1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to potential复产 of some bases and release of new production capacity of leading companies in the second half of the year, while short - term demand is weak as June's PV new installation decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Therefore, the polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend due to cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. Industrial silicon demand is steadily declining with supply also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state. The current advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 137,977 lots, up 2,460 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,420 yuan, down 130 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43,635 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is - 5,280 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,7386,000 kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the PV industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a PV enterprise symposium on August 19th. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and consider promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. There are expectations of increased supply of polysilicon due to the复产 of some bases and new capacity release [2] 3.7 Key Points of View - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase, while the demand is weak. The short - term demand for polysilicon is restricted by the low PV new installation in June. The operating rate of downstream PV enterprises is difficult to improve. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week, with prices showing a volatile trend. Industrial silicon demand is declining, and the market remains volatile [2] 3.8 Key Concerns - There is no news today. The polysilicon market is in high - level volatility, and the PV symposium has not released much news. The market is still speculating on merger rumors. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially with increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. In this context, the "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on opportunities for the expansion of term spreads brought about by curve steepening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.015, down 0.29%; TF主力收盘价105.455, down 0.21%; TS主力收盘价102.304, down 0.04%; TL主力收盘价116.090, down 1.33%. All contract volumes increased, with T主力成交量 at 20962, TF主力成交量 at 14257, TS主力成交量 at 5008, and TL主力成交量 at 47329 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes, such as TL2512 - 2509价差 down 0.13 to - 0.60, T09 - TL09价差 up 1.11 to - 8.08 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量 decreased by 12157 to 107322; TF主力持仓量 increased by 357 to 86134; TS主力持仓量 decreased by 4546 to 61412; TL主力持仓量 decreased by 7726 to 61613. The net positions of the top 20 traders also had various changes [2]. 3.2 CTD Bond Data The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, for example, 220010.IB(6y) decreased by 0.3457 to 106.5921, and 250007.IB(6y) decreased by 0.2601 to 99.0955 [2]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields The yields of treasury bond active bonds increased, with the 1 - year yield up 0.20bp to 1.3600%, the 5 - year yield up 1.75bp to 1.5825%, the 7 - year yield up 1.20bp to 1.6850%, and the 10 - year yield up 1.30bp to 1.7450% [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates All short - term interest rates increased, such as the silver - pledged overnight rate up 6.76bp to 1.4776%, the Shibor overnight rate up 3.80bp to 1.4360%, etc. [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates The 1 - year LPR rate remained at 3.00%, and the 5 - year LPR rate remained at 3.5% [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2665 billion, the maturity scale was 1120 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and support key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12% [2]. - **Housing Prices**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The number of cities with month - on - month increases in new - home prices decreased, and only one city had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. 3.8 Key Events to Watch - August 20, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value. - August 21, 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View The uncertainty of the trade war still exists the demand expectation of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak and the futures price fluctuates greatly investors are advised to be cautious pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control and track geopolitical capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - EC主力收盘价1373.100环比上涨0.1 EC次主力收盘价1789.7环比上涨40.30 [1] - EC2510 - EC2512价差 -416.60环比下降27.20 EC2510 - EC2602价差 -164.80环比下降8.30 [1] - EC合约基差807.07环比下降54.81 [1] - EC主力持仓量53182手环比下降1677手 [1] - SCFIS（欧线）周数据2180.17环比下降55.31 SCFIS（美西线）周数据1106.29环比下降24.15 [1] - SCFI（综合指数）周数据1460.19环比下降29.49 集装箱船运力1227.97万标准箱环比持平 [1] - CCFI（综合指数）周数据1193.34环比下降7.39 CCFI（欧线）周数据1790.47环比下降8.58 [1] - 波罗的海干散货指数日数据2044.00环比下降5.00 巴拿马型运费指数日数据1622.00环比下降19.00 [1] - 巴拿马型船平均租船价格13956.00环比上涨120.00 好望角型船平均租船价格25535.00环比下降1183.00 [1] Industry News - 央行发布第二季度货币政策执行报告提出落实落细适度宽松的货币政策保持流动性充裕促进物价合理回升发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能支持科技创新等领域 [1] - 美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围将数百种衍生产品纳入加征关税清单8月18日正式生效 [1] - 美国中东问题特使表示美俄领导人8月15日会晤取得重大进展促使特朗普放弃俄乌立即停火诉求致力于推进更广泛和平协议俄罗斯在涉及五个乌克兰地区问题上作出"一些让步"普京同意在未来和平协议中纳入"类北约第五条款"安全保障条款 [1] Market Analysis - 周四集运指数（欧线）期货价格多数上涨主力合约EC2510收涨0.01%远月合约收涨1 - 2%不等 [1] - 最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为2180.17较上周回落55.31点环比下行2.5%现货指标持续回落 [1] - 头部船司为争夺淡季货量开启"价格战"大幅调降8月运价报价ONE亦调降8月底欧线现舱报价市场预期转冷 [1] - 美国特朗普计划在未来两周内宣布对钢铁芯片和半导体加征关税加剧全球贸易局势不确定性 [1] - 美国7月CPI与非农数据放缓提振联储9月降息概率但PPI指标显示生产者通胀超预期反弹或转嫁成本抬升CPI消费者通胀数据申领失业金人数延续韧性美联储9月降息概率边际下滑 [1] - 2025 Q2欧元区GDP增速略超市场预期服务业和制造业活动逐步回暖通胀放缓叠加经济数据稳定给予欧央行利率政策弹性 [1] Key Points to Watch - 8月19日16:00关注欧元区6月季调后经常帐(亿欧元) 8月19日20:30关注美国7月新屋开工总数年化(万户) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the ru2601 contract is to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,200, and for the nr2510 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000. As maintenance - affected enterprises resume operations, there is still a small upward space for production capacity utilization, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprises' production control will continue, which will limit the increase in overall production capacity utilization [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 1,035 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 133,455 lots, down 1,052 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 58,494 lots, up 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,125 lots, down 1,030 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,931 lots, down 477 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 179,590 tons, down 340 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 920 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,918 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 268 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 63.