Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Commodity Index Daily Report [2] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Author: Nanhua Index Group, including Cao Yanghui, Zhao Bo, and Wang Yilin [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.81% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose by 0.02%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The sector with the largest decline was the Nanhua Black Index, down -1.56%, and the sector with the smallest decline was the Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index, down -0.63%. All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04%. Among the single-variety indices of commodity futures, the caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][3][4]. Index Performance Summary Composite and Sector Indices - Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI): Closed at 2534.95, down -0.81% from the previous close of 2555.72, with an annualized return of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 13.73% [3]. - Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI): Closed at 1261.11, up 0.02% from 1260.91, with an annualized return of 29.51% and an annualized volatility of 16.60% [3]. - Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII): Closed at 3650.38, down -0.89% from 3683.10, with an annualized return of -6.10% and an annualized volatility of 16.15% [3]. - Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI): Closed at 6464.57, down -1.02% from 6531.47, with an annualized return of 1.60% and an annualized volatility of 14.94% [3]. - Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI): Closed at 1681.16, down -0.70% from 1693.04, with an annualized return of -12.75% and an annualized volatility of 18.40% [3]. - Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF): Closed at 1713.87, down -0.63% from 1724.76, with an annualized return of 5.63% and an annualized volatility of 13.41% [3]. - Nanhua Black Index (NHFI): Closed at 2582.71, down -1.56% from 2623.70, with an annualized return of -8.58% and an annualized volatility of 21.92% [3]. - Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI): Closed at 1113.19, down -0.86% from 1122.89, with an annualized return of 5.55% and an annualized volatility of 9.53% [3]. - Nanhua Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi): Closed at 1191.43, down -0.91% from 1202.38, with an annualized return of 3.23% and an annualized volatility of 14.63% [3]. - Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI): Closed at 1058.07, down -1.05% from 1069.32, with an annualized return of 2.54% and an annualized volatility of 29.87% [3]. - Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI): Closed at 945.19, down -0.85% from 953.29, with an annualized return of 0.75% and an annualized volatility of 15.28% [3]. - Nanhua Coal Chemical Index (NHCCI): Closed at 1036.33, down -1.00% from 1046.83, with an annualized return of 1.17% and an annualized volatility of 17.17% [3]. - Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM): Closed at 1067.01, down -1.99% from 1088.67, with an annualized return of 7.32% and an annualized volatility of 23.31% [3]. - Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI): Closed at 763.35, down -0.72% from 768.87, with an annualized return of 3.25% and an annualized volatility of 23.12% [3]. - Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI): Closed at 1287.05, down -1.18% from 1302.40, with an annualized return of 3.74% and an annualized volatility of 10.27% [3]. - Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI): Closed at 910.15, down -0.04% from 910.49, with an annualized return of 1.89% and an annualized volatility of 5.65% [3]. Theme Indices - All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04% [4] Single-Variety Indices - The caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][4] Contribution to Index Movements - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.15%), while negative contributors included zinc (-1.52%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.44%), while negative contributors included zinc (-32.55%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.69%), while negative contributors included iron ore (-1.68%), crude oil (-1.61%), and zinc (-1.67%) [8] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive contributors included caustic soda (2.54%), while negative contributors included tin (-6.52%), aluminum (-3.51%), and zinc (-3.51%) [8] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.47%), while negative contributors included crude oil (-16.62%), iron ore (-19.37%), and PVC (-9.11%) [8] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors included cotton (1.45%), while negative contributors included rapeseed meal (-17.58%), palm oil (-22.79%), and soybean meal (-14.26%) [8] Other Information - The calculation of price changes is (today's closing price - yesterday's closing price) / yesterday's closing price, and the contribution is the product of price change and weight [11] - The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the price difference when changing commodity contracts, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [11] - The contribution calculation method used is: a variety's daily price change / ∑|all varieties' daily price changes|, with yellow data bars indicating a daily increase and blue data bars indicating a daily decrease [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Yesterday, it was suggested that there might be significant resistance near the upper pressure line of the stock market. Today, the stock market rose on strong trading volume but retreated in the late session, which was in line with expectations. At the industry level, affected by the information of Ping An Insurance Group's stake - increase, the financial sector showed a relatively strong trend. The banking sector was also supported to some extent by the transfer of profit - taking funds to high - dividend industries and showed resilience. In the futures index market, small - cap futures indexes pulled back significantly, while large - cap indexes were more resilient. After a failed attempt to break through and with most of the week's key data released, it is expected that market investment will turn cautious. There is only a small probability of another upward rush in the short term, and the market is expected to fluctuate and correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review Today, the stock index continued to decline on heavy trading volume, while the large - cap index showed resilience. