Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core View - The current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large number of summer cooling fruits on the market impacts apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production restricts the price rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to controlling risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 7969 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93548 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 2518 hands. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5396 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 962 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 80.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.05, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.12, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 4330.8 million dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 1955488 - 245562.17 million dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market, it is 9.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market, it is 16.6 vehicles, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 16.22%, and that of at - the - money put options is 16.23%, with a day - on - day increase of 0.48% [2] Industry News - On July 24, 2025, the inventory trading in the western production areas is coming to an end, the listing volume of early - maturing fruits is still small, the transaction price remains stable, and the sales are okay. In the Shandong production area, the trading of fruit farmers' goods is a bit chaotic, some fruit farmers are eager to sell, the market is stable but weak, and most of the merchants' goods are self - shipped, with a general sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed up 0.25% on Thursday. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary forecast of the national apple production in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas is 70.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%, and the inventory removal speed is average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area is 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%, and the sales are slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area is 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales are sporadic [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract rebounded but faced pressure. Macroscopically, a Sino - US economic and trade talk is scheduled. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, domestic port inventory increased, and steel mill blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production recovered. Recently, the market has been trading on the upward expectation, but with the sharp rise in ore prices, there may be a short - term correction. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the I2509 contract shows a high - level callback. Operationally, short - term intraday trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume is 562,835 hands, down 17,104 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 27.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,962 hands, down 3,302 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,100.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 105.05 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 839 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 732 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The I main contract basis is 28 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.34, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 854 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, unchanged. The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 64.00%, up 1.17%. The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index is 2,120.00, up 85.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.59 US dollars/ton, up 0.74 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.60%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.62%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.88%, down 1.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.48%, down 0.43% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2,794.77 million tons, up 75.95 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 113.47 million tons, up 1.32 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.63, up 0.39 from the previous period. From July 14 - 20, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil is 1,424.5 million tons, up 31.5 million tons from the previous period, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and reached the peak since the beginning of the year [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to slow. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the main contract position was 336,274 lots, up 1,498 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,106 lots, up 53 lots; the spread between August and September industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 410 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar, it was proposed to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In the industrial silicon supply side, the fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, large enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns, the production cost in the Southwest has decreased, the resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but that in Nujiang and Dehong is below expectations, and the overall operating rate in Sichuan has not increased significantly [2] 3.7 Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased significantly, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is in a state of reduced load operation, downstream demand has declined significantly, and it is expected that production will be difficult to increase, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and demand for industrial silicon is difficult to boost [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon price increased due to rising coal and energy prices and the influence of the anti - involution conference, but it has deviated far from the fundamentals. If the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. With the possible addition of delivery brands by the exchange, the price may return to the mean. It is recommended not to chase the upward trend and suggests temporary observation or laying out put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,685 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 172,564 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,923 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon is 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,075 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,520 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 46,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 975 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no month - on - month change. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 26.63, with a month - on - month increase of 4.34 [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar on July 24, Yan Dazhou, the director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon has been continuously decreasing, and the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard per unit product of polysilicon is being promoted. The current first - level, second - level, and third - level comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon are ≤7.5 kgce/kg, 8.5 kgce/kg, and 10.5 kgce/kg respectively, and the revised corresponding standards are expected to be ≤5 kgce/kg, 6 kgce/kg, and 7.5 kgce/kg to eliminate backward production capacity [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing shutdown for maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution conference, production capacity declined significantly, but the price gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and the marginal demand has weakened. As the profits of silicon wafer enterprises stabilize, the overall decline in production is expected to end, and battery cell enterprises also have production reduction plans [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the opening rate of tire enterprises is expected to have little overall fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, after the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Heze Kexin, the domestic supply increment will gradually appear, and the inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the current production of enterprises tends to be stable, and orders in the middle and late ten - days are expected to increase slightly, which will still have a small driving effect on the overall opening [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 48,828, with a week - on - week increase of 237 [2]. - The spread between August and September of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber is 2,390 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,000 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton; the price of Brent crude oil is 65.25 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 68.51 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the opening rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The opening rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the opening rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2]. Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stabilizing, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,300 [2]. 