塑料产业日报 2025-07-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -70 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7346 | -74 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | -80 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 313961 | -70212 持仓量(日,手) | 388381 | -5767 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 0 | 4 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 341150 | -12098 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 383471 | 4109 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -42321 | -16207 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7286.52 | 43.91 LLDPE(704 ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.520 | -0.11% T主力成交量 | 115034 | 3580↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.790 | -0.09% TF主力成交量 | 87176 | 2731↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.380 | -0.03% TS主力成交量 | 46570 | 1732↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 119.270 | -0.21% TL主力成交量 | 154682 | 2262↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.17 | +0.03↑ T09-TL09价差 | -10.75 | 0.06↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.02↑ TF09-T09价差 | -2.73 | 0.02↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | +0.00↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.14 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend, with the daily operating range estimated to be around 2570 - 2700. The supply - side policy利好 sentiment in the earlier stage has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The alumina operating capacity in China remains at a high level, and the amount of alkali sent to the main downstream by alkali plants has increased. The off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly for rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices. The utilization rate of production capacity is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited receiving capacity of the liquid chlorine downstream may drag down the profit of chlor - alkali and limit the upward space of the operating rate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2644 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the futures trading volume is 752433 lots, down 277186 lots; the futures holding volume is 189077 lots, down 19374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 7630 lots, up 4809 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2655 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2723 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda is - 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 637 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3215 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. From July 11th to 17th, the average utilization rate of production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, up 2.2% week - on - week. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), up 2.56% week - on - week and 1.78% year - on - year [1] Industry News - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity last week increased by 2.2% to 82.6%. The alumina operating rate increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, and the average profit of alumina was 360.7 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, but some areas in Xinjiang are at high risk of heat damage due to high - temperature weather. - The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the bullish factor of tight supply. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market is lackluster. Currently, it shows an adjustment trend. It is necessary to continuously monitor weather and macro factors. It is recommended to take profits and exit long positions opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,350 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,705 lots, down 306 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 447 lots, down 182 lots [2]. - The main - contract trading volume of cotton was 538,200 lots, down 15,967 lots; the main - contract trading volume of cotton yarn was 13,848 lots, down 1,269 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9,382, down 54; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 96, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,438 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,955 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit from imported cotton was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 109 million meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 58.3566 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.02%, down 0.55%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.59%, down 0.44% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, compared with 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract rose 0.25%, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.04%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 0.2%. Due to the upward revision of the US cotton crop rating and the forecast of rainfall in production areas, the US cotton futures price was under pressure. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. Today, industrial silicon prices rose and then fell, mainly because the downstream cannot absorb the high spot prices. Currently, industrial silicon inventory remains at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,525 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 380,961 lots, down 2,335 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,053 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was - 25 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 1,040 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 305,200 tons per month, up 5,500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons per week, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon imports were 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon exports were 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal production in key coal - producing provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. On the supply side of industrial silicon, the spot price has risen significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. The production cost in the Southwest has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but it has not met expectations in Nujiang and Dehong. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants for production, with no obvious increase in the overall operating rate [2] 3.7 Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the hog price weakens, the low price attracts secondary fattening entry, and the monthly - end slaughter rhythm may slow down again, supporting the short - term hog futures price to fluctuate higher. However, due to weak demand, the increase in the spot price is limited, which will drag down the upside space of the futures market. The short - term price is greatly affected by the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythm and may be volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 14,590 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the main contract position is 67,303 lots, up 7,482 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 284 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,804 lots, down 3,994 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 14,300 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and 15,700 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan) respectively. The main hog basis is - 290 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, down 1,0120,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, up 40,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,409.02 yuan/ton, down 