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.8272 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined on heavy trading volume, IH rose on heavy trading volume, and IC and IM declined on reduced trading volume [4]. Important Information Ping An Insurance Group and its asset management subsidiary, Ping An Asset Management, increased their stakes in CPIC H - shares, triggering the mandatory tender offer threshold [5]. Strategy Recommendation For the insurance strategy, it is recommended to hold the underlying assets and buy put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intra - day Return (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume Change (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | - 0.02 | 15.3749 | 2.6975 | 27.1876 | 0.5578 | | IH | 0.48 | 8.709 | 2.0405 | 10.4724 | 0.3248 | | IC | - 1.00 | 11.2146 | 0.5277 | 21.5557 | - 0.9652 | | IM | - 0.95 | 26.5731 | 3.6064 | 36.5293 | - 0.6229 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Return (%) | - 0.46 | | Shenzhen Component Index Return (%) | - 0.87 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.16 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 227.9209 | | Trading Volume Change (billion yuan) | 12.8272 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 14, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Wednesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. The unexpected impact of the production cut at Bisie tin mine in Alphamin's financial report has pushed up short - term tin prices. There is no significant change in demand [3] Summary by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Tin Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 269,820 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Lidofactors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures Market Data - **Daily Futures Data**: - **Shanghai Tin**: The main contract, continuous - one contract, and continuous - three contract prices are 269,820 yuan/ton, 269,820 yuan/ton, and 269,950 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [6] - **LME Tin 3M**: The price is 33,700 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars (- 0.21%) [6] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (- 0.38%) [6] 4. Tin Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Data**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars have increased to varying degrees [14] 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Daily Import and Processing Data**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 5.17% with a daily increase of 856.65 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ores remain unchanged [17] 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Daily Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in SHFE is 7,430 tons, up 0.45% (33 tons). The LME tin inventory is 1,765 tons, up 0.86% (15 tons) [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Copper Price: 79,380 yuan/ton; Monthly price range forecast: 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%; Current volatility historical percentile: 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline; Spot exposure: Long - Strategy 1: Short Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Hedging tool: Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Selling ratio: 75%; Suggested entry range: Around 82,000 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options; Hedging tool: CU2510C82000; Selling ratio: 25%; Suggested entry condition: When volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase; Spot exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Hedging tool: Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Buying ratio: 75%; Suggested entry range: Around 77,000 [2] Group 4: Core View - US inflation data is conducive to Fed rate - cuts, lowering the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector - Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs, believing that current prices have basically fulfilled previous expectations - The previous support level of 77,000 yuan/ton for copper can be raised to 78,000 yuan/ton - The copper term structure has changed from B to C, indicating relatively solid support for this round of price increase [3] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Price Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased rate - cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level is raised [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies may change repeatedly [5] - Global demand may decrease due to tariff policies [6] - US copper tariff policy adjustments lead to extremely high COMEX inventories [6] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: Latest price 79,380 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: Latest price 79,380 yuan/ton, daily change 360, daily change rate 0.46% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: Latest price 79,400 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: Latest price 9,777 US dollars/ton, daily change - 63, daily change rate - 0.64% - Shanghai - London Ratio: Latest ratio 8.18, daily change 0.03, daily change rate 0.37% [5] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper: Latest price 79,475 yuan/ton, daily change 325, daily change rate 0.41% - Shanghai Wumaohui: Latest price 79,415 yuan/ton, daily change 295, daily change rate 0.37% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: Latest price 79,270 yuan/ton, daily change 320, daily change rate 0.41% - Yangtze River Non - ferrous: Latest price 79,510 yuan/ton, daily change 320, daily change rate 0.4% [7] Group 7: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread Data - Current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included): 1,064.89 yuan/ton, daily change - 10, daily change rate - 0.93% - Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included): 1,491.5 yuan/ton, daily change - 0.1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Price advantage (tax - included): - 426.61 yuan/ton, daily change - 9.9, daily change rate 2.38% - Current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded): 5,750 yuan/ton, daily change - 10, daily change rate - 0.17% - Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded): 6,193.01 yuan/ton, daily change - 0.69, daily change rate - 0.01% - Price advantage (tax - excluded): - 443.01 yuan/ton, daily change - 9.31, daily change rate 2.15% [9] Group 8: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total): 22,800 tons, daily change - 3,496 tons, daily change rate - 13.29% - International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total): 7,422 tons, daily change 5,869 tons, daily change rate 377.91% [13] Inventory Data - LME Copper Inventory (Total): 155,875 tons, change 875 tons, change rate 0.56% - COMEX Copper Inventory (Total): 266,795 tons, weekly change 3,691 tons, weekly change rate 1.4% [15][18] Group 9: Copper Import and Processing Data - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 75.33 yuan/ton, daily change 24.95, daily change rate - 24.88% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 38 US dollars/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [19]

