Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The ferroalloy market is currently facing the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with silicon-manganese enterprise inventories at a five-year high and a 11.8% week-on-week increase, indicating significant inventory pressure [2]. - Cost support is challenged as the pattern of high supply and weak demand persists, although rising coking coal prices provide short-term support [2]. - There is a contradiction between the anti-involution expectation and weak reality, with a high risk of price surges followed by declines due to the lack of substantial action [2]. - Despite support from coking coal prices, the ferroalloy's fundamentals cannot support significant upward movement, and its upside potential is limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting ferroalloy trends include the high inventory and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti-involution expectations and weak reality [2]. - Downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and steel mills' profitability has declined, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market [2][3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Technically, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound, but there is pressure for further upward movement without an improvement in fundamentals [12]. - **Price Range**: The price range for the silicon-iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and for the silicon-manganese main contract, it is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: With weak downstream demand, the basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy [12]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Although the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five-year low, it is not recommended to buy at the bottom immediately, and there is a risk of further weakening [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for silicon-iron is 5300 - 6000, and for silicon-manganese, it is 5300 - 6000 [13]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Enterprises with high product inventories are advised to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits, while those with low procurement inventories can buy futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino-US economic and trade consultations have eased market concerns, and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased [14]. - **Negative Information**: Steel demand has been weak during the peak season, steel mills' profitability has declined, and the real estate market has continued to slump [15][16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 25th will be announced next Thursday [18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the US core PCE price index annual rate for September will be released next Friday [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The closing price of the silicon-iron main contract 2601 increased by 2.06% week-on-week, and its total open interest decreased by 12.6%. The silicon-manganese main contract 01 closed up 0.94% week-on-week, with its total open interest down 9.1% [18]. - The net short position in silicon-iron is gradually increasing, while the net short position in silicon-manganese is gradually decreasing [18]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of some silicon-iron contracts is improving to a backwardation structure [23]. - The basis of ferroalloys has been fluctuating within a narrow range, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12][23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Ferroalloy profits have been declining continuously, with strong incentives for silicon-iron enterprises to cut production, while silicon-manganese production has been falling for multiple weeks [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of silicon-iron has improved, and its export volume is expected to increase [66]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet Projection - On the supply side, production is expected to decline due to falling production profits and the arrival of the flat-water season, which may reduce output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas [68]. - On the demand side, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline slightly due to the decline in downstream steel profits and the accumulation of steel inventories [68]. - Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [68]. 5.2 Supply Side and Projection - Ferroalloy production is not expected to increase due to falling production profits, and the output of silicon-manganese in the southern regions may decline with the arrival of the flat-water season [70]. - Silicon-iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profits [70]. 5.3 Demand Side and Projection - Although the demand for ferroalloys is expected to increase seasonally during the peak season, the decline in downstream steel profits and the accumulation of steel inventories have suppressed the demand for ferroalloys [73][74]. - The high level of hot metal production is difficult to maintain due to the decline in steel mills' profitability, which may lead to a decrease in the demand for ferroalloys in steelmaking [74]. 5.4 Inventory Side and Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, but warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polyethylene (PE) shows a range - bound pattern, mainly driven by macro sentiment and cost factors, with limited fundamental drivers. In the long - term, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [10][11]. - Recently, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading due to numerous macro uncertainties and limited supply - demand drivers of polyolefins [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost side: The dual pull of crude oil and coking coal has led to a rebound in the chemical sector. Crude oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical issues, and coking coal has shown a strong upward trend due to supply - side factors [1]. - Supply - demand side: The PE supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand is generally weak in the second half of this year, and the demand growth drive will be more limited in the fourth quarter. PE is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited fundamental drivers [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: Polyolefin prices rebounded this week driven by crude oil and coking coal. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, and pay attention to macro and cost trends [10]. - Long - term trading expectation: In the long run, the supply of PE is expected to increase further in the fourth quarter, while there is no obvious demand growth driver, so the weak pattern is expected to continue [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of polyethylene is predicted to be 6800 - 7200 [17]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting plastic futures, selling call options, buying plastic futures, and selling put options [17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: The 3 - line HDPE unit of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical is expected to start two weeks ahead of schedule [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - From Tuesday this week, the plastic futures market showed a bottom - rebound trend, with strong downstream bottom - fishing willingness and a rapid increase in trading volume [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: Driven by the cost side, PE started to rebound from Wednesday [26]. - Capital trend: This week, the open interest changed little, and the market still had a strong bearish sentiment [26]. - Basis structure: The basis of North China and South China weakened slightly, while that of East China strengthened [28]. - Spread structure: The near - term spread structure changed little, and the L1 - 5 spread showed a contango structure [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the context of weak PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also on the verge of loss [33]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. The supply pressure will continue to increase, and the demand growth is limited, so the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.46% (- 0.3%), with little change. The supply pressure will continue to increase due to the return of maintenance units and new capacity put into production [43]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The import of PE is expected to increase from the end of October to November due to the weak overseas supply - demand pattern [47]. - Export: Although the export of PE has increased, the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [47]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (+ 0.83%). The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the demand growth of other downstream industries is limited [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [1][40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to maintain their current interest rates, while the decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are uncertain [1][40]. - The China-US trade issue remains a key focus. Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [1][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. One - Week Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of October 24th, 16:30, the US dollar index appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The offshore yuan, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound depreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore yuan appreciated slightly against the US dollar [3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and the policy showed characteristics of inheritance and innovation [3]. - The achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][13]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is highly consistent with the "14th Five - Year Plan" in core goals and adds three innovative directions in implementation paths [8][14]. - The four core views of the "15th Five - Year Plan" are stable growth, enhanced security, innovation promotion, and domestic demand expansion [9][15]. - In general, the "15th Five - Year Plan" pays more attention to systematicness, integrity, and synergy, with a policy logic shift from "development priority" to "balanced development and security," from "factor - driven" to "innovation - driven," and from "external demand - driven" to "domestic demand - driven" [10][16]. - Key word analysis shows that in the "15th Five - Year Plan," "high - quality development" is deepened from concept to practice, "scientific and technological self - reliance" is elevated in strategic status, "security" is emphasized as a "security barrier," "consumption" and "investment" strengthen the domestic demand - driven strategy, and "finance" shifts from system construction to embedded support [17][21][22][23][24]. 1.2 Weekly Review of the US Dollar Against the Chinese Yuan Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan remained stable, with a fluctuation range of 7.115 - 7.129. The appreciation - oriented central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and stable domestic macro - economic data jointly promoted the stable operation of the exchange rate [36]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was mostly in sync with the US dollar index. The US dollar index rebounded in the first half of last week due to the US government shutdown and the expected fiscal expansion policy in Japan [36][37]. 1.3 Market Outlook - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts are uncertain [40]. - Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [40]. 2. Observation of the Chinese Yuan Market 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0928, depreciating 21 basis points from the previous Friday. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of yuan depreciation expectation) [42]. 2.2 Investor Expectation and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectation**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with cross - border capital flows active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand relatively balanced. Although there was a small net outflow of cross - border funds in September, it turned into an inflow in October [49]. - **Overseas Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the spread between the offshore and on - shore yuan showed that overseas investors' sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation had declined [53]. - **Professional Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the closing price of the 1 - year NDF of the US dollar against the offshore yuan declined slightly. The short - term market sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the medium - term appreciation sentiment increased [55]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided [60][61]. - **Singapore Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided, as well as a comparison of the basis with the Hong Kong Exchange [63][64][66]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Various economic data such as GDP, industrial added value, and consumer price index were released. The "15th Five - Year Plan" goals were put forward, and policies in multiple fields such as agriculture, foreign exchange, and real estate were announced [69][70]. - **US**: Economic data such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index were released. There were also events such as the termination of trade negotiations with Canada and the impact of the government shutdown on inflation data [71][72]. - **UK**: The Bank of England started stress - testing the private credit market, and inflation data was released, leading traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts [73]. - **Eurozone**: Data showed that the net financial situation of EU member states deteriorated, and the PMI data of the eurozone improved [74]. - **Japan**: A new prime minister was elected, and economic measures and inflation data were announced [75]. - **Others**: South Korea issued foreign exchange stabilization bonds, and the global payment share of the yuan increased [76]. 