Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Weekend Sino-US trade negotiations showed new progress, and the Fourth Plenary Session's policy orientation continued to influence. Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, with trading volume in the two markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai 50 Index hitting a new high for the year. This week, the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" and Sino - US negotiation results may be announced. It is expected that the stock indices will continue to be strong in the short term, but the upward trend driven by sentiment may not be sustainable. Today, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the short - selling willingness increased, reflecting market doubts about the upward trend. In terms of index style, small - and medium - cap stocks were dominant, but their advantage was not obvious, and the sustainability of small - cap stocks' dominance is limited [4] Market Review - Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The CSI 300 Index closed up 1.19%. The trading volume in the two markets increased by 365.922 billion yuan, and stock index futures rose with increased volume [3] Important Information - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur: Reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns, and agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [4] - US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest in three months, increasing the expectation of another Fed rate cut this year [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted 900 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations in October, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. After hedging the matured reverse repurchase, the net investment of medium - term liquidity in October reached 60 billion yuan, maintaining a high level, showing a moderately loose monetary policy [4] - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 3.2% [4] Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 1.24 | 11.3332 | - 0.2849 | 26.2244 | 0.6831 | | IH | 0.74 | 5.6298 | - 0.2681 | 9.8162 | 0.2833 | | IC | 1.76 | 13.6694 | - 0.1034 | 25.2585 | 0.8981 | | IM | 0.75 | 21.4742 | - 0.9711 | 35.8844 | 0.9755 | [6] Spot Market | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 1.51 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.32 | | Trading Volume in Two Markets (billion yuan) | 2340.132 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 365.922 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the low high - quality fruit rate due to continuous rain delaying the harvest time and reducing the sales period, and the uncertainty of apple storage volume. The storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year, while Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher but with lower effective inventory, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. - In the short - term trading logic, the market bets on the quality and low high - quality fruit rate of late Fuji apples, causing the futures price to rise. The recent increase of 11, 12, and 01 contracts is weaker than that of the far - month contracts because the logic that the later the contract, the fewer deliverable fruits, prevails [3]. - In the long - term trading logic, the market expects the price to decline after a high opening price. However, if the low high - quality fruit rate leads to low storage data and a shortage of high - quality fruits in the later sales period, the 05 contract may have no goods for delivery [4]. - The upward momentum of apple prices has increased recently, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, indicating a lack of confidence in further price increases [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The main reason for the recent rise in apple futures prices is the low high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rain has postponed the harvest time in the east and west regions, and the approaching frost has compressed the sales period [2]. - Affected by the quality decline, the storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year. Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The upward momentum of apple prices has increased, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, with a net long position of only 1632 lots [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: There is no basis strategy. The recommended spread strategy is to short the 01 - 05 spread [8][9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of apples is predicted to be 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 26.6% (3 - year) [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a bumper harvest, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2601, sell, 25%, entry range 8900 - 9000) and sell call options (AP2601C, sell, 25%, entry range 200 - 300) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when worried about high purchase prices due to low inventory and a shortage of high - quality fruits, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2601, buy, 75%, entry range 8600 - 8700) and sell put options (AP2511P8600, buy, 75%, entry range 150 - 180) to lock in purchase costs and reduce costs [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - In Gansu, there is no more apple supply for purchase. In Shandong, the supply has increased recently, about one week later than usual. The prices of different grades of apples are as follows: 80 above general goods are 2.4 - 2.8 yuan/jin, first - and second - grade semi - products are 2.8 - 3.4 yuan/jin, and first - and second - grade products are 3.2 - 3.6 yuan/jin. Shaanxi has a serious water - rot problem, and merchants have suspended purchases. In Liaoning, high - quality apples are attractive, with prices exceeding 4 yuan/jin [11]. - The opening prices of western late Fuji apples are 0.5 - 1 yuan/jin higher than last year [11]. - The number of apple trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong has fluctuated significantly. After the Mid - Autumn Festival, the number has decreased. The sales of new late Fuji high - quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some inventory backlog in transit warehouses [13]. - The cold storage of new apples in Gansu is likely to be lower than last year. In Shandong, the effective inventory will be lower due to quality problems. In Shaanxi, the storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Information No information provided in the report. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Last week, the apple futures price rose, but the main contract fluctuated greatly, and the price increase was much smaller than that of the 05 contract. The total apple position is similar to that of last year and the year before. The profitable seats reduced their positions last week. Technically, the main contract of apple futures maintains an oscillating upward structure, and the short - term trend is still strong [19]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Apple Basis Structure**: The apple basis structure is very complex. The quality of apples varies each year, and the grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest are different. The futures delivery rules are constantly changing, and the number of deliverable fruits this year is unknown due to the low overall quality [21]. - **Apple Spread Structure**: The apple spread structure has typical large - volume fluctuations when the near - month contract approaches the delivery month, which is related to the number of deliverable fruits. According to seasonal rules, the 10 - contract trades the opening price, and the short - term supply is much lower than that of the 11 - and 12 - contracts. The 01 - contract is around the Spring Festival, with a relatively large delivery volume and tight delivery time. However, due to the low overall quality of apples this year, the pre - festival contract may be weak, and the post - festival high - quality apples may be in short supply and strengthen [21][22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Apple profits are mainly divided into planting profits and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined. Due to the large number of low - quality apples and a shortage of high - quality apples this year, storage is facing a huge test [24]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - According to the previous bagging data, the 25/26 apple season is expected to have a slight increase in production, with a 2.35% increase to 3736.64 million tons. Shaanxi is expected to increase production by 7.57% to 878.84 million tons, Shandong to decrease by 9.89% to 782.37 million tons, Gansu to increase by 2.18% to 379.15 million tons, Henan to increase by 21.09% to 274.28 million tons, and Shanxi to increase by 28.39% to 352.19 million tons. However, considering only the bagging number cannot accurately infer the production, and not considering the quality cannot determine the price. Due to dry - hot wind in April 2025 and excessive rainfall since September, the final apple production may decrease compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to be boosted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino-US trade negotiations, with short - term strength and small - cap stocks relatively stronger [3][4]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.15, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 7.10 [2][3]. - The shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward shift, and a long - biased strategy can be considered [6][7][10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase but will continue to rise in the medium term. Attention should be paid to mid - term buying opportunities [12][15]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be in high - level oscillation, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in high - level oscillation [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a state of oscillation, waiting for clear signals [22]. - Tin is expected to be in high - level oscillation [23]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to be in a range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton with a slightly upward - biased oscillation [23][24][25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and investors should be cautious [25][26][27]. - Lead is expected to be in high - level oscillation, and option double - selling can be considered to earn premiums [27][28]. - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and iron ore prices are under pressure [30][31]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but face the risk of a pull - back, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [35][36]. - LPG prices are expected to be strong in the short term [37][38]. - PTA - PX prices are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [39][40][41]. - MEG - bottle chips are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [42][43]. - Urea prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [43][44]. - PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [45][46]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [47][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [49][50]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited, and low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity; glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery; caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Key events include Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the speech of Takaichi Sanae, and the slowdown of the US core CPI growth rate in September [1][2]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policies are being implemented to support the economy, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the "14th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the RMB exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1230 on the previous trading day, down 9 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0928, down 10 basis points [2]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated upward in the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 3303.00 billion yuan [3]. - Affected by the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino - US trade negotiations, the stock index is expected to be strong in the short term, and small - cap stocks are relatively stronger [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market fluctuated and declined last week, and the capital market was loose [5]. - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" goals, the A - share market rose, and the bond market was under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - level layout opportunities [5]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European Line) futures rebounded on October 24, with the main contract EC2512 rising 3.14% [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include Sino - US economic and trade consultations, shipping companies' price - support strategies, and port operation disruptions. Negative factors include the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and macro risks [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Precious metals were adjusted last week, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Silver's short - term squeeze has ended, and the short - term safe - haven sentiment has weakened [12]. - The inventory of gold and silver ETFs decreased last week, and the COMEX and SHFE inventories also changed [13]. Copper - The domestic copper price rose last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume and open interest increasing. The external copper price was weaker than the domestic price [16]. - The production and sales of Freeport - McMoRan decreased in the third quarter, and China's anode copper imports were at a low level in 2025. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises decreased, and consumption was weak [17]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The Shanghai aluminum price was strong last week, and the alumina price was weak. The cast aluminum alloy price followed the Shanghai aluminum price [20]. - The macro policy affects the Shanghai aluminum price, and the overseas supply of aluminum has been disturbed. Alumina is in a situation of over - supply, and the cost support is not stable [20]. Zinc - The zinc price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The external zinc price was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc price was driven up [21]. - The supply of domestic smelting is stable, and the overseas supply has decreased. The price difference has widened, and the LME zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices rose slightly last trading day [22]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel have not changed significantly. The new regulations on nickel ore quotas in Indonesia are stricter, and the demand for new energy is strong. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the stainless steel price is expected to be in wide - range oscillation [22]. Tin - The Shanghai tin price was in high - level oscillation last trading day, and the fundamentals have not changed. The supply of tin is weaker than the demand, and the short - term support is around 276,000 yuan [23]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rose last week, with the trading volume and open interest increasing [23]. - The spot market of the lithium - battery industry was active last week. The supply of lithium salt is expected to increase in October, and the demand for downstream lithium - battery materials is expected to increase by the end of the year [24][25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly last week, while the polysilicon futures price fell [25][26]. - The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The polysilicon industry is in a situation of production reduction and inventory accumulation [26][27]. Lead - The Shanghai lead price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The environmental protection policy in Hebei has affected the transportation of lead, and the supply of lead is in a tight - balance situation [27][28]. Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly last week. The profit of steel mills decreased, and the production of crude steel is expected to decline slightly. The price of iron ore is under pressure due to over - supply [30][31]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. Crude Oil - The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose last week [35]. - The crude oil market is boosted by geopolitical and macro factors, but there is a risk of over - shooting. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [36]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose last week. The supply of LPG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The port inventory decreased [37]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong in the short term, driven by geopolitical and macro factors [38]. PTA - PX - The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester demand is stable, and the terminal demand has improved marginally [39][40]. - The PTA - PX price is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [41]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports increased. The supply of MEG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired [42][43]. - The MEG price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [43]. Urea - The urea futures price rose last week, and the spot price was firm. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [43][44]. - The urea price is expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [44]. PP - The PP futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PP decreased slightly, and the demand had some elasticity. The inventory decreased [45][46]. - The PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [46]. PE - The PE futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PE is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased slightly [47][48]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene price is expected to be weak due to over - supply and weak demand. The benzene - ethylene supply is expected to increase, and the de - stocking pressure is large [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [50]. Fuel Oil - The cracking upside of high - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. Asphalt - The asphalt price increased last week. The supply of asphalt decreased, and the demand was flat. The inventory structure improved [52]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. Glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery. Caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The prices of pulp and offset paper futures rose last week. The spot price of pulp was stable [55]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental valuation of urea is low. Without further adjustments to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term internal drive of the industry is weak, and both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are sluggish, so the medium - term trend is weak. The production cost of gas - based enterprises cannot effectively support the price at present. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new export quotas. Macro factors also need to be monitored [2]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. In the absence of export policy adjustments, it will accumulate inventory in Q4. Industry internal drive is weak, and demand from compound fertilizer and industry is sluggish, leading to a weak medium - term trend. Gas - based production costs can't support prices. New export quotas and macro factors should be watched [2]. - For the near - term, although new delivery warehouses are added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. With the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, a reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is appropriate. The 01 contract still has a premium due to autumn fertilizer expectations [5]. - For the long - term, domestic daily urea production fluctuated between 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays, then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand, especially agricultural demand, is weak [10][20]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea will fluctuate weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750. Short at prices above 1750 and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [12]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, contracts 11, 12, 01 have a weak unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to when pre - holiday price cuts for order collection increase. Contracts 02, 03, 04, 05 are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. For spread strategies, the upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread. No hedging arbitrage strategy is recommended [13][14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1st, with the opening on October 15th