Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to buy on dips and place long orders [2] 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and solar power installed capacity exceeded thermal power, marking the energy revolution entering a deeper stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations are key to achieving the "dual carbon" goal [2] - On the supply side of polysilicon, as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, production costs for polysilicon enterprises are rising, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have started to reduce production. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand. Component tender prices are continuously falling, leading to delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers [2] - Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall industry gross margin is narrowing [2] - Internationally, high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand. The loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports but cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side [2] - Market rumors about the government's potential policy to regulate photovoltaic production capacity have boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time of the policy are still unclear [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,355 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 114,932 lots, up 9,055 lots. The basis between December and January for polysilicon is 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,400 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,520 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, in the industrial silicon market, production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest will occur simultaneously; there is high uncertainty in the demand for polysilicon, while the demand for organosilicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable; costs provide support for prices at the lower end, but high inventories limit the upside potential of prices. Industrial silicon continued to fluctuate at the bottom today. If production capacity continues to decline, industrial silicon prices are expected to find support. However, the short - term main contract is near the high - price level, so it is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 211,670 hands, up 10,152 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 55,846 hands, down 7,555 hands; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 48,044 hands, down 141 hands; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly industrial silicon exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organosilicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organosilicon DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity exceeded that of thermal power for the first time, marking that the energy revolution has entered a critical stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations represented by wind and solar energy have become the key forces in achieving the "dual - carbon" goal. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, leading to an increase in manufacturers' production costs. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have chosen to stop production. As November approaches, the scale of production cuts during the dry season is expected to further expand. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers are actively increasing production, with an increase in the number of furnaces in operation and continuous release of production capacity [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis - In the organosilicon segment, inventories are lower than the historical average. The production profit of organosilicon has slightly rebounded but remains in the loss range, providing some rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. Most organosilicon manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and many are in maintenance or plan to enter maintenance, which maintains the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, inventories are as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average. The prices of silicon wafers are flat, and the prices of solar cells are falling, with poor downstream transmission. Leading enterprises have maintenance plans, and there is a risk of weakening demand support for industrial silicon in the future. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable, with high demand for industrial silicon, showing relatively stable demand, but the marginal effect on industrial silicon prices is limited [2]

生猪产业日报 2025-10-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12160 | -170 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 117248 | 7747 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 206 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -30906 | 694 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12300 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 440 | 470 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4038 | -4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2970 | 10 | | ...

国债期货日报 2025/10/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 75068 | 108.415 | 0.25% T主力成交量 | | -874↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 67869 | 105.895 | 0.15% TF主力成交量 | | 9745↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 39423 | 102.466 | 0.08% TS主力成交量 | | 9448↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 123331 | 115.960 | 0.55% TL主力成交量 | | 9625↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 -7.54 | 0.27 | -0.03↓ T12-TL12价差 | | -0.32↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.32 | -0.01↓ TF12-T12价差 | -2.52 | -0.09↓ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | 0.12 | -0.01↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.95 | -0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved slightly, but most of them only maintain a weak balance between production and sales. With some devices shut down for maintenance, the rising trend of enterprise inventory has slowed down, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory only increased slightly last week. However, according to the progress of agriculture, the duration of future demand is limited, and the inventory may still show an increasing trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,600 - 1,660 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is -73 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 273,001 lots, a decrease of 8,953 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -32,661; the exchange warehouse receipt is 2,970 sheets, a decrease of 2,318 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,590 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 348.5 US dollars/ton and 375 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a decrease of 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points; the daily output is 182,600 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, an increase of 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.91%. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.2779 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61% [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - **Corn**: With the approaching harvest season, the supply of new corn is increasing, putting downward pressure on prices. In the US, although the estimated yield per unit is lower than the previous forecast, the overall supply pressure is still increasing. In China, the harvest progress in the Northeast has exceeded 40%, and the yield per unit has increased significantly. However, the trading volume is slow, and the purchase price has declined slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase price has continued to weaken due to high moisture and low-quality new grain. The corn futures price has fallen again, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [2][3]. - **Corn Starch**: The increase in the supply of raw corn has weakened the cost support for corn starch. The substitution advantage of tapioca starch has continued to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. However, the industry's operating rate has been lower than the same period in previous years, and the supply pressure is not significant. Recently, the company's orders and shipments have been good, and the inventory has slightly declined. The starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) was -16 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 13,618 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 traders was -78,853 lots, down 5,574 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 0 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract was 2425 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the monthly spread (11 - 1) was 24 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract was 211,606 lots, down 74 lots; the net long position of the top 20 traders was -58,907 lots; the registered warehouse receipts were 61,968 lots [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract was 348 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract was 424 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents; the total position was 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was -51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price was 2242.55 yuan/ton, down 6.08 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn was 1982.02 yuan/ton, up 0.37 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 85 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The average spot price of wheat was 2475 yuan/ton, up 8.83 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 298 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was -193 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Sowing Area and Yield Forecast**: The sowing area in the US was 42.711 million hectares, and the yield was 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; in Brazil, the sowing area was not provided, and the yield was 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, the sowing area was 5.3 million hectares, and the yield was 7.5 million tons, unchanged; in China, the sowing area was 29.5 million hectares, and the yield was 44.3 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine, the yield was 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventory at southern ports was 9.3 million tons; at northern ports was 11 million tons; the deep - processing inventory was 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises was 114 million tons, down 5.9 million tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn was 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 201.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Consumption**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn was 4.02 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises was 61.67%, up 8.48%; the operating rate of starch enterprises was 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong was 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; in Hebei was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was 95 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn was 8.91%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.15%, up 0.23% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn was 13.1%, up 3.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.1%, up 3.33% [2]. Industry News - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the release of the CFTC's position report and the USDA's crop progress report, causing cautious trading in the market [2]. - As of October 22, the sown area of corn in Argentina in the 2025/26 season accounted for 33.8% of the total expected area, 3.9% higher than a week ago [2]. Key Points of Attention - The weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,100.00 | +54↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1953001 | -97544↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -112104 | +32581↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -59 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 150419 | 0.00 HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 199 | -5↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | +30↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | +31↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,290.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB40 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. There was a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues in the negotiation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation supported steel prices. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, terminal demand rebounded, and inventory declined. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the position volume was 1,482,730 lots, down 18,766 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 53,875 lots, down 4,034 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 134,667 tons, down 2,398 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 199 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 61 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2873 million tons, down 12,300 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2246 million tons, up 6,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.37%, up 0.16%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 773,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.3757 million tons, down 37,700 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which prohibited the increase of the total steel production capacity in key areas and the transfer of steel production capacity between different key areas. Hebei's Tangshan, Langfang, Handan, and Baoding launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on October 27 at 12:00. Some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production - restriction time to the end of October, and blast furnaces were shut down by 30% according to capacity, which was estimated to affect the daily hot - metal output by 91,000 tons and 409,500 tons in 4.5 days [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

当前新果好货难寻及优果优价的情况下，预计短期苹果期价仍维持震荡偏强运行。 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、中果网、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 86 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8936 | | | 143040 | 1 ...