不锈钢产业日报 2025-11-04 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 仓减量价格下跌，多空交投分歧，下行通道趋势，下方关注12400位置支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 高轻仓做空。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12545 | -85 12-01月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -65 | -10 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -58 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, the two - lakes region's new - season soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and downstream demand is picking up. However, due to high prices and competition from the Huanghuaihai region, the price increase is limited. The soybean No. 1 2601 contract fell 0.9%, and short - term market is expected to be stable [2]. - For soybean No. 2, influenced by the strong performance of US soybeans, imported soybeans are running strongly. The market anticipates China to expand its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans after the Sino - US trade negotiation [3]. - For soybean meal, although domestic inventory is relatively high and supply is sufficient, due to cost support, oil mills are inclined to support prices, leading to a strong - fluctuating market [3]. - For soybean oil, domestic supply is abundant, demand is weak, and if China significantly increases soybean imports from the US as expected, the supply gap in Q1 will be filled, making the short - term market under pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures main contracts were 4055 yuan/ton, 3725 yuan/ton, 3015 yuan/ton, and 8108 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and - 2 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 251451 lots, 137116 lots, 1587968 lots, and 480655 lots respectively, with changes of - 6995 lots, + 4702 lots, - 7077 lots, and - 2668 lots [2]. - **Net Buying Volume of Top 20 Holders**: The net buying volumes of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 741 lots, - 4033 lots, - 620755 lots, and - 136972 lots respectively, with changes of + 1105 lots, + 2611 lots, - 7830 lots, and - 3962 lots [2]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 10088 lots, 400 lots, 42152 lots, and 27644 lots respectively, with changes of + 2700 lots, + 400 lots, - 180 lots, and 0 lots [2]. - **CBOT Futures Settlement Prices**: The settlement prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil active contracts were 1134.25 cents/bushel, 320.8 dollars/short - ton, and 49.84 cents/pound respectively, with changes of + 19 cents/bushel, - 0.8 dollars/short - ton, and + 1.16 cents/pound [2]. Spot Prices - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The domestic soybean spot price was 3920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang were 8310 yuan/ton, 8380 yuan/ton, and 8430 yuan/ton respectively, up 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton; the soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Import Costs**: The import costs of US Gulf soybeans and Brazilian soybeans were 4119 yuan/ton and 4016 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 101 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The annual US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the US soybean ending inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons; the Brazilian soybean production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the Brazilian soybean ending inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - **Inspection and Export**: The weekly soybean inspection volume was 39165 thousand bushels, down 15239 thousand bushels; the weekly soybean export volume was 512379 tons, down 324743 tons; the monthly Brazilian soybean export volume was 7120000 tons, up 370000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory and Import**: The daily port inventory of imported soybeans was 8048790 tons, down 125350 tons; the weekly soybean meal inventory was 1054600 tons, up 78400 tons; the daily national port inventory of soybean oil was 1234000 tons, up 29000 tons; the monthly soybean import volume was 12869100 tons, up 590400 tons [2]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: The weekly oil mill operating rate was 65.13%, up 5.54 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2367400 tons, up 201200 tons [2]. - **Related Product Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 9880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the daily soybean - palm oil spread was - 190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2617.37 yuan/ton, up 17.37 yuan/ton; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 432.63 yuan/ton, down 7.37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sales Volume and Profit**: The weekly soybean meal sales volume of oil mills was 616000 tons, up 65600 tons; the weekly soybean oil sales volume of oil mills was 111100 tons, up 32300 tons; the daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 73.9 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 71.4 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Production**: The annual total domestic soybean consumption in China was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China was 18800 thousand tons, up 900 thousand tons [2]. - **Livestock - related Data**: The daily price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.17 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 192.7 yuan/head, up 72.5 yuan/head; the monthly feed production was 31287000 tons, up 2015000 tons; the monthly pig inventory was 43680000 heads, up 1233000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4035000 heads, down 3000 heads [2]. Option Market - For soybean meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.92%, up 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.92%, up 0.3 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 12.32%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.3%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean season reached 47% of the expected area, accelerating from 36% the previous week but significantly behind 54% of the same period last year [2] - According to the average estimate of nine analysts, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91% as of last Sunday [2] - In the domestic spot market, the storage capacity is nearly saturated, soybean acquisition is difficult, prices remain high, and farmers are reluctant to sell [2]

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 升。MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2180区间波动。 免责声明 甲醇产业日报 2025-11-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -28 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -110 | -14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1410422 | 9856 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -232474 | 20185 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11447 | -160 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2075 | -15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1980 | -25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 110 | -40 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -40 | 13 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 244 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure of pure benzene is at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance capacity of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene in November and continuous inflow of low - priced overseas sources. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to increase month - on - month as the load of East China petroleum benzene devices rises and some shutdown hydrogenated benzene devices restart. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream consumption is difficult to grow, with downstream devices expected to maintain low - level operation. The short - term BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with technical attention on the previous low support around 5430 and the previous high pressure around 5640 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 5438 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the main settlement price is 5466 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main trading volume is 9882 lots, an increase of 1859 lots; the main open interest is 16566 lots, an increase of 37 lots [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic market, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 5438 yuan/ton, in the South China market is 5420 - 5450 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan), in the North China market is 5230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), and in the Northeast region is 5215 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu is 5425 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and in Shanxi is 4900 yuan/ton. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 663 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars), and the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 681.23 US dollars/ton (up 3.94 US dollars) [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 66.13 US dollars/barrel, up 0.4 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 582.38 US dollars/ton, up 1.88 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 42.89 million tons, up 0.28 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 8.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The total开工率 of styrene is 66.72%, down 2.53 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 1.37% to 74.10%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 7.79% to 55.67%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.22% to 72.18%. As of November 3rd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 42.35% to 12.1 million tons. From October 25th to 31st, the profit of petroleum benzene decreased by 217 yuan/ton to 168 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the Henan peanut - producing area, after the weather improved, due to the busy farming season at the grass - roots level, the supply of wheat - stubble peanuts last week was still limited, and the progress of new peanut harvesting and drying was slow. Farmers were reluctant to sell dry and high - quality peanuts at low prices. On the demand side, the operating rate of oil mills across the country was low, some large oil mills had not started operation, the demand from downstream food enterprises was flat, and traders mostly purchased according to their own will, with no obvious market demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price: 7,812 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] - Peanut main contract trading volume: 44,455 lots, down 24,730 lots [2] - Peanut main contract open interest: 165,434 lots, down 3,033 lots [2] - Peanut exchange warehouse receipts: 0 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in peanut futures: - 19,225 lots, up 4,446 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Main circulation price of oil - used peanuts: 7,565.6 yuan/ton, up 15.6 yuan [2] - National average price of peanuts: 7,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] - Imported Sudan refined peanut price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Henan common peanuts price: 7,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - Shandong common peanuts price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Estimated peanut production in China: 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons [2] - Global peanut production forecast: 51.74 million tons, up 70,000 tons [2] - Estimated peanut harvest area in China: 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate of sample oil mills: 10.28%, up 2.42 percentage points [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut kernels: 34,590 tons, up 8,130 tons [2] - Peanut inventory of sample oil mills: 41,865 tons, up 6,710 tons [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut kernels: 10,390 tons, up 400 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Henan: 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Global peanut ending inventory forecast: 4.21 million tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Shandong: 124.75 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan [2] - Global peanut crushing volume forecast: 19.37 million tons, up 100,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Factory price of first - grade peanut oil: 14,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut oil: 36,409.04 tons, up 5,236.53 tons [2] - Price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil: 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut oil: 826.94 tons, down 470.98 tons [2] - Price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong: 5,880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong: 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Peanut oil - meal ratio: 4.24, unchanged [2] - Annual forecast of peanut oil production: 3,491,600 tons, unchanged [2] - Global peanut oil production forecast: 6.32 million tons, up 40,000 tons [2] - Global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil: 6.24 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 11.35%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 8.63%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: 11.54%, unchanged [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 12.23%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 30, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 41,865 tons, an increase of 6,710 tons or 19.09% from the previous week [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Oscillating bearish, pay attention to risk control" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract increased positions and declined. Tariff disturbances affected market sentiment, cost - side support weakened, mainstream positions continued to increase short positions, and futures prices were under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA broke below the 0 - axis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the position volume was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 113,052 lots, a decrease of 19,611 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt report of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 142,842 tons, a decrease of 1,798 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 206.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons. The inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.00%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, an increase of 1.21%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, a decrease of 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 13.90%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, a decrease of 0.90%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, a decrease of 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 55.98 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, an increase of 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 4th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, some areas in Henan may face moderate to severe pollution risks. Luoyang, Jiaozuo, Jiyuan and other places in Henan launched a heavy - pollution weather orange (Level Ⅱ) early - warning response at 0:00 on November 4th, with the lifting time to be notified later. The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continued to block rare - earth exports, the US might impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that the results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur fully demonstrated that dialogue and cooperation were the correct approaches, and threats and pressure were not helpful in solving problems. The China - EU export - control dialogue and consultation was held in Brussels, and both sides had in - depth and constructive communication on issues of mutual concern in the field of export control. They agreed to continue communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 4, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5754, down 0.72%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5550, down 20 yuan/ton. The inventory is rising rapidly, the output continues to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has risen for 4 consecutive weeks. The iron - making enthusiasm on the demand side has declined. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 160 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 260 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On November 4, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5510, down 0.29%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5260, down 10 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the short - term cost is supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 310 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 510 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5,754.