Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The V2601 contract of PVC ended at 5008 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the PVC capacity utilization rate increase by 0.87% week-on-week to 80.33% last week. The demand side had the downstream PVC开工率 decrease by 0.1% week-on-week to 42.75% last week. PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week-on-week to 81.14 million tons. This week, due to plant overhauls, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the medium to long term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor-alkali profits provide room for increasing PVC plant load, so the future supply pressure remains unoptimistic. Domestic downstream demand is in the off-season with only rigid procurement. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented as early as September. The rainy season still hinders short - term overseas demand transmission. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5008 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 960,719 lots, a daily increase of 280,340 lots. The open interest was 943,093 lots, a daily increase of 20,013 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 852,889 lots, a daily decrease of 3,341 lots. The short positions were 921,736 lots, a daily decrease of 15,497 lots. The net long positions were - 68,847 lots, a daily increase of 12,156 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5065 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4777.69 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 46.54 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4955 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4846.56 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 32.81 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 251 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2548.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.96%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%. The total social inventory of PVC was 492,800 tons, a daily increase of 12,000 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 435,200 tons, a daily increase of 11,500 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 57,600 tons, a daily increase of 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a monthly decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35.206 million square meters, a monthly increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, a monthly increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.25%, a daily decrease of 3.7%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 22.06%, a daily decrease of 0.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.39%, a daily decrease of 1.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.4%, a daily decrease of 14.17% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC. The rate for mainland China will be raised much higher than that for other countries and regions. - On August 20, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4700 to 4800 yuan/ton. - From August 9 to August 15, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. - As of August 14, PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week - on - week to 81.14 million tons and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: PE production last week increased 0.14% to 661,100 tons, and capacity utilization rose 1.1% to 86.82%. With the impact of shutdown devices expanding, this week's PE production and capacity utilization are expected to decline [2]. - Demand side: PE downstream product average开工率 increased 0.4% last week, with the agricultural film开工率 up 0.8%. The agricultural film is transitioning to the peak season, with greenhouse film orders gradually accumulating, and food and daily - chemical packaging film having sporadic orders, mainly for rigid demand. Overall, PE demand is seasonally increasing [2]. - Inventory: Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.76% to 444,500 tons, and social inventory decreased 1.22% to 568,700 tons, with low overall inventory pressure [2]. - Cost: The situation of strong supply and weak demand for crude oil continues, and positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks are continuously released. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - Technical analysis: For the L2601 daily K - line, pay attention to the support around 7,230 yuan/ton and the pressure around 7,400 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread is - 39, unchanged [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 400,529 lots, and the open interest is 381,563 lots, an increase of 21,423 lots [2]. - Top 20 positions: The buy order volume is 316,320 lots, an increase of 12,132 lots; the sell order volume is 342,353 lots, an increase of 9,715 lots; the net buy order volume is - 26,033 lots, an increase of 2,417 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,291.3 yuan/ton, down 12.61 yuan/ton; in East China, it is 7,380 yuan/ton, down 8.57 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 15.7, up 14.39 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.14 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation The national PE petrochemical开工率 is 84.2%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Packaging film开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 49.07%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. - Pipe开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) pipes is 30%, up 1 percentage point [2]. - Agricultural film开工率: The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film is 13.82%, up 0.75 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 9.79%, down 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.96%, down 1.71 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 9.34%, down 1.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.31%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China will conduct a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, gradually eliminate small facilities, upgrade backward production capacity, and direct investment to advanced materials [2]. - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene production was 661,100 tons, a 0.14% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase [2]. - From August 8th to 14th, the average开工率 of China's polyethylene downstream products increased 0.4% from the previous period [2]. - As of August 13th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 444,500 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period; as of August 15th, the polyethylene social inventory was 556,500 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous period [2].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-20 逼近下边沿，操作建议，逢低布局多单 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 51875 | -385 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2410 | 10 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 150086 | 12109 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 43485 | -150 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Due to downstream caution and production - sales pressure, procurement may be cautious, and the finished product inventory is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 35,691, down 89; the 9 - 10 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions has decreased to varying degrees, with a maximum decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,100 tons, up 4,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points; the port inventory is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons; the daily start - up rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points; the production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan; the social inventory is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2]. - The weekly start - up rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of full - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.75 million, up 130,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million, up 1.74 million; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In July 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -27 期货收盘价(1月交割连续):线型低密度聚 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) -21 期货收盘价(9月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | 7307 7291 | 7307 7268 | -27 -24 | | | 期货收盘价(5月交割连续):线型低密度聚 乙烯(日,元/吨) | | | | | | 乙烯(日,元/吨) 成交量(日,手) 乙烯(日,元/吨) -15448 持仓量(日,手) | 195031 | 360140 | 18230 | | | 9-1价差 3 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -39 | 304188 | -6846 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) -2170 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 332638 | -28450 | -4676 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) -12.61 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda main contract switched to the 01 contract. SH2601 fell 1.85% to close at 2,598 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina industry's profit is considerable and there is no planned production cut. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching but the rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 64,074 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 21,262 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,610 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 22 lots; the main contract trading volume was 210,358 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 109,318 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,694 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 31 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 250.5 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was -250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 437,800 tons (wet tons), with a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina start-up rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber start-up rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance devices in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Trade war uncertainties remain, demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates significantly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC主力收盘价为1370.300，较前值下降11.1；EC次主力收盘价为1775，较前值下降7.3 [1]. - EC2510 - EC2512价差为 -404.70，较前值上升11.90；EC2510 - EC2602价差为 -165.10，较前值下降0.30 [1]. - EC合约基差为809.87，较前值下降52.51 [1]. - EC主力持仓量为52799手，较前值下降383手 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS（欧线）（周）为2180.17，较前值下降55.31，环比下降2.5%；SCFIS（美西线）（周）为1106.29，较前值下降24.15 [1]. - SCFI（综合指数）（周）为1460.19，较前值下降29.49；集装箱船运力为1227.97万标准箱，较前值下降0.04 [1]. - CCFI（综合指数）（周）为1193.34，较前值下降7.39；CCFI（欧线）（周）为1790.47，较前值下降8.58 [1]. - 波罗的海干散货指数（日）为2044.00，较前值下降22.00；巴拿马型运费指数（日）为1622.00，较前值上升8.00 [1]. - 平均租船价格（巴拿马型船）为13956.00，较前值下降44.00；平均租船价格（好望角型船）为25535.00，较前值上升662.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - 国务院总理李强强调提升宏观政策效能，稳定市场预期，激发消费潜力，扩大有效投资，巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势 [1]. - 全球金融市场关注杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，野村、美银、大摩对美联储主席鲍威尔讲话有不同预期 [1]. - 面对特朗普威胁对印商品加征50%关税，印度总理莫迪拟进行商品及服务税改革 [1]. - 德国政府发言人表示美国需降低对欧汽车关税才能敲定贸易协定书面文本 [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - 8月20日09:00公布中国至8月20日一年期贷款市场报价利率 [1]. - 8月20日14:00公布德国7月PPI月率、英国7月CPI月率、英国7月零售物价指数月率 [1]. - 8月20日17:00公布欧元区7月CPI年率终值 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5914, down 3.21%. For the spot market, Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5850, down 50 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was affected by position limits. The production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and after the recent price recovery, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On August 19, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5678, down 3.53%. For the spot market, Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5560, down 50 yuan/ton. After the profit improvement, the production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and the inventory has also increased. The operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,842.00 yuan/ton, down 184.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,678.00 yuan/ton, down 202.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume was 601,464.00 lots, up 10,775.00 lots; SF futures contract holding volume was 467,055.00 lots, up 21,035.00 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding was - 83,020.00 lots, down 1,901.00 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net holding was - 36,662.00 lots, down 12,602.00 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 72.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 152.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 73,191.00 pieces, down 469.00 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 20,766.00 pieces, up 50.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,850.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,640.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,900.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,900.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average was 5,870.00 yuan/ton, up 37.00 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 118.00 yuan/ton, up 152.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis was 8.00 yuan/ton, up 134.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 34.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%) in the northwest was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material) in Shenmu was 680.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 446.60 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.75%, up 2.32%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.18%, up 1.86% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 207,060.00 tons, up 11,235.00 tons; Ferrosilicon supply was 112,900.00 tons, up 3,800.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 158,800.00 tons, down 2,700.00 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 65,180.00 tons, down 6,590.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 125,382.00 tons, up 182.00 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand was 20,313.96 tons, up 47.66 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.57%, down 0.20%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - Crude steel production was 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The current flood season is still ongoing, and there may be extreme emergencies. There may be typhoon formation by the end of August [2]. - On August 18, mainstream coking enterprises raised the coke price for the seventh time, with the tamping wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and the tamping dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on August 19 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized further enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, expanding effective investment, and promoting private investment [2]. - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association believes that the steel industry achieved good results in the first half of the year, with the fundamental reason being the significant reduction in crude steel production [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to remain flat, while demand gradually increases. Considering the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,825 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,971 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 92,719 lots, down 816 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 951 lots, up 1,142 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 61,353 tons, down 872 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 260,475 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 44 US dollars/ton, down 0.76 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.53 tons, up 0.15 tons [3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [3] - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,020.01 points, up 31.2 points; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3] 3.6 Industry News - There are multiple events including the US - Ukraine - EU White House meeting, the decline of the US homebuilder confidence index, Trump's plan to sign an executive order to abolish mail - in ballots, and Hamas's agreement to a new Gaza cease - fire proposal [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production decision of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted, and the output of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - battery field. Although approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual demand has not yet shown explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an improvement in overall demand. The lead - battery industry is approaching the peak season, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [3]

整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。今日工业硅整体收跌，对于工业硅来说，目前底 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-19 部成本支撑迹象明显，但顶部库存压力依旧，操作上建议,若后期跌破8000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多 免责声明 单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8625 | 20 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286605 | ...