Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货股指日评-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:43
研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 11 月 5 日,万得全 A 缩量上涨,低开后震荡走高,尾盘有所回落,收涨 0.34%, 全市超 3000 支个股上涨;沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.19%、 0.26%、0.39%,上证 50 收盘下跌 0.17%,中小盘股表现更优。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望: 外围市场方面,昨日美股市场多重 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:42
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | ...
建信期货MEG日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:41
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) [1] - Research Team Members: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2601 closed at 3,914 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan, with a position of 353,616 lots, a decrease of 3,174 lots; EG2605 closed at 4,005 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a position of 33,215 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. On the 5th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 3,880 yuan/ton, reached a high of 3,928 yuan/ton, a low of 3,874 yuan/ton, and settled at 3,902 yuan/ton, closing at 3,914 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 191,177 lots, and the position was 353,616 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current supply - demand expectation of ethylene glycol remains weak, but after the recent continuous decline in ethylene glycol prices, the low - level buying has increased. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a volatile consolidation [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil Market: Manufacturing data weakness and a stronger US dollar have pressured the US - dollar - denominated crude oil futures market. The market is digesting OPEC+'s decision to increase production in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. International oil prices fell after four consecutive days of slight increases. On Tuesday (November 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.56 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.80% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $59.94 - $61.03 per barrel; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.44 per barrel, down $0.45 or 0.69% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $63.82 - $64.8 per barrel [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 3,987 - 3,989 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day; next - week's spot negotiation price was 3,985 - 3,989 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 3,985 - 3,987 yuan/ton. The current - week spot basis was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, next - week's spot basis was at a premium of 68 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. Today, ethylene glycol futures rebounded slightly, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang rebounded slightly, and the basis negotiation weakened slightly. The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang market was 3,960 - 3,990 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated at a low level, the market price in Zhangjiagang fluctuated narrowly, and the intraday negotiation and trading were relatively light [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Charts: Include charts such as MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main - contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]
建信期货沥青日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:41
行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1: 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量(万手) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2601 | 3177 | 3166 | 3195 | 3153 | -1.55 | 17.85 | | BU2512 | 3174 | 3164 | 3192 | 3151 | -1.40 | 2.08 | 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-6063 ...
建信期货原油日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:38
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - API data shows a significant 6.52 million - barrel increase in US crude oil inventories, with gasoline and diesel inventories falling. The data is neutral, and overnight oil prices declined slightly [6] - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which supports the supply - side but can't change the oversupply situation. The impact is short - term [7] - The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, causing oil prices to rebound. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US sanctions on Russia. The market is in a wait - and - see state and may increase purchases of Middle - East crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [7] - After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. Operators should maintain a short - selling mindset, try short - selling on rebounds or conduct reverse spreads [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - WTI: Opened at $61.03, closed at $60.43, with a high of $61.03, a low of $59.94, a decline of 1.02%, and a trading volume of 1.936 million lots [6] - Brent: Opened at $64.73, closed at $64.35, with a high of $64.80, a low of $63.82, a decline of 0.83%, and a trading volume of 2.657 million lots [6] - SC: Opened at 460.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 463.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 465.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 459 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.32%, and a trading volume of 818,000 lots [6] Operation Suggestions - Maintain a short - selling mindset, try short - selling on rebounds or conduct reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Energy giant Gunvor is worried about oil market oversupply [8] - US media reported that the Trump administration is considering controlling Venezuelan oil fields [8] - Saudi Aramco CEO expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025, and demand growth will remain strong in 2026 [8] - Libyan oil minister said the current production is close to 1.4 million barrels per day, aiming to increase it to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, 1.6 million barrels per day next year, and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [8] - HSBC Bank predicts a supply surplus of 2.7 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 (previously 3 million barrels per day), and an average annual supply surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 2.4 million barrels per day) [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18][22]
建信期货PTA日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:38
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:37
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 06 日 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现:工业硅期货价格开盘后震荡走高。Si2601 收盘价 9020 元/吨,跌幅 0.06%,成交量 276196 手,持仓量 232849 手,净减 9304 手。 现货价格:现货价格小幅 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of polysilicon has not been reversed, with spot prices remaining stagnant and the 01 contract price fluctuating widely within a range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon showed a weak and narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,390 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.44%. The trading volume was 175,236 lots, and the open interest was 125,062 lots, with a net decrease of 3,814 lots [4] - Spot Price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future Outlook: The profit repair of polysilicon restrains the active production reduction. The polysilicon output in October was 137,000 tons (equivalent to 68GW downstream). In November, the equipment in the southwest production area actively reduced production, and the monthly supply was about 120,000 tons (equivalent to 60GW). Downstream demand lacks increment, and terminal demand remains weak in the situation of "rush installation" and policy bearishness [4] 3.2 Market News - On November 05, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,730 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW [5]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:10
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the pressure of downstream steel mills' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel mills' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar-iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 4, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated downward, opened lower, then oscillated and declined, and oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore external quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - The KDJ indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after forming a death cross yesterday; the red bar of the MACD indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks were 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, it is expected that the subsequent shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that the arrival volume in November will oscillate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of being low in the first half and high in the second half. In addition, according to Rio Tinto, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea will be made in November. Although the short-term shipment volume is not high and the actual impact is limited, under the expectation of increased supply, the prices of far-month iron ore contracts may be suppressed [10][11]. - Demand: The current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, with a significant decline recently. This is mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, and more than half of the steel mills are in a loss - making state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. In terms of the five major steel products, both the production and demand of steel have recovered, which deviates from the pig iron output data. It is necessary to observe the sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery. Considering the gradually cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Currently, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, and the inventory available days are at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now increased to 145 million tons. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous week and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous week and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of steel and iron ore futures contracts, the inventory and shipment data of iron ore, and the production and consumption data of steel products, with data sources from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange websites, and Mysteel [5][8][15]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:18
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] Market Review - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai Zinc futures opened with a gap - up. The contract 2512 closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.82%. It showed a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions, with positions decreasing by 2,016 to 116,923 lots. Other contracts like 2511 and 2601 also had price increases [7]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: Domestic northern mines are seasonally reducing production, and some mines are actively controlling production after completing their annual plans. Domestic zinc ore supply is on a downward trend, and zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The imported zinc ore processing fee in October also started to decline, and zinc ore imports are still at a loss, making domestic ore more price - competitive. With smelters' winter storage demand, domestic TC is under more pressure. Although smelters currently have relatively sufficient raw material inventories, zinc ingot production may be restricted due to the decline in domestic zinc ore processing fees and tightened raw material supply [7]. - **LME Inventory and Market Support**: The 0 - 3 Back extreme value has significantly declined. There was a 225 - ton delivery at LME Hong Kong and a 1,700 - ton reduction in Singapore. LME zinc inventory is below 35,000 tons. The tight supply pattern and an overall optimistic macro - environment strongly support the London zinc price. Overall, with the realization of export increments, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the impact of the tight ore situation on zinc prices, which provides some support, while weak consumption restricts the upside. Shanghai zinc has a weak rebound from a low level [7]. Industry News - **Price Ranges in Different Markets on November 4, 2025**: In the mainstream market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,610 - 22,810 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand at 22,670 - 22,890 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc at 22,540 - 22,740 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket against the SMM average price, with few quotes against the market [8]. - **Regional Market Details**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,620 - 22,800 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton against the Shanghai spot price. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,540 - 22,720 yuan/ton, and the 0 ordinary zinc was at a discount of 10 - 90 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,520 - 22,750 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton against the Shanghai spot price [8]. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13]