Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is likely to be bullish, and the short - term situation is mainly controlled by bulls. London gold is expected to continue to rise, with support at 3340 and resistance at 3400 and 3450. London silver has support at 37.2 and resistance at 38 and 38.3. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market fluctuated strongly. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, down 0.08%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.19%. The main reason for the price increase is the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September due to poor US economic data and government pressure on the Fed. Fed's Kashkari said on Wednesday that a rate cut may come soon and still believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. b) This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. In terms of events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy online. On Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. c) Precious Metals Price and Spread - **Price**: SHFE gold main contract is 783.68 yuan/gram, up 0.15%; SGX gold TD is 779.2 yuan/gram, down 0.09%; CME gold main contract is 3431.8 dollars/ounce, down 0.09%. SHFE silver main contract is 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.18%; SGX silver TD is 9148 yuan/kilogram, up 1.06%; CME silver main contract is 37.935 dollars/ounce, up 0.26% [5]. - **Spread**: SHFE - TD gold is 4.48 yuan/gram, up 73.64%; SHFE - TD silver is 34 yuan/kilogram, down 42.5%; CME gold - silver ratio is 90.4653, down 0.36% [5]. d) Inventory and Position - **Gold**: SHFE gold inventory is 36045 kilograms, up 0.1%; CME gold inventory is 1203.0742 tons, down 0.31%; SHFE gold position is 215212 lots, down 1.57%; SPDR gold position is 952.79 tons, down 0.33% [12]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory is 1161.844 tons, up 0.39%; CME silver inventory is 15737.8769 tons, down 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1368.945 tons, up 0.04%; SHFE silver position is 373376 lots, up 1.59%; SLV silver position is 15112.276129 tons, up 0.45% [12]. e) Other Market Data - The US dollar index is 98.2263, down 0.54%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1848, down 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44193.12 points, up 0.18%; WTI crude oil spot is 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 1.24%; LmeS copper 03 is 9674 dollars/ton, up 0.41%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.22%, unchanged; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.88%, up 1.08%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.53%, up 6% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline, and fell slightly again on Wednesday, which is related to the poor US ISM non-manufacturing data. The spread between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized, and it is difficult to see the expectation that LME copper prices will remain higher than COMEX copper prices in the short term. The oversold situation in COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should still be wary of the adverse effects of weak copper demand [3]. Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; the US dollar index declined due to employment data; there is obvious support below [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the US adjustment of copper tariff policies has led to an extremely inflated COMEX inventory [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,280 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - 1 contract decreased by 300 yuan/ton (-0.38%), and the Shanghai copper continuous - 3 contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract is at 9,674 US dollars/ton, up 39.5 US dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 with no change [4]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,350 yuan/ton, 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,190 yuan/ton, and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums of these regions also decreased [6]. Copper Spread and Inventory Data Spread Data - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan (-20.82%); the reasonable refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan (-0.19%) [8]. Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,346 tons, up 1,579 tons (8.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 156,125 tons, up 2,275 tons (1.48%); the registered warehouse receipts are 145,200 tons, up 3,350 tons (2.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,925 tons, down 1,075 tons (-8.96%) [14]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 263,104 tons, up 7,156 tons (2.8%); the registered warehouse receipts are 123,343 tons, up 13,890 tons (9.89%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 139,761 tons, down 11,176 tons (-7.4%) [16]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan (-45.88%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar (-2.38%) [17].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 2. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] 3. Tin Price Volatility and Forecast - Latest closing price: 266,940 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.36% - Current volatility's historical percentile: 26.1% [2] 4. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy 1: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract, selling 75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell call options (SN2509C275000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy 1: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract, buying 50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell put options (SN2509P245000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 5. Factors Affecting Tin Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing - The semiconductor sector is still in the expansion cycle - Myanmar's resumption of production falls short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China - The semiconductor sector's expansion slows down and moves towards a contraction cycle [5][6] 6. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 267,280 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,230 | - 70 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0 | 0% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 500 | - 0.2% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,750 | - 500 | - 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 181,250 | - 500 | - 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,750 | - 500 | - 0.18% | [15] 7. Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 15,412.62 | - 1,335.69 | 9.49% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [19] 8. Tin Inventory Data Daily Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin | tons | 7,358 | 75 | 1.03% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Guangdong | tons | 4,905 | 57 | 1.18% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Shanghai | tons | 1,582 | 18 | 1.15% | | Total LME Tin Inventory | tons | 1,875 | - 25 | - 1.32% | [24]

