Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practice License No.: F03143348) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 3: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Polyethylene Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 7200 - 7400 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.94% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 11.1% [3] - Inventory Management Strategy: For high - level finished product inventory, sell L2509 futures at 25% ratio in the range of 7350 - 7400 and sell L2510C7400 call options at 50% ratio in the range of 50 - 100 [3] - Procurement Management Strategy: For low - level procurement inventory, buy L2509 futures at 50% ratio in the range of 7200 - 7250 and sell L2510P7200 put options at 75% ratio in the range of 30 - 70 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal price fluctuations. PE is moving towards a supply - demand growth pattern. Supply is increasing as the maintenance season ends, and demand is transitioning from off - season to peak season but with a slow recovery speed. Near - term PE supply - demand pressure is not large, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation if demand recovery is less than expected [4] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factor: Demand is expected to improve after August [5] - Bearish Factors: Jilin Petrochemical has recently started production, and ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant is expected to start production in August - September. LLDPE inventory is at a high level [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic Main Contract Basis: 8 yuan/ton on August 14, with a daily change of 26 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 30 yuan/ton [7] - L01 Contract Price: 7343 yuan/ton on August 14, a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton [7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - North China Spot Price: 7290 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 80 yuan/ton weekly [9] - East China Spot Price: 7360 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent Crude Oil Price: 66 dollars/barrel on August 14, unchanged daily and a decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel weekly [9] - US Ethane Price: 0.2026 dollars/gallon on August 14, a daily decrease of 0.0024 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0137 dollars/gallon [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the near term, both supply and demand of pure benzene have increased. The balance sheet shows that pure benzene will experience a slight destocking in August and September, with an improved supply - demand pattern. However, due to high hidden inventories and poor terminal demand, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. Styrene faces an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The balance sheet indicates a continuous supply surplus from August to September, with weak fundamentals. But supported by peak - season expectations, the downward space is also limited. Attention can be paid to potential demand growth in styrene exports. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, and consider narrowing the spread between pure benzene and styrene when the price is high [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is in the range of 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2509C7400) with a 50% ratio at a range of 25 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if styrene prices rise [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2509P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 25 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene prices fall [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Recently, there have been many downstream projects of pure benzene put into production, including aniline, phenol, and styrene, which has improved the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene. As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.43%. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 14.88 tons, a decrease of 1.02 tons or 6.42% from the previous period. Both pure benzene and styrene continued to destock. There are many rumors about styrene exports in the market, and there may be demand growth in the export end [5] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The downstream of styrene is in the seasonal off - season. In the previous cycle, there was a significant increase in short - term shutdown and production - reduction devices in the EPS industry, and downstream factories mainly made rigid - demand purchases of raw materials. The production schedule data of three major white - goods in late July showed that the future production schedule of white - goods was still poor, and the terminal consumption demand expectation of styrene in the third quarter was pessimistic [6] Basis and Spread Analysis - The report provides the daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene, as well as the spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot, paper - cargo, and futures spreads, and their changes from August 13 to August 14 [8] Price Data of the Industrial Chain - The report presents the price data of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain on August 14, 13, and 7, 2025, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products, as well as their production profits and changes [8][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - to long - term trend of coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but there is a certain callback pressure on the black futures market in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - risk events at home and abroad such as parade production restrictions, Fed rate - cut games, and the Fourth Plenary Session [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for coking coal is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the predicted monthly price range is 1600 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For raw material procurement, when coking enterprises have a coking coal replenishment plan but haven't determined the purchase price and are worried about price increases affecting profits, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract JM2601 at an entry range of (1150, 1200) [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 2382 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 78386 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 lots, coking coal remained unchanged at 800 lots, coke increased by 20 lots, ferrosilicon increased by 373 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 87 sheets [3] 3.4 Core Contradictions - Supply - side disturbances such as over - production inspections in Shanxi coal mines and the "276 - working - day" policy have emerged. The resumption of production in coal mines has slowed down, and "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. There are also disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, strengthening the expectation of reduced coking coal supply. In the off - season, macro factors have a greater impact on the futures market. The trading focus of far - month contracts lies in unfalsifiable policy expectations, and "anti - involution" may be hyped repeatedly. Steel mill profits are still resilient, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on the over - heated sentiment in the coking coal and coke market [4] 3.5 Bullish Interpretations - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [4] 3.6 Bearish Interpretations - The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the procurement demand for coking coal and coke is rigid. However, the import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on future arrivals. The apparent demand for rebar is lower than expected, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. The Dalian Commodity Exchange has imposed position limits on the main coking coal contract, which is expected to reduce the speculation degree of coking coal [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke contracts, the spread between different contracts, and indicators such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio have all changed to varying degrees [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - On August 14, 2025, compared with August 13, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties remained mostly unchanged, with only slight changes in some prices. The import and export profits of coking coal and coke also changed, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal decreased [8][9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Intraday Correction of Previous Gains, Risk Management Daily Report on August 14 - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] 1. Price Range Forecast 1.1. Nickel - Price Range: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] 1.2. Stainless Steel - Price Range: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 9.27% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 1.8% [2] 2. Risk Management Strategies 2.1. Nickel 2.1.