2. Key Data Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,125 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 129,837 lots, up 658 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 66,552 lots, up 4,347 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,628 lots, up 3,059 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 12,345 lots, down 1,274 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 186,680 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 37,398 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,934 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 159 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 66.37 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 63.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 49.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.54%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.98%, down 3.81 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points [2]. 3. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. The bonded area inventory is 77,900 tons, a decline of 1.39%; the general trade inventory is 556,700 tons, a decline of 0.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 2.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.29 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.40 percentage points. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, due to rainfall, the supply of latex is scarce, and the purchase price remains firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather has improved, tapping operations have gradually resumed, and the supply of raw materials on the island has gradually increased seasonally. Driven by the strong futures and spot market, the enthusiasm of some processing factories to bid up the price of raw materials has continued to rise [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1785 | 12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 173791 | -7009 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -30835 | 5007 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | 34 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated downward, closing at 6,196 yuan/ton. - The production capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 78.05%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.51% week - on - week to 64.46%. - The downstream operating rates of pure benzene varied last week, and the weighted downstream operating rate changed little. - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased by 4.21% week - on - week to 171,000 tons. - The total production of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to decline slightly due to maintenance, and the volume of imported vessels is expected to increase. The spot supply of pure benzene may remain loose. - Some downstream shutdown devices will restart, and new downstream devices are planned to be put into production this month, so the demand is expected to increase. - Although there is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand of pure benzene, the supply still exceeds the demand overall, and the spot valuation is expected to remain low. - The short - term international oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in the US - EU tariff negotiation and OPEC+ output policy in September. - Pay attention to the support near 6,100 and the resistance near 6,300 on the daily K - line of BZ2603 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Main contract closing price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,196 | - 82 | | Main contract settlement price of pure benzene (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,222 | - 16 | | Main contract trading volume of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 14,798 | - 5,696 | | Main contract open interest of pure benzene (daily, lots) | 12,060 | - 1,625 | | Market price of pure benzene in East China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,020 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in North China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,860 | 0 | [2] Spot Market | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Market price of pure benzene in South China market (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,950 | 0 | | Market price of pure benzene in Northeast China (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,865 | 15 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton) | 6,025 | 75 | | Market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton) | 5,700 | 25 | | Spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (daily, US dollars/ton) | 735 | 4 | | Spot price of pure benzene in China (CFR, daily, US dollars/ton) | 750.5 | 4 | [2] Upstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot price of Brent DTD crude oil (daily, US dollars/barrel) | 69.77 | - 0.98 | | CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) | 566.38 | - 6.5 | [2] Industry Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Capacity utilization rate of pure benzene (weekly, %) | 78.14 | 0.13 | | Weekly output of pure benzene (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 43.52 | 0.35 | | Terminal inventory of pure benzene in ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) | 16.4 | - 1 | | Production cost of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 5,327.8 | - 118.2 | | Production profit of pure benzene (weekly, yuan/ton) | 737 | 76 | [2] Downstream Situation | Data Indicator | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Operating rate of styrene (weekly, %) | 78.3 | - 0.91 | | Capacity utilization rate of caprolactam (weekly, %) | 95.72 | 6.41 | | Capacity utilization rate of phenol (weekly, %) | 78.54 | - 0.46 | | Capacity utilization rate of aniline (weekly, %) | 69.24 | - 0.1 | | Capacity utilization rate of adipic acid (weekly, %) | 64.3 | 2 | [2] Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week to 590 yuan/ton. - As of July 21st, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 171,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.21% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,397 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 1.13% month-on-month to 358,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.91% month-on-month to 78.3%. On the demand side, last week's downstream operating rates varied; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.45% month-on-month to 237,500 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.66% month-on-month to 208,300 tons, East China port inventory increased by 8.81% month-on-month to 150,700 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 2.04% month-on-month to 19,200 tons. Currently, domestic styrene is still in a high-production state. This week, the impact of restarted plants will expand, and it is expected that production and capacity utilization will increase slightly. It is the off-season for terminal demand, and downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Benefiting from the decline in styrene prices, the profits of downstream "Three S" products have recovered; however, due to relatively weak demand, the high inventory of "Three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. In terms of cost, the US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, and Trump said that trade agreements have been reached with Japan and the Philippines. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; the supply and demand of pure benzene are expected to remain loose, providing limited support. Pay attention to the support around 7,310 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,570 yuan/ton on the daily K-line of EB2509 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,397 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the trading volume was 348,808 lots, down 52,691 lots; the open interest was 291,849 lots, up 7,196 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 342,487 lots, down 14,318 lots; the short positions were 368,314 lots, down 10,408 lots; the net long positions were -25,827 lots, down 3,910 lots. The closing price of the October contract was 7,367 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan. The spot price of styrene was 7,754 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 914 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 924 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars. The warehouse receipt quantity was 600 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the South China region, it was 7,670 yuan/ton; in the North China region, it was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in the East China region, it was 7,485 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 816 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 737.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 283 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 767 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the East China market, it was 6,020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.3%, down 0.91 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 208,319 tons, down 1,376 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rate of EPS was 53.18%, up 2.12 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 65.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 50.6%, down 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 28%, down 1 percentage point; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 73.08%, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - From July 11th to 17th, the total production of Chinese styrene factories was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.13%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.91%. From July 11th to 17th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 237,500 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% [2]