1. Macroeconomy - **Core View**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in previous years, indicating downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be implemented. Overseas, the next few months will be a crucial observation period for inflation trends. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has been fluctuating, and changes in US inflation data deserve close attention [2] - **Market Information**: Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit; Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US; Trump has ordered an additional 25% tariff on India; the US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to increase tariffs by 15%; there are signs of a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky; Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut; the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction was unexpectedly weak [1][3][5][28] 2. RMB Exchange Rate - **Core Logic**: Based on the "dollar - mid - price - spot price" analysis framework, the market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and the dollar index is likely to consolidate. With the central bank's guidance and the trade surplus from January to June, the short - term exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a central anchor of 7.20 [4] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are reasonable; Trump will announce the appointment of a new Fed governor in 2 - 3 days; trade negotiations between Switzerland and the US have not made progress; Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and additional tariffs on India and other countries [3] 3. Stock Index - **Core View**: The stock market continued to rise yesterday, mainly driven by foreign capital inflows and active participation of hot money. The CSI 1000 index showed relative strength, while the Shanghai 50 index was weak. Short - term external tariff adjustments have increased risk - aversion sentiment, while foreign capital inflows have brought vitality. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face upward pressure [5] - **Market Information**: The margin balance has returned to the two - trillion - yuan mark; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to levy high tariffs on chips [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell cash - secured put options [5] 4. Treasury Bonds - **Core Logic**: Although the bond market's gains narrowed in the afternoon, there are signs of sentiment improvement, such as relative desensitization to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets and continuous net purchases by funds [7] - **Market Information**: South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists; the US plans to sell weapons to Ukraine [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Appropriate layout of long positions [7] 5. Container Shipping - **Core View**: Some mainstream shipping companies have continuously lowered the spot cabin quotes for European routes, which led to the lower opening of futures prices. Maersk's adjustment of shipping routes may increase port congestion and affect the effective capacity of European routes, which is beneficial for the long - term futures prices. However, the decline in spot quotes of some shipping companies has limited the upside of futures prices. In the future, the EC is expected to be in a volatile or slightly downward trend [9] - **Market Information**: The US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, causing Maersk to terminate direct shipping between the US and South Africa; Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs [8][9] 6. Commodities 6.1 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Core View**: Due to weak US economic data and government pressure on the Fed, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. In the medium - to - long - term, the trend is bullish, and in the short - term, the market is mainly controlled by bulls [10] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [10] 6.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper prices have shown a slight correction. The difference between LME copper and COMEX copper prices has stabilized. Short - term oversold conditions in COMEX copper may boost the valuation of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak demand [11][12] - **Market Information**: US ISM non - manufacturing data is poor [12] 6.3 Zinc - **Core View**: The continuous decline in overseas zinc inventories provides support for zinc prices. Although the domestic fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, the bottom of zinc prices is expected to be supported. In the short - term, zinc prices are likely to be volatile with a relatively strong trend [12][13] 6.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: The trend of nickel is volatile, and the overall logic has not changed significantly. The price of nickel ore has stabilized with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are differentiated. The supply of stainless steel is strong, and the demand is weak, but the spot price is relatively firm. The supply of nickel sulfate is tight [14][15] 6.5 Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices have shown some resilience. Supply - side issues have not been resolved quickly, and if the situation in Myanmar drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [17] 6.6 Carbonate Lithium - **Core View**: The futures price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated higher. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain has weakened slightly. Supply - side disturbances still exist, and the issue of mining certificates continues to ferment. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly upward state in the near term [18][19] 6.7 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Cost - side factors drive up prices, and sentiment continues to stimulate the market. In the short - term, the trend is bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside of industrial silicon is limited, and opportunities for buying on dips should be noted. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to industrial integration [20][22][23] 6.8 Lead - **Core View**: After two days of bottom - range oscillation, lead prices rose according to the peak - season expectation. The supply of primary lead is relatively strong, and the cost of recycled lead can support prices. The demand side is approaching the peak season, and the willingness to stock up for production has increased. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [24] 6.9 Black Metals 6.9.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: The inspection and reduction of coal mine over - production are ongoing, and there are also news of steel production reduction. Although it is the off - season, the demand shows the characteristic of being not weak in the off - season. The near - term contracts face delivery pressure, and the upper space is limited, but the lower space is supported [25][26] - **Market Information**: The government plans to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027; some coal mines have production reduction expectations [25] 6.9.2 Iron Ore - **Core View**: The rise of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The profit of steel mills has weakened significantly, and the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal is more prominent. The price of iron ore is expected to face upward pressure [27] - **Market Information**: Some coal mines have production reduction expectations, and the output and inventory of steel products have changed [27] 6.9.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The expectation of coking coal production reduction supports the strengthening of the market. The 5 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been repaired. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to macro events [28][29] - **Market Information**: Trump has imposed tariffs on related countries; the government plans to renovate rural roads; the production and inventory data of coking coal and coke have changed [28] 6.9.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: The cost support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has strengthened. The profits of steel mills are good, which provides support for the demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. However, in the long - term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the supply side is insufficient. In the short - term, the market still has some expectations for supply - side contraction [30][31][32] 6.10 Energy and Chemicals 6.10.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: The overnight crude - oil market冲高回落 and closed down. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include the decline in US crude - oil and refined - product inventories, Saudi Arabia's significant increase in official prices, and Trump's tariff measures. Bearish factors include the possible cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus increases, and the upward space is limited [33][35] - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of light oil in September; US EIA weekly data shows changes in inventory, production, and trade; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods [33][34] 6.10.2 LPG - **Core View**: The LPG market is in a low - level volatile state. The supply side is still relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The overall situation remains loose [36][37][38] 6.10.3 PTA - PX - **Core View**: The prices of PX - PTA have declined under the influence of commodity sentiment. The supply of PX is expected to increase in August, and the profit margin has been compressed. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The demand for polyester has declined, but there is a peak - season expectation. Currently, the PTA processing fee is at a historical low, and there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying on dips [39][40][41] 6.10.4 MEG - Bottle Grade - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the price of ethylene glycol has weakened. The supply side has increased, and the profit has been compressed. The inventory of the East China port has decreased slightly. In general, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [42] 6.10.5 Methanol - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to the fundamentals, which are currently weak. Factors such as the shutdown of Xingxing, the high - volume shipment from Iran in July, and poor downstream profits should be noted. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44] 6.10.6 PP - **Core View**: The PP market is in a short - term volatile state. The supply side is under pressure from new device production and the recovery of PDH profit. The demand side is still weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short - term. It is affected by macro sentiment and coking - coal prices [45][46] 6.10.7 PE - **Core View**: The PE market is currently affected by external factors and lacks a directional driver. The supply side has increased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory of LLDPE is at a high level. However, downstream orders are expected to recover in August, and the demand is expected to pick up [47][48] 6.10.8 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Core View**: Pure benzene: The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to be in a volatile state, and it is advisable to reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene by selling at high prices. Styrene: The supply is expected to increase in August and September, and the market is expected to be weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49][50] 6.10.9 Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The fuel - oil market is still weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has shown some recovery. The inventory is at a high level, and the short - term driving force is downward [52] 6.10.10 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil market has been dragged down by crude - oil prices. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It is advisable to have a bearish allocation [53] 6.10.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: The asphalt market is weakly volatile following the cost side. The supply has increased, and the demand has been suppressed by weather and capital shortages. In the short - term, the fundamentals have weakened, but in the long - term, the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [53][54] 6.10.12 Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand pattern is that supply is stronger than demand. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [55] - **Glass**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in a weak - balance state. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [56] - **Caustic Soda**: As it approaches August, the 09 contract may start the delivery logic. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is stable. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the peak - season performance [57] 6.10.13 Pulp - **Core View**: The pulp market has support on dips. The supply and inventory are at high levels, and the demand is difficult to see a significant long - term increase. However, the demand may be seasonally boosted in August. The market has adjusted with the decline in sentiment and is expected to be supported at the current level [58][59] 6.10.14 Logs - **Core View**: The "autumn fat contract" has opened. The price of the 09 contract revolves around the warehouse - receipt cost. Non - industrial customers are advised to trade in a range, and industrial customers can hedge to lock in profits [61] 6.10.15 Propylene - **Core View**: The propylene market is in a weakly volatile state. The cost side is affected by external factors, the supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The Shandong market has strengthened due to the reduction in the supply - demand gap [63][64] 6.11 Agricultural Products 6.11.1 Hogs - **Core View**: The price of hogs is weakly stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The market has the sentiment of withholding hogs from sale. It is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [66] 6.11.2 Oilseeds - **Core View**: The outer - market US soybeans have fallen due to concerns about new - crop exports and favorable planting weather. The inner - market has given back the sentiment - driven increase. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to face a gap after December. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean meal is limited, and the market is gradually pricing in the supply gap of the far - month contracts. For rapeseed meal, the near - month contracts are relatively strong, and the far - month contracts are expected to de - stock faster. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts on dips [67][68] 6.11.3 Oils - **Core View**: The vegetable - oil market is in a slightly upward volatile state recently, with soybean oil being relatively stronger within the sector. The supply pressure of palm oil has increased, the soybean - producing areas lack weather - driven factors, and the driving force for rapeseed oil is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and trade relations [69] 6.11.4 Corn and Starch - **Core View**: The corn market is in a weakly volatile state, and the trading is dull. The price of corn has declined slightly in the Northeast, and the demand is still weak. The price of corn starch is generally stable, and the demand from the syrup industry provides some support [70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel is mainly volatile, and the support of ferronickel should be noted. The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel have no obvious logical changes, with the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price rising slightly and downstream product differentiation. Stainless steel is expected to have strong supply and weak demand in August, and the macro - level needs to pay attention to the trend of the US dollar index [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai nickel price range forecast is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Stainless steel price range forecast is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, when product sales prices fall, short Shanghai nickel futures or sell call options; for procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, for inventory management, short stainless steel futures or sell call options; for procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. Market Situation Analysis - **Nickel Market**: The Indonesian nickel ore price has stabilized with a slight increase, and the supply side of ferronickel has a strong willingness to hold prices. The new energy link has some support, and the demand of some downstream precursor factories has increased [4]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: It fluctuates repeatedly, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. The spot side is relatively firm, and some specifications still have upward trends, but overall trading is average [4]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,070 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 87,840 lots (up 3.56% month - on - month), and a position of 86,052 lots (down 4.96% month - on - month) [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 82,019 lots (up 2.75% month - on - month), and a position of 84,046 lots (down 2.21% month - on - month) [7]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons (down 795 tons from the previous period), LME nickel inventory is 211,254 tons (up 2,172 tons from the previous period), stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and ferronickel inventory is 33,415 tons (up 182 tons from the previous period) [8]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, and ferronickel trading is warming up [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, de - stocking is slow, pure nickel inventory is high, nickel ore seasonal inventory rises, and Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current market is dominated by the issue of mining licenses, but both the lithium salt and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the process of destocking is slow. The pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two main market logics. One is that the disturbance of macro - sentiment and supply - side mining license issues drives the futures price to rebound, creating profit windows for lithium salt enterprises, increasing production enthusiasm, and potentially leading to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and pushing up the price of lithium salt. After the disturbance fades, the market will return to the fundamentals of demand - based pricing. The other is that in the downward price cycle, the over - capacity of lithium salt is causing pressure to clear up, which is transmitted upstream to the mining end, forming a negative feedback loop. Also, cost reduction due to technological upgrades is driving the price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages. In the third quarter, the futures price is expected to rise due to improved macro - sentiment, mining license disturbances, and the off - season not being weak. In the fourth quarter, with the completion of technological upgrades and concentrated production release, the futures price is expected to decline [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Interval Prediction**: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% (3 - year) [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 69,620 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan (2.62%) from the previous day and down 980 yuan (-1.39%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 425,359 lots, down 11,848 lots (-2.71%) from the previous day and down 367,550 lots (-46.35%) week - on - week. The open interest is 257,770 lots, up 25,708 lots (11.08%) from the previous day and down 14,983 lots (-5.49%) week - on - week [8]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: LC09 - 11 is - 360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (125%) from the previous day and down 380 yuan (-1900%) week - on - week; LC11 - 12 is - 260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (-28%) from the previous day and down 80 yuan (44%) week - on - week; LC11 - 01 is - 420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (5%) from the previous day and down 340 yuan (425%) week - on - week [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Daily Average Quotes**: The average prices of various lithium ores have declined. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.17%) from the previous day and down 85 yuan (-4.79%) week - on - week [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Daily Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,850 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.82%) week - on - week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.74%) week - on - week [18]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and week [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, with most showing no change in daily price [26]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 15,023 lots, an increase of 580 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as an increase of 300 lots in Xiamen Guomao (COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang) and a decrease of 1,000 lots in Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [29][30]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore for lithium carbonate production is presented, including that from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) [32]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate are also shown, with their trends over time [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the meeting last week, the market has a clearer understanding of the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The commodity market has cooled down, and ferroalloys have returned to their fundamentals. Current high steel mill profits and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, and the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The release of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" has supported ferroalloy prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly) is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. Silicon manganese price range (monthly) is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 3.3 Core Contradiction - After the meeting, the market clarifies the anti - involution policy. Policy focuses on partial capacity governance, not overall reduction. The commodity market cools down, and ferroalloys return to fundamentals. High steel mill profits and hot metal production support demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there are still expectations for supply - side contraction. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" support ferroalloy prices [4] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +85 yuan/ton (+6), and in Ningxia production area is 282 yuan/ton (+56) [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [5] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%. The weekly output is 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The demand for five major steel products is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory is 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%, and the total inventory is 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and silicon manganese demand is relatively weak. The profit in the northern region is - 168.65 yuan/ton (- 101.91), and in the southern region is - 511.42 yuan/ton (- 81.09). The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The weekly output is 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The warehouse receipt is 39.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%, and the total inventory is 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - Data such as silicon iron basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [7] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - Data such as silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [8] 3.8 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are presented, including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][11]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— MSK南非直航转为欧洲中转，欧线现舱报价仍偏下行 2025/8/6 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1500~1600 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | | 情况进行订舱 | | | 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格低开后震荡上行，临近收盘时有明显回落。截至收盘，除 EC2508合约略有回落，其余各月合约价格均有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in Q3 is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400 yuan, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500 yuan, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 yuan [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4280 - 4330 yuan to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 yuan to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2] Polyester Raw Material Production Facilities - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production facilities. For MEG, facilities in Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, etc. had different production capacities, operating states, and production time. For PX, facilities in Yangzi Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, etc. were included. For PTA, facilities in Yizheng Chemical Fibre, Luoyang Petrochemical, etc. were listed [7] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Many polyester - related products showed price and spread changes on August 6, 2025, compared with previous days. For example, Brent crude oil was at 67.7 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.0 and a weekly change of - 4.8 dollars/barrel. TA01 contract was at 4754 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 32 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 100 yuan/ton. TA1 - 5 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 4 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 20 yuan/ton [8] Inventory and Processing Fees - On August 6, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 27131, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 2607. Many processing fees also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread was 37 dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 5 dollars/ton. POY profit was 111 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 45 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 110 yuan/ton [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the asphalt supply increases due to the resumption of some refineries in Shandong, while the demand is suppressed by typhoon weather in South and East China, rainfall in North China, and the persistent shortage of funds. The overall fundamentals are weakening, and the absolute price fluctuates due to the cost of crude oil. The monthly spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, as autumn approaches, the construction conditions in the north and south will improve, and the construction will enter the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 will speed up, and the funds will be alleviated. The peak season is still worth looking forward to [2]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in August 2025 is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short 25% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton according to their inventory [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy 50% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Market Data | Region | 2025 - 08 - 06 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 05 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 04 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 07 - 30 Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (yuan/ton) | Weekly Change (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Spot | 3750 | 3770 | 3785 | 3785 | - 20 | - 35 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 0 | 0 | | North China Spot | 3660 | 3680 | 3700 | 3720 | - 20 | - 60 | | South China Spot | 3580 | 3580 | 3590 | 3580 | 0 | 0 | | Shandong Spot 09 Basis | 195 | 226 | 212 | 135 | - 31 | 60 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot 09 Basis | 225 | 236 | 207 | 130 | - 11 | 95 | | North China Spot 09 Basis | 105 | 136 | 127 | 70 | - 31 | 35 | | South China Spot 09 Basis | 25 | 36 | 17 | - 70 | - 11 | 95 | | Shandong Spot to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 163.4285 | 166.8943 | 162.4854 | 131.7688 | - 3.4658 | 31.6597 | | Futures Main to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 125.1318 | 127.7311 | 125.7482 | 108.3749 | - 2.5993 | 16.7569 | [5][8] 3.4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, and manufacturers have a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south; the atmosphere of "anti - involution" sets off a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][7]. - **Negative Factors**: The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased recently; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7].