3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Speeches Summary - Speeches from central banks in China, the United States, Japan, etc., were involved, including topics such as APEC meetings, interest rate policies, and exchange rate expectations [77][78][79]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A list of important data and events to be announced this week in different regions, including China, the United States, Canada, Japan, etc., is provided, along with their importance, previous values, and expected values [81]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Graphs showing the trends of exchange rates of major countries such as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Korean won, etc., are presented [83][85][86]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Graphs showing the trends of major asset classes such as London gold, VIX, Brent crude oil, etc., are presented [104][105][106]. 4.3 Funding Situation - Graphs showing central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are presented [114][116]. 4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Graphs showing the trends of the China - US interest rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield are presented [118][119]. 4.5 Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Index - A graph showing the trends of three major Chinese yuan exchange rate indexes is presented [122]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Graphs showing the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures are presented [124][126].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range. After the environmental protection traffic restriction news on Thursday, prices rapidly rose to a six - month high and then maintained high - level oscillations. The confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. Due to the environmental protection traffic restriction in Hebei, lead supply is short - term tight. Since May, recycled lead has been troubled by raw materials, with low operating rates. Low lead prices have compressed smelting profits, and the supply side's weakness has been long - standing. Although the price increase has restored some smelting profits, supply recovery is expected to take about a month, and low inventories support high - level lead price oscillations in the short term [2]. - In the near - term, some of October's domestic demand has been consumed by September's policies and pre - holiday stockpiling. After the environmental protection traffic restriction, lead is in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, the Fed's possible consecutive interest rate cuts are beneficial to lead prices, but overseas macro - factors have a relatively weak driving force on lead prices compared to other non - ferrous metals. Domestically, the macro - impact on lead prices mainly comes from consumption and supply structure adjustments, and an optimistic attitude is maintained due to supply - side structural adjustments and lithium - battery export restrictions [2][6][8]. Summary by Section Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range, then rose sharply on Thursday due to environmental protection traffic restriction news and maintained high - level oscillations. Macro - factors such as the confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's signals on China - US relations, and China's "anti - involution" emphasis affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the environmental protection traffic restriction in Hebei led to short - term tight supply. Recycled lead has had low operating rates due to raw material shortages since May, and low lead prices have compressed smelting profits. Although the price increase restored some profits, supply recovery will take time, and low inventories support high - level price oscillations [2]. - Near - term trading logic: Some of October's domestic demand has been consumed, and after the environmental protection traffic restriction, lead is in a tight - balance state. Long - term trading expectations: The Fed's possible interest rate cuts are beneficial to lead prices, but overseas macro - factors have weak driving force. Domestically, an optimistic attitude is maintained due to supply - side and export - related factors [6][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The Shanghai lead main contract is in a high - level oscillation. The pressure level is around 17,850 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 17,000 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest are neutral [9]. - **Short - Term Futures Strategy**: High - sell and low - buy within the range. Lightly go long around 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,000 yuan/ton; go short around 17,700 - 17,850 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 19,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Short - Term Options Strategy**: Sell wide - straddle options to collect premiums for stable returns [9]. - **Basis Strategy**: Lead basis fluctuates little, so no basis strategy is recommended [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Calendar spreads are stable, so no calendar spread strategy is recommended [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: The lead - zinc spread is stable. Wait for the export window to open to try long - short arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets [13]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventories and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main futures contract at around 17,400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventories and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main futures contract at around 16,500 yuan/ton [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Different industries and quarters had different growth rates, and the third - quarter GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter increase [15]. - **Environmental Protection Traffic Restriction**: Hebei restricted vehicle entry, affecting the transportation of recycled lead and lead battery enterprises, lengthening the transportation cycle [15]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: SMM 1 lead's daily, weekly, and monthly average prices, domestic and imported lead concentrate prices, and recycled lead average prices all increased to varying degrees [16][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China - US trade consultations [15] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range with strong bottom support, closing at 17,575 yuan/ton. Profitable positions and foreign capital are mainly long - biased, indicating a long - term bullish logic among institutions [19]. - **LME Market**: LME lead was weak this week, closing at $2,012/ton on Friday. Investment companies and credit institutions hold the majority of positions. The LME lead calendar spread structure is stable, showing a deep C - structure, and the import window has opened [18][24][42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the decline of silver - containing lead concentrate processing fees was obvious [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Information on the relationship between lead concentrate import profits and imports, and the seasonality of various lead - related product imports and exports is provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [50]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Information on the seasonality of domestic lead ingot supply and