瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 螺纹钢市场周报 供应+需求双弱 螺纹期价陷入区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月14日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3053（+19），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+10）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量下调。200（-8.54），同比（-33.94）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需216.37（-2.15），（同比-14.47）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存576.17（-16.37），（同比+130.68）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少18.62个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）IMF预计，美国联邦政府"停摆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of the I2601 contract may be limited. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control. The Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut has weakened, and the domestic macro - economic data in October was weaker than expected. The iron ore port inventory has increased for eight consecutive weeks, approaching the 160 - million - ton mark. Downstream steel mills generally purchase on demand. The stop - falling and rebound of molten iron support the spot, but the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on November 14, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 772.5 (+12) yuan/ton, and the price of Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 838 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6] 3.1.2 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment decreased by 144,800 tons week - on - week. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 30.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.106 million tons [5][6] 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 544,800 tons. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 27.693 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544,800 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons [6] 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron output increased by 26,600 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [6] 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 188,710 tons. As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 47,670 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons [6] 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62 percentage points [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated higher. The price of the I2601 contract was stronger than that of the I2605 contract. On the 14th, the price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [14] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipt and Net Position - On November 14, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 900, a week - on - week increase of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 27,363, a decrease of 8,080 compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On November 14, the price of 61% Australian Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 838 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 14th, the basis was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased. The total global iron ore shipment and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil both decreased week - on - week [31] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.4028 million tons, an increase of 47,300 tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 days [34] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of November 13, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On November 13, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2077, a week - on - week decrease of 27 [39] 3.3.4 Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 5.017 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3%; from January to October, the cumulative import was 1.028886 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the average daily output of concentrate powder was 401,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the inventory was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 241,000 tons [42] 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In September 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 84.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6337 million tons; from January to August, the cumulative output was 755.6713 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. In September, the output of iron concentrate powder from 433 domestic iron mines was 22.845 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 356,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; from January to September, the cumulative output was 206.918 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.918 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Output - In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] 3.4.2 Steel Import and Export - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imported 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel export was 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative import was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [49] 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On November 14, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.22 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - Consider buying out - of - the - money put options on rebounds as the molten iron output has stopped falling and rebounded, but the iron ore port inventory continues to increase, and the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After nearly two weeks of oscillatory corrections, the precious metals market regained upward momentum this week, with both gold and silver prices reaching new stage highs. Uncertainty in macro - data, increased bets on Fed rate cuts, liquidity buffers, and rising U.S. government debt risks pushed prices up. However, Fed officials' divergent stances and neutral - hawkish signals affected the probability of a December rate cut, putting pressure on precious metals [6]. - In the short term, if the U.S. stock market continues to correct, liquidity risks may increase the pressure for a high - level correction in precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected may suppress rate - cut expectations and push up U.S. Treasury yields, potentially harming gold prices. In the long run, due to the increasing U.S. debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the dollar, gold remains attractive, and with central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market rebounded this week. The passage of the temporary appropriation bill, uncertainty in macro - data, signs of a weakening job market, and rising U.S. government debt risk pushed up gold and silver prices. Fed officials had different stances, and the probability of a December rate cut dropped to 50%. Silver's upward trend was stronger than gold's, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, a continued correction in the U.S. stock market and a more hawkish Fed could pressure precious metal prices. In the long term, the high U.S. debt and central bank gold purchases are favorable for gold. Next week, the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 970 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11500 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Performance**: As of November 14, 2025, COMEX silver was at $52.470 per ounce, up 8.79% week - on - week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 12351 yuan/kilogram, up 7.55%. COMEX gold was at $4169.5 per ounce, up 4.03%; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 953.20 yuan/gram, up 3.47% [9]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 13, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.82% to 1048.93 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 15173 tons [14]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, COMEX position data was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43% to 528789 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75% to 165805 contracts, and net positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [15][19]. - **Basis**: As of November 13, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.22 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 70 yuan/kilogram [22]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.81% to 37541509.64 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased by 2.05% to 89616 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.8% to 478558059 ounces, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.40% to 623052 kilograms [28]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% to 245749 kilograms, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% to 160587998 kilograms. Semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [34][39]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: As of the end of 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year); total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [45][49]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, gold jewelry prices rose with the increase in gold prices. As of November 13, 2025, Lao Feng Xiang's gold price was 1325 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook's was 1333 yuan/gram, and Zhou Liu Fu's was 1295 yuan/gram. The Chinese gold recycling price was 954.90 yuan/gram, up 4.60% week - on - week [56]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: This week, the U.S. dollar index declined under pressure at a high level, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield decreased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread was basically the same as last week, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [62][66][70]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter, reversing the decline at the beginning of the year. The net gold purchase volume in Q3 was 220 tons, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. The total net gold purchase volume from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, lower than the extremely high levels of the past three years but still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market fluctuated and closed lower. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Under the pressure of high production capacity, the futures price weakened again recently and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The egg market fluctuated and closed lower this week. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern of the market. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Recently, under the restraint of high - production - capacity pressure, the futures price has weakened again and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures contract 1 fluctuated and declined. The position volume was 208,963 lots, an increase of 28,593 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 17,934, compared with - 7,153 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,039 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active egg contract 1 futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 196 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The egg 1 - 5 spread was reported at - 242 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.77 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The average age of culled chickens nationwide was reported at 507 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,259.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,020 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.06 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure on the change in price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific analysis content is available [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, although Canadian rapeseed exports have declined significantly, there are policy - side benefits such as the bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan. In China, near - month imported rapeseed supply is structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks, leading to a common shutdown phenomenon. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have strengthened significantly, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. - For rapeseed meal, analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, and the optimistic trade sentiment supports the US soybean market price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the strengthening of rapeseed oil prices, rapeseed meal futures prices have declined from high levels, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose significantly. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9,923 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 54.1% year - on - year. There are policy benefits, but the China - Canada trade negotiation on rapeseed tariffs has not reached an agreement. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is tight, oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode. However, soybean oil has a substitution advantage, and rapeseed oil demand is mainly basic. The futures price has strengthened recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down. But the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is weakening, and soybean meal has a substitution advantage. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price has declined from high levels [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly this week, with a total position of 248,580 lots, an increase of 38,090 lots compared to last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined, with a total position of 472,680 lots, an increase of 9,194 lots compared to last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from a net short position of - 8,654 last week to a net long position of + 5,946. The top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures increased slightly from + 26,405 last week to + 27,455 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 5,323 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,745 lots [28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 367 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 10 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was + 499 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was + 65 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 3.985, and the average spot price ratio was 4.15 [51]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly widened this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, and the spread also slightly widened this week [60]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 602 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 550 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of November 7, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.5 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 650,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 6.2 million tons respectively [72]. - **Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit**: As of November 13, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,247 yuan/ton [76]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 45th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to last week, and the weekly startup rate was 0.0% [80]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. In September 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side: Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 450.86 billion yuan [92]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.22% [96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [100]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [104]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 14, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 20.65%, a decrease of 0.45% compared to last week's 21.1%, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market: A-share major indices declined collectively this week, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 and ChiNext indices falling by over 3%. The four stock index futures also declined. The market's trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. The market is expected to continue its weak recovery in the fourth quarter [9][15]. - Bond market: This week, Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short-term weakness and long-term strength, and the capital market tightened slightly. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited [9]. - Commodity market: China's PPI in October rebounded significantly, supporting the commodity index. However, gold and crude oil are expected to remain volatile. Given their large weights in the commodity index, the commodity index is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. - Foreign exchange market: The US dollar index continued to decline under pressure this week. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to oscillate in the short term. The euro area's economic outlook continued to improve, and the euro was supported in the medium term. The Japanese yen remained under pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.08%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures dropped by 1.26%. A-share major indices opened higher on Monday due to the inflation data released on Sunday, oscillated from Tuesday to Thursday, and declined significantly on Friday due to weak economic data in October. The recommendation is to buy on dips [9]. - **Bond**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.03%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.06%. Treasury bond futures showed short-term weakness and long-term strength this week, and the capital market tightened slightly. The recommendation is to trade within a range [9]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index rose by 3.92%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 1.52%. China's PPI in October rebounded significantly, but gold and crude oil are expected to remain volatile. The recommendation is to wait and see [9]. - **Foreign exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose by 0.78%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract increased by 0.68%. The US government shutdown led to a downgraded economic outlook, and the US dollar declined. The recommendation is to be cautious and wait and see [9]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs suspended the implementation of multiple export control measures; China and Spain signed 10 cooperation documents; the State Council issued measures to promote private investment; ten departments promoted the opening and interconnection of logistics data [17]. - **International**: The