1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long term. The yields of 2 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.15 - 0.40bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 0.30 and 0.75bp to 1.80% and 2.15% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.49%. The central bank had a net investment of 20 billion yuan in the open - market treasury bond trading in October. Domestically, in October, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to an increase, the core CPI continued to rise, and the decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month. The official manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8% to 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI index was above the critical point, indicating stable overall production and business activities. Overseas, the US labor market cooled significantly, with a total decrease of 45,000 in ADP employment in the four weeks up to October 25th, increasing the risk of employment decline. Some Fed officials were worried about the current inflation risk, and there was still uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cut in December. Strategically, the central bank's treasury bond trading operations in October were prudent, but the bond - buying operations still sent a loose signal to the market. In the future, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of the loose fiscal policy still need a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to mainly purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds. In the short term, short - term interest rates are expected to continue to decline and may drive long - term interest rates down. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.520, up 0.02%; trading volume was 55,607, an increase of 3,414. TF main contract closing price was 105.970, up 0.03%; trading volume was 40,159, a decrease of 8,173. TS main contract closing price was 102.472, up 0.01%; trading volume was 20,087, a decrease of 8,335. TL main contract closing price was 116.450, up 0.09%; trading volume was 87,575, an increase of 14,105 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.25, up 0.00; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.93, down 0.11. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.23, down 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.55, down 0.01. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.03, down 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 6.05, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.05, down 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.50, down 0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions (Lots) - T main contract open interest was 221,517, T top 20 short positions were 258,268, down 4,032; T top 20 long positions were 289,384, up 2,893; T top 20 net short positions were 21,384, up 421. TF main contract open interest was 131,209, down 578; TF top 20 long positions were 131,595, down 73; TF top 20 short positions were 152,985, up 2,052; TF top 20 net short positions were 21,390, up 2,125. TS main contract open interest was 64,193, down 1,509; TS top 20 long positions were 67,227, down 230; TS top 20 short positions were 77,892, down 481; TS top 20 net short positions were 10,665, down 251. TL main contract open interest was 122,816, down 2,848; TL top 20 long positions were 134,404, down 1,327; TL top 20 short positions were 155,668, down 312; TL top 20 net short positions were 21,264, up 1,015 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.5906, up 0.0305; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.0257. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6143, up 0.0040; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0076. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.8937, up 0.0012; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.0485, up 0.0038. 210005.IB (17y) was 131.4275, up 0.1137; 210014.IB (18y) was 127.725, up 0.1134 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield was 1.4000%, up 0.50bp; 3 - year yield was 1.4350%, down 0.25bp. 5 - year yield was 1.5720%, down 0.80bp; 7 - year yield was 1.6950%, down 0.35bp. 10 - year yield was 1.8040%, down 0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.4279%, up 2.79bp; Shibor overnight rate was 1.4150%, down 9.30bp. 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5100%, unchanged; Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4740%, down 2.70bp. 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5550%, up 10.50bp; Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5000%, down 1.80bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 195.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 65.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 130 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. It was pointed out that social financing scale and money supply were more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, taking a key step to end the government shutdown [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The US October unadjusted CPI annual rate on November 13 and the US October PPI on November 14 are to be determined [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2601 contract fluctuated upwards. The Simandou project's production launch ceremony was held on November 11th. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but domestic port inventories increased for seven consecutive weeks. Pig iron output continued to decline, weakening demand support. Overall, in the short - term, due to the decline in shipments and arrivals and the reduction of short positions in mainstream holdings, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 774.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the position volume was 501,233 lots, down 29,119 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 26.5 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 24,760 lots, down 330 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.7 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.18 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 846 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 761 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 65 yuan, down 6 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.17, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 834 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,072.00, down 12.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.12 US dollars/ton, down 0.18 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.245 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.69%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.26%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.82%, down 1.65%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 17.28%, up 0.71% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions. The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report emphasized strengthening the consistency of macro - policy orientation and conducting counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The weekly output of rebar decreased and remained at a low level, with Xinjiang expected to reduce construction steel output by about 2 million tons during the winter shutdown period, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total construction steel output in Xinjiang in 2025. Terminal demand declined, but inventories have been falling for four consecutive weeks. Overall, the macro - environment shows positive signals, and there is an expectation of further contraction in construction steel output, causing steel prices to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that the centers of DIFF and DEA are moving up. The recommended operation is to go long on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the position volume was 1,868,036 hands, down 55,665 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 80,255 hands, up 14,373 hands; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was - 58 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 117,093 tons, down 5,119 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,313 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the RB main contract was 192 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. - China's monthly rebar output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. - The area of unsold commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Starting from 18:00 on November 12, 2025, Handan will launch a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around November 16. - Last week, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.2796 million square meters, down 26.6% month - on - month and 38.3% year - on - year; the total transaction area of second - hand housing (contract signing) was 2.0211 million square meters, down 4.8% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year [2].

