1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by multiple factors. Internationally, the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, with favorable rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which puts pressure on the market. The US soybean has a high - yield expectation despite a slightly lower - than - expected good rate. Domestically, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has led to a high oil - mill operating rate and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal, suppressing the price of the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally stronger than the overseas market and maintains a relatively strong operation [2]. - For rapeseed oil, globally, the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 and the significant increase in Indonesian exports, along with positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors, affect the global oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9456 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil is 53 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 314 