US government shutdown ended; some Fed officials were cautious about interest rate cuts; the US suspended the implementation of export control penetration rules [13][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% from January to October, CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [14]. - **US**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped significantly, and the US dollar oscillated in the short term [13]. - **Eurozone**: The economic outlook continued to improve, and the euro was supported in the medium term [13]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **US**: The industrial output monthly rate in October, the NAHB housing market index in November, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 [78]. - **UK**: The CPI monthly rate in October, the retail price index monthly rate in October, and the Gfk consumer confidence index in November [78]. - **Eurozone**: The CPI annual rate final value in October and the consumer confidence index preliminary value in November [78]. - **China**: The one-year loan prime rate as of November 20 [78]. - **Japan**: The core CPI annual rate in October [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.24%. The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.12%, while the international raw sugar spot price was 13.93 cents per pound, down 0.21 cents per pound from last week [5][10][18]. - In the 2025/26 season, India maintains its sugar export policy. In the 2024/25 season, India has exported 800,000 tons of sugar, less than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons. The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's production increase in the next season, and the price will be adjusted as expectations are revised [5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugarcane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar beets [5]. - Currently, a total of 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old - sugar stocks in Guangxi are basically cleared. The delay in the start of production in Guangxi puts some pressure on the spot market, while the processing sugar has little intention to reduce prices, providing support at the lower end [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.24% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the international market, the raw sugar price will adjust as expectations are revised. In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase, and the delay in the start of production in Guangxi affects the spot market [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract rose by about 2.12% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose by about 0.24%. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures is - 48,324 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 8,622. The price difference between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts is + 66 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis is + 290 yuan/ton [10][19][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, the old - sugar stocks are being cleared, and there is no new quotation. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,813 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 539 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota is 1,533 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 467 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from last week [37][43]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [48]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [51]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [55]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 season have all stopped production. The national sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [61]. - **Production of Related Products**: In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [65]. 3.4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [67]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.86%. The late - maturing Fuji apple storage work for the new season is nearing completion, and the remaining inventory is mainly concentrated in places like Qixia, Shandong. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The sales market has entered the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed to some extent by the increasing supply of citrus fruits. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 5.86% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: The cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide is lower than last year. The storage work in Shandong is in the peak period, while in Shaanxi, it is basically completed. The sales market is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose by about 5.86% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 9500 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [8][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the mainstream price of纸袋 red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.5 yuan per catty; the price of paper - bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.30 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.27%, an increase of 10.24% from last week, and in Shaanxi, it was 59.64%, an increase of 2.63% from last week [24]. - **Demand Side**: - **Wholesale Market**: As of November 14, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0). As of November 7, 2025, the average wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.49 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [28][31][35]. - **Export**: In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70800 tons, with an export value of 69178601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [39]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week was presented in a chart, but specific data was not provided [40]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit was presented, but specific analysis was not provided [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.96%. The price of the US cotton March contract also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 0.92% [5][11]. - In the domestic market, the acquisition and processing of new cotton are progressing rapidly, and the acquisition is nearly finished. The acquisition price of cotton has increased, providing cost support. However, with the gradual issuance of import quotas and the accelerated shipment of high - grade new cotton from Brazil, the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. Currently, the port inventory has reached a four - month high, with large arrivals and limited shipments [5]. - In October, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double - decline in both year - on - year and month - on - month terms, with the decline in clothing exports significantly greater than that of textiles. But there are signs of marginal improvement in domestic retail demand. Overall, the supply side continues to exert pressure, while the domestic demand shows marginal improvement, so the market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.96% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has cost support, but import volume is expected to rise, and port inventory is high. The demand side shows a decline in exports but marginal improvement in domestic retail. The market is expected to be volatile [5]. - **Trading Tips**: Monitor changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.92%. As of the week ending September 25, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 155,400 bales, and new sales were 158,800 bales. The international cotton spot price was 75.4 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents per pound from last week [11][15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.96%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract decreased by about 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 91,423 lots, and in cotton yarn futures was - 211 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,401, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 28 [21][27][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,806 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.2 yuan per 500 grams, and in Xinjiang, it was 3.47 yuan per 500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,470 yuan per ton [43][46][58]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 13, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,946 yuan per ton, a decrease of 150 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,949 yuan per ton, a decrease of 247 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 873 yuan per ton, an increase of 149 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,870 yuan per ton, an increase of 246 yuan per ton from last week [62][65]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year [70][77]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [80]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; clothing exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [85][89]. 4. Options and Stock Market - related Markets - **Options Market**: The report shows the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not further explained [90]. - **Stock Market**: The report presents the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no in - depth analysis is provided [93]