Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating short - term market supply pressure. Coupled with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the expectation of price increases among farmers has been released, driving the low - priced eggs to rebound. In terms of the futures market, affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and the high inventory, the near - month contracts have fallen again, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline, so it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3,576 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 52 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 37,914 lots, a decrease of 5,551 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 78 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 32 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 251,316 lots, an increase of 11,597 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.13 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 317 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 76 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59; the average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - hatched chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.06 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.41 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.28 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.68 yuan; the national average age of culled hens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8,032 tons, an increase of 146 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.33 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.34 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan [2]

新进展。L2509日度K线关注7300附近支撑。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 季度投产压力仍偏高。下游棚膜需求季节性回升，但多数企业接单仍平淡；日化、食品包装膜需求持续； 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 预计下游开工率拐点于8月上旬到来。成本方面，当前正处美国夏季出行旺季，但OPEC+增产及美国关税政 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 策给到原油价格压力，预计国际油价震荡走势。宏观方面，美欧关税达成协议，后市关注中美关税谈判最 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7335 | -121 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7400 | -104 | | | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For the corn market, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to a good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, after traders sold their grains, their inventories tightened, and they still preferred to hold prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions increased slightly this week, the actual trading volume was limited, and the delivery speed was not as expected, failing to form large - scale effective supply. However, the deep - processing profit was under pressure, the enterprise operation rate was low, and feed enterprises' inventories were relatively safe, so the price increase momentum was insufficient, and the price generally maintained a narrow - range adjustment. [2] - For the corn starch market, affected by continuous production losses, the industry operation rate remained at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure weakened significantly. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets was poor, and the downstream demand was in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation was still loose. Recently, the starch price rebounded at a low level, and short - term observation was recommended. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 805,560 lots, down 46,546 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 21,284 lots, down 9,284 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 167,879 lots, down 1,992 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 364 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 173,432 lots, down 17,087 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,119 lots, down 8,297 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 6,599 lots, down 3,485 lots. [2] - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 419 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total open interest was 1,470,395 contracts, down 28,569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was - 129,457 contracts, up 12,305 contracts. [2] Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2407.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn was 1993.27 yuan/ton, up 3.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract was 88.84 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2680 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 356 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat was 2440.94 yuan/ton, down 3.62 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 175 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual corn production in the US was 401.85 million tons, in Brazil was 131 million tons, in Argentina was 53 million tons, in China was 295 million tons, and in Ukraine was 30.5 million tons, all unchanged. [2] - Sown area: The predicted annual sown area of corn in the US was 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil was 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina was 7.5 million hectares, and in China was 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged. [2] - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports was 26.9 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports was 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory was 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons. [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. [2] - Processing profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 114 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; in Hebei was - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days were 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption was 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons. [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operation rate was 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise operation rate was 45.46%, down 4.83%. [2] Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.75%, up 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.44%, down 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.44%, down 0.48%. [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the 2024/25 corn harvest progress in Argentina was 84.0%, 5.1% higher than a week ago, 2.6% lower than the same period last year, but 6.7% higher than the five - year average. [2] - As of July 24, Ukraine had harvested 3.236 million hectares of grains (including legumes), accounting for 29% of the planned area, with a harvest output of 10.347 million tons and an average yield of 3.2 tons per hectare. [2] - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operation and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic caustic soda plants are still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for复产, and there is still some room for the alumina operating rate to rise. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, with weak demand. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 2470 and the pressure around 2700 on the daily K - line of SH2509 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, and the futures trading volume decreased by 277186 hands to 752433 hands. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May decreased by 72 yuan/ton and 77 yuan/ton to 2629 yuan/ton and 2689 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region remained unchanged at 2593.75 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of steam coal remained unchanged at 638 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton [1]. Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina remained unchanged at 12940 yuan/ton and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. As of July 24th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [1]. Viewpoint Summary - The capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants is expected to continue to rise. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The alumina operating rate has room to rise, while non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous policy - driven market sentiment has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day. EB2509 dropped 1.97% to close at 7,358 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene market maintains a high - production state. Supply has increased, with last week's styrene output rising 0.67% to 361,100 tons and capacity utilization up 0.54% to 78.84%. Demand has also improved, with downstream EPS, PS, ABS consumption increasing 2.65% to 243,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 1.46% to 205,300 tons, while the East China port inventory increased 8.81% to 150,700 tons and the South China port inventory decreased 2.04% to 19,200 tons. The styrene market is expected to maintain a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Next week, styrene production and capacity utilization are expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The improvement in downstream consumption may not be sustainable due to weak terminal demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the future. The cost support is limited, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the latest progress of China - US tariff negotiations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,358 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan; the trading volume was 431,585 lots, down 208 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 295,650 lots, down 21,424 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 23,626 lots, up 8,903 lots; the short position of the top 20 holders was 344,836 lots, down 53,457 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 1,900 lots, up 400 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 910 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 920 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions showed variations: Northeast was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; South China was 7,555 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; North China was 7,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 7,540 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene in different regions were: CFR Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 842.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene also varied: Taiwan's CIF price was 763.83 US dollars/ton, up 26.33 US dollars; US Gulf's FOB price was 284 cents/gallon, unchanged; Rotterdam's FOB price was 755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets were: South China was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 6,095 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; North China was 6,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 205,283 tons, down 3,036 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rates of downstream products changed: EPS was 55.21%, up 2.03%; ABS was 66.82%, up 0.92%; PS was 51.6%, up 1; UPR was 28%, unchanged; styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.8%, up 0.72% [2]. 5. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's styrene factory output was 361,100 tons, up 2,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,800 tons, up 6,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of July 24th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 205,300 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [2].

瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本方面，当前正处美国夏季出行旺季，但OPEC+增产及美国关税政策给到原油价格压力，预计国际油价震 免责声明 荡走势。宏观方面，美欧关税达成协议，后市关注中美关税谈判最新进展。短期BZ2603预计宽幅震荡。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯苯产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6251 | -136 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6296 | -30 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment driven by previous policies has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day, with V2509 dropping 2.68% to close at 5,149 yuan/ton [3]. - In the supply side, last week's PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.80% week - on - week. With the completion of most domestic PVC maintenance in July, and some restarting and continuous shutdown of certain plants next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly, and the new capacity load is gradually increasing, intensifying future supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, it is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, with only rigid procurement. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand transmission [3]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply of calcium carbide will exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; the ethylene fundamentals change little, and the price may fluctuate slightly [3]. - From a macro perspective, the EU - US tariff agreement has been reached, and the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations should be monitored. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support around 5,100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan; the trading volume was 2,133,221 lots, an increase of 269,370 lots; the open interest was 818,506 lots, a decrease of 41,811 lots [3]. - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 744,296 lots, a decrease of 6,830 lots; the short positions were 758,920 lots, an increase of 11,247 lots; the net long positions were - 14,624 lots, a decrease of 18,077 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,173.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.69 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.88 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC was - 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,581.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.79%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 70.27%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 42.7 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons; the inventory in East China was 37.82 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons; the inventory in South China was 4.88 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6 (with 2012 as the base year of 100), a decrease of 0.12 [3]. - The cumulative completed area of real estate construction was 633,321.43 million square meters; the cumulative new construction area was 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 30,364.32 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.52%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.62%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 27.93%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 27.91%, an increase of 6.23 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 60 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 5,070 to 5,150 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [3]. - As of July 24th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 68.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.23% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 106,213 lots, down 251 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,439 lots, down 1,861 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 59,959 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, up 6,175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.27 dollars/ton, up 0.94 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,200 tons, down 2,900 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, up 23.22 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,760.4 points, down 11.52 points. The monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles; the monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU: imposing a 15% tariff on the EU, with 600 billion dollars of EU investment in the US, the EU implementing a 0% tariff on the US, and the EU buying US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products. However, the US and the EU have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Trump is considering reaching agreements with three or four other countries. The US Commerce Secretary said the August 1 tariff increase deadline will not be extended, and the US will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks. US officials said Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. This week is a super central bank week, and the result of the Fed's interest - rate meeting should be noted [2] 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Primary lead smelters' operating rates decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in output. Although the current primary lead operating rate is still stronger than that of recycled lead and its by - product revenue is stable, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. The resumption of production is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream buyers are still waiting and watching. The slow destocking of distributors restrains the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the increase in warehouse receipts reflects the slowdown in overall demand [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1100.50 | -158.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1608.50 | -154.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 770883.00 | -151239.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52357.00 | -2371.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86983.00 | -45768.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5324.00 | +1338.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 79.50 | +20.00↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 42.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 104 ...