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建信期货钢材日评-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:17
Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel futures market has shifted from an upward trend to a downward one due to concerns about high social steel inventories, geopolitical factors, and currency exchange rate fluctuations. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, and investors should focus on the spot market and production data [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 4, prices in a few spot markets for rebar and hot-rolled coils declined. Rebar prices in Wuxi, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, and Changsha dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil prices in Nanjing, Jinan, Wuxi, Guangzhou, and Shenyang decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline after a death cross the previous day. The daily MACD red bars of these contracts have been narrowing for three consecutive days [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - After a significant rebound due to eased geopolitical tensions and improved terminal demand, the steel futures market has reversed its trend. The focus has shifted to the high social steel inventories, leading to a sharp decline [10]. - The strengthening of the US dollar, weakening of the RMB, and reduced foreign capital inflows have negatively impacted the pricing of industrial products related to domestic demand, including black metals [10][11]. - The recent sharp decline in iron ore and coking coal prices is mainly due to the accelerated production cuts by steel mills in the past two weeks, which has led to a lack of cost support for steel and a full manifestation of the negative feedback effect [11]. - The steel futures market is expected to continue its downward trend, and it is difficult to find support at previous lows. Investors should monitor the spot market and this week's production data [11]. 3.2 Industry News - From January to September 2025, the construction industry continued to contract, while the manufacturing industry grew steadily. The real estate market remained sluggish, infrastructure investment growth slowed, and various manufacturing sectors showed different trends [12]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's steel product structure has been optimized. The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has increased from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024, and is expected to exceed 50% in 2025, while the proportion used in construction has decreased from 58% to 50% and is still declining [12]. - At the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, but was still higher than at the beginning of the year and the same period last year [12]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. has made breakthroughs in the research and application of ultra-high-strength steel for automobiles and is actively developing aluminum and magnesium alloys for automobiles [12]. - Xining Special Steel's controlling shareholder, Tianjin Jianlong, pledged 50.2397 million shares to support the company's production and operations [12]. - China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. announced its semi - annual profit distribution plan for 2025 [12][13]. - As of October 31, the Ganqimao Port had completed a certain amount of import and export freight volume, mainly including coal, copper concentrate, and manganese ore [13]. - China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs on rare earth exports, emphasizing dialogue and cooperation [13]. - OPEC expects positive oil demand and plans to maintain supply - demand balance, with a projected increase in oil demand of 1.3 million barrels per day this year [13]. - Russian coal enterprises suffered a net loss of 263.2 billion rubles from January to August 2025, with a lower proportion of profitable enterprises compared to the same period last year [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including spot prices, social inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates of steel products, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][19][23][26][29][33]
建信期货棉花日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:54
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices faced downward pressure and declined. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton was 14,841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices for 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard), with some lower prices around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The basis for different qualities of cotton varied [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn was lackluster. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were worse than the previous two weeks. The fabric market had low production and sales, with no large orders and difficulties in obtaining export orders [7]. Operational Suggestions - In the domestic market, the purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton was mostly ending. The cost of new cotton was relatively high, providing support for Zhengzhou cotton prices, but there was also hedging pressure at high prices. The downstream demand was weak but had some resilience, and the inventory of finished products was not high. With the Sino - US trade in a period of easing, the export competitiveness of textile and clothing enterprises might improve. The trading center of cotton prices was expected to slowly move up while the hedging pressure from the peak season of new cotton listing and processing needed to be digested [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 5.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher than last year and 15.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average. The national processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than last year but 1.5 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The national sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher than last year and 11.0 percentage points higher than the four - year average [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][29]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:54
Report Information - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - Although the actual demand may not support a large price increase, the shipping rates are likely to have bottomed out and are expected to recover. It is recommended to maintain a bullish position on the December contract [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Expectations: With the arrival of the year - end peak season, market expectations have improved, and shipping companies have continued to raise their quotes for November and December. However, considering the current average demand and the decline of the SCFIS index, the price increase may not fully materialize [8]. - Regional Situation: The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, and the Red Sea is unlikely to resume normal shipping in the short term [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to maintain a bullish position on the December contract and buy on dips [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From October 27 to 31, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed positive trends. The overall transportation demand was stable, and the freight rates of most routes continued to rise, driving up the comprehensive index [9]. - European Route: In October, the euro - zone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, and the freight rates in the European route continued to increase. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Route: The market conditions were similar to those of the European route. The supply - demand fundamentals were stable, and the spot booking prices continued to rise. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $1983/TEU, up 12.4% from the previous period [9]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS Index: On November 3, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1208.71, down 7.9% from October 27; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1267.15, up 14.4% from October 27 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - Futures Data: The report provides trading data for various contracts on November 4, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, and trading volume [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [17][18][20]