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.81%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.88%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.19%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.19%, up 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 17th to August 23rd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decrease of 0.87%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, with signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit from out - of - quota imports remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise due to the hot summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down, and the new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the main contract position was 322,832 lots, up 7,392 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,931, down 173; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 26,523 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,561 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,579 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,796 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,819 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou it was 6,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, up 0.2347 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,322 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,304 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 87 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 64 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.4%, down 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.37%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.96%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.31%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, China's sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.66% last Friday, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.42% on Monday. The sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil in the second half of July decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 3.614 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although economic data weakened in July, market expectations for policy intensification have increased. The market is focusing on the semi - annual reports of listed companies, with positive net profit growth in the four broad - based indices. Some companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but the potential drag from unreported companies' profit declines should be watched. A - shares with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign capital inflows. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed price increases. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose 34.6 to 4237.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts showed increases. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread rose 26.4 to 1389.4 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM increased, while that of IC decreased slightly [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC main contracts decreased, while that of IM increased [2]. 3.2 Market Data - **Spot Prices**: All major spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) rose. The CSI 300 rose 37.1 to 4239.41 [2]. - **Market Turnover and Margin Trading**: A - share trading volume remained at a high level, and the margin trading balance increased slightly [2]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: North - bound trading was active, and the proportion of rising stocks decreased. The Shibor rate increased [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In July 2025, fixed - asset investment, real - estate investment, and social retail sales growth slowed down compared to previous values. However, inflation data showed improvement, and the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow [2]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed higher, with over 4000 stocks rising. Communication, comprehensive, and computer sectors strengthened, while real - estate and oil sectors declined [2]. 3.4 Upcoming Key Data - August 20th, 9:00: China's one - year and five - year LPR quotes - August 21st, 15:00 - 16:30: France, Germany, Eurozone, and UK's August SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values; 21:45: US August SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values - August 22nd, 22:00: Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, the SM2601 contract of manganese - silicon reported 6120, up 0.36%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was 5900. Considering the macro - level, position limits affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, production has been on the rise since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, and raw material costs and downstream iron - water production are at a high level. Profits vary by region, and the August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the SF2511 contract of silicon - iron reported 5880, down 0.37%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron was 5610. The US Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks after profit improvement, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. The August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 6026 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5880 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 590,689 hands, down 1028 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 446,020 hands, up 12,269 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 81,119 hands, up 5075 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon - iron was - 24,060 hands, up 5047 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 156 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The SM仓单 was 