对冲之后上周烯烃行业开工继续下降，短期山东恒通预期停车，西北、华东企业负荷预期上涨，本周开工 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 或小幅下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2060-2150区间波动。 甲醇产业日报 2025-11-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2108 | 26 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -103 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1407320 | -42441 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -250951 | 32740 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10819 | -141 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2065 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1992.5 | 5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 57.5 | 0 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the production and sales of enterprises are balanced. Although individual enterprises may have short - term production adjustments, the overall supply increase trend is hard to change. The demand from the float glass industry is poor, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry has weakened recently. Soda ash prices declined slightly today, and the decline may continue. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract at high prices in the short term [2]. - For glass, the cold - repair of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area in November has reduced short - term supply and supported prices. However, there are plans for production line restart and new line construction in the medium - and long - term, so supply pressure is increasing. The demand from the real estate market is still weak, and although the automobile glass market is stable and the photovoltaic glass market is a new growth point, they cannot fully offset the real - estate demand decline. Glass showed signs of stopping the decline today, but trading volume needs to be observed. It is recommended to pay attention to the glass main contract [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 165 yuan/ton, with a change of 3; glass main contract closing price: data not clearly presented. Soda ash main contract position: 1316241 lots, a decrease of 7969; glass main contract position: 2009725 lots, an increase of 21061. Soda ash top 20 net position: - 253236, a decrease of 23273; glass top 20 net position: - 343339, an increase of 1937. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 6999 tons, a decrease of 1315; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 498 tons, a decrease of 48. Soda ash basis: - 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16; glass basis: - 17, no change. The spread between January and May glass contracts: - 120, an increase of 11; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts: - 73, an increase of 4 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1170 yuan/ton, no change; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, no change. East China light soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, no change; Central China light soda ash: 1145 yuan/ton, no change. Shahe glass large plate: 1032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4; Central China glass large plate: 1140 yuan/ton, no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.67%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.92%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity: 15.91 million tons/year, a decrease of 0.21 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 222, a decrease of 4. Soda ash enterprise inventory: 170.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6313.6 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 265.4 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 453990000 square meters, an increase of 55979900 square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 311290000 square meters, an increase of 34354600 square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Many soda ash enterprises have production status changes, such as Henan Zhongyuan Chemical's stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan's production increase, and some enterprises' production reduction or load - adjustment. New production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu Chemical and others is expected to be put into operation in December, which will intensify the future supply - surplus situation [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is high, demand is weak, and the price decline may continue. Short at high prices in the short term. Glass: Short - term supply reduction supports prices, but medium - and long - term supply pressure increases. Demand from the real - estate market is poor, and the price showed signs of stopping the decline, but trading volume needs to be observed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of previously shut - down devices and considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. The agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate price concessions for transactions. The compound fertilizer's recent improvement in sales has led to a phased increase in its operating rate, and industrial demand has increased moderately. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to decline steadily or remain stable. The decline in urea enterprise inventory this week is mainly due to the implementation of new export policies, which have boosted the domestic trading atmosphere and improved the sales of urea enterprises. However, after the urea price increased, the new order transactions of factories slowed down, and the inventory of some enterprises rebounded. It is expected that urea enterprises will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1655 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 256,120 lots, with an increase of 2083 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38,603; the exchange warehouse receipts are 6958 sheets, with an increase of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu remain unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1610 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Shandong and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton and 1610 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port are 357.5 US dollars/ton and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 7.9 million tons, with a decrease of 3.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, with an increase of 238 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, with an increase of 2.39%; the daily urea output is 183,500 tons, with a decrease of 4400 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, with an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly urea output is 5.73867 million tons, with a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, remaining unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, with an increase of 3.22%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 83 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, with an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, with a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, with an increase of 1600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4836 billion tons, a decrease of 945 million tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. As of November 6, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 7.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons, a 28.18% decrease. As of November 6, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3545 billion tons, an increase of 392 million tons from the previous period, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 82.71%, an increase of 2.39% from the previous period, and the upward trend continues [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market opened lower today but rallied in the late session due to news, erasing previous losses and turning positive. It is expected to continue rising, but excessive chasing is not recommended. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 53,460 yuan/ton, up 1,530 yuan; the open interest was 140,617 lots, up 1,772 lots; the basis between December and January was 100 yuan, up 80 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 44,265 yuan/ton, up 1,515 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis was -1,520 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan; the average price of N-type silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon was 6.5 dollars/kg, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume was 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly output of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.91 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price was 2.35 dollars/ton, down 0.27 dollars [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 7,0873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry was 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 129,531,290 pieces, down 19,491,370 pieces; the monthly import volume was 14,733,770 pieces, down 6,706,520 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.3 dollars/piece, up 0.06 dollars [3] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that relevant work is progressing steadily, and rumors are false information. In the polysilicon sector, the dry season in Southwest China has increased power costs, squeezing production profits and leading to production cuts. The downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remains weak, with component tender prices falling and many projects postponed or shelved [3] Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]