Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests appropriate layout of long positions as the market sentiment shows signs of warming up [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly lower and then rose continuously, turning down and fluctuating lower in the afternoon, with the gains significantly narrowing at the end. The long - end was relatively weaker, the short - end contracts saw a catch - up rise, and the forward contracts continued to over - rise, narrowing the inter - period spread. The open market had 30.9 billion yuan in maturities and 13.85 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17.05 billion yuan. Liquidity remained abundant, with the overnight price in the inter - bank market stable at around 1.3% and GC001 at around 1.5%. The capital sentiment index showed that small and medium - sized institutions and non - banks were relatively tighter, but the pressure was not significant [1] 2. Intraday News - Starting from September 29, South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists [2] - On August 5 local time, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced that the US State Department approved the sale of a batch of M777 howitzers and related equipment to Ukraine, along with maintenance services and support for this weapon, with an estimated value of $104 million [2] 3. Market Sentiment Analysis - There was a rumor of large banks buying bonds in the morning, which led to a strong market. Even without the rumor and despite the significant narrowing of gains in the afternoon, the market sentiment showed signs of warming up. The bond market was relatively desensitized to the strong performance of the stock market and commodities, maintaining gains under strong risk. Funds had continuous net subscriptions, and the net subscription scale expanded today [3] 4. Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 6, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.37 (up 0.018 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.78 (up 0.025), T2509 at 108.565 (up 0.015), and TL2509 at 119.34 (down 0.04) [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 1087 to 108,202 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 959 to 186,234 hands, T contract positions decreased by 1346 to 236,282 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 704 to 153,142 hands [4] - **Base Spreads and Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) was 0.0136 (up 0.0213), TF base spread (CTD) was 0.0031 (up 0.002), T base spread (CTD) was 0.0147 (down 0.1037), and TL base spread (CTD) was 0.1287 (down 0.21) [4] - **Transaction Volumes and Changes**: TS main contract transactions decreased by 3357 to 27,216 hands, TF main contract transactions decreased by 5520 to 47,098 hands, T main contract transactions decreased by 5077 to 64,393 hands, and TL main contract transactions decreased by 21334 to 78,797 hands [4] - **Fund Rates and Changes**: DR001 was 1.3143% (down 0.0003), DR007 was 1.4445% (down 0.0073), and DR014 was 1.4753% (down 0.0179) [4] - **Fund Transaction Amounts**: DR001 transaction amount was 2692.65767 billion yuan, DR007 was 9.570987 billion yuan, and DR014 was 1.444292 billion yuan, with no change from the previous day [4]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月6日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 今日股指震荡偏强，中证1000指数走势偏强。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升1379.87亿元。期指方面， IF、IH缩量上涨，IC、IM放量上涨，与昨日相反，短期大小盘情绪有待进一步观察确认。 重要资讯 1. 证券业稳定性保障新标准征求意见，明确组织—制度—过程"三位一体"框架。 2. 7月1-31日，全国乘用车市场零售183.4万辆，同比去年7月增长7%，较上月下降12%，今年以来累计零售 1,273.6万辆，同比增长10%。 核心观点 今日股市继续放量上行，主要受军工、机器人概念拉涨，短期情绪面依旧亢奋，游资入场驱动小盘强势，但 观察大盘走势上行已略显疲态，沪深300运行至10日均线压力位，叠加近期外部地缘风险有加剧态势，建议 谨慎为主。 策略推荐 卖出现金担保看跌期权 股指日报期指市场观察 压力位附近，警惕风偏回落 市场回顾 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0.37 | 0.19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic import quota policy, the de-stocking speed of cotton in the off-season, and the adjustment of the Sino-US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Core Contradictions - The decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts, but the tight supply - demand situation at the end of the domestic year may support prices, and the short - term trend may be volatile. Key factors to watch include import quota policies, off - season de - stocking speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 利多解读 - High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and reserve cotton has not been sold. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, with an expected tight - balance state at the end of the year. Also, the late pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5] 利空解读 - Mainland textile mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang mills'开机 is stable. Downstream finished - product inventory has slightly decreased but still faces pressure. Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak flowering and boll - setting stage, with good growth and an optimistic production outlook for the new year [8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,820, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,655, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,735, up 30 (0.15%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,845, up 20 (0.1%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,514, up 36; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120, up 35; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 35; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,085, down 65; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,766, up 57; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 536, unchanged [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 15,169, up 16 (0.11%); CCI 2227B was 13,302, up 15 (0.11%); CCI 2129B was 15,457, up 22 (0.14%); FCI Index S was 13,577, down 165 (-1.2%); FCI Index M was 13,387, down 164 (-1.21%); FCI Index L was 13,086, down 189 (-1.42%) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, except for a slight decline in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts rebounded slightly. The collective and continuous reduction of the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August by some mainstream shipping companies led to the lower opening of the futures prices. Then, some contracts rebounded as expected due to reaching short - term lows and being affected by the sentiment in the commodity market. For the future, the new weekly opening quotes of MSK have significantly declined again, and it is more likely that the EC will return to a fluctuating and slightly downward trend. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestion - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, one can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling suggestion and an entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - For cost management, when shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying suggestion and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. Market News - According to Israeli media on August 4th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "tends to expand the Israeli military's military operations in the Gaza Strip and control the entire Gaza Strip", and the Israeli cabinet will hold a decision - making meeting on this on August 5th [2]. - Some mainstream shipping companies reduced the spot cabin quotes for the European Line around mid - August today, and MSK's new weekly quotes for the European Line spot cabins declined again [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (points) | Daily Change (points) | Weekly Change (points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 209.06 | 33.50 | 3.50 | | EC2510 | 884.86 | 8.80 | 28.30 | | EC2512 | 607.36 | - 13.30 | 25.80 | | EC2602 | 805.46 | - 22.20 | 10.20 | | EC2604 | 966.86 | - 15.90 | 20.30 | [4] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2088.8 | - 1.58% | - 1.05% | EC2508 - 2512 | 398.3 | - 46.8 | 22.3 | | EC2510 | 1413.0 | - 0.62% | - 3.22% | EC2512 - 2604 | 359.5 | - 2.6 | 1.0 | | EC2512 | 1690.5 | 0.79% | - 2.56% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 757.8 | 49.4 | 93.1 | | EC2602 | 1492.4 | 1.51% | - 1.90% | EC2508 - 2510 | 675.8 | - 46.8 | 24.8 | | EC2604 | 1331.0 | 1.21% | - 2.85% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 277.5 | - 22.1 | - 2.5 | | EC2606 | 1471.6 | 1.27% | - 2.21% | EC2512 - 2602 | 198.1 | - 8.9 | - 3.3 | [6] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - For Maersk in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP on August 14th was $1760, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2960, an increase of $10. On August 21st, the opening quote for 20GP was $1560, a decrease of $120 compared to the previous week, and the opening quote for 40GP was $2600, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For MSC in mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $1820, a decrease of $180 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3040, a decrease of $300 [8]. - For CMA CGM in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $1835, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3245, a decrease of $200 [8]. - For Hapag - Lloyd in the past three weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1735, a decrease of $100/200 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2835, a decrease of $410/300 [8]. - For Evergreen in early August, the total quote for 20GP was $2355, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3560, a decrease of $100. In mid - to late August, the total quote for 20GP was $2055, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3160, a decrease of $400 [8][9]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Line (points) | 2297.86 | 2316.56 | - 18.7 | - 0.81% | | SCFIS: US West Line (points) | 1130.12 | 1284.01 | - 153.89 | - 11.99% | | SCFI: European Line (USD/TEU) | 2051 | 2090 | - 39 | - 1.87% | | SCFI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2021 | 2067 | - 46 | - 2.23% | | XSI: European Line (USD/FEU) | 3395 | 3362 | 33 | 0.98% | | XSI: US West Line (USD/FEU) | 2135 | 2166 | - 31 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index (USD/FEU) | 2229 | 2302 | - 73 | - 3.17% | [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.218 | 0.241 | - 0.023 | 0.599 | | Shanghai Port | 1.384 | 1.463 | - 0.079 | 1.578 | | Yantian Port | 0.564 | 0.895 | - 0.331 | 0.741 | | Singapore Port | 0.826 | 0.393 | 0.433 | 0.555 | | Jakarta Port | 0.841 | 1.157 | - 0.316 | 0.775 | | Long Beach Port | 1.721 | 1.818 | - 0.097 | 2.180 | | Savannah Port | 1.802 | 1.144 | 0.658 | 0.718 | [16] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | August 4, 2025 | August 3, 2025 | Daily Change | Same Period Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.853 | 15.803 | 0.05 | 15.899 | | 3000+ | 14.787 | 14.788 | - 0.001 | 15.029 | | 1000+ | 13.323 | 13.28 | 0.043 | 13.441 | | Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 12 | 13 | - 1 | 11 | [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDI composite freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices continued to decline this week, but the week - on - week decline slowed. The decline of mainstream vessel types was within 10%. - The increase in the shipment volume of certain commodities supported the demand for Panamax and Handysize vessels, causing the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices to rebound compared to the previous few days, and the week - on - week decline also slowed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Index Analysis**: On August 5, compared with the previous week, the BDI composite freight index and its sub - vessel type freight indices continued to decline, but the decline slowed. The BDI composite freight index closed at 1921 points, a week - on - week decline of 8.91%; the BCI freight index closed at 3006 points, a week - on - week decline of 13.52%; the BPI freight index closed at 1625 points, a week - on - week decline of 6.66%; the BSI freight index closed at 1279 points, a week - on - week decline of 0.16%; the BHSI freight index closed at 676 points, a week - on - week decline of 0.15% [4]. - **FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index**: On August 5, the FDI index declined across the board, but the charter rates of most routes in the FDI Handysize vessel rental market increased. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1275.93 points, a month - on - month decline of 2.17%; the FDI rental index closed at 1538.5 points, a month - on - month decline of 2.61%. Among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1572.76 points, a month - on - month decline of 6.1%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1529.08 points, a month - on - month decline of 0.3%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1502.23 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%; the FDI freight index closed at 1120.63 points, a month - on - month decline [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking - **Shipment Quantity and Vessel Usage on the Day**: On August 6, among major agricultural product shippers, Brazil used 23 vessels, Russia used 15 vessels, Argentina used 13 vessels, and Australia used 4 vessels. Among major industrial product shippers, Australia used 46 vessels, Guinea used 26 vessels, Indonesia used 41 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 14 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 10 vessels [15]. - **Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 8 vessels were used for corn, 20 for wheat, 14 for soybeans, 2 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 103 vessels were used for coal, 73 for iron ore, and 18 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 28 post - Panamax vessels, followed by 15 Supramax vessels, and finally 8 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 80 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 post - Panamax vessels, and finally 52 Supramax vessels [16]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - The latest data showed that the number of ships at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed. From July 1 to August 5, "one port decreased, and four ports increased." The number of dry bulk ships at Chinese ports increased by 14 month - on - month; the number of ships at six Australian ports decreased by 18 month - on - month; the number of ships at six Indonesian ports increased by 1 month - on - month; the number of ships at five Brazilian ports increased by 4 month - on - month; and the number of ships at one South African port increased by 1 [17]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 5, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton. On August 6, the near - term shipment quotation for Brazilian soybeans was 3970.92 yuan per ton. - On August 4, the latest quotation for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $24,595 per day. On August 5, the latest quotation for the CIF price of iron ore was $119 per thousand tons. - On August 4, the latest quotation for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $12,185 per day. On August 5, the latest quotation for the CIF price of thermal coal was 537.72 yuan per ton. - On August 5, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 677.4 points. On August 8, the quotation for 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [21].

南华贵金属日报: 降息预期回升 贵金属偏强 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月6日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场震荡回升，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约782.5元/克，+0.26%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9075元/千克，+0.82%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI为50.1，低于预期51.5，和前值50.8。美国总统特朗普表示美联储主 席是政治性的，鲍威尔降息太晚；可能很快会宣布新的美联储主席。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周四03：10，2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 ；22：00， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克线上参加佛罗里达州首席财务官协会有关货币政策的炉边谈 话；周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 周四19：00，英国央行公布利 率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告 。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340 ...

Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - **Likely Negative**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 6, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the situation is delayed, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Key Data Price Volatility - Latest closing price: 267,490 yuan/ton; price range forecast (monthly): 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton; current volatility: 14.36%; current volatility historical percentile: 26.1% [2] Futures Disk Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main Contract | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous One | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous Three | yuan/ton | 267,660 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,300 | 175 | 0.53% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0.05 | 0.63% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,000 | 900 | 0.34% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,250 | 500 | 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 180,750 | 500 | 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,250 | 1000 | 0.37% | [13] Inventory Data | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Total | ton | 7283 | - 10 | - 0.14% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Guangdong | ton | 4848 | - 84 | - 1.7% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Shanghai | ton | 1564 | 74 | 4.97% | | LME Tin Inventory: Total | ton | 1900 | - 50 | - 2.56% | [22] Other Data - Tin import profit and loss: - 14,076.93 yuan/ton, daily change 1669.38 yuan, daily change rate - 10.6% - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [23] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Go short on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 275,000 yuan/ton; sell call options (SN2509C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: Go long on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 230,000 yuan/ton; sell put options (SN2509P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies; semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China; slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing weakness; the downside space of the near - month contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - month contracts. The rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the alleviation of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts under weather speculation, and the cost - end support of Brazilian export premiums for far - month contracts. Bearish factors include the rebound of basis due to some oil mill shutdowns, the expected large soybean arrivals in August, September, and October, and the future supply uncertainty of rapeseed [6][7][9] 2. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 10.2% and a historical percentile of 7.8% (3 - year). The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% (3 - year) [3]. Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - Closing prices and daily changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3065 with no change, and the closing price of rapeseed meal 09 is 2724 with a 1.72% increase [7]. Spreads - Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the spread of M01 - 05 is 314 with a 5 - point increase [9]. Import Costs and Profits - Import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are presented, for example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4667.1163 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.2014 yuan/ton [9].