建信期货沥青日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:54
Report Information - Report Type: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The adjustment of oil prices and the weak supply and demand of asphalt may lead to a continued decline in asphalt prices [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The BU2601 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3193 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3245 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%, and a trading volume of 174,100 lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3198 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3248 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3182 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 26,400 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan and Chongqing regions have declined, while the spot prices of asphalt in other regions are relatively stable. The continuous decline of asphalt futures has a negative impact on the spot price of asphalt [6]. - Supply: Some refineries have production reduction or shutdown plans, but the increase in production of other refineries will form a hedge, and the overall operating load rate is expected to remain basically the same [6]. - Demand: The demand side has begun to decline seasonally. The road projects in the Northeast and Northwest are coming to an end, and the rigid demand for asphalt is shrinking rapidly. The demand in North China and Shandong is only supported by some key projects, and the demand increment is scarce. The construction in the South is stable, but the slow consumption of resources highlights the weak demand. The lack of funds is still the core factor restricting the project progress, and the actual demand for asphalt continues to be weaker than expected [6]. 2. Industry News No industry news is provided in the report. 3. Data Overview - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3350 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price adjustment of Sinopec's asphalt road transportation has a negative impact on the market sentiment, and the decline of asphalt prices in the north has led to some resources seizing the South China sales area, resulting in a sporadic decline in the social inventory quotation in South China [10]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3130 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. Although the international oil price has risen slightly, the asphalt futures have continued to decline. The spot and contracts sold by futures - spot traders and the pre - sale of forward contracts by refineries have led to an oversupply of market offers and a continuous decline in asphalt prices [10].
建信期货工业硅日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:54
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price continued to decline after the mid - day session. Although some spot prices increased slightly within the range, the strong driving force for industrial silicon itself is limited. The fourth - quarter benefits focus on production cuts in the southwest. The intraday short - term accelerated decline started in the afternoon due to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar index and the weakening of multiple equity markets, but the decline space is expected to be limited [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price declined continuously after the mid - day session. The Si2601 closed at 8885 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.31%. The trading volume was 379,786 lots, and the open interest was 242,153 lots, with a net increase of 13,885 lots [4]. Spot Price - The spot price increased slightly, with the price range remaining unchanged. The 553 price range was 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the 421 price range was 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [4]. Future Outlook - Some spot prices increased slightly within the range, but the strong driving force for industrial silicon itself is limited. The fourth - quarter benefits focus on production cuts in the southwest. The intraday short - term accelerated decline started in the afternoon. The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index led to a sharp decline in the prices of commodities priced in foreign markets, and multiple equity markets also declined, spreading strong macro - hedging risks. However, the overall market is still within the adjustment range since August, and the net long positions of the 01 contract increased by 16,008 lots. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [4]. 2. Market News - On November 4, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 45,823 lots, a net decrease of 338 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [5]. - In September, the industrial silicon export volume was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [5].
建信期货纸浆日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:48
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5,274 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,288 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range for softwood pulp was 4,870 - 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's October pulp offers: Softwood pulp Yinxing was $680/ton, down $20 from the previous month; unbleached kraft pulp Jinxing was $590/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, unchanged [8]. - European pulp inventory and consumption in September: Inventory was 722,300 tons, up 3% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year; consumption was 813,200 tons, up 16.3% month - on - month and down 1.6% year - on - year [8]. - As of October 30, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased 0.85% month - on - month, and the overall shipping speed was stable [8]. Operation Suggestions - The downstream base paper performance remains differentiated, with slow growth in pulp market demand and a late start to the traditional peak season. The market demand for offset paper is generally weak. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the total profit of the papermaking and paper products industry continued to narrow. In the short term, the market focuses on the potential boost to the futures price from the low number of old warehouse receipts after cancellation, but the rebound space is limited under the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to try shorting on rallies [8]. 3. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data for January - September 2025: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a 3.2% year - on - year increase. For the papermaking and paper products industry, the operating income was 1.03757 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the operating cost was 916.95 billion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the total profit was 27.12 billion yuan, down 15.6% year - on - year [9]. - Company performance: Sun Paper's operating income was 28.936 billion yuan, down 6.58% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.66% year - on - year; Wuzhou Special Paper's operating income was 6.457 billion yuan, up 18.13% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, down 44.66% year - on - year; Xianhe Co., Ltd.'s operating income was 9.063 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 778 million yuan, down 4.77% year - on - year; Hengfeng Paper's operating income was 2.039 billion yuan, up 6.29% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, up 34.76% year - on - year [9]