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5,510.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 557,176.00 lots, up 19,415.00 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 341,576.00 lots, up 13,219.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 49,641.00 lots, up 6,589.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 35,700.00 lots, up 4,477.00 lots [2]. - The price difference between SM's May - January contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the price difference between SF's May - January contracts was 74.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - SM's warehouse receipts were 10,818.00 pieces, up 798.00 pieces; SF's warehouse receipts were 5,182.00 pieces, up 673.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,646.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; SF's main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. - SM's main contract basis was - 204.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 442.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 42.99%, down 0.05%; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.08%, up 0.52% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 207,725.00 tons, up 315.00 tons; ferrosilicon supply was 113,200.00 tons, down 900.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 314,500.00 tons, up 21,500.00 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory was 71,990.00 tons, up 5,430.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 124,492.00 tons, up 1,809.00 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,275.30 tons, up 339.40 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - Crude steel output was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [2]. - The central bank renewed a bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea, with a swap scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won and a validity period of five years [2]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. adjusted its production - capacity target from "80 - 100 million tons" to "over 80 million tons", focusing more on tapping the value of existing assets [2]. - Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have helped increase new orders and shipments of urea factories. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. With appropriate follow - up from downstream reserves, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1640 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 272,271 lots, up 2,518 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 27,015, up 2,461; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,900, up 2,445 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 377.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. Enterprise inventory decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. The urea enterprise operating rate increased by 2.29% to 80.32%, and the daily output increased by 5,300 tons to 187,900 tons. Urea exports increased by 570,000 tons to 1,370,000 tons, while the monthly output decreased by 190,010 tons to 5,738,670 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased by 3.33% to 31.04%, and the melamine operating rate increased by 1.68% to 49.98%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer decreased by 651,500 tons to 4,661,800 tons, and the weekly output of melamine increased by 1,300 tons to 25,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. As of October 30, the port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased by 2.29% to 80.32% [2] Viewpoint Summary - Some previously suppressed demand has been released, and some reserve demand has followed up, increasing new orders and shipments of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased last week, and it is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly and stably this week [2][3] Tips for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share third - quarter reports showed good overall performance, providing bottom support for the market. However, the decline in domestic manufacturing prosperity in October may suppress the subsequent market trend. There is a situation of "good news exhausted" after the Sino - US summit, and the RMB exchange - rate pressure restricts the loose monetary policy. It is recommended to wait and see for the moment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All major and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed a downward trend. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2512) was 4589.0, down 41.2 from the previous period. The spreads between different varieties and different quarters also changed, with some widening and some narrowing. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1594.8, down 33.8 [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased. The net position of the top 20 in IF was - 25,348.00, down 1949.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 4618.70, down 34.7. The basis of the main contracts also changed, mostly showing a downward trend [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume decreased to 19,383.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 1945.09 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 83.61 billion yuan to 24,947.63 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume decreased, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 29.92%, down 35.03 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital - related indicators all showed a downward trend. The overall A - share market was at 3.50, down 3.00 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points. As of October 31, the total revenue of A - share listed companies in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The profit growth rate in the third quarter reached 11.30%, up 10.19 percentage points from the second quarter [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Focus On - Upcoming events include the Australian central bank's interest - rate decision on November 4 at 11:30, the US ADP employment data for October on November 5 at 21:15, China's trade data for October on November 7 at 9:30, and China's CPI and PPI for October on November 9 at 9:30 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a significant accumulation trend, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment, so they are more cautious about high - priced raw materials, resulting in a weak purchasing sentiment. The general trade warehouse's出库 is less than expected, leading to an inflection point in the total inventory accumulation in Qingdao. In terms of demand, the domestic tire enterprise capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, and most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,875 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 140,178 lots, up 1,385 lots; the positions of the main 20 - rubber contract are 62,961 lots, up 35,217 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 29,182 lots, up 992 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - rubber are - 11,000 lots, down 778 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 120,080 tons, down 550 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 46,571 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 325 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,004 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 1,044 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.4 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 44.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.01 days, down 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.82 days, down 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.01%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.68%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.32%, up 0.24 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, an increase of 3.57%. The bonded area inventory is 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory is 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2]