0.88 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 950.02, up 0.49; the monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, up 981,000 tons; the weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, down 2 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.98 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, up 1390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 269,940 heads, down 0.01% from the previous day. The hog 2509 contract rose 1.67% on Wednesday. Supply in July - August may be affected by factors such as high disease incidence at the beginning of the year and growth slowdown due to high temperature. Currently, the slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased in the middle of the month, with a higher proportion of large hogs in the south, but there are many auction failures, and low prices attract secondary fattening inquiries. Demand is weak due to high temperature and school holidays, the slaughterhouse startup rate continues to decline but is higher than last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Summer seasonal fresh fruits replace red dates, leading to a seasonal off - peak in red date demand, slow inventory digestion, and high old - crop inventory. The new - season crop is at a critical fruiting stage, and the market focuses on the weather in producing areas. Some Xinjiang producing areas have relatively good growth of jujube trees, and the production reduction may be less than expected, but high - temperature weather in Xinjiang in the next few days requires attention to the second - crop flowers and fruits. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10595 yuan/ton, with a change of 105, and the main contract position is 132685 hands, an increase of 377 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures is - 3443 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts is 8912, with no change. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1448 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Henan is also 4.35 yuan/jin, with no change. The wholesale price of red dates in different regions such as Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu has no change, and the prices of special - grade and first - grade red dates in different regions also remain stable [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons compared to last week, a 1.05% decrease, and a 74.89% increase year - on - year. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1765107 kg, a decrease of 464120 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17115674 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8. The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36480.43 tons, a decrease of 2981.06 tons, and the cumulative quarterly production year - on - year is - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 23, the temperature in Aksu was 24 - 37°C, and jujube farmers were actively managing the fields. The jujube trees were in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The main red date 2601 contract rose 1.48% on Wednesday. The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10320 tons, a 1.05% decrease compared to the previous week and a 74.89% increase year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Corn - The excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. The initial growth excellent rate is good, with high output prospects, and international corn prices continue to face pressure [2]. - In the domestic market, the frequency and time of weekly auctions of imported corn are relatively fixed, but the auction transaction volume remains low, and the transaction premium is gradually decreasing. Due to the previous weak outlook of traders and panic selling, the supply of grain sources has increased temporarily. However, the deep - processing efficiency is poor, and some enterprises have suspended or limited production, leading to relatively limited procurement demand and a continuous decline in prices. Recently, as traders' selling speed is fast, the inventory of commercial grain has decreased significantly, and the sentiment of grain - holding entities to hold back sales has increased, resulting in a decreasing trend of grain supply. Some processing enterprises have rigid procurement needs, and the purchase price has strengthened slightly recently. The corn futures have maintained a low - level shock recently after the previous decline, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure has significantly weakened. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. As of July 23, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 131100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40%. The starch futures have rebounded recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 74 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 923031 lots [2]. - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 62 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 207954 lots, down 16277 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 20212 lots, up 1928 lots; for corn starch, it is - 19454 lots, up 885 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 175450 lots, down 207 lots; for corn starch, they are 11334 lots, down 800 lots [2]. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 354 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417.5 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel; total open interest is 1470395 contracts, down 28569 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 12305 contracts, down 129457 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2409.02 yuan/ton, down 0.88 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1993.7 yuan/ton, down 0.43 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the main corn contract is 88.02 yuan/ton, up 0.12 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream - The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 16 million hectares; the predicted output is 401.85 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares; the predicted output is 131 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; the predicted output is 53 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in China is 44.3 million hectares; the predicted output is 295 million tons [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. Industry - The corn inventory in southern ports is 838000 tons, down 48000 tons; in northern ports, it is 3.17 million tons, down 360000 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 4.27 million tons, down 166000 tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 131100 tons, down 3500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 160000 tons, down 30000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98100 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 31.34 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption is 1100500 tons, down 57300 tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 38.34%, down 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 45.46%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 151 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei, it is - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.68%, down 0.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress weekly report shows that the excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. As of July 13, the silking rate of US corn was 34%, up from 18% last week, lower than 39% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 33%. The dough stage ratio was 7%, up from 3% last week, the same as 7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].