued to decline to 165.15 tons. There is no anti - involution policy yet, but there are macro - expectations for the October meeting [8]. - **Glass Futures Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1129 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton with a 1.74% decrease, and the position increased by 55157 lots. The FG603 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton with a 1.15% decrease, and the position increased by 2164 lots [7]. - **Glass Fundamental Analysis**: Float glass production remained stable due to the peak season, and photovoltaic glass was in a weak - balanced state. After the festival, the supply was loose, demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased, suppressing the price rebound. There are expectations for the meeting at the end of October [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [11][16][17]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook Market Review - On October 15, the Wind All A index rose 1.49% with over 4300 stocks up. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50% respectively. Small and medium - cap stocks performed better. Index futures were stronger than spot, with IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts up 1.54%, 1.32%, 1.86%, and 1.81% respectively [6] Market Outlook - International: Tensions between China and the US have eased, but near the APEC meeting, the game between the two sides has intensified. Trump's statements show the complexity of the situation. - Domestic: China's export data in September showed resilience, but exports to the US declined. Exports in Q4 may face pressure due to the high - base effect of last year's end - of - year rush exports. - For the A - share market: The previous low - valuation advantage has disappeared, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings higher risks. Tariff disturbances may not end soon, and market volatility may continue. The technology sector's rebound drove the Shanghai Composite Index back to 3900, but the shrinkage of the whole - market up - trend needs to be observed for sustainability. In operation, short - term arbitrage strategies can be used, and in terms of market style, short - term attention can be paid to defensive sectors and policy - beneficiary sectors, and the style may turn to technology growth near the Fourth Plenary Session [8][9] Group 3: Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures, including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume and open interest of various indexes and futures [11][12][13] Group 4: Industry News - China's CPI in September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer market was stable, and PPI's decline narrowed. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the US threat of 100% tariffs, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue [30]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, but the sugar price is still considered weak after breaking through the support level and rebounding without a significant breakthrough [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures followed the raw sugar to rebound, but the amplitude was small, with weak spot prices and cautious long - position holders [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5403 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.06%, with a position of 433,188 contracts, an increase of 11,032 contracts; SR605 closed at 5371 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 0.06%, with a position of 80,846 contracts, an increase of 4,544 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 15.87 cents/pound, up 0.26 cents or 1.67%, with a position of 468,073 contracts, an increase of 5,674 contracts; US sugar 05 closed at 15.36 cents/pound, up 0.20 cents or 1.32%, with a position of 141,836 contracts, an increase of 2,493 contracts [7] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Main Contract**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply below the 5400 - yuan mark. The 01 contract closed at 5397 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan or 1.41%, with an increase in positions of 32,133 contracts. Domestic spot prices in production areas were lowered, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5800 yuan/ton and Kunming sugar at 5690 yuan/ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazilian Sugarcane Data**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared to the previous season. From April to September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.5 tons from the previous season. The sugarcane quality (measured by ATR) decreased by 0.8% [9] - **Sugar Factory Startup in Inner Mongolia**: As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operation in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start tomorrow. The white sugar price of Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai in the 2025/26 sugar - making season is 5850 yuan/ton, and the soft sugar price is 5950 yuan/ton [9] - **Indian Sugar Exports**: India exported 775,000 tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year (October 2024 to September 2025). The largest export destination was Djibouti, with an export volume of 146,000 tons, followed by Somalia with 135,000 tons and Sri Lanka with 134,000 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - **Data Graphs**: The report presents multiple data graphs, including spot price trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources from Wind, Zhengshang Institute, and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [12][14][16]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase to drive the market under the low - price background [9] - The spot market has both supply and demand increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. The spot price is likely to remain in a weakly fluctuating state [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and then fell in a fluctuating manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 6,157 lots to 281,593 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 15th, the average price of the national outer three - yuan was 11.05 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. On the demand side, the cost of secondary fattening is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the decline in pen utilization. The terminal lacks obvious positive support, but as the weather turns cooler, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have increased slightly, but the overall increase is limited. On October 15th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,300 heads, an increase of 2,500 heads from the previous day, 9,700 heads week - on - week, and 14,200 heads month - on - month [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Profit and Cost**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head. The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - **Price Difference**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17] - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [17]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment remains weak due to various negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. It is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared, but a rebound may need the re - warming of easing expectations. The optimal allocation opportunity for the bond market may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing all treasury bond futures to turn down. Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market edged up slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rising 0.45bp to 1.757% by 16:30 [8][9] - **Funds Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 106.5 billion yuan. The short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the economic data in September weakened marginally, it had limited impact on the market. The bond market may face more negatives in October, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared. The optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today [13] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter [14] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing [14] - The issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been successfully completed [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on October 15, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: Mentions the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Includes the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 二、行情要闻 每日报告 一、行 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 16, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different sectors such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 206,727 lots, and the open interest was 144,190 lots, a net decrease of 18,484 lots [4] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable, basis fluctuations weakened, and capital divergence converged. Supply - side pressure persisted, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The oversupply pressure remained, and there was no de - stocking drive in the market. The policy side entered a vacuum period. Future support was mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed. Fundamentally, it was difficult to provide significant drivers, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4] 4. Market News - On October 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,357 lots, a net decrease of 840 lots compared to the previous trading day. The organic silicon DMC market remained stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still had some pre - sold orders as support. Currently, the number of overhauling manufacturers was large, and some manufacturers planned to enter overhaul, leading to a reduction in market supply [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On October 14, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated lower, hit new lows since September 15 and September 11 respectively, then rebounded significantly, recovering the day's losses and rising. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1654.5 yuan/ton and 1153.5 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.36% and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes were 22,849 lots and 968,042 lots, and the open interests were 42,439 lots and 607,030 lots, with increases of 485 lots and 17,621 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.26 billion yuan and 2.97 billion yuan [5]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts narrowed slightly [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On October 14, the flat - price indices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1495 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, while there was no change in other regions [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: After China's counter - measures, the US authorities threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China but later lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There were unconfirmed reports about the procurement of imported iron ore by Sinomine Resource Group [10]. - Fundamentals - Coke: Since late May, the coke output of independent coking plants has decreased slightly for 4 consecutive weeks. The coke output of steel mills has increased significantly from the low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has oscillated lower to a new low since mid - July and then rebounded slightly. Steel mill inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, reached a new high since late May, and then started to destock. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. Tonnage coke profit has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on October 1 [10]. - Fundamentals - Coking Coal: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. In the past 16 weeks, the inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have dropped significantly, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has dropped significantly from a new high since the end of January, steel mill inventory has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June, and port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. After coking plants completed restocking and then significantly destocked, the prices of major coking coal spot markets continued to be strong [11]. - Overall: Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility. The boost from the first - round increase in coke spot prices is weakening, and the strong coking coal spot market cannot currently drive the coking coal futures to strengthen again. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US relationship, the supply change in the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the re - inflation rhythm differences among precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [11]. Group 5: Industry News - The relevant departments will investigate the impact of the US 301 investigation on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries and related supply chains and may introduce corresponding measures [12]. - In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2032 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 203.2 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period; 1875 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 187.5 million tons, a 3.2% increase; and 1961 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 196.1 million tons, an 8.5% decrease. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1588 million tons, a 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period [12][13]. - From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, with year - on - year increases of over 30%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total new - vehicle sales [13]. - Baotailong's stock price had abnormal fluctuations. The company's coke oven maintenance was completed, and its affiliated coal mine was approved as a formal mine, with normal production and operation activities [13]. - The freight volume of ST Guangwu's Hongnao Railway in September was 2.6349 million tons, a 45.61% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the US tariff increase, stating that China is ready to fight and also open to talks, and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [13]. - Huaneng Hydropower's power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 96.266 billion kWh, a 11.90% year - on - year increase, and the on - grid electricity was 95.49 billion kWh, a 12.02% year - on - year increase [13]. - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express line was successfully opened on October 13, which will bring significant time and cost advantages to China - Europe trade [13][14]. - The World Steel Association predicted that the global steel demand in 2025 will be flat at about 1.75 billion tons compared with 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons in 2026 [14]. - In September 2025, 12 large state - owned ports in India imported 15.587 million tons of coal, a 14.08% year - on - year and 12.07% month - on - month increase, reaching a three - month high [14]. - Rio Tinto's equity iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 74.168 million tons, a 1% year - on - year and 1% quarter - on - quarter increase; the shipment volume was 73.804 million tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease and 4% quarter - on - quarter increase [14]. - On October 14, the German electricity price soared to the highest level since February, reaching 156.14 euros per MWh [14]. - OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The average OPEC+ crude oil production in September 2025 was 43.05 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from August. It is expected that the global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [14]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, production and inventory of sample mines, and the basis differences between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract [17][19][22][28][29]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. During the negotiation between Sinomine Resource Group and BHP, the market's risk aversion sentiment supported the iron ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, combined with the recent escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may fluctuate weakly, but it is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening higher and then moving in a volatile manner, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes rose by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a golden - cross trend. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: There are reports that Sinomine Resource Group has suspended the purchase of imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB. During the negotiation stage, the supply uncertainty has given a certain boost to the ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, China's bargaining power over the ore price will be further enhanced, and the market sentiment may decline. - Fundamentals: In September, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil both increased, partly due to the end - of - quarter volume rush. Considering the regular decline after the end - of - quarter volume rush, the shipments in October are expected to decline. The arrivals last week increased significantly and are expected to gradually decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has declined slightly for three consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into the loss state. The subsequent output growth space is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. After the festival, the production and demand data of the five major steel products declined significantly, especially the demand for construction steel may have been affected by the holiday lag, and the subsequent demand repair situation needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - festival replenishment efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually decline after the festival and return to the state of on - demand replenishment. [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method on October 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on that day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent US announcement of additional tariffs and other restrictive measures on China, stating that China's stance on the tariff war and trade war is consistent. China is ready to fight to the end if necessary and is also open to talks. China and the US have extensive common interests and broad cooperation space, and cooperation benefits both sides while confrontation harms both. The two sides have always maintained communication under the framework of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and had a working - level meeting the previous day. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which mentioned supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of infrastructure such as heating and computing power, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of central and state organs. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22].