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The domestic decision - makers have introduced a series of livelihood and consumption - promoting policies, but the demand repair needs time. The new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan in July due to multiple factors, and the credit cycle has not started. Overseas, the market's expectation of the US interest rate cut has risen again [2]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, but the US inflation stickiness has not been eradicated, and the dollar index may fluctuate around 98 in the short term [4]. - The A - share market rose significantly with heavy volume, and it is expected to have upward space in the short term, but the weak fundamentals may suppress the upward movement of the stock index center if the situation persists [6]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1755 on the previous trading day, up 156 basis points. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 68 basis points. The US inflation is generally stable, and the Jackson Hole meeting may be crucial [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise with heavy volume yesterday, and the small - cap stocks performed strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 269.417 billion yuan. Foreign capital is accelerating its inflow into the Chinese stock market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The bond market was less affected by the strong rise of the A - share market. The 7 - month financing was still supported by government bonds, and the new loans turned negative. It is recommended to buy the next - quarter contracts at low prices [7]. Group 5: Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) continued to decline. The spot prices of some shipping routes have changed. It is expected that the EC will fluctuate and decline or continue to fluctuate in the future [8][9]. Group 6: Commodities - Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut within the year has risen. It is recommended to buy on dips for the medium - and long - term [11][13]. Group 7: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices were in high - level shock. The inflation data in the US is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be in high - level shock in the short term and have upward momentum in the medium term. Alumina is expected to be in weak shock, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate [17][19]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Tin prices fell slightly, and it is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. Group 8: Commodities - Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil followed the decline of coking coal and then stabilized slightly at night. The short - term market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [22][24]. - Iron ore prices declined due to the cooling of sentiment. The short - term supply is neutral, and the demand is expected to be stable, with prices expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices opened lower with a gap. The supply reduction expectation of coking coal is strengthened, and the medium - and long - term trends are not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limit [27][29]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese followed the decline of coal. The demand is supported in the short term, but the long - term demand is uncertain, and they follow the price fluctuations of coal [30][32]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices continued to fall due to the unexpected increase in EIA inventories. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of the "Trump - Putin meeting" on the cease - fire in Ukraine [34][36]. - PX - PTA prices followed the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices [37][39]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle - grade PET prices follow the cost side, and the processing fee is operated in a range [40][42]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44]. - PP and PE prices mainly follow the macro - sentiment fluctuations. The supply and demand of PP are relatively stable, and PE is moving towards a pattern of both supply and demand growth [45][49]. - PVC is recommended to be short - allocated. It is in a state of high valuation, high inventory, and high warehouse receipts [50][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to shrink the pure benzene - styrene price difference at high prices [52][54]. - Fuel oil prices are still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices fell due to the drag of crude oil. Asphalt prices followed the cost side in weak shock [55][59]. - Rubber prices are under pressure above, with internal and external differentiation. It is recommended to expand the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber at low prices [60]. Group 10: Commodities - Building Materials - The prices of soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be in shock. Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, glass is in a weak - balance state, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand [61][65]. - Log prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to buy on dips [66]. Group 11: Agricultural Products - Hog prices are recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [67]. - Oilseeds are recommended to be bought on dips. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean - based products is limited, and the rapeseed - based products can be long - positioned after the short - term rise and fall [68][70]. - The prices of oils are running strongly. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different influencing factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and relationships [71][72]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory of old cotton supports the price, and attention should be paid to the downstream stocking situation [72][73].

