Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with large price fluctuations and an overall positive outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 87,540 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 149,845 hands, up 13,913 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 414,097 hands, down 7,009 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,555 hands/ton, up 70 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,840 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 990 US dollars/ton, up 79 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4%; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.53 million yuan/ton, up 0.03 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1%; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.33%, up 0.69%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.74%, up 0.36% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 148,147 contracts, down 3,229 contracts; the total put position is 138,973 contracts, up 16,351 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 93.81%, up 12.8026%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang: Consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. Further enhance the implementation effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluate policy implementation, respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations. Strengthen the domestic big cycle. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of the year, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses, and the problem of tight liquidity spread across the entire circulation industry. In 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat trend, but the growth expectation is lower than that at the end of last year. - TrendForce: In the second quarter, global new - energy vehicle (NEV) sales, including battery - electric vehicles (BEV), plug - in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and hydrogen - fuel - cell vehicles, reached 4.868 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Including hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), EV sales in the second quarter reached 6.456 million, accounting for 29% of global vehicle sales [2] Viewpoint Summary - The put - call ratio of option positions is 93.81%, up 12.8026% compared with the previous period. The call position in the option market dominates, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2] Operation Suggestion - Conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue accumulating due to high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The olefin industry's operating rate is expected to increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin plant to full - load operation. It is recommended to wait and see for the MA2601 contract, paying attention to the support level around 2370 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2391 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 106 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 686,276 lots, an increase of 20,648 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 117,839 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,766, a decrease of 202 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2075 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 121 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 261 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 63 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.91 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 68.7 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons; in South China ports, it is 33.48 tons, an increase of 5.13 tons. The methanol import profit is 41.49 yuan/ton, down 8.38 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 295,600 tons, an increase of 1900 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, an increase of 0.79% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, an increase of 0.43%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, an increase of 1.82%; the acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, an increase of 1.82%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23%; the olefin operating rate is 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 957 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, down 1.82%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.41%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.41%, an increase of 2.3% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 13, the total methanol port inventory in China was 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. The sample production enterprise inventory was 29.56 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons, a 0.64% increase; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons, an 8.90% decrease. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a 0.41% decrease [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather persists, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, precipitation disrupts the tapping operations, resulting in limited fresh latex output. Local rubber processing plants face difficulties in raw material procurement [2]. - The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports continues to decline, with bonded warehouses accumulating inventory and general trade warehouses showing further de - stocking. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and most are focused on inventory digestion [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at full - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization as maintenance - affected enterprises resume work, but overall orders are average, and production control by enterprises will continue to limit the increase [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,875 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 134,968 lots, up 1,513 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,095 lots, down 399 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,237 lots, down 1,112 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,844 lots, up 1,087 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,570 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,838 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 148 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.28 Thai baht/kg, down 1.87 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 49.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.9%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.4%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.36%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 17 - 23, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red - marked areas with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red - marked areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 616,700 tons, down 3,100 tons or 0.50% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 76,900 tons, up 2.12%, and the general trade inventory is 539,800 tons, down 0.87% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall view is to maintain a bullish stance. Although the domestic oil mill operation rate is relatively high and soybean meal is in a state of inventory accumulation, which suppresses the price of the meal market, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is also recommended to participate from a bullish perspective. In the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain the market price. But the low oil mill operation rate reduces the output pressure, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply - side pressure, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active - contract closing price is 9850 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; ICE rapeseed's is 652.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and domestic rapeseed's is 4919 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread is 99 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Main - contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main - contract position is 288,604 lots, down 2034 lots; rapeseed meal's is 437,984 lots, up 3654 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil's is 2633 lots, down 175 lots; rapeseed meal's is 2024 lots, up 7061 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil's is 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal's is 8721 sheets, down 1100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,030 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9710 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil's average price is 10,095 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - Import cost: The import cost of rapeseed is 8220.57 yuan/ton, down 86.21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main - contract basis is 204 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price spread is 460 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production forecasts: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; domestic rapeseed annual production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity is 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import quantity is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.94%, down 4.9 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.45 tons, down 0.55 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons, down 0.65 tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.2 tons, down 0.72 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons, up 0.68 tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5 tons, down 0.5 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.8 tons, up 0.8 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 is 3.76 tons, up 0.29 tons; rapeseed meal's is 3.24 tons, up 0.52 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on August 18, trading within the previous week's range. Tight supply limited the decline. The most actively traded November contract closed down 9.20 Canadian dollars at 651.70 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract closed down 9.40 Canadian dollars at 663.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which is overall bullish. However, the good condition of US soybeans restrains the market price, and the market is waiting for the results of ProFarmer's inspection of Midwest crops [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand. Spot supplies are relatively loose, and alumina inventory may accumulate slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,545 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of alumina is 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy is 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 234,699 hands (up 61,704 hands), 192,727 hands (up 15,152 hands), and 7,912 hands (down 76 hands) respectively [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory is 479,525 tons, up 2,940 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory is 120,653 tons, up 7,039 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 54.70 million tons, up 2.10 million tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is 14,621 hands, up 363 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.94, up 0.02; the historical volatility of 20 - day and 40 - day Shanghai Aluminum is 5.85% (down 0.10%) and 8.31% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Net A00 aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,350 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,490 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 255 yuan/ton, down 455 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 45 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the basis of alumina is 90 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton (unchanged); the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 0.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.84 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons; the import is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export is 23.00 million tons, up 6.