免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1159.00 | -51.00↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1649.50 | -60.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 934274.00 | +21614.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 48873.00 | +1305.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -128978.00 | -32057.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -2488.00 | +434.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 73.00 | ...

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1020 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10505 | 50 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72021 | -1785 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -35 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10500 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the shutdown and maintenance of plants at Hengli Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Zhongsha Petrochemical had a limited impact on the number of days. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's Line 3 restarted, and the PE production and capacity utilization rate increased month-on-month. The downstream agricultural film operating rate remained stable, the packaging film operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall operating rate of PE downstream decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventories accumulated significantly, social inventories decreased slightly, and total inventories accumulated. The cost of oil-based production decreased slightly, the cost of coal-based production increased slightly, and the losses of both oil-based and coal-based processes deepened. [2] - This week, Zhongying Petrochemical's plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhongsha Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to restart. PE production and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little month-on-month. In November, there is less new planned maintenance capacity for PE, and at the same time, two new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical continue to increase production, resulting in high supply pressure. [2] - The demand for northern greenhouse films is gradually declining, while the demand for southern greenhouse films still provides some support. Orders and operating rates for agricultural films are expected to fluctuate slightly; orders for packaging films are marginally weakening, and demand follow-up is limited. [2] - In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil is expected to continue. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela may intensify, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting international oil prices. In the short term, L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 6750 - 6950. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts were 6785 yuan/ton, 6852 yuan/ton, and 6906 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 58 yuan, 50 yuan, and 43 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 260,592 lots, an increase of 53,772 lots; the open interest was 548,344 lots, an increase of 6,049 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was -67, a decrease of 8; the long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 473,161 lots, an increase of 17,538 lots; the short positions were 584,549 lots, an increase of 20,653 lots; the net long positions were -111,388 lots, a decrease of 3,115 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6932.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.83 yuan; in East China, it was 7115.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33 yuan. [2] - The basis was 147.17, an increase of 40.17. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.96 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.13 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 736 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.41%, 31.67%, and 49.96% respectively. The operating rate of packaging film decreased by 0.37 percentage points, while the others remained unchanged. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.89%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.68%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.05%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, China's total polyethylene production was 673,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared to the previous period. [2] - From November 7th to 13th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films remained the same as before, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.4%. [2] - As of November 12th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.96%; as of November 7th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 500,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86%. [2] - From November 8th to 14th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.98 to 7256 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 35.43 yuan/ton to - 405.86 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.43% to 7051 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 211.57 yuan/ton to - 182.57 yuan/ton. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with only sporadic restocking. Affected by environmental protection factors, the compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased slightly, and the operating load is expected to increase slowly. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. [2] - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprise inventories rebounded. Considering large pending orders, enterprises are actively shipping, and short - term enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1680. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1662 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton (increased by 1), the main contract position is 250907 lots (decreased by 3842), the top 20 net position is - 34881, and the exchange warehouse receipts are 7183 (unchanged). [2] 现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui remained unchanged. The main contract basis is - 52 yuan/ton (increased by 20). FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 367.5 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively. [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 8.2 million tons (increased by 0.3 million tons, a 3.8% increase), and enterprise inventory is 148.36 million tons (decreased by 9.45 million tons, a 5.99% decrease). The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.08% (increased by 1.37%), the daily production is 196700 tons (increased by 13200 tons), the export volume is 137 million tons (increased by 57), and the monthly output is 5738670 tons (decreased by 190010 tons). [2] 下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 30.32% (decreased by 0.72%), the melamine operating rate is 57.48% (increased by 4.28%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 55 yuan/ton (decreased by 28), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 133 yuan/ton (decreased by 32). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 million tons (decreased by 65.15 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 29200 tons (increased by 2200 tons). [2] 行业消息 - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 million tons, a 5.99% decrease from last week. As of November 13, the port sample inventory was 8.2 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week. The production of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 1.65% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.37%. [2] 提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and operating rate on Thursday. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase week - on - week. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to cut production due to environmental control expectations in the north and low production profits, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, but the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure. The current main basis is still high, and the market's weak supply - demand expectation needs to be verified. Attention should be paid to whether there is a centralized production cut plan for alumina in December. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 149,936 lots, down 717 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,632 lots, up 6338 lots; the main contract trading volume is 273,587 lots, down 118,158 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2421 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis is 152 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 215 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the utilization rate of China's caustic soda production capacity decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% to 85.37%; from November 7th to 13th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 89.50%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 402,200 tons, down 3.04% week - on - week. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down week - on - week [2]