actual consumption is provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [57]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The global lead ore market is tight this year. Although smelting willingness for primary lead is high, raw material shortages may limit production [58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - This week, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises increased slightly due to post - holiday rework [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: The polyolefin market rebounds driven by crude oil and coking coal, with its trend mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and cost fluctuations. Given many macro - level disturbances and limited supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading recently [7]. - **Long - term**: Despite continuous pressure on the PP supply side due to intensive production, new PP device production is relatively limited in Q1 2026, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. With an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up trend in the long run [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Cost side**: Crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical issues such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend because of supply - side factors like production cuts in some regions and reduced Mongolian coal customs clearance [1]. - **Supply - demand side**: In supply, unexpected PP device shutdowns increase recently, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but the large - scale PP production capacity makes it hard to fundamentally relieve the pressure. In demand, traditional PP downstream shows little change, but downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after continuous price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Near - term strategy review**: A unilateral strategy of buying at low prices was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range of polypropylene is 6500 - 7000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.43% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7% [13]. - **Hedging strategy**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short PP futures and sell call options. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy PP futures [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Crude oil rises rapidly due to geopolitical issues; PP production lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Zhongjing Petrochemical stop [19]. - **Negative information**: The 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical will start next week; Daxie Petrochemical's old production lines will stop [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session and the results of Sino - US trade policy negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: Since Wednesday, the PP disk rebounds driven by crude oil. This week, the position volume slightly declines, the top five short positions increase significantly, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats slightly increases [22]. - **Basis structure**: The PP disk rises rapidly following crude oil, while the spot price lags, causing the basis to weaken. As of Friday, the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton, the East China basis is - 62 yuan/ton, and the South China basis is - 72 yuan/ton [25]. - **Spread structure**: The spread structure changes little, and the PP 1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to an optimistic macro - expectation [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - PDH devices maintain positive profits, with expected reduced unexpected shutdowns and increased operating rates. The profit of externally purchased propylene recovers, and the situation of suspending PP device sales of propylene is expected to decrease, increasing supply - side pressure and weakening cost support [32]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The follow - up supply - demand pressure is not significant. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in Q4 on the supply side, a high demand growth rate on the demand side (current apparent demand year - on - year growth rate is 11%), and limited PP import volume increase on the import - export side [41]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 75.94% (- 2.28%). Many devices stop unexpectedly this week, resulting in a short - term supply reduction [47]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Side and Deduction - **Import**: Due to weak overseas prices, some low - cost PP sources may enter China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season limit PP exports, but some enterprises increase sales by reducing prices, leading to a surge in export orders this week [52]. 3.5.4 Demand Side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.376% (+ 0.52%). Although traditional PP downstream changes little, downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [59].

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The 10 - month interest rate cut is certain. Trump's optimistic signals about China - US relations and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. The supply side is under pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and maintenance of some domestic smelters, while the demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is weak, and the growth in emerging fields is uncertain. Overall, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Considering the macro - upward drive and the large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - term investment. In the short term, it is advisable to enter the market on dips [2]. Summaries by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices had a narrow - range oscillation this week. Macroeconomic factors included a confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution". Fundamentally, there were continuous disturbances at the mine end, some domestic smelters were under maintenance, TC continued to decline, and the supply - side pressure was obvious. Demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the growth in emerging fields was uncertain, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation [2]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 288,000 yuan and sell 25% of the call options SN2511C290000 when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 277,000 yuan and sell 25% of the put options SN2511P270000 when the volatility is appropriate. The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 284,300 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan, the current volatility is 18.59%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 45.8% [20][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, up 3.8%; the secondary industry was 3.6402 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; the tertiary industry was 5.92955 trillion yuan, up 5.4%. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 281,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.32%); 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.27%); 63A solder bar is 190,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.26%); lead - free solder is 288,250 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan (0.35%) [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate data will be released [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Tin Futures Disk Data**: The latest price of the main Shanghai tin contract is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,550 yuan (1.26%); Shanghai tin continuous - one is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan (1.11%); Shanghai tin continuous - three is 284,450 yuan/ton, up 3,100 yuan (1.1%); LME tin 3M is 35,650 US dollars/ton, up 678 US dollars (1.94%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, down 0.03 (- 0.38%). - **Tin Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,567 tons, down 85 tons (- 1.5%); Shanghai tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons (- 3.2%); LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,495 tons, down 10 tons (- 0.4%); LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 255 tons, up 25 tons (10.87%); LME tin inventory is 2,720 tons, up 145 tons (5.63%); social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 110 tons (- 1.13%) [24][25][26]. **Internal Market Analysis** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, tin prices oscillated within a narrow range, closing at 280,700 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable seats are mainly long in net positions. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic term structure changed to a B - structure, affected by the expected increase in future supply [27][29]. **Internal - External Price Difference Tracking** - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with a narrow - range oscillation [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have long been hovering at historical lows, which has put pressure on smelters' profits and suppressed their production willingness [37]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - There are data on the seasonal import volume of Chinese tin ore and concentrates and unforged non - alloy tin, but no specific profit - related analysis is provided in the part of the summary. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply side is under great pressure due to mine - end disturbances and smelters' losses [44]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are data on the seasonal monthly production of domestic refined tin, recycled refined tin, and the seasonal monthly apparent consumption of Chinese tin ingots, but no specific demand - side deduction analysis is provided in the part of the summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current non - aluminum spot market has no obvious replenishment behavior, falling short of expectations, and may wait for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. As maintenance resumes, spot support may weaken. The rising price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [2]. - High profits limit the price ceiling. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continued production capacity pressure. The implementation degree and time of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased replenishment rhythm [4]. - The pattern of high profits and high production restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall, the contradictions are limited, but the near - term demand and replenishment rhythm are below expectations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of [2300, 2600] [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The overall spot market is weak, non - aluminum replenishment is below expectations, the chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent rise in liquid chlorine weakens cost support [3]. - Long - term trading expectations: High profits limit price increases, there is continued production capacity pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and the implementation of downstream alumina production capacity may affect the phased replenishment rhythm [4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly. Range trading within [2300, 2600] is recommended [7]. - Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: Current short - only positions are advised to exit or wait for signs of the spot price bottoming out [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, shorting caustic soda futures to lock in profits and selling call options to collect premiums are recommended. The recommended hedging ratio is 50%, and the entry range is 2600 - 2650 [11]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase according to orders, buying caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and selling put options to collect premiums are recommended. The recommended hedging ratio is 50%, and the entry range is 2300 - 2350 [11]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Price data shows that on October 24, 2025, the prices of different types and regions of caustic soda had various changes, such as a - 2.9% drop in Shandong flake caustic soda price compared to the previous day [13]. - The price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current volatility of 25.50% and a historical percentile of 65.5% over three years [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Maintenance continued in October, providing short - term support for the spot market. The price - holding strength of alkali plants needs to be observed [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - There is no information about next week's important events in the provided content. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week. The absolute price has reached a relatively low level this year, mainly due to weak market sentiment and reality, and the non - aluminum downstream's phased replenishment was below expectations [17]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The non - aluminum end has not shown concentrated replenishment. The continuous rise in liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Attention should be paid to the continued upward movement of liquid chlorine, the replenishment signs of the non - aluminum end in the middle and downstream, and the continuation of inventory accumulation [19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, leading to a month - on - month increase in chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton (+200 yuan), and in Jiangsu is 100 yuan/ton (+50 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 600 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [30]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 5 US dollars to around 455 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [40]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - The report provides seasonal price data for different types (32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda) and regions of caustic soda, as well as price difference data between different brands and regions [43][51][54]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - Caustic soda loss volume: Data on weekly and monthly device loss volume is provided [100]. - Liquid caustic soda production and operation: Data on weekly and monthly total production, operation rate, and regional production are provided [102]. - Flake caustic soda production and operation: Data on weekly total production, operation rate, and regional production are provided [111]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - The report provides data on the spot price, operation rate, and import and export volume of downstream products such as alumina, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [118]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Data on the weekly factory inventory of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in different regions are provided [132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions are frequent, and the far - month supply of live pigs may be affected. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but the short - to - medium term is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form. Currently, the fundamental situation is one of oversupply, but with the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting peak - season prices [2]. - The decline momentum of the market is slowing, and there is a possibility of a staged rebound. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Policy end: The government has launched a pig reserve purchase policy at a pig - grain ratio of 6:1, indicating the determination for price control, and the policy bottom has emerged [2]. - Fundamental situation: Currently, supply exceeds demand. Due to policy expectations, epidemics in some provinces, and transportation issues, there was concentrated slaughter during the double festivals, leading to a rapid decline in short - term pig prices [2]. - Near - term trading logic: High pig inventory, heavy slaughter pressure on pig enterprises, concentrated slaughter by second - fattening farms during the peak season, and the entry of speculative second - fattening due to low pig prices [5]. - Long - term trading logic: Policy - led expectations of reducing the number of reproductive sows, weakening breeding profits, and the peak - season sales expectation from the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival [8]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The decline momentum is slowing, and there may be a staged rebound [10]. - Price range: The low point of the main contract last week may be a staged low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: Unwind previous short positions, wait and see, or lightly bet on the peak - season rebound. The basis is expected to strengthen during the peak season, and consider staging calendar spread positive spreads [11][15]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - Inventory management: For high - inventory enterprises, short live - pig futures, sell call options, or buy out - of - the - money put options to manage risks [12]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with future procurement plans, buy live - pig forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options to manage risks [12]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: Increased willingness of second - fattening to enter the market; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that pig and pork prices may stop falling and rebound in the second half of the fourth quarter; the pig price in mid - October may be the annual low; a hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pig by - products will be held [14][16]. - Negative information: Continuous decline in the slaughter quotes of large enterprises; significant year - on - year increase in the number of live - pig slaughter by listed companies in September [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the slaughter quotes of large enterprises [16]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation This week, the main live - pig contract showed a staged stabilization trend. It opened at 11800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 12175 yuan/ton at the weekend, rising 375 points or 4.33%. The open interest increased by 5425 contracts to 112,000 contracts, indicating intensified long - short competition [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - Calendar spread structure: The overall live - pig calendar spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 3 month spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern. The near - end price is under pressure due to epidemics and transportation difficulties [18]. - Basis structure: Reduced live - pig slaughter, stable and rebounding spot prices, and a possible structural shortage of large pigs drive the basis to strengthen [22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current live - pig breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising this week. The profit of selling piglets has also turned negative. The profit of second - fattening is attractive due to the high seasonal spread between standard and fat pigs. The slaughter profit is improving, and the terminal consumption may pick up during the peak season [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Reproductive sows: In August, the number of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 40,000 from July. The data from Steel Union shows a downward trend, and the culling of sows has increased [29]. - Live pigs: The inventory of large - scale enterprises in the first half of the year was at a high level in the past three years, and the average slaughter weight remained stable this week [31]. - Piglets: Piglet prices are relatively low compared to last year, showing a seasonal decline, and the profit margin continues to decline [33]. - Second - fattening: The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened rapidly this week, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased significantly [35]. - Feed: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, while soybean meal prices remain stable [37]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Situation - Slaughter: Slaughter enterprises had high slaughter volumes in the first half of the year. Current slaughter profits have turned positive, cold - storage inventory is gradually increasing, and there are signs of inventory preparation. This week, slaughter profits slightly declined, and the average post - slaughter weight slowly increased [42]. - Terminal consumption: Terminal consumption remains weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of slaughter enterprises is at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally, and the spread between white - haired and fresh - meat prices is the worst in the same period [44]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Situation - Import: The import volume is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [46]. - Export: The export volume is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [51]. 3.5.4 Cost - Profit Situation - Breeding profit: The breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising [25]. - Cost: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, and soybean meal prices are stable. The cost of second - fattening is also presented in the report [37][55].