and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: Urea daily production has been above 19 million tons this year, and inventory pressure is high. Market confidence is lacking due to falling prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [17][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 19th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng of the State Council agreed with the US to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held next week, and it is an important time - point for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [19]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic daily urea production fluctuated around 19.5 - 20.1 million tons around holidays and then dropped to around 19.5 million tons. Inventory increased after the holiday, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories have large - scale shutdowns. The impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculation has weakened, and downstream procurement willingness is low [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that export growth cannot offset the weakening domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short urea futures, buy put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buy urea futures, sell put options [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of urea's production costs (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) and production profits (water - coal - slurry gasification, fixed - bed) [31][34][36]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, and capacity utilization of different production methods (coal - based, natural - gas) [40][42]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides the seasonal data of China's urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [44][46][48]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal data of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as the data of melamine's production profit, capacity utilization, and market price in different regions [50][52][56]. 4.5 Spot Sales and Production Tracking - The report shows the seasonal data of urea's average sales and production, and sales and production in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, East China) [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment was released after the meeting, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly 10 years. Driven by the macro sentiment, the main methanol price first declined and then rose last week. However, from the perspective of the methanol's fundamental situation, the outlook for the 01 contract is not optimistic [2]. - The current shipping volume from Iran is around 800,000 tons. Affected by sanctions, the expected shipping volume in October is around 800,000 tons. The temperature in Iran is still warmer than last year, and the mainstream expectation for plant shutdown is mid - November. Considering Iran's price concessions, the expected shipping volume from Iran has been adjusted [2]. - On the non - Iranian side, the operation rate of Tebah has dropped significantly due to port fees, and it is estimated that the non - Iranian shipping volume will decline to below 500,000 tons, but the actual situation needs further assessment. Chile and New Zealand may fill the gap [2]. - In the domestic market, Baofeng made external procurement inquiries in the second half of the week but did not make actual purchases. Yangmei is expected to shut down for 40 days starting early November. Luxi MTO reduced external procurement due to profit reasons, and Luqing's methanol - to - hydrogen unit was shut down for maintenance for one month, both of which were unplanned [2]. - Overall, the inventory accumulation at ports has started to level off. Due to unloading and sanctions, the inventory endpoint in October has been lowered, but the inventory endpoint for the 01 contract has increased. The import cost is about 100 yuan lower than the 01 contract's futures price [2]. - The short - term trading focus is on the Sino - US negotiation. In October, Iran's shipping volume remained high, reaching 800,000 tons, and the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year [8]. - The long - term controversy lies in how to reduce the port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread. The process is affected by macro sentiment [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The macro - led methanol price movement contrasts with the weak fundamental situation of the 01 contract. Iran's shipping volume, non - Iranian supply, domestic plant operations, and port inventory all impact the market [2]. - Recommendations include reducing the short - put position for the 01 contract and selling call options for the 01 contract [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: No specific content provided. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2279. With high shipping volume from Iran and no vessel pick - up due to port closures, the 01 basis weakened [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: As Iran's shipping volume continued to accelerate, reaching 800,000 tons, and with little expectation for early gas restrictions this year, the 1 - 5 spread showed a reverse spread [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term, with the 2601 contract operating between 2250 - 2350. The recommendation is to reduce the short - put position for the 2601 contract and sell call options [13]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Information on inland inventory includes the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), MTO inventory in the northwest, and inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, as well as national plant inventory and net plant inventory [22][26][27]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Information on port inventory includes the weekly inventory of Chinese methanol ports, regional port inventories (such as in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc.), and related data on port to - arrival volume, stockpiles, and shipping volume [37][39][40] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and entry intervals [63]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have led to some vessels being unable to dock and unload, and importer replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. Lianhong Phase II's 450,000 - ton MTO unit is expected to start production as early as the end of November [66]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 800,000 tons so far in October [67]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 26th, Chinese and US economic and trade officials held discussions and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [68]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, the performance of production areas was weaker than that of sales areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week, the prices in production areas declined due to factors such as no external procurement from northwest olefin plants and the intention of methanol plants to maintain low inventory [69]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened mainly due to sanctions on Iran [71]. 4. Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report tracks the prices of coal in Erdos and Qinhuangdao ports, as well as the market prices of methanol in Shandong and Taicang. It also includes information on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [74][76][79]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions are analyzed, along with the profits of MTO units and traditional downstream industries [85][87][90]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The operation rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol), and downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) are tracked, as well as the weekly production volumes of different types of methanol [93][97][102]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, import profits, and price spreads between different regions are analyzed [129][130][131]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operation rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are tracked [135][136][137]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet for 2025 shows the daily and monthly production, import, consumption, and inventory data of methanol, including different production types (CTO, non - CTO), demand sectors (MTO, non - MTO), and inventory in ports and inland areas [138]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in the domestic methanol industry, some plants in North China increased their operation rates, some in Central China recovered, and in the Northwest, there were both restarts and shutdowns for maintenance [139]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units such as Xingxing and Chengzhi resumed or increased their operation rates. New demand projects like Lianhong Phase II's MTO unit are ahead of schedule and have started stockpiling. Iran maintains a high shipping volume [140].

商品策略周报 I 2025 年 10 月 27 日 原油借制裁东风 本周主要观点： 风险点：反内卷政策落实、中美谈判进展、宏观政策变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1. 不管涨势还是跌势，很难会持续流畅。毕竟，市场中有很多 品种，彼此面对的基本面或节奏都不同，大盘指数出现反 弹，很正常。反而对于趋势没有走完的品种来说，更是一次 绝佳的加仓机会。至少我们并不认为原油和钢材会有持续的 上涨行情。对于农产品而言，估值偏低，仍须等待中美贸易 和关税有了初步眉目，才有更好的安全边际。 2. 策略方面，原油暂时偏强，追涨有风险。 原油借制裁东风 商品策略周报 I 2025 年 10 月 27 日 周行情观点综述 近期商品市场出现持续的反弹，一方面是部分品种的超跌反弹，另一方面，也 是由于美国再次制裁俄罗斯，引发市场担忧原油供应问题。从涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives, with the balance tilting towards the negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent crude prices, but if the situation does not escalate, prices may fall next week. Medium - to - long - term, supply is sufficient and demand is weak, and geopolitical positives cannot change the long - term trend [1]. - Near - term trading is mainly a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous pressure of supply surplus [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent by $2 - 3, but the risk is only at the news - disturbance stage. Medium - to - long - term, Russia can adjust supply and OPEC is ready to increase production, while demand is weak [1]. - Near - term trading logic is a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with supply surplus pressure and slowing demand growth [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in short - term rebound repair and medium - term weak oscillation. - Strategy suggestions: For single - side trading, short at high levels when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68, with a stop - loss at $70; for arbitrage, use reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: New sanctions on Russia by the US and EU have raised concerns about supply disruptions and pushed up oil prices. The unexpected decline in US crude inventories also supported prices [7]. - **Negative Information**: Trump's response to the Venezuela military situation and the possibility of a Trump - Putin meeting [8]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - OPEC + meeting: Whether to adjust the production - increase plan will affect oil prices. - Execution of sanctions on Russia: Strong execution may push up prices, while weak execution has limited impact. - Development of trade tensions: A trade agreement may boost demand and prices, while further tension will depress prices [10]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - This week, crude oil prices rebounded and were supported by geopolitical risk premiums. On Friday, US crude futures fell 0.57% to $61.44/barrel, up 7.51% for the week; Brent crude futures fell 0.57% to $64.92/barrel, up 7.06% for the week [12]. - **Domestic Market**: SC2512 rose 6.87% this week. Last week, its trading volume was 680,800 lots, and open interest increased by 41,065 lots. - **International Market**: As of October 21, ICE Brent crude futures open interest increased by 128,998 lots week - on - week, while managed funds' net long positions decreased by 58,520 lots [14][15]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 24, Brent and WTI monthly spreads strengthened, while domestic and Middle - East spreads weakened, showing that geopolitical support cannot offset weak fundamentals [23]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24, the SC - Brent spread widened negatively, and the Brent - WTI spread widened, as external crude oil was more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [27]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24, European crude oil cracking spreads strengthened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, cracking spreads weakened and refinery profits continued to decline [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude production was 13.629 million barrels/day, down 0.7 million barrels/day week - on - week. From October 18 - 24, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 2 to 420 [46]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US refinery crude input increased by 600,000 barrels/day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate rose 2.9 percentage points. From October 17 - 23, the utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased by 0.61 percentage points, and that of major refineries decreased by 0.34 percentage points [48]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 17, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels week - on - week, strategic petroleum inventories increased by 819,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels [50]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude exports decreased by 263,000 barrels/day week - on - week, while petroleum product exports increased by 353,000 barrels/day. From October 7 - 13, Middle - East seaborne crude exports decreased by 10.65% week - on - week, and Russian seaborne crude exports increased by 16.70% [52]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA raised its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC kept its demand forecasts unchanged. IEA slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [55][56].