表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macroeconomically, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the US economy is slowing, making short - term interest rate cuts a possible policy option. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories declined; hot metal and key steel mills' crude steel daily output decreased. Overall, the short - term market is mixed, the position of the September contract continues to shrink as it approaches delivery, and the market may enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position was 335,365 lots, down 22,928 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 4,804 lots, up 6,732 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,900 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at $102.2/ton at 15:00, up $0.40 [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 36 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was $101.20/ton, down $0.45. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.32, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,994, up 73. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.87/ton, up $0.23; from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.15/ton, up $0.50 [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.43%, down 3.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.90%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.76%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintering powder of 114 steel mills was 2,756.28 million tons, a decrease of 74.41 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintering powder was 116.14 million tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.73, a decrease of 0.74 from the previous period. In July, China imported 10,462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 69,656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation where supply is slightly reduced, demand may recover to some extent, industry inventory is slightly depleted but still at a high level overall, and more effective demand is needed to drive the industry to reduce inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has its double - lines near the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 183,045 hands, down 9,957 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 289,832 hands, up 32,062 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,300 yuan/ton, down 1,540 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GFE are 15,023 hands/ton, up 580 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,200 yuan/ton, down 2,530 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.03 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 126,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 7,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 64.46%, up 1.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 47.10%, up 0.40 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 354,616 contracts, up 6,570 contracts; the total put position is 142,725 contracts, up 7,671 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of the total position is 40.25%, up 1.4443 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.36%, up 0.0512 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in China increased by 1.86% month - on - month and 59% year - on - year, with an industry operating rate of 57%. The operating rate of leading material manufacturers increased significantly, but the output of some small and medium - sized manufacturers decreased slightly due to the demand fluctuations of downstream battery cell manufacturers. The output of SMM ternary materials continued to grow, rising 5.75% month - on - month and 16.65% year - on - year, and the overall industry operating rate rebounded to 45%. The output of cathode materials increased in July, indicating that the terminal peak - season stocking may be approaching. The output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China increased by about 3.9% month - on - month and about 32.9% year - on - year in July 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level. The newly - opened production pressure of the hens supplemented earlier is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Meanwhile, terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather increases egg consumption substitutes, leading to low market demand for eggs. Farmers' willingness to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations. After a previous low - level rebound, the price has recently declined again, and farming has fallen into losses again. [2] - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to recover, which may drive up egg prices. [2] - For near - month contracts, after a continuous decline, the stop - profit exit at low levels has boosted the market to rebound. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3391 yuan/500 kilograms, with a change of 2092; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 29913 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 185 yuan/500 kilograms; the futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 202802 hands, a decrease of 5713 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 17 hands. [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.88 yuan/jin, with a decrease of 0.01; the basis (spot - futures) is - 513 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 23. [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (monthly, 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (monthly, 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.03; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (monthly, 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02; the egg - laying hen farming profit is - 0.16 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.1; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.48; the national culled - hen age is 501 days, a decrease of 5. [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 20.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.22; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.11 days, an increase of 0.07; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, an increase of 0.1; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7897 tons, a decrease of 135 tons. [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.65 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. [2] Key Focus - There is no news today. [2]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 50110 | -1235 多晶硅11-12价差 | -3220 | -85 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 136324 | -2072 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 41455 | -1190 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -3110 | 1235 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8655 | -45 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-08-07 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui [3] - Qualification Number: Futures practice qualification number F03123381, Futures investment consulting practice certificate number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term, light - position long positions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,795 US dollars/ton, a rise of 45 US dollars/ton. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,961 lots, an increase of 4,545 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 61,724 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,305 tons. The LME inventory was 89,225 tons (daily), a decrease of 3,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,510 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,660 yuan/ton, a rise of 240 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 9.79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.37 US dollars/ton. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,030 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 45,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), an increase of 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 87,300 tons (weekly), an increase of 3,000 tons. [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 130,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles (monthly), an increase of 166,600 vehicles. The air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units (monthly), an increase of 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 8.93% (daily), a decrease of 0.4%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.33% (daily), a decrease of 0.24%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Modi is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US, such as Apple and TSMC, are exempted. - The differences in the US - Japan trade agreement continue, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for tin investment, with an expected price range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for shock adjustment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,230 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 24,776 lots, up 57 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures is 128 lots, down 65 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 1,755 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 365 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warrants are 7,332 tons, down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,190 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan [3] - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [3] - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Modi plans to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit [3] - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies like Apple and TSMC that build or promise to build factories in the US [3] - The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on existing tariffs [3] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might signal a turning point in the US economy [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to factors like enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates [3] - After the PV industry's rush to install ended, some producers' operating rates declined; the electronics industry is in a slow season, and the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors adds to the pressure. Downstream enterprises are in a traditional consumption slow season with few orders [3] - The current high prices suppress downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment sentiment. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has slightly increased [3] - Technically, with low open interest, both bulls and bears are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the gradual restart of maintenance devices, and the negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, with both device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The 509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,535 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract is 26,456 (yuan/ton, the unit seems inconsistent here, might be a mistake in the original text), down 1,631; the 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions are between 11,550 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 66.89 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.35 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 581.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, down 0.81 dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,400 tons, up 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2509 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, former US President Trump criticized Powell again for delaying interest - rate cuts and said a new Fed chair might be announced soon. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and domestic port inventories declined. Hot metal production decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, iron ore still has demand support, but there is technical pressure around 800, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 794.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the position volume was 358,293 lots, down 26,208 lots. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,536 lots, up 4,646 lots. - The DCE warehouse receipts of I were 3,900 lots, up 300 lots. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 101.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.52 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 7 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 34 yuan, down 3 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 101.65 US dollars/ton, up 1.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.34, up 0.02. - The estimated import cost was 835 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,921.00, down 49.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.64 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.61 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.70%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.95%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.42%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.77%, down 0.19 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of Monday (August 4), the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14,310.97 million tons, an increase of 29.24 million tons compared with the previous Monday. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,284.0 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory continued to decline, and the current absolute inventory is at a relatively low level since the third quarter [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,096.00 | +78.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,908.00 | +192.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 626,557.00 | +13775.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 461,794.00 | +37363.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -95,302.00 | -5787.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -25,418.00 | +9433.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 98.00 | +6.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 160.00 | +20.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 77,190.00 | -105.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 21,890.00 | -40.00↓ | | ...