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell NI main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [2] 2.1.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month NI contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [2] 2.2. Stainless Steel 2.2.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell SS main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [3] 2.2.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month SS contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Intraday, Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with no obvious changes in fundamentals. Nickel ore arrival inventory remained at a high level, and the bottom support was loosening, with a clear situation of strong supply and weak demand. Nickel iron remained firm intraday, with strong price support willingness from the supply side, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remained to be considered. The new energy chain salt plants had some support recently, with increased demand from some downstream precursor plants and relatively stable transactions. Stainless steel also corrected its previous gains intraday, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 13,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the previous follow-up increase in transactions was poor, and there was a certain downward adjustment at present. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continued. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [4] 4. Market Analysis 4.1. Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel [6] 4.2. Bearish Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - Pure nickel inventory is high - Seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, with loosening bottom support - Sino-US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti-dumping duties on China's hot-rolled products [6] 5. Market Data 5.1. Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 121,200 | -1,140 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1 | 121,200 | -1,140 | -0.93% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2 | 121,340 | -1,130 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3 | 121,530 | -1,140 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | -120 | -0.93% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 102,257 | 12,747 | 14.24% | lots | | Open Interest | 66,437 | -4,493 | -6.33% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 20,720 | 142 | 0.69% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | -660 | 620 | -48.4% | yuan/ton | [6] 5.2. Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 13,025 | -105 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1 | 12,945 | -100 | -0.77% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2 | 13,025 | -105 | -0.80% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3 | 13,090 | -95 | -0.72% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 160,562 | 238 | 0.15% | lots | | Open Interest | 135,237 | -8,989 | -6.23% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 103,521 | 3 | 0.00% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 340 | 70 | 25.93% | yuan/ton | [7] 6. Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change from Previous Period (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory | 40,572 | 1,086 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 211,140 | 42 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 954 | -12.2 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 33,415 | 182 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures continued to fluctuate. Except for a slight decline in the EC2510 contract, the prices of the remaining monthly contracts slightly rebounded. After consecutive declines, most contracts have reached short - term lows, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the market trading sentiment was relatively calm, so the futures prices rebounded today. For the future, the current futures prices are gradually approaching the spot cabin quotation level, and it is expected that the EC will likely continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, based on fundamental considerations, the overall futures price trend may still decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about the decline in freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When the shipping company's blank - sailing intensity increases or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to the rise in freight rates and determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 3.2 Market News and Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement about expanding Israel's boundaries has caused controversy and anger in Arab countries, which may potentially affect the shipping market [2]. - **Negative Factors**: Evergreen continues to lower the spot cabin quotation for the European Line, and the SCFIS European Line continues to decline with an enlarged decline [3]. 3.3 EC Data - **EC Basis Daily Changes**: On August 14, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 151.58 points, with a daily decline of 0.90 points and a weekly decline of 73.58 points; the basis of EC2510 was 875.98 points, with a daily decline of 26.40 points and a weekly decline of 1.48 points; etc. [4]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2083.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1359.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.98% and a weekly decline of 4.29%; etc. [4]. 3.4 Spot Cabin Quotations - On August 28, for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP was $1390, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2340, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period. At the end of August, for Evergreen's Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping schedule, the opening quote for 20GP was $1955, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2960, a decrease of $200 compared to the previous period [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Indexes - On August 14, 2025, the latest value of SCFIS for the European Line was 2235.48 points, a decrease of 62.38 points or 2.71% compared to the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US West Line was 1082.14 points, a decrease of 47.98 points or 4.25% compared to the previous value; etc. [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 13, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.486 days, an increase of 0.146 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.386 days, a decrease of 0.137 days compared to the previous day; etc. [14]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On August 13, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.952 knots, a decrease of 0.016 knots compared to the previous day; the speed of 3000 + container ships was 15.031 knots, an increase of 0.209 knots compared to the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 8, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day [23].