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remains unchanged; China's import and export of aluminum scrap and waste are 155,616.27 tons (down 4,084.65 tons) and 64.33 tons (down 8.11 tons) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import and export of primary aluminum are 192,314.50 tons (down 30,781.00 tons) and 19,570.72 tons (down 12,523.35 tons) respectively; the total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production is 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, up 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the built - in production capacity is 126.00 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese government emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation, stimulating consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [2]. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [2]. - Economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0% [2]. - Chinese automobile dealers suffered losses in the first half of the year, and their expectations for growth in 2025 are lower than at the end of last year [2]. - China's urbanization is shifting to a stable development stage, and urban renewal is important for the real estate market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract continued to decline. Macroscopically, Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations while boosting effective investment. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly. High - temperature and rainy weather affected demand, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand declined. Overall, rebar demand was weak in the off - season, and tariff disturbances affected market sentiment again, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall transactions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. The operation suggestion was to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,126.00 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position was 1,608,694 lots, down 1,199 lots - RB contract's top 20 net position was - 108,548 lots, up 12,257 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 135,449 tons, up 15,137 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 290 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,405 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan - The RB main contract basis was 194.00 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764.00 yuan/wet ton, down 12.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,819.27 million tons, up 107.00 million tons; the sample coking plant's coke inventory was 39.05 million tons, down 5.31 million tons - The sample steel mill's coke inventory was 609.78 million tons, down 9.52 million tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 112.52 million tons, down 2.84 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% - The sample steel mill's rebar output was 220.45 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the sample steel mill's rebar capacity utilization rate was 48.33%, down 0.16% - The sample steel mill's rebar inventory was 172.26 million tons, up 4.06 million tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 414.93 million tons, up 26.45 million tons - The independent electric arc furnace steel mill's operating rate was 71.88%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons - China's rebar monthly output was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons; the steel net export volume was 939.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40% - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters - The commercial housing unsold area was 40,536.00 million square meters, up 285.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% - In July 2025, China's rebar output was 1,518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 11,338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the I2601 contract showed weak consolidation. Tariff disturbances affected market sentiment, causing the black - series to decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The recommended operation is to short on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 771.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume is 449,577 hands, up 674 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 4,627 hands, up 393 hands [2]. - The DCE warehouse receipt of I is 2,500.00 hands, down 100.00 hands [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 101.1 dollars/ton, down 0.33 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 833 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 823 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 696 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 52 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 101.05 dollars/ton, down 0.75 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.40, up 0.06 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 830 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,406.60 million tons, up 359.90 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,703.10 million tons, up 131.50 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,381.57 million tons, up 114.30 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,136.40 million tons, up 123.06 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 23.00 days, up 5 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 41.18 million tons, up 2.34 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 64.98%, up 3.02% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 34.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons; the BDI index is 2,022.00, down 22.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.53 dollars/ton, down 0.33 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.78 dollars/ton, down 0.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.46%, down 1.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 19.48%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 18.70%, down 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.59%, up 0.78% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3406.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 359.9 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2756.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.7 million tons [2]. - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2703.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 131.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2476.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 94.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1252.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.5 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality, with the overall shipment speed slowing down. The supply of paper - bag Gala apples in the western region is increasing, and high - quality fruits are sold at high prices. Overall, the low spot inventory strongly supports prices, but as the listing volume of Gala apples gradually increases in the future, it may restrain the price increase rhythm. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 83,632 hands, an increase of 475 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 1200, a decrease of 3533; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above) is 4 yuan/jin; in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commodity) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 168.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is not given a change value [2] Industry Situation - The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 9.69 million tons, a decrease of 7.38 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 46.01%, a decrease of 0.03%; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.02%, no change; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars, a decrease of 212,886 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars, a decrease of 212886 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the weekly banana wholesale price is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg; the weekly watermelon wholesale price is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.6 vehicles, a decrease of 0.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 1.4 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 15 vehicles, a decrease of 1 vehicle [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 18.98%, an increase of 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 18.98%, an increase of 0.39% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Currently, the laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the newly opened production pressure of the laying hens supplemented in the early stage is relatively large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, leading to sluggish demand. The willingness of breeding enterprises to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end remains in a loss state. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3065 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 39282 hands. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of egg futures is 18 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 6 yuan. The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 411040 hands, an increase of 29360 hands. The number of registered egg warehouse receipts is 0 hands [2]. 现货 Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The basis (spot - futures) is 134 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 48 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.25 yuan. The national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.05 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The average age of culled hens nationwide is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7605 tons, an increase of 76 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.80 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and weak market sentiment lead to a weak trend in the corn market, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation. The market shows a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 2563 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures holdings of active contracts: 29682 hands for yellow corn, 925944 hands for corn starch; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 93342 hands for corn starch and - 22833 hands for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 113481 hands for yellow corn, 7450 hands for corn starch [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 321 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 0.75 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions are 406.5 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 25206 (weekly) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2391.37 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.47 yuan/ton, up 1.42 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 35.12 million tons, down 0.25 million tons [2]. - The predicted yields of corn in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 75.1 million tons, down 14.5 million tons; deep - processing corn inventories are 340.2 million tons, down 24.1 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories at northern ports are 247 million tons, down 22 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 61 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing consumption of corn is 114.06 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.9%, up 2.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 3.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 1.73% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.64% [2]. Industry News - The Midwest crop inspection activity of the US Professional Farmers (ProFarmer) organization reported crop growth problems on the first day, including soil cracking and lack of surface soil moisture [2]. - In July 2025, China's corn imports were 6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons (62.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 103 million tons (94.9%) [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the estimated sown area of US corn in the 2025/26 season is increased from 95.2 million acres in July to 97.3 million acres, and the yield per acre is increased from 181 bushels/acre to 188.8 bushels/acre [2].