Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face involves measures to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, foster service consumption, and increase effective investment. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the zinc ore processing fee is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth is accelerating. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall transaction is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price supports the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings, breaking below the MA60, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The three - month zinc quotation on the LME is 2,777 US dollars/ton, down 19.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 214,599 lots, up 2,376 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 3,632 lots, down 10,163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,538 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 76,803 tons (weekly), up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 75,850 tons, down 475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.65 US dollars/ton, down 3.43 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,990 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore output of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 114,900 tons (weekly), up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 5.36% (daily), down 2.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.12% (daily), up 0.09 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Macro - face: Measures should be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase effective investment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report indicates that the recent slight decline in tin prices is mostly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. LME inventories continue to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai tin is 40 yuan higher. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,702 dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 21,004 hands, down 1,092 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 713 hands. The total inventory of LME tin is 1,655 tons, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange (weekly) is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 145 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange (daily) are 7,513 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,110 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 1,890 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 89 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. Industry News - Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. He also mentioned measures to strengthen the domestic large - scale cycle, stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and promote the construction of a unified national market. There are also measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In July, the increase in production was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, since it has entered the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid - demand production and procurement, and the orders are just passable. Recently, the tin price has slightly declined, mainly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The LME inventory continues to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20, 2025, to introduce the preparations for the military parade. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.62%, at a relatively high level; inventory was stable, and apparent demand rebounded. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, with the apparent demand returning to 3.1 million tons. There is a game between short - term tariff disturbances and pre - parade production restrictions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,184,978 lots, down 17,753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 90,690 lots, down 2,637 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 13 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,166 tons, up 880 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 290 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 74 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, down 12 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 390,500 tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.0978 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.1252 million tons, down 28,400 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1559 million tons, up 7,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.62%, up 0.18 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 799,800 tons, up 21,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.7749 million tons, down 12,600 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 to September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%. In addition, some steel mills received oral notices that from August 31 to September 3, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40%. The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the output of medium - thick wide steel strips in China was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,194.5, down 1.89%. The market sentiment declined due to trading volume restrictions. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months with a moderately high inventory. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 19, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,708.5, down 0.96%. The spot market started the seventh round of price increase. Macroscopically, the flood - control situation is still severe. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory rebounded, and the hot metal output was at a high level. The coking coal total inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价: 1,194.50 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价: 1,708.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量: 931,492.00 hands, down 9,578.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量: 49,890.00 hands, down 1,555.00 hands [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓: - 116,069.00 hands, up 2,014.00 hands; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓: - 6,039.00 hands, down 193.00 hands [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差: 143.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan; J1 - 9月合约价差: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - 焦煤仓单: 0.00; 焦炭仓单: 820.00 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤: 954.00 yuan/ton, down 42.00 yuan; 唐山一级冶金焦: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货 (CFR): 147.00 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; 日照港准一级冶金焦: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤: 1,500.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; 天津港一级冶金焦: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤: 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; 天津港准一级冶金焦: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约基差: 11.50 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan [2]. - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价: 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM主力合约基差: 105.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量: 26.40 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; 314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存: 297.00 million tons, up 8.90 million tons [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率: 0.37%, unchanged; 原煤产量: 38,098.70 million tons, down 4,008.70 million tons [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量: 3,561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; 523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量: 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存: 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; 焦炭18个港口库存: 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存: 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; 独立焦企全样本焦炭库存: 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存: 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; 全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存: 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数: 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; 247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数: 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量: 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; 焦炭及半焦炭出口量: 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - 炼焦煤产量: 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; 独立焦企产能利用率: 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况: 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; 焦炭产量: 4,185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率: 83.57%, down 0.20%; 247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率: 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - 粗钢产量: 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The flood - control situation is still severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August [2]. - On August 18, mainstream coking enterprises proposed the seventh round of coke price increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 19 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real - estate market [2]. - The steel industry achieved good results in the first half of the year, with the significant decline in crude steel output being the fundamental reason for profit improvement [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply in the market is relatively loose in August as the slaughter plan of the breeding segment increases month - on - month. However, some farms may be willing to hold prices as the price drops, and the widening price difference between fat and lean pigs provides conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered, with the slaughterhouse operating rate rising moderately. It is expected that the demand will improve with the start of school in late August and the subsequent Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. Overall, the pressure on slaughter in August is high, and the weak adjustment of the spot price has dragged down the main contract of live pigs. But due to policy guidance, the long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease marginally, and the expected improvement in demand due to the start of school limits the decline space of live pig futures prices, with the market mainly in a volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 67,934 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,259 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,897 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 821 lots [2]. Spot Price - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 13,600 yuan/ton, 13,400 yuan/ton, and 14,900 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with a month - on - month increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads. The year - on - year CPI is 0%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,391.37 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.55 yuan/ton; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 911.33, with a decrease of 6.6. The monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,756,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 157.05 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.91 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 28.85 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28 yuan/head. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 2100,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 470.76 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 12.94 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On August 19, 2025, according to the sample data of key breeding enterprises of Shanghai Ganglian, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 258,700 heads, a 5.68% decrease from the previous day. The live pig 2511 contract closed up 0.18% on Tuesday [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 63 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -34 | -11 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 213033 | 29238 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31466 | -7339 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3573 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -87 | -63 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 46.4 | -1.9 企业库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face downward pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels [2]. - For glass, the current price is still relatively high. If it falls to around 1100 yuan, there may be a rebound opportunity if there is an interest rate cut. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1358 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1196 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position is 1428848 hands, up 29928 hands; glass main contract position is 1196462 hands, up 81442 hands [2]. - Soda ash 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 113 yuan, up 1 yuan; glass 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 176 yuan, up 6 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 106 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is - 112 yuan, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large plate price is 1084 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass large plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, aiming to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real - estate market [2]. - In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost supports the offer price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization, but the general order performance will limit the increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,840 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,780, with a week - on - week increase of 18,326. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 66.6 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.42 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 825 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 570.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or + 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].