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Commodity Index Daily Report [2] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Author: Nanhua Index Group, including Cao Yanghui, Zhao Bo, and Wang Yilin [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.81% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose by 0.02%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The sector with the largest decline was the Nanhua Black Index, down -1.56%, and the sector with the smallest decline was the Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index, down -0.63%. All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04%. Among the single-variety indices of commodity futures, the caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][3][4]. Index Performance Summary Composite and Sector Indices - Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI): Closed at 2534.95, down -0.81% from the previous close of 2555.72, with an annualized return of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 13.73% [3]. - Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI): Closed at 1261.11, up 0.02% from 1260.91, with an annualized return of 29.51% and an annualized volatility of 16.60% [3]. - Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII): Closed at 3650.38, down -0.89% from 3683.10, with an annualized return of -6.10% and an annualized volatility of 16.15% [3]. - Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI): Closed at 6464.57, down -1.02% from 6531.47, with an annualized return of 1.60% and an annualized volatility of 14.94% [3]. - Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI): Closed at 1681.16, down -0.70% from 1693.04, with an annualized return of -12.75% and an annualized volatility of 18.40% [3]. - Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF): Closed at 1713.87, down -0.63% from 1724.76, with an annualized return of 5.63% and an annualized volatility of 13.41% [3]. - Nanhua Black Index (NHFI): Closed at 2582.71, down -1.56% from 2623.70, with an annualized return of -8.58% and an annualized volatility of 21.92% [3]. - Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI): Closed at 1113.19, down -0.86% from 1122.89, with an annualized return of 5.55% and an annualized volatility of 9.53% [3]. - Nanhua Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi): Closed at 1191.43, down -0.91% from 1202.38, with an annualized return of 3.23% and an annualized volatility of 14.63% [3]. - Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI): Closed at 1058.07, down -1.05% from 1069.32, with an annualized return of 2.54% and an annualized volatility of 29.87% [3]. - Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI): Closed at 945.19, down -0.85% from 953.29, with an annualized return of 0.75% and an annualized volatility of 15.28% [3]. - Nanhua Coal Chemical Index (NHCCI): Closed at 1036.33, down -1.00% from 1046.83, with an annualized return of 1.17% and an annualized volatility of 17.17% [3]. - Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM): Closed at 1067.01, down -1.99% from 1088.67, with an annualized return of 7.32% and an annualized volatility of 23.31% [3]. - Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI): Closed at 763.35, down -0.72% from 768.87, with an annualized return of 3.25% and an annualized volatility of 23.12% [3]. - Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI): Closed at 1287.05, down -1.18% from 1302.40, with an annualized return of 3.74% and an annualized volatility of 10.27% [3]. - Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI): Closed at 910.15, down -0.04% from 910.49, with an annualized return of 1.89% and an annualized volatility of 5.65% [3]. Theme Indices - All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04% [4] Single-Variety Indices - The caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][4] Contribution to Index Movements - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.15%), while negative contributors included zinc (-1.52%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.44%), while negative contributors included zinc (-32.55%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.69%), while negative contributors included iron ore (-1.68%), crude oil (-1.61%), and zinc (-1.67%) [8] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive contributors included caustic soda (2.54%), while negative contributors included tin (-6.52%), aluminum (-3.51%), and zinc (-3.51%) [8] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.47%), while negative contributors included crude oil (-16.62%), iron ore (-19.37%), and PVC (-9.11%) [8] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors included cotton (1.45%), while negative contributors included rapeseed meal (-17.58%), palm oil (-22.79%), and soybean meal (-14.26%) [8] Other Information - The calculation of price changes is (today's closing price - yesterday's closing price) / yesterday's closing price, and the contribution is the product of price change and weight [11] - The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the price difference when changing commodity contracts, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [11] - The contribution calculation method used is: a variety's daily price change / ∑|all varieties' daily price changes|, with yellow data bars indicating a daily increase and blue data bars indicating a daily decrease [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Yesterday, it was suggested that there might be significant resistance near the upper pressure line of the stock market. Today, the stock market rose on strong trading volume but retreated in the late session, which was in line with expectations. At the industry level, affected by the information of Ping An Insurance Group's stake - increase, the financial sector showed a relatively strong trend. The banking sector was also supported to some extent by the transfer of profit - taking funds to high - dividend industries and showed resilience. In the futures index market, small - cap futures indexes pulled back significantly, while large - cap indexes were more resilient. After a failed attempt to break through and with most of the week's key data released, it is expected that market investment will turn cautious. There is only a small probability of another upward rush in the short term, and the market is expected to fluctuate and correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review Today, the stock index continued to decline on heavy trading volume, while the large - cap index showed resilience. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.8272 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined on heavy trading volume, IH rose on heavy trading volume, and IC and IM declined on reduced trading volume [4]. Important Information Ping An Insurance Group and its asset management subsidiary, Ping An Asset Management, increased their stakes in CPIC H - shares, triggering the mandatory tender offer threshold [5]. Strategy Recommendation For the insurance strategy, it is recommended to hold the underlying assets and buy put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intra - day Return (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume Change (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | - 0.02 | 15.3749 | 2.6975 | 27.1876 | 0.5578 | | IH | 0.48 | 8.709 | 2.0405 | 10.4724 | 0.3248 | | IC | - 1.00 | 11.2146 | 0.5277 | 21.5557 | - 0.9652 | | IM | - 0.95 | 26.5731 | 3.6064 | 36.5293 | - 0.6229 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Return (%) | - 0.46 | | Shenzhen Component Index Return (%) | - 0.87 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.16 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 227.9209 | | Trading Volume Change (billion yuan) | 12.8272 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目 ...