Rui Da Qi Huo
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瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251119
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 09:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a focus on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts is -15 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,990.5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 202,518 lots, a decrease of 8,128 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 6,335 lots, an increase of 639 lots. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,892 tons, an increase of 684 tons; the LME inventory is 43,525 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 129.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.79 US dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -27,800 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, an increase of 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, a decrease of 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, an increase of 2,166.92 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, an increase of 34.3534 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, an increase of 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 11.46%, an increase of 1.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 9.28%, a decrease of 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued claims was 1.957 million, slightly up from the previous week's 1.947 million. - Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia [3]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The import of zinc ore has increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has been lowered, and the sulfuric acid price has fallen, significantly squeezing smelter profits, with some smelters incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" was weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the market atmosphere has warmed up, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The de - stocking of LME zinc has slowed down, and the spot premium is at a high level. - Technically, the open interest has decreased while the price has fallen, weakening the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 [3].
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251119
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 09:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market showed a significant increase today, and it remains in a short - term bullish trend, with attention on the upper pressure level of 9600 [2] - From the fundamental perspective of industrial silicon, the supply side will shrink next week as some enterprises in Southwest China plan to cut production due to the approaching dry season and expected sharp rise in electricity prices; the demand side varies in different downstream fields, with potential for increased demand in the organic silicon segment, a stable demand trend in the polysilicon segment, and limited pulling effect on industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy segment [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9390 yuan/ton, up 410; the position of the main contract was 306669 lots, up 58650; the net position of the top 20 was - 72756 lots, down 23271; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43412 lots, up 10; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 0, down 20 [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 60 yuan/ton, down 410; the spot price of DMC was 13000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402800 tons, up 36000; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.2 tons, up 1; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, up 602.27; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70232.72 tons, down 6409.29 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 4.49 tons, up 0.07; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23495.34 tons, down 5568.37; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, up 2.92; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 177.6 tons, up 14.1; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23495.34 tons, down 5568.37 [2] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting. The industry aims to cut the operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price target of organic silicon DMC to 13500 yuan/ton within half a month [2]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20251119
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 09:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, and demand growth also faces certain resistance. With the expected continued accumulation of inventory, the short - term decline of Shanghai lead has slowed down. Attention should be focused on the 16980 pressure level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME was 2,027 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 87,047 lots, down 8,288 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,809 lots, down 1,331 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, down 1,325 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, down 11.33 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%. The monthly output of recycled lead was 18,300 tons, down 67,500 tons; the weekly output of primary lead was 38,700 tons, up 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 9,898.21 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45.696 million units, down 3.984 million units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,119.32 points, down 49.84 points; the monthly automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Some waste lead - acid battery recycling enterprises in East China reported a continuous decrease in battery scrap volume this week. Affected by the continuous decline in lead prices, some smelters have started to lower their quotes, which has intensified the concerns of some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises. To avoid the risk of continuous price decline of waste lead - acid batteries, recycling enterprises have become more active in shipping, which may accelerate the short - term price loosening of waste lead - acid batteries. On the supply side, the shortage of domestic lead concentrate supply for primary lead continues, and the quotes in the imported ore market are scarce. Some smelters have to purchase low - silver lead ore to maintain production. The subsequent supply of primary lead is expected to have limited growth. For recycled lead, the production willingness of recycled lead enterprises is strong this week. At the current profit level, the output of recycled lead is still expected to increase. Major smelters in Anhui are gradually resuming production and steadily increasing production, and are expected to continue to rise. Production in Henan and Jiangsu is stable, and the operating rate in Inner Mongolia has significantly increased due to tight lead ingot supply and sufficient orders. Currently, the raw material supply is stable and enterprise inventories are abundant, so the overall operating rate is expected to increase again. In addition, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the supply in the hands of recyclers is scarce, and stores generally have a strong sentiment of holding back sales in anticipation of price increases [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In November, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakened, and some manufacturers reduced their monthly production schedules, which restricted the recovery of the operating rate. However, as the impact of early - month production cuts further subsides, the subsequent operating level will continue to recover steadily. Some leading battery enterprises have good order conditions, focus on expanding energy - storage business, and increase the production capacity of lead - carbon cells, which will further increase the demand for lead. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots remains high, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will inhibit demand growth to a certain extent. This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot shortage began to ease. With the resumption of production by smelting enterprises and the increase in imports due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the active start - up of recycled lead, the lead inventory is still expected to accumulate [2]
瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the yields of most active treasury bonds declined. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.52%. Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a mixed performance, with some weakening and some improving. Overseas, the US government averted a shutdown, but the employment market showed downward risks, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December dropped significantly. The economy in Q4 is expected to continue a weak recovery. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum, interest rates may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.06% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 1244, 3133, 2388, and 1158 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 spreads decreased by 0.01, 0.06, 0.01, and 0.01 respectively. T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 spreads increased by 0.00 and 0.01 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 10869, 8352, 2955, and 6927 respectively. T top 20 net short positions increased by 1874, TF top 20 net short positions decreased by 1152, TS top 20 net short positions decreased by 34, and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 683 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD Bonds - The net prices of multiple CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB up 0.0041, 220019.IB up 0.0043, etc. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of 1 - year bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year and 7 - year and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.55bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and 5 - year bonds increased by 0.20bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.66bp, 1.70bp, 3.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively. Silver - pledged 14 - day decreased by 3.00bp, and Shibor 14 - day remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4075 billion, the maturity scale was 4038 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. From January to October, national fiscal revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure increased by 2%. In October, the bank settlement - sale surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - On November 20 at 3:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. On November 20, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report [3]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory Overseas vessel arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, downstream stocking willingness is low, and new orders are scarce The demand side shows that most semi - steel tire enterprises' device operations are stable with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization, while individual full - steel tire enterprises have maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, which is expected to decline further The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12345 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 in both contracts also have corresponding changes, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increase by 7770 tons to 115900 tons, while the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 49695 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, and mixed rubber from Thailand and Malaysia, have increased by 50 yuan/ton The prices of butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical are 10700 yuan/ton and 10500 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 200 yuan/ton and the latter remaining unchanged The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products, as well as the basis of 20 - number rubber, also have corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, have different changes The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 are 149.6 dollars/ton and - 5.4 dollars/ton respectively, with increases of 19 dollars/ton and 18 dollars/ton The monthly import volumes of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber are 12.26 million tons and 31.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 64.5% and 73.68% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.96 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.01 percentage points The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days and 45.36 days respectively, with increases of 0.35 days and 0.31 days The monthly production volumes of full - steel and semi - steel tires are 13.14 million pieces and 60.25 million pieces respectively, with increases of 110,000 pieces and 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying are 17.46% and 18.43% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.05 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.07 percentage points The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 20.57%, with increases of 0.1 and 0.11 percentage points respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 452,600 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous period The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons As of November 13, the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises are 72.99% and 64.29% respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to have a volatile trend. The supply side continues to exert pressure, while the domestic demand shows marginal improvement [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,680 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 80,695 hands, up 3,624 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 32 hands, down 134 hands [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest is 564,995 hands, down 6,347 hands; cotton yarn main - contract open interest is 21,554 hands, down 657 hands [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,386 sheets, down 10 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 28 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,844 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,883 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,099 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,362 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,751 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The import cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, down 46,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 100 million meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 5.09%, down 10.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 5.16%, down 10.01% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.54%, down 1.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.23%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of the week of November 14, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days is 27 days [2]. - ICE cotton futures hit an eight - month low on Monday. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.28 cents, or 0.43%, at 64.53 cents per pound [2]. Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: New cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and the acquisition is nearly over. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. With the release of import quotas, the shipment of high - grade new cotton from Brazil has accelerated, and the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments [2]. - Demand side: In October, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double - decline trend in year - on - year and month - on - month terms, with a more significant decline in clothing exports. However, there are signs of marginal improvement in domestic retail demand [2].
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:17
| 11/20 9:00 中国11月1年期、5年期LPR | | | --- | --- | | 11/20 21:30 美国9月非农就业数据、失业率、劳动参与率 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! | 备注:IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM:中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | | | 研究员: 廖宏斌 | 股指期货全景日报 2025/11/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约(2512) | 最新 4555.0 | 环比 数据指标 -18.8↓ IF次主力合约(2511) | 最新 4569.6 | 环比 -20.0↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约(2512) | 2997.6 | -6.8↓ IH次主力合约(2511) | 3003.6 | -5.0↓ | | | IC主力合约(2512) | 7079.8 | -61.0↓ IC次主力合约(2511) | 7152.8 | -62.4↓ | | | IM主力合约(2512) | 7351.8 ...
瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:09
研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1217174 | -46346↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -68,884 | -9508↓ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -9 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:09
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,680.00 | -112.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,474.00 | -92.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 666,646.00 | +71176.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 398,527.00 | +34144.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -21,898.00 | +31288.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓(日,手) | -18,552.00 | +17276.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 66.00 | -2.00↓ SF5-1月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | -40.00↓ | | | SM 仓单(日,张) | 19,863.00 | 0.00 SF 仓单(日,张) | 8,443.00 | 0.00 | | | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 (日,元/吨 ...