Report Information - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Research Analysts: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: At the beginning of the month, funds were loose, the stock market continued to adjust, and the sentiment in the bond market was okay. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term increases and long - term decreases, with narrow fluctuations in the medium and long - term. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.1bp to 1.789% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 475.3 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 117.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 0.75bp to 1.4262%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic fundamentals are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and a possible decline in exports. The market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit from wide - fiscal policies on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and allocation opportunities should be seized if there is market over - adjustment [11][12] 2. Industry News - **China's Manufacturing PMI**: China's S&P manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month. The expansion of the manufacturing PMI slowed down overall [13] - **US - China Relations**: The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [13] - **China - EU Exports**: China and the EU held export control dialogue and consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [13] - **High - level Forecast**: Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the coming years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [13] - **Exhibition Information**: The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th, and Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony [13] - **US Fed Policy**: Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts [14] - **US Government Shutdown**: As of November 4th, the US federal government's shutdown entered the 35th day, tying the longest - ever shutdown record [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on November 4th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests. It also mentions information on cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate change [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,431 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.26%, with a position increase of 5,201 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.68 cents/pound, up 0.25 cents or 1.73%, with a position increase of 6,787 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.24 cents/pound, up 0.19 cents or 1.35%, with a position increase of 1,513 contracts [7] Market Performance - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the March contract up 1.72% to 14.68 cents/pound - London ICE white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton - The sugar price rebounded technically after hitting a new low - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The 01 contract closed at 5,481 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 3,969 contracts - Domestic spot prices in production areas declined slightly. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,710 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar at 5,600 yuan/ton - The domestic market was relatively calm. Market research institutions believe that Guangxi is likely to increase production this year - Zhengzhou sugar's rebound was weak, mainly because large speculative short - sellers stopped reducing positions [7][8] Industry News India - India Ratings and Research said that the increase in sugarcane prices in Uttar Pradesh will increase sugar mills' costs by 8%. Therefore, price increases for sugar and ethanol are crucial for maintaining profits - The Uttar Pradesh government decided to raise the sugarcane guidance price (SAP) for the 2025 - 26 crushing season by 30 rupees per quintal, which may increase the production cost of sugar mills in the state by about 8%. Unless sugar and ethanol prices rise, it will pressure the profitability of sugar mills - This move raises the standard guidance price to 400 rupees per quintal, which was frozen for two years. It is expected to increase the production cost of sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 35 - 40% of India's total sugar production, by 2.5 to 3 rupees per kilogram. The impact will appear from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 as old inventories are consumed [9] Brazil - According to Unica data, in the first half of October 2025, there were 255 production units operating in the central - southern region of Brazil (3 fewer than the same period in the previous crushing season), including 234 engaged in sugarcane processing, 10 using corn to produce ethanol, and 11 flexible factories. During this period, 12 factories ended sugarcane processing - Sugarcane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a slight increase of 0.30% year - on - year, but with regional differences. The crushing volume in São Paulo state decreased by 5.04% year - on - year to 18.904 million tons, while that in other states increased by 7.88% to 15.133 million tons - Sugarcane's sugar yield (ATR) was 158.78 kg/ton, a decrease of 0.96% year - on - year - Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year. However, the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2% (47.33% in the same period last year). The declines in São Paulo and Paraná states were more significant, reaching 3.4 and 9.1 percentage points respectively - Total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a decrease of 1.17% year - on - year. Among them, anhydrous ethanol production increased by 6.93% to 772 million liters, hydrous ethanol production decreased by 5.61% to 1.241 billion liters, and corn - based ethanol production reached 370.56 million liters, an increase of 4.94% year - on - year [9][10] Data Overview Futures Trading Data - The table shows the trading volume, position changes of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures. The total trading volume was 206,336 lots, a decrease of 31,355 lots; the total long position was 247,781 lots, a decrease of 1,228 lots; the total short position was 291,926 lots, a decrease of 2,142 lots [22]

Group 1: Report Date - The report date is November 05, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon/polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Liu Youran (pulp) [1][3] Group 3: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.91%. The trading volume was 274,348 lots, and the open interest was 12,968 lots, with a net decrease of 14,968 lots [4] Group 4: Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The significant repair of polysilicon profits suppresses the willingness for active production cuts. The monthly output remains at around 130,000 tons, and the supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed. The price continued to weaken during the day. The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index led to a sharp decline in the prices of externally - priced commodities. Multiple equity markets also declined simultaneously, spreading strong macro - hedging risk signals. The fundamental situation of polysilicon itself remains weak. The previous 01 contract had a significant premium, resulting in weak price support within a narrow range. The net long positions of the 01 contract decreased by 7,983 lots, and the price is expected to oscillate in the lower half of the range [4] Group 6: Market News - On November 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5] - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5] - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its Q3 2025 report. In the third quarter, the company achieved an operating income of 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter reduction of 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash and glass, dated November 5, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly, with supply stable, inventory slightly decreasing, and potential demand changes due to production line shutdowns. Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality", with short - term price fluctuations and medium - term direction determined by fundamentals [8][9] Section Summaries 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 4, SA601 opened low and closed at 1189 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-1.73%), with 40,018 additional positions. SA605 closed at 1280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production increased by 1.70 tons to 75.76 tons. Demand at the end of October showed an increase of 2.53%. Alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.20 tons. Four coal - fired glass production lines in Shahe may affect demand, and the market may face oversupply in winter [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: FG601 closed at 1105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.18%), with 105,499 fewer positions. FG605 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [7] - **Glass Fundamentals**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will shut down. Glass supply is at a high level. Factory inventory is high, and real - estate demand is weak. The market is in a game between expectation and reality, with short - term price fluctuations [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass, including active contract price trends, weekly production, and enterprise inventory, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 6888 yuan/ton, closed at 6879 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.48%); PP2601 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.65%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Futures opened lower and fluctuated, downstream procurement was on - demand, and actual transactions were negotiated individually [6] - Supply Situation: In October, Guangxi Petrochemical's device produced products smoothly, and there are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance devices will restart, and PP maintenance losses will decline month - on - month [6] - Demand Situation: Agricultural film production reached a seasonal peak and declined, pipe demand increased first and then decreased, PP woven production was boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises focused on inventory digestion [6] - Price Trend: Polyolefin prices are expected to remain under pressure, and may be weakly supported by phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices, but will generally fluctuate in the bottom range [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On November 4, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day, compared with 72 million tons in the same period last year [7] - PE Market: PE market prices continued to be weak, with LLDPE prices in different regions ranging from 6830 - 7500 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 5830 - 5840 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some PDH device maintenance supported supply, but downstream demand declined [7] - PP Market: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices down 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and mainstream prices in different regions ranging from 6360 - 6610 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data Graphs: Include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change graphs [15][17][18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - On November 3, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went higher, with the main 2512 contract closing at 21,600 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase, hitting a new high for the year. The spot market showed that although traders in East China increased shipments, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices. The import window was closed, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the spot import loss expanding to about -2,600 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the follow - up under the support of a positive macro - environment [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Performance - On November 3, the main 2512 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,600 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [9]. - In the spot market, East China reported at par, Central China at a discount of -140, and South China at a discount of -150. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss expanded to about -2,600 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Analysis - Domestic bauxite remained tight. Mines in the north affected by environmental protection and the rainy season could resume production, but the specific time awaited government approval. The price increase of northern bauxite was expected to be limited due to high inventory and weak restocking willingness of alumina plants, while southern bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite was sluggish, and the price of Guinean bauxite was under pressure. Policy disturbances in November should be noted [9]. - Alumina remained in surplus, and the import window was open, with pressure from overseas inflows. In the north, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection requirements after heating in November and annual carbon emission verifications. The low - price situation and long - term delivery obligations put great pressure on enterprises, and the spot long - term settlement price in November was close to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, which might lead to production cuts [9]. - Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, providing strong cost support. After November, the traditional peak season basically ended, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level following Shanghai aluminum [9]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic operating capacity remained high with limited changes. The production cuts of Century Aluminum this month and the expected production cuts of Mozambique Aluminum next year might intensify the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. With positive macro - factors such as successful Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the aluminum market was expected to be strong in the follow - up [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On October 30, the second - phase alumina project of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project of State Power Investment Corporation officially started. It is planned to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and supporting facilities, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Mercuria, a global commodity trading giant, is transporting over 30,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA, presumably to meet the needs of its US customers. Mercuria's long - term holding of over 90% of LME aluminum warehouse receipts is considered the key factor for the premium of LME near - month aluminum contracts over far - month contracts [10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported cans) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested implementing different strategies for the "anti - involution" of the non - ferrous metal smelting industry, including setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals, enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals, and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalization and high added - value [10].

Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke and coking coal futures have stopped rising due to accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may experience periodic corrections, but overall it is relatively resistant to decline. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the support of steel profit repair expectations on the coking coal market [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - On November 3, the main contract 2601 of coke futures oscillated lower for three consecutive trading days, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures oscillated within a range and was relatively resistant to decline. The closing price of coke futures contract J2601 was 1771.5 yuan/ton, down 1.17%; the closing price of coking coal futures contract JM2601 was 1284.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85% [5] - In the black - series futures on November 3, in terms of the long - short positions of the top 20 in each contract, the long - short deviation degrees of different contracts varied. For example, the long - short deviation degree of SS2512 was 6.89%, and that of I2601 was - 3.74% [6] 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 3, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal prices in different regions showed different changes, with increases in Tangshan, Heze, and Pingdingshan [8] - The daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract had a dead - cross. The daily MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract began to narrow, and that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to narrow [8] 3.3 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the third round of price increases in the coke spot market. Due to low - temperature weather in most northern regions and stricter coal mine safety production inspections, coal prices have generally risen. Although the import of coking coal has recovered, it was still down by more than 6% year - on - year from January to September, and the spot price of coking coal has significantly increased [10] 3.4 Industry News - Huaxin Steel adheres to a lean production and low - inventory operation strategy. The iron ore inventory cycle is about 22 - 25 days, and the coal and coke inventory is about 10 - 15 days. The proportion of long - term coking coal contracts is about 60%. In the third quarter, the long - term coking coal contracts increased by about 50 yuan/ton compared with the second quarter, and the market coal increased by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11] - On November 3, the freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan, Ganqimaodu to Tangshan, and Xiaoyi to Rizhao showed different trends. The freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan and Ganqimaodu to Tangshan were flat, while the freight rate from Xiaoyi to Rizhao increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week [11] - In the third quarter of 2025, Yankuang Energy's revenue was 38.259 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the net profit was 2.288 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.60%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 104.957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [11] - On November 3, Mongolia's ER Company's coking coal was auctioned online. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at a price of 1040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on the 31st [11] - From October 27 to November 2, the global iron ore shipments were 32.138 million tons, a decrease of 1.745 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 million tons, a decrease of 1.667 million tons [11] - In October this year, India's total power generation decreased by 6% year - on - year to 142.45 billion kWh, and the coal - fired power generation decreased by 13.2% year - on - year to 98.38 billion kWh [12] - On November 1, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry released the reference prices for thermal coal in the first half of November 2025, with most prices lower than those in the second half of October [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [14][18][19][26][32]

Industry Information - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Core View - The US-China talks this week achieved phased results. According to the US side, China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years. This agreement is expected to significantly reduce the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, shifting from oversupply to a tight balance. The US CBOT soybeans still have some room for price increase [6]. - After the agreement, the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased significantly, driving the price of soybean meal to recover. Short-term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. However, the risk lies in the variability of the macro - policy, i.e., whether this policy will be continuously implemented and the implementation intensity [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3005, the opening price was 3018, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3015, the closing price was 3026, with a rise of 21 and a gain of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,248,829, the open interest was 1,595,045, and the open interest change was - 54,240. - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2947, the opening price was 2961, the highest price was 2986, the lowest price was 2960, the closing price was 2964, with a rise of 17 and a gain of 0.58%. The trading volume was 110,601, the open interest was 449,107, and the open interest change was - 3,049. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2949, the opening price was 2955, the highest price was 2985, the lowest price was 2949, the closing price was 2965, with a rise of 16 and a gain of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,437, the open interest was 3,708, and the open interest change was - 4,246 [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to whether China will purchase US soybeans as scheduled and whether it is a policy - based or commercial purchase [6]. 2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 due to the US government shutdown since October 1 [9]. - The soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 crop year has reached 76.13% of the estimated area, a 16.08 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the sowing progress is still slightly lower than the historical average of the same period and also lower than that of last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][18]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current national egg price is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 12 - contract rose 0.45%. [8] - In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg production start and culling. The spot price in November is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, the supply will remain high for some time as the accelerated culling is only in its early stage. The weak demand restricts the upward movement of the spot price, and the upside space is limited. The accelerated culling recently restricts the downside space. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset, and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. [8] - In the long - term, the inflection point of the fundamentals may appear as early as the beginning of next year. It is recommended to track the weekly culling data. [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2601 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3325, the opening price was 3307, the highest price was 3370, the lowest price was 3297, the closing price was 3347, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.66%. The trading volume was 127,817, the open interest was 160,757, and the change in open interest was 150,408. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2907, the opening price was 2907, the highest price was 2925, the lowest price was 2878, the closing price was 2905, with a fall of 2 and a fall rate of - 0.07%. The trading volume was 238,585, and the change in open interest was - 181. - For the 2512 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3144, the opening price was 3120, the highest price was 3179, the lowest price was 3103, the closing price was 3158, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.45%. The trading volume was 296,727, the open interest was 177,002, and the change in open interest was 421. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Track weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.368 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. [9] - The monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than the 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume was moderately low in the past eight years. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volume of chickens was 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. [9] - As of October 23, the average culling age of chickens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than the previous month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, 12 - contract seasonal trend, 11 - contract basis, and 12 - 02 spread. The data sources are Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen, as well as the research and investment center of Jianxin Futures. [11][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with the supply exceeding demand. The terminal demand is in a post - "rush installation" weak period. The market focus is on whether the fourth - quarter policies can be implemented and their actual effects, but the short - term is mostly affected by news. The 01 contract has a significant premium and is expected to run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - The polysilicon main contract price opened low and went high. The PS2601 contract closed at 56,065 yuan/ton, with a 0.18% increase. The trading volume was 215,288 lots, and the open interest was 143,844 lots, with a net increase of 1,488 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon: the transaction price range of n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the estimated polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. The output in October was higher than expected at 137,000 tons. The significant profit recovery suppresses the willingness to actively reduce production. The current monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW, and the supply - demand imbalance remains [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 03, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a 31.25% increase compared to the previous month. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its third - quarter revenue reached 1.773 billion yuan, a 24.75% year - on - year increase, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The first - three - quarter revenue was 3.243 billion yuan, a 46.00% year - on - year decrease, and the net loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight 1.57% year - on - year decrease. The net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year loss reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter loss reduction of 86.68%, indicating a positive impact of the industry environment repair on the company's profitability [5].