Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices dropped significantly. The main contract EC2510 fell 5.57%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2297.86, down 62.38 points from last week, a 2.7% decline. Spot indicators continued to fall. The "price war" among leading shipping companies and the early release of cargo volume in the second quarter led to a supply - demand mismatch, pushing down futures prices. Tariff measures increased global trade uncertainty, and although the US consumer end showed resilience, inflation may rise. China's counter - measures against the EU added to trade tensions. The demand for the freight index (European line) was expected to be weak, with large price fluctuations, but the rapid recovery of spot prices might drive futures prices up in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closed at 1333.100, down 78.6; EC secondary main contract closed at 1700.1, down 20.4. The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 was - 367.00, down 42.60; the spread between EC2510 - EC2602 was - 154.90, down 44.50. The EC contract basis was 902.38, up 22.12 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1082.14, down 47.98. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1489.68, down 61.06. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1799.05, up 9.55. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2017.00, up 21.00; the Panamax freight index (daily) was 1595.00, up 19.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 13075.00, down 218.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 25236.00, down 2232.00 [1] Industry News - China and the US continued to suspend 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12, and China continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list. Three departments jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026. Eligible loans could receive subsidies up to 3000 yuan per person. The US July CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] Key Data to Watch - On August 14, key data to watch included the UK's second - quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value, June three - month GDP monthly rate, June manufacturing output monthly rate, France's July CPI monthly rate final value, the eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate revised value, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, and the US July PPI annual rate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic refined zinc supply growth has accelerated due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, the significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, the repair of smelter profits, the release of new production capacity, and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity. The import loss continues to expand, leading to a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. The overall transaction remains dull, and domestic social inventories continue to increase while the spot premium falls. The significant decline in overseas LME inventories has led to a strong LME zinc price, which in turn drives up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,848 dollars/ton, an increase of 40 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 213,489 lots, an increase of 1,999 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,902 lots, an increase of 823 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 16,192 tons, an increase of 424 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, an increase of 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory is 79,550 tons, a decrease of 875 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.21%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [3]. Industry News - The three departments announced that for single - transaction consumption of over 50,000 yuan, interest subsidies will be provided up to a consumption limit of 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes consumption below 50,000 yuan and consumption in key areas such as household cars, elderly care and child - bearing, education and training, cultural tourism, home improvement, electronic products, and health care. The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. In July, the overall US CPI data was mild, and traders significantly increased their expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [3].

Report Date - The report is dated August 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,245.0, down 3.00%. The sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties saw a correction. The overall mine - end inventory decreased, and clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On August 13, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,737.0, down 2.83%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented on the spot side. Market sentiment was volatile. The raw - material inventory increased. The current hot - metal output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. The hot - metal output was at a high level, and the coal - mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking - coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1,245.00 yuan/ton, down 68.00 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1,737.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan [2] - JM futures - contract holding volume was 920,978.00 lots, down 56,561.00 lots; J futures - contract holding volume was 54,194.00 lots, down 227.00 lots [2] - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 115,590.00 lots, down 32,614.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6,516.00 lots, down 12.00 lots [2] - JM January - September contract spread was 144.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; J January - September contract spread was 77.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan [2] - Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,011.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Russian main - coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.00 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Australian imported main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - JM main - contract basis was 75.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan; J main - contract basis was - 72.00 yuan/ton, up 75.00 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The clean - coal output of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 26.40 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the clean - coal inventory of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 297.00 million tons, up 8.90 million tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the raw - coal output was 42,107.40 million tons, up 1,779.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3,560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2] - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2] - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2] - The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2] - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - The output of coking coal was 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34% [2] - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2] - The crude - steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] Industry News - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to limit production from August 16 - 25 by 30%, from August 26 - September 3 by 50%, and resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 4.1 million tons. The current operation rate of this coking enterprise is 90% [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, in line with market expectations [2] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, false publicity, etc., and to reasonably arrange new production capacity [2] - China Evergrande announced that it will cancel its listing status on August 25, 2025 [2] - Guizhou Province issued measures to strengthen coal (mine) warehouse management, aiming to reduce the number of coal (mine) warehouses [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and the continuous release of cold - stored eggs, while the terminal demand is weak, leading to lower - than - expected spot prices and losses for the breeding end. However, with school - opening preparations and Mid - Autumn Festival purchases by food factories, demand may pick up and drive up egg prices. In terms of the futures market, near - month contracts tend to be weak under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3277 yuan/500 kilograms, down 34 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29606 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 297 yuan/500 kilograms, down 49 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 152862 lots, down 17593 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 246 yuan/500 kilograms, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - chicken breeding profit is - 0.31 yuan/chick, down 0.15 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 11.34 yuan/kg, down 0.42 yuan; the national culling age of chickens is 501 days, down 5 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.25 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.7 