免责声明 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,090.00 | -7↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1655469 | -74279↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -69457 | -21979↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -49 | +1↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 108272 | -3655↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 196 | -9↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | 0.00 | | | 广州 H ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The national apple cold storage inventory as of November 13, 2025, is 764.24 million tons, 90.54 million tons lower than the same period last year. The storage ratio in Shandong has increased by 10.24% week - on - week, and in Shaanxi by 2.63%. The ground trading in Shandong is ending, while the storage is in full swing. In Shaanxi, storage and shipment are happening simultaneously, with storage almost finished. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9433 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 138008 hands (down 1405 hands), and the net long position of the top 20 futures is 9377 hands (up 1068 hands) [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin (up 0.3 yuan/jin), 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.8 yuan/jin (up 0.3 yuan/jin) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, the average wholesale price of apples is 9.49 yuan/kg (up 0.03 yuan/kg), and that of Fuji apples is 9.12 yuan/kg (up 0.08 yuan/kg). The total national apple cold storage inventory is 65.82 million tons, the storage ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.6 and 0.51 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars (up 248684.5 million US dollars) [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year export amount of apples is - 8.5%, and the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.66 yuan/kg (down 0.01 yuan/kg), 5.36 yuan/kg (up 0.18 yuan/kg), and 5.39 yuan/kg (down 0.09 yuan/kg) respectively. The average daily early - morning arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 12.2 (unchanged), 16 (down 1), and 23.8 (down 0.2) respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are both 26.07% [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, the inventory Fuji trading is mainly for high - quality and small fruits, with stable prices. In Shandong, the ground trading is in the later stage, and the trading of small inventory fruits has started with acceptable prices. The storage of new - season late - maturing Fuji is almost finished, and the remaining inventory is mainly in Shandong Qixia [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of styrene is expected to maintain an upward trend, and there is an incremental expectation on the demand side, but the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability. The spot tight - balance state is expected to continue, slowly consuming the high inventory pressure. The international oil price has mixed long and short factors. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals have no improvement signs, and the basis of the December contract is in the neutral range. Technically, EB2512 should pay attention to the pressure around 6560 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the trading volume was 263,018 lots, a decrease of 99,891 lots; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 386,746 lots, a decrease of 9,200 lots; the net long - position volume was - 47,224 lots, an increase of 3,121 lots; the short - position volume was 433,970 lots, a decrease of 12,321 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,560 lots, a decrease of 229 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 184,040 lots, a decrease of 43,582 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 803 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 813 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North and East China were 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6690 yuan/ton (an increase of 45 yuan), 6485 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan) and 6535 yuan/ton (an increase of 35 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 736 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), CIF Northwest Europe was 645 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1 dollar), and FD US Gulf was 457 dollars/ton (a decrease of 6 dollars). The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 664.67 dollars/ton (unchanged), the FOB price in the US Gulf was 0 cents/gallon, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 693 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the market prices in South, East and North China were 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5420 yuan/ton (an increase of 15 yuan) and 5235 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene production from November 7th to 13th was 344,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.45%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The national styrene inventory was 189,431 tons, an increase of 9,399 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 148,300 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 87,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.63% (a decrease of 2.32%), 71.8% (an increase of 0.2%), 55.4% (an increase of 1.9%), 36% (unchanged) and 74.76% (an increase of 2.52%) respectively. From November 7th to 13th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants increased by 3.45% month - on - month to 344,400 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 69.25%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons. As of November 13th, the styrene plant inventory increased by 5.22% week - on - week to 189,400 tons; as of November 17th, the East China port inventory decreased by 15.16% week - on - week to 148,300 tons; as of November 10th, the South China port inventory decreased by 24.73% week - on - week to 21,000 tons [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of November 12th, the non - integrated profit was - 459 yuan/ton; as of November 13th, the styrene integrated profit was 15.31 yuan/ton. The inventories in East China and Hainan ports maintained a destocking trend, but the visible inventory was still high. The non - integrated profit was deeply in the red, and the integrated profit recovered to a small profit level. There are no new shutdown devices in the short term, and a device in East China is expected to restart this week, so the styrene supply is expected to continue to rise. The maintenance devices of downstream EPS, PS and ABS have resumed operation, and the newly put - into - production devices have increased production, so there is an incremental expectation on the demand side. However, the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 792.00 | +3.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 471,291 | -10108↓ | | 期货市场 | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 34.5 | +2.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16176 | +10884↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 800.00 | -100.0 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-18 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3185 | -44 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -23557 | -6716 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -288 | -18 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 214974 ...