73,660 sheets, down 1137 sheets; the SF仓单 was 20,716 sheets, down 200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai was 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5870 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the daily basis of the SF主力合约 was - 270 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton [2]. - The daily basis of the SM主力合约 was - 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%) in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material) in Shenmu was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly port inventory of manganese ore was 446.60 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of silicon - iron enterprises was 36.18%, up 1.86 percentage points [2]. - The weekly supply of manganese - silicon was 207,060 tons, up 11,235 tons; the weekly supply of silicon - iron was 112,900 tons, up 3800 tons [2]. - The half - monthly inventory of manganese - silicon manufacturers was 158,800 tons, down 2700 tons; the half - monthly inventory of silicon - iron manufacturers was 65,180 tons, down 6590 tons [2]. - The monthly inventory days of manganese - silicon in national steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the monthly inventory days of silicon - iron in national steel mills was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,382 tons, up 182 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 20,313.96 tons, up 47.66 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.524 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and creating effective demand through high - quality supply [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real - estate new construction will decrease significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the area of residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters [2]. - Trump mentioned in a call with Zelensky that Russia hopes Ukraine will hand over the Donbass region in exchange for a cease - fire [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost recently supports the supply price of butadiene rubber. The previously overhauled devices have not resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Some devices are expected to restart this week, and domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the downstream's cautious sentiment and production - sales pressure, downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, and there is still room for a slight increase as the overhauled enterprises resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, dragging down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term forecast for the br2510 contract is in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 17,454, down 2,902. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 82.5 dollars/barrel, down 0.99 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.8 dollars/barrel, down 1.16 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, up 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2] 6. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is facing a complex situation. In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 5054 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the trading volume is 819,976 lots, up 315,680 lots; the open interest is 869,290 lots, up 83,334 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,473 lots, down 4,750 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4869.23 yuan/ton, down 10.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4906.88 yuan/ton, down 25.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 254 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2548.33 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China is 2320 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 521 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 181 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia is 189 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.33%, up 0.87 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.96%, up 1.31 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.23 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 49.28 tons, up 1.2 tons. The inventory in the East China region is 43.52 tons, up 1.15 tons, and in the South China region is 5.76 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 25.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.03%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points [3]. Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC, with a much higher increase for the Chinese mainland than other countries and regions. The market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou on August 18 was 0 - 50 yuan/ton lower than last Friday, at 4780 - 4880 yuan/ton. The PVC main contract has changed to V2601, which closed down 1.17% at 5054 yuan/ton. From August 9 to 15, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.33%, up 0.87% from the previous period. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% to 811,400 tons compared with the previous period, and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. The domestic calcium - carbide price is under pressure, and the US dollar price of ethylene may maintain a slight upward trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2]. - As the traditional consumption off - season for downstream industries is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously backlogged orders have been released. At the same time, holders of goods have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has corrected, the bullish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support of MA20. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 14,994 lots, a decrease of 1,580 lots. The position of the main contract for stainless steel is 134,400 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 285 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles turned negative. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was 5.7%, with automobiles and electronics leading the way, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, for the 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in prices in all tiers of cities narrowed [2]. - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month in July, which was the second consecutive month of significant growth in retail sales, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The June data was revised up significantly to 0.9% [2]. Key Points to Watch No news on this day [2]