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.23 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.23 days, up 0.12 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.08 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7529 tons, down 368 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remains unchanged from the previous day. Currently, the laying - hen inventory is high, and the new - laying pressure of previously replenished laying hens is large, with sufficient egg supply. Cold - stored eggs are continuously leaving the warehouse, increasing the supply pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 玻璃方面，供应端：玻璃产线冷修数量减少1条，产量小幅增加，但是整体产量还在底部，刚需生产迹象明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-13 | 最新 环比 | | | | | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 环比 | | | | | 数据指标 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1383 169 | | | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1214 141 1217919 64009 | | | | | -26 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -167 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | | | | | 1023728 149431 纯碱前20名净持仓 -327717 37629 | | | | | 期货市场 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has significantly rebounded for three consecutive trading days, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time since March. Most industry sectors rose, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the banking sector leading the decline. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed that the CPI turned from a decline to an increase in July, and the core CPI increase has expanded for three consecutive months. The month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, with the PPI-CPI scissors gap narrowing slightly. The stabilization of domestic demand and the effectiveness of industrial policies have driven the month-on-month growth of PPI and CPI. In terms of sentiment, S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and the outlook at "stable". At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices have further increased based on the semi-annual reports of listed companies disclosed so far. In terms of funds, northbound capital transactions have been continuously active, and QFII has further increased its positions in A-share listed companies. Overall, the stabilization of prices has a repairing effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. Currently, the market focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all showing positive growth, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one must be vigilant against the drag on the index performance caused by the decline in the profits of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. At the same time, with the high valuation of US stocks, A-shares with relatively reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. Finally, S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating has also strengthened market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4170.8, up 42.2; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4181.2, up 40.0. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2818.8, up 9.8; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2818.0, up 9.2. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6451.8, up 113.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6505.8, up 100.6. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 7001.8, up 122.0; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 7064.2, up 113.4. Various spreads and differences between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions are -28,998.00, up 1645.0; IH top 20 net positions are -17,875.00, up 415.0; IC top 20 net positions are -16,519.00, up 255.0; IM top 20 net positions are -55,549.00, up 3154.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4176.58, up 32.8; SSE 50 is 2812.98, up 6.0; CSI 500 is 6508.10, up 89.9; CSI 1000 is 7064.33, up 100.7. A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 21,752.11, up 2700.00; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,345.33, up 83.35. Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2365.34, up 95.34 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) changed from -376.99 to -70.99. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 50.39, up 11.94. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged. IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 11.60, up 6.20; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, up 0.18. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 31.40, down 32.40; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, down 0.34 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 6.10, up 1.00; technical aspect score is 5.00, up 1.20; capital aspect score is 7.20, up 0.80 [2] 4. Key Data to be Focused on - China's July financial data (to be determined); US July PPI and core PPI on August 14 at 20:30; China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data on August 15 at 10:00 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises that previously cut production or shut down due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming production with improved market sentiment and "anti - involution" policies. Meanwhile, demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon to control costs. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend as the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and there will be no significant short - term decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 51,290 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan; the main contract position is 132,463 lots, down 3,592 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,355 yuan, up 550 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,690 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,113 tons, up 320 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece; the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to lithium industry chain enterprises to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, adhere to the principle of fair market competition, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity. In the polysilicon sector, some enterprises that previously cut production or shut down are resuming production as market sentiment improves and "anti - involution" policies are advanced [2]. Key Views - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises resume production, while demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the silicon wafer industry's operating rate decreases, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon. The polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to be volatile [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Raw material side: Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts nickel supply, raising costs, but increased nickel - iron production in Indonesia has led to a significant drop in nickel - iron prices, weakening cost support [3]. - Supply side: Steel mills' production profits have improved due to rising steel prices and relatively weak raw material cost increases. Steel production is expected to rise in August [3]. - Demand side: The end of the traditional off - season and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season, along with domestic fiscal policies, are expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Market purchasing willingness has recovered, and previous backlogs are being released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. Domestic inventory reduction has slowed, and spot premiums have remained stable [3]. - Technical side: With declining positions and price adjustments, differences between bulls and bears have increased. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support level. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The 09 - 10 contract spread is - 85 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,852 lots, down 474 lots. The main contract position is 144,226 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,518 tons, down 422 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 340 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. Total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons [3]. - Monthly imports of refined nickel and alloys are 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons. Monthly nickel - iron imports are 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons [3]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 925 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [3]. - Monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 592,900 tons, down 15,100 tons [3]. - Monthly stainless - steel exports are 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units [3]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Three departments announced a consumption subsidy policy with a 50,000 - yuan limit for single - item consumption [3]. - China and the US agreed to suspend a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - In July, the US CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year. The core inflation reached the highest level since February, mainly driven by service prices. Traders expect a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].