建信期货股指日评-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the 15th Five - Year Plan, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. But in the short - term, after the positive news of the Sino - US meeting and the disclosure of the third - quarter reports, policy expectations have weakened, market sentiment is flat, and the market may maintain a volatile consolidation near the key pressure level of 4000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style still focuses on the dumbbell strategy, with a balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [7][8] 4. Market Review - On November 4, the Wind All - A Index declined with shrinking volume, opening with a downward trend and slightly recovering in the late trading, closing down 1.03%, with only 30% of stocks rising. CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.75%, 0.11%, 1.67%, and 1.36% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the index futures market, futures performed weaker than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.99%, 0.28%, 2.00%, and 1.54% respectively (based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 5. Market Outlook - **External Market**: The leaders of China and the United States met in Busan, South Korea, reaching consensus on issues such as "fentanyl tariffs", export controls, shipbuilding, fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual enterprise cases. However, since market expectations were already high, the market weakened after the positive news was confirmed [7] - **Domestic Market**: September economic data showed increased fundamental pressure, with social retail consumption and fixed - asset investment lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Policy support is needed. The Fourth Plenary Session communique confirmed the content of the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the detailed content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on the 28th, boosting confidence and providing policy guidance for the future market style. The margin trading balance has continuously broken historical records and is currently fluctuating at a high level. A potential interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown of the trend of household deposits moving into the market needs further observation [7] 6. Industry News - On October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for improving China - Canada relations. On November 3, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China is willing to work with Canada to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, aiming to bring China - Canada relations back on a healthy, stable, and sustainable track [26]
建信期货豆粕日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between China and the US on soybean procurement is expected to reduce the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year from oversupply to a tight balance, leaving room for the US CBOT soybeans to rise. The increase in China's import cost of soybeans will drive up the price of soybean meal. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view [6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined slightly on the day. The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fell, with the main contract at 1125 cents. If China purchases 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years as the US stated, it will have a significant impact on the soybean market [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view. However, the uncertainty lies in the implementation of the policy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The report was not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [9] - According to analysts' estimates, as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91%, and the corn harvest rate reached 83%. It is expected that the US will have a record - high corn harvest this year, and soybeans will also have a good harvest [10]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:47
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of eggs is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin. The 12 - contract fell 0.16%. In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg - laying start and culling. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate at a low level in November. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, due to the early stage of accelerated culling, the high - supply situation will continue for some time. The weak demand also suppresses the spot price. The upside is limited, and the accelerated culling restricts the downside. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year, and weekly culling data should be monitored. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2601 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3341, the opening price was 3347, the highest price was 3369, the lowest price was 3326, the closing price was 3337, down 4 or 0.12%. The trading volume was 98,689, and the open interest was 165,925 with an open - interest change of 155,516. [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 2892, the opening price was 2904, the highest price was 2946, the lowest price was 2892, the closing price was 2928, up 36 or 1.24%. The trading volume was 35,540, and the open interest change was - 45. [7] - For the 2512 egg contract, the pre - settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3157, the highest price was 3189, the lowest price was 3132, the closing price was 3144, down 5 or 0.16%. The trading volume was 248,353, the open interest was 166,976, and the open - interest change was - 10,026. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Monitor weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a 0.2% month - on - month increase, with growth for 9 consecutive months and a 6.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year. [9] - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks by sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past three months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volumes were 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. As of October 23, the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from last week and 1 day later than last month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 12 - contract, the basis of the 11 - contract, and the price difference between the 12 - 02 contracts, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [11][15][16]
建信期货生猪日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:45
Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: November 05, 2025 - Report Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - fattening is weak [8]. - The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, is likely to trend weakly with fluctuations due to the potential slight increase in supply before the Spring Festival, concentrated second - fattening in October, farmers' reluctance to sell, and continuous release of production capacity [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,685 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 5,066 lots to 362,390 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.97 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - fattening and weight - holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November is 26.66 million heads, a 3.27% decrease from the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average is flat, with general enthusiasm for slaughter at the beginning of the month [8]. - **Demand Analysis**: After the spot price rebounded to a high level, second - fattening has turned to a wait - and - see attitude. With the cooling weather, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. Slaughterhouse orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume fluctuate slightly. Mid - to late - month bacon curing and sausage making may increase slightly. On November 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 158,000 heads, down 600 from the previous day, 4,600 week - on - week, and 12,300 month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points and the same as the previous year [16]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [16]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg [16]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September (a monthly decline of 0.23%) and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.75%) [16]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [16].