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Although the current profit situation of steel mills is good and molten iron production remains high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large fluctuations in the coking coal futures market and intense capital games. The production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, which limits the upside space. Whether ferroalloys can continue to fall depends on the support levels of 5650 for ferrosilicon and 5900 for ferromanganese [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Ferrosilicon**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising ferroalloy prices, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The short - term price of ferroalloys is affected by coking coal prices, while the long - term demand outlook is constrained by the real estate market and the uncertainty of policy - driven demand from the home appliance and automotive industries. The supply of manganese ore is sufficient, and the production of ferroalloys is increasing, which restricts price increases [4]. 3.4利多解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 9.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory is 17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The government's control policies for high - energy - consuming industries are still strict, and the ferromanganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products is 12.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory is 16.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt is 38.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory is 54.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and the profit in the southern region is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [7]. 3.5利空解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output is 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory is 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area is - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and the profit in the Ningxia production area is 48 yuan/ton (-234) [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [7]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [8][9]. 3.7 Seasonal Charts - Seasonal charts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are provided, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and patterns [10][11][19][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) continued their downward trend. As of the close, most monthly contracts declined, with the EC2508 contract showing a slight increase. The continuous reduction of spot cabin quotes on the European line pulled down the futures price valuation, and the far - month contracts declined significantly due to the capital side. The EC2508 contract was supported based on the basis convergence logic. In the future, it is expected that the EC is likely to fluctuate and decline or continue to fluctuate, and in the medium - term, without sudden events, the overall futures price may still decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with over - booked or under - subscribed container space and worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1500 - 1600 to lock in profits [1]. - For those aiming to control costs when shipping companies increase blank sailings or approach the peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to pre - determine booking costs [1]. Market Situation - **Futures Market**: The EC2510 contract had 3067 more long positions (reaching 32036) and 1911 more short positions (reaching 36027), with trading volume increasing by 35198 to 78498 (bilateral) [1]. - **Spot Market**: CMA CGM continued to lower spot cabin quotes on the European line, and the SCFIS European line continued to decline with an expanded decline [3]. EC Basis and Price - **Basis**: On August 13, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 152.48 points, down 1 point daily and 74.08 points weekly. The basis of EC2510 was 902.38 points, up 84.5 points daily and 24.62 points weekly [4][5]. - **Price and Spread**: On August 13, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2083.0 points, up 0.05% daily and 0.56% weekly; EC2510 closed at 1333.1 points, down 5.96% daily and 6.13% weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes - Maersk's 20GP total quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam on August 28 was $1385, up $30 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2330, up $60 [7]. - Hapag - Lloyd's 20GP opening quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam this week was $1535, down $200 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2435, down $400 [7]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS European route was at 2235.48 points, down 62.38 points (-2.71%); SCFIS US - West route was at 1082.14 points, down 47.98 points (-4.25%) [8]. Port Waiting Time - On August 12, 2025, Hong Kong Port's waiting time was 0.340 days, down 0.057 days; Shanghai Port's was 1.523 days, down 0.363 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On August 12, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.968 knots, down 0.22 knots; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 9, down 1 from the previous day [24].