苯乙烯产业日报 2025-11-17 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 只是终端需求尚无改善信号，或限制需求增长空间与持续性。现货紧平衡状态预计持续，缓慢消耗高库存 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 压力。成本方面，欧佩克增产持续至年底，原油供强于需局面预计维持，但地缘方面美委关系紧张可能加 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 剧，国际油价多空因素交织。受"反内卷"情绪驱动及海外调油需求上升利好，近期盘面有所反弹。不过 免责声明 ，短期供需基本面仍无改善迹象，12月合约基差也处在中性区间。技术上，EB2512关注6630附近压力。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 6496 406451 | 46 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, -11760 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's next crop season production increase. In the future, the raw sugar price will adjust in the process of continuous expectation adjustment. In the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast. The total sugar output slightly exceeds expectations. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old sugar in Guangxi has basically been cleared. The delayed start of production in Guangxi has put some pressure on the spot market, while the lack of intention to reduce the price of processed sugar provides support at the lower end [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 359,183 lots, down 11,059 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,622, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -52,091 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,090 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,182 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,177 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,296 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative sugar production nationwide is 1,457 million tons, down 85 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 241.88 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 602.29 million tons, up 95.92 million tons; the import volume of sugar in the current month is 55 million tons, down 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 316 million tons, up 55 million tons; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,370 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 365 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.37%, up 0.78%; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.75%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the second half of October 2025, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 31.108 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; produced 2.068 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a sugar production ratio of 46.02%, higher than 45.91% in the same period last year. As of November 1, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central-southern region had cumulatively crushed 556 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, and cumulatively produced 38.085 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%. India maintains its sugar export policy for the 2025/26 season. In the 2024/25 sugar season, India exported 800,000 tons of sugar, lower than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable, and the current situation of oversupply may improve with production control [2] - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and the options market sentiment is slightly bullish [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage where supply converges and demand slightly decreases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,858.50 US dollars/ton, down 18.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 552,375 tons, down 825 tons [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina was - 82 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,630 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,890 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 560 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was - 28.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.62 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2] - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] - The national alumina开工率 was 85.28%, down 0.70 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.30 million tons, down 1.70 million tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.60 million tons, down 0.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum in 20 days was 10.76%, up 0.31 percentage points; the historical volatility in 40 days was 9.81%, down 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 11.67%, down 0.0054; the option call - put ratio was 1.24, down 0.0132 [2] 3.7 Industry News - There are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for October, showing a slowdown in growth rates of multiple indicators [2] - The country aims to develop new productive forces, focusing on emerging and future industries; the State Council promotes "two - heavy" construction and consumer policies [2] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for sufficient and precise fiscal policies to promote economic balance [2]

沪锡产业日报 2025-11-17 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 290360 | -1090 12月-1月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -560 | -110 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 36860 | -205 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31904 | -4437 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -636 | 305 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3065 | 10 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6258 | 266 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6099 | 167 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 289900 | -2200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 290090 | -2950 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-17 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3229 | 196 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -17934 | 1764 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -270 | -28 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 219781 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the corn market, the USDA's November supply - demand report shows a slightly bearish outlook for US corn, but in the domestic market, cold weather in Northeast and North China has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced available grain sources, and stronger corporate purchase prices. Corn futures prices have strengthened recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - In the starch market, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has recovered, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. Starch futures have oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2182 yuan/ton, and the corn starch futures closing price (active contract) of another data is 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 61 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 2 yuan, down 3 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 934047 lots, down 13255 lots, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 227112 lots, down 10823 lots [2]. Outer - disc Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 430.25 cents/bushel, and CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. CBOT corn non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2275.29 yuan/ton, the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, the predicted yield is 131 million tons; in Brazil, the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, the predicted sown area is 53 million hectares, the predicted yield is 7.5 million tons; in China, the predicted sown area is 295 million hectares, the predicted yield is 44.3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 320,000 tons, in northern ports is 1240,000 tons, down 0.5 tons from the previous week. The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei is 104 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is 22 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.57%, down 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.7%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 5.92%, down 1.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.92%, down 1.64% [2]. Industry News - The USDA's November supply - demand report shows that the expected US corn yield in the 2025/26 season is adjusted down to 1.6752 billion bushels, the export target is increased by 100 million bushels to 3.075 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is increased [2]. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1210.00 | +18.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1710.00 | +40.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 912812.00 | -22920.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47574.00 | -2075.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -100998.00 | +1324.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3608.00 | +450.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 67.00 | +9.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 137.50 | -5.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.0 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Pure Benzene Industry Daily Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic petroleum benzene profit has slightly narrowed and is in a state of low valuation due to weak supply and demand. The planned maintenance capacity of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene in November is relatively small, and foreign supplies continue to flow in, resulting in a relatively high overall supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and devices such as styrene are expected to maintain low - level operation, making it difficult for downstream consumption to increase. In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of supply exceeding demand in the crude oil market is expected to continue. However, the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela in the geopolitical aspect may intensify, and there are both bullish and bearish factors in international oil prices. The US gasoline blending demand is increasing, and overseas pure benzene prices are relatively strong. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,547 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the settlement price was 5,565 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract was 14,191 lots, down 3,004 lots; the open interest was 20,275 lots, up 417 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Domestic Prices**: The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,405 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,235 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; in the South China market, it was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5,235 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Shanxi, it was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **International Prices**: The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 664 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 678.24 US dollars/ton, up 2.27 US dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - **Crude Oil and Naphtha**: The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 63.78 US dollars/barrel, up 1.42 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.38 US dollars/ton, up 8.25 US dollars [2]. - **Pure Benzene Production**: The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 77.98% (weekly), up 2.84 percentage points; the weekly output was 45.43 million tons, up 1.65 million tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports was 11.3 million tons (weekly), down 0.8 million tons. As of November 17, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 14.7 million tons, up 30.09% week - on - week [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of pure benzene was 5,316.2 yuan/ton (weekly), up 14.4 yuan; the production profit was 29 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - **Capacity Utilization Rates**: The total开工率 of styrene was 69.25% (weekly), up 2.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 86.04%, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 67.25%, down 8.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 80.17%, up 2.43 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 62%, down 3.6 percentage points [2]. - **Industry Data**: From November 8th to 14th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 2.83% to 77.98%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 0.75% to 54.55%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 0.17% to 72.20% [2]. 6. Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene increased, and the domestic pure benzene production increased. The operating rates of downstream industries varied, and the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased slightly. Delayed resources arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased significantly this week [2]. - From November 7th to 13th, the domestic petroleum benzene profit was 29 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [2]. 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 5,450 and the resistance around 5,640 [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Last week, the national average operating rate of caustic soda decreased slightly, downstream operating rates changed little, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories continued to decline with a moderately high inventory pressure. The strong price of thermal coal drove up costs, while the prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine were weak, leading to a decline in the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong last week. This week, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to reduce production, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts yet. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the chlor - alkali plant maintains high operation and high profit. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong fell under pressure. The current main basis is still high, reflecting the market's weak supply - demand expectation for the future, waiting for verification. Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 2270 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2291 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2291 yuan/ton and 2438 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 44 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in futures was - 23970 lots, down 8850 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 391745 lots, an increase of 34254 lots, and the position was 150653 lots, an increase of 23961 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions was 780 yuan/ton and 910 yuan/ton respectively, with Shandong down 10 yuan and Jiangsu unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan, and the basis was 147 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu was 50.5 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda in China decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% month - on - month to 85.37%. From November 7th to 13th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 89.50%, and the dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% month - on - month to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.22 tons, down 3.04% month - on - month. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down month - on - month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The price of the main 2601 contract was 2185 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from last week. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply pressure of US corn is high, but the upcoming USDA report may lower the yield per acre, and the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In China, due to weather conditions, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and the market supply has decreased, leading to a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices [6]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The price of the main 2601 contract was 2505 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last week. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply pressure has increased due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, but the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a price of 2185 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Outlook**: US corn harvest is almost finished, with high short - term supply pressure. The USDA report may lower the yield per acre, and the rise of US soybeans and wheat supports the price. In China, cold weather in the Northeast and North China has increased farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the market supply and increasing enterprise purchase prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner, with a price of 2505 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure. However, the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position - Corn futures' 1 - month contract closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 947302 lots, down 29717 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' 1 - month contract also closed higher, with a total position of 237935 lots, up 11853 lots from last week [13]. - The net short position of the top 20 in corn futures increased, while that of corn starch futures decreased slightly [19]. 3.2.2. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 69337, and those of corn starch were 12453 [25]. 3.2.3. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2259.8 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract and the spot average price was +75 yuan/ton [30]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 95 yuan/ton [34]. 3.2.4. Inter - monthly Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn futures was - 12 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of corn starch futures was +5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [40]. 3.2.5. Futures Spread - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from last week [49]. 3.2.6. Substitute Spread - As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2484.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2259.8 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.7 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, widening by 118 yuan/ton from last week [54]. 3.3. Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 45.4 tons, up 2.90 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 41.2 tons, up 9.50 tons. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 107.1 tons, up 5.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 58.2 tons, down 13.40 tons week - on - week [44]. - The total corn sales progress was 24% as of November 13, 2025, up 2% from November 6 and 1% year - on - year [56]. - In September 2025, China's corn imports were 56562.26 tons, down 81.93% year - on - year and up 20404.55 tons month - on - month [60]. - As of November 13, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, up 0.73 days from last week, a 2.93% week - on - week increase and a 12.11% year - on - year decrease [64]. - **Demand**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 43680 million, a 2.3% year - on - year increase and a 2.9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The inventory of breeding sows was 4035 million, a 0.7% year - on - year decrease and a 0.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease [68]. - As of November 7, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head [72]. - As of November 13, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 38 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 569 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 267 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply**: As of November 12, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 273.5 tons, a 2.15% decrease [81]. - From November 6 to 12, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 63.19 tons, up 0.53 tons from last week; the corn starch output was 32.84 tons, up 0.37 tons; the operating rate was 63.48%, up 0.72%. As of November 12, the national corn starch inventory was 113.3 tons, down 0.50 tons from last week, a 0.44% week - on - week decrease, a 0.44% month - on - month increase, and a 27.59% year - on - year increase [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 14, the implied volatility of the corn main 2601 contract was 7.96%, down 0.55% from last week's 8.51%. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].