行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | | | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） 持仓量（张） ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continues to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises have increased maintenance due to lower-than-expected peak-season demand, the expected reduction in maintenance losses from September to November and new capacity planned for the fourth quarter will keep supply pressure high. After the holiday, social inventories have increased, and while there is still some demand resilience in October, new orders are limited, making it difficult to reduce inventories. With the upward revision of crude oil supply expectations and potential accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, cost support is weak, and polyolefins are under pressure [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (-0.98%), with a trading volume of 280,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 6,917 lots to 564,785 lots. PP2601 closed at 6,693 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-0.61%), with an increase in open interest of 8,393 lots to 643,300 lots. Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening trading sentiment. Traders' quotes continued to weaken, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand with a cautious attitude [6]. 2. Industry News - On October 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 840,000 tons, a 20,000-ton increase (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared to 880,000 tons in the same period last year. - The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,980 - 7,250 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,200 - 7,680 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,200 - 6,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream products faced cost pressure, and with the decline in propylene prices, downstream factories were cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand. Producers mainly sold at discounted prices, and the quoted price decline was relatively significant. - The PP market continued to decline, with some prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated narrowly with significant upward resistance, further increasing market concerns. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,550 - 6,620 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,550 - 6,680 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,530 - 6,680 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - Not summarized in detail as only data sources and chart names are provided [11][12][14][15][16][17][18]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - Due to insufficient cost support and a weak supply - demand structure, ethylene glycol (MEG) is expected to decline in a volatile manner [7] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: EG2601 closed at 4,111 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan, with a position of 341,973 contracts, a decrease of 7,162 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4,185 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan, with a position of 7,954 contracts, an increase of 896 contracts. On the 13th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4,106 yuan, with a high of 4,132 yuan, a low of 4,068 yuan, a settlement price of 4,112 yuan, and a total volume of 146,257 contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - Oil prices: Israel - Hamas cease - fire reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and Trump's tweet intensified trade tensions. WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $58.9 per barrel, down $2.61 or 4.24% from the previous trading day; Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange settled at $62.73 per barrel, down $2.49 or 3.82% from the previous trading day [8] - MEG market: The spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang MEG market this week was 4,180 - 4,181 yuan/ton, up 115.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation prices for late October and late November were 4,181 - 4,183 yuan/ton and 4,179 - 4,181 yuan/ton respectively. The current spot basis had a premium of 69 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601, the late - October basis had a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the late - November basis had a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry operating rate: The operating rate of the ethylene glycol industry was 65.33%, up 0.41 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was 69.09%, up 0.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the operating rate of syngas - based ethylene glycol remained flat at 59.65% [8] 4.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices, PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Change the previous bullish view to a sideways view. The near - term market focuses on the reality of high supply and high inventory of soybean meal. However, with the 23% import tariff on US soybeans, the depletion of soybean inventory at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter will support the futures market. Also, there is potential upside as US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards, making it difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [6] - Future attention points include when the US resumes report publication and the production adjustments in the report, the results of China - US trade negotiations, and whether Argentina's export policy will be liberalized again, which will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - Domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed different price movements. For example, the price of the bean粕2601 contract increased by 0.27%, the bean粕2603 contract by 0.38%, and the bean粕2511 contract by 0.76% [6] - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1010 cents. Due to the recent China - US trade disputes, the CBOT soybean futures dropped significantly on Friday night and then stabilized on Sunday [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: - The current view is changed from bullish to sideways. Although the near - term market faces high supply and high inventory, the depletion of soybean inventory at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter and the potential reduction in US soybean yield will support the market [6] - Pay attention to the resumption of US report publication, China - US trade negotiation results, and Argentina's export policy, which will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of the week of October 7, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 37% in the previous week and 43% in the same period last year [9] - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season had reached 21.22% of the expected total, up from 15.03% in the previous week and 8.81% in the same period last year [9] - Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area in 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% sowing progress in the same period last year [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the sentiment in the bond market remained weak. [11] - In October, the bond market may face a situation of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus potentially boosting credit expansion expectations, the resurgence of anti - involution, and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Positives may include economic data slowdown, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to implement. [11][12] - In October, after the negatives are gradually digested, the bond market is expected to stabilize. However, a rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations, which could be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deterioration in trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Due to the escalation of Sino - US frictions over the weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment was boosted, and treasury bond futures opened higher and rose in the morning session. In the afternoon, as the A - share market recovered, the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed. [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities increased, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term maturities, mostly around 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.759%, up 1.6bp. [9] - At the beginning of the month, the funds were stable and abundant. There were no reverse - repurchase maturities today, and the central bank injected 137.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, and short - term fund rates showed mixed movements. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.5bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 3bp to 1.61% compared with last weekend. [10] 3.1.2 Conclusion - The bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are digested. The rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations. It is recommended to wait for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items, stating that it is a proper measure to improve the export - control system in accordance with laws and regulations. [13] - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, including charging special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, aiming to maintain a fair competition environment in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets. [13] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation regarding Trump's latest tariff threat, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China. [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months, and he is open to a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in future meetings. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that labor - market weakness and inflation slowdown led to the interest - rate cut last month and signaled possible further cuts. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on October 13, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - **Money Market**: It includes information on the SHIBOR term - structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged - repurchase weighted - rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase rate change. [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) is provided. [35]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 每日报告 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，13 日生猪主力 2601 合约小幅高开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price opened low and closed high. Short - term macro risks had a limited impact. The futures market had little difference in expectations, and the basis had been at par recently. The market would continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply pressure remained high, demand had no significant increase, and the policy was in a vacuum period. Future support mainly relied on southwest production cuts and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price opened low and closed high. The Si2511 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The trading volume was 241,553 lots, and the open interest was 165,722 lots, with a net decrease of 1,313 lots [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9250 yuan/ton, and 8900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang was 9550 yuan/ton, and 9950 yuan/ton in Sichuan [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The spot market was in a stalemate. The supply pressure remained high, with the weekly output in October staying at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with monthly demands of 148,000 tons for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloys. The market had no inventory - reduction drive. The market would continue to fluctuate within the current range in the short term [4]. 3.2 Market News - On October 13, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,854 lots, a net increase of 573 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In August 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and an 18% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 491,400 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase [5]. - The average spot price of the domestic polysilicon market was 47,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The polysilicon market was in a stage of game between supply - demand imbalance and policy intervention, with high inventory pressure, lower - than - expected production cuts, difficult price transmission downstream, and a light trading atmosphere. It was expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with the average price of P - type silicon materials remaining around 44,000 yuan/ton and N - type materials between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of geopolitical factors and iron ore industry policy factors, coal and coke futures show resistance during the oscillatory rebound but generally tend to rebound. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the iron ore spot market supply, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - large - scale asset allocation [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On October 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of coke futures continued to oscillate and recover, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures briefly rose and then gave back the day's gains. The closing price of J2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 16,954 lots and a position of 41,385 lots, a decrease of 499 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1161 yuan/ton, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 700,936 lots and a position of 596,453 lots, an increase of 27,482 lots [5]. - The long - short comparison and deviation of the top 20 positions in the black - series futures on October 10, 2025, showed different trends. For example, RB2601 had a long - short difference of 11,708 lots with a deviation of 0.99%, and HC2601 had a long - short difference of - 12,648 lots with a deviation of - 1.30% [6]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On October 10, 2025, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions showed different trends, such as a 70 - yuan increase in Pingdingshan and a 60 - yuan decrease in Linfen [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2601 contract continued to diverge, with the J - value continuing to rise, the K - value turning up, and the D - value continuing to decline. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2601 contract also continued to diverge, with the J - value and K - value continuing to rise and the D - value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2601 contract turned slightly narrower, while that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to expand slightly [8]. 3.3 Future Outlook - In terms of news, on October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements on export controls. On October 10, the Ministry of Transport announced the collection of special port fees for US ships. There were also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore by Sinomine Resource Group. The iron ore futures rebounded after the long holiday, and whether the rebound can continue depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the recovery of steel terminal demand [9]. - Fundamentally, for coke, the output of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks since reaching a new high in late May, and the output of steel mills has increased but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, steel mill inventory has started to reduce after reaching a new high since late May, and coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on October 1. For coking coal, from January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. The inventory of mine clean coal and raw coal has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has dropped significantly from a new high since the end of January, steel mill inventory has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June, and port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With coking plants reducing inventory after replenishment, the prices of major coking coal spot markets continued to be strong [10]. 3.4 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding operators to price reasonably and promoting industry self - regulation [12]. - On October 10, 2025, the Ministry of Transport announced the collection of special port fees for US ships starting from October 14, 2025 [13]. - Reuters reported that on October 9, the Trump administration proposed to ban Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace on flights to and from the US. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested referring to relevant departments and pointed out that the US restrictions were not conducive to personnel exchanges between the two countries [13]. - On October 9, 2025, Trump reiterated the "America First" trade policy at a White House cabinet meeting, threatening to stop importing a large number of goods from China [13]. - Jizhong Energy completed the industrial and commercial change registration for the acquisition of a 49% stake in Jingneng Xilin Gol Energy Co., Ltd. [13]. - Suneng Co., Ltd. stated at a performance briefing that its operating income in the first half of the year was 5.573 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan. The performance was under pressure compared with the same period last year due to the impact of the loose coal market supply and demand and the large decline in coal prices [13]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the Taiyuan Railway Administration of China Railway transported 15.08 million tons of coal to ensure power supply [13]. - Kpler ship tracking data showed that Australia's coal exports in September 2025 were 31.4188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.63% and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The cumulative exports from January to September were 254 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91% [13]. - On September 29, 2025, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry launched an anti - dumping investigation into 300 - series and 400 - series stainless - steel cold - rolled flat products originating from or imported from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam [14]. - From January to September 2025, Mongolia's iron ore exports totaled 6.4851 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.74%, and the export value was 465 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.20% [14]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot - metal production, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the clean coal and raw coal inventory of sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal with the January contract [16][17][18][28][29][30].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Core Views - Carbonate lithium futures declined. China's export control on lithium batteries with a weight energy density of 300 Wh/kg or more had a limited negative impact on the market. However, Zangge Mining obtaining a lithium mining license and resuming production soon exerted significant pressure on the market. The decline of carbonate lithium widened in the afternoon due to the spread of bearish sentiment from the A-share market. The spot price of electric carbon remained unchanged at 73,550, Australian ore dropped by 2.5 to 827.5, and lithium mica ore fell by 25 to 1,810. The production situation of salt plants improved, and the production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica narrowed. The weekly production of carbonate lithium reached a record high of 20,635 tons this week, and the social inventory decreased by 2,024 tons. High demand offset the supply pressure, and the process of social inventory reduction continued, supporting lithium prices. It is expected that the decline space of carbonate lithium is limited [9] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures opened lower in the morning and the decline widened in the afternoon. The spot price of electric carbon remained unchanged, while the prices of Australian ore and lithium mica ore decreased. The production losses of salt plants using purchased raw materials narrowed. The weekly production of carbonate lithium reached a new high, and the social inventory decreased [9] Group 4: Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export control measures on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials. The export control will take effect on November 8, 2025 [12] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained a mining license, adding associated minerals such as lithium ore, which is of great significance to the company [12]