——锂矿库存偏紧，上方空间略有想象 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场运行态势震荡走强，符合之前预期。展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的核心驱动逻辑将聚 焦于这些方面："国内锂矿紧张程度"、"十一月份枧下窝复产情况"和"下游11月份排产节奏"，上述因 素将主导后续市场情绪。 南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 锂矿端，若国内可流通的锂精矿库存持续维持低位，那么市场原料端的紧张格局将有进一步加深的可能性， 并通过产业链传导逐步推升碳酸锂价格；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝 复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求 端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸 锂的需求韧性；若下游11月排产延续高景气度，锂盐需求将维持强势格局，进而反向加剧锂矿的供需错配情 况。此外，从 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current dominant logic of polysilicon futures price trends focuses on whether the photovoltaic storage platform can be established in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and whether photovoltaic policies can be effectively and timely introduced [1] - The short - term trading mainline of the current market revolves around "whether the storage platform will be established in November", and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". It is necessary to be vigilant against the disturbance of various false information to market sentiment during the policy or node vacuum period [2] - The polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand", showing a generally bearish pattern [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting polysilicon futures prices are the potential establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor suggests that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November, and as November approaches, the PS2511 contract may face significant closing pressure if long - positions lack the willingness to take over [1] - The current market shows characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of upstream polysilicon in the photovoltaic industry remains stable but there is no obvious inventory reduction. On the demand side, although the winning bid scale of components has increased week - on - week, the winning bid price has decreased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policies to be introduced by the state in the fourth quarter and whether the grid - connected electricity price of terminal photovoltaics can rise [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Positioning of the market**: Observe the basis strategy; under the premise of low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [8] - **Review of recent strategies**: Futures, arbitrage, and option trading positions proposed on October 18, 2025, have all been closed [8] 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - **Price prediction of polysilicon futures**: The support level is 47,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 83.6% [9] - **Risk management strategies**: Different hedging strategies and entry ratios are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management [9][11] - **Trend judgment and strategy suggestions**: The trend is expected to be wide - range oscillation. The oscillation range is 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, the low - level range is 47,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, and the high - level range is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range; the monthly spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage on PS2601 - PS2605 [10] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "14th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industrial clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - From October 27 - 30, the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held; on October 31, China's official manufacturing PMI for October will be released [18] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Market review and technical analysis**: The weighted index contract of polysilicon closed at 52,045 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,188 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%, and the open interest was 231,619 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,326 lots. The price of polysilicon has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth is narrowing. The MACD and open interest changes show that the market presents the characteristic of "long - position reduction and price decline", and the market may weaken further [16] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility has shown an upward trend, indicating an increase in the historical fluctuation range of polysilicon futures prices. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has weakened, suggesting that the market's expectation of future price fluctuations of polysilicon is decreasing. The PCR of option open interest has weakened, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment is gradually weakening [20] - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale shows signs of reduction [22] - **Monthly spread structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the contracts have followed the reverse arbitrage logic in the past week, with little change in forward prices [24] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main contract has weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices, and the futures price is in the normal range from a historical statistical perspective [28] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, with most showing little change in daily and weekly comparisons [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After hitting a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously restored with the synchronous increase in polysilicon futures and spot prices. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached a maximum of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [32] - From the perspective of the futures end, under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the current gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.66%, and the profit has declined this week mainly due to the rise in industrial silicon futures prices and the fall in polysilicon futures prices [32] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: The SMM - weekly output is 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84%; the Baichuan - weekly output is 31,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.46%. The Baichuan - weekly operating rate is 49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [35] - **Inventory**: The total weekly inventory of polysilicon is 508,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts has all increased to varying degrees [42] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly output of silicon wafers is 14.73 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%, and the weekly inventory is 18.47 GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.70% [45] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of battery cells is 7.1 GW, a week - on - week increase of 7.09%, but a month - on - month decrease of 12.45% [57] 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components is 33.5 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.90% [68] 5.5 Bidding - The winning bid capacity of photovoltaic components is 383.53 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 68.70% and a month - on - month decrease of 88.31%. The average winning bid price is 0.72 yuan/watt, with no change [70] 5.6 Installation and Application - The chart shows the seasonal data of China's monthly new photovoltaic installation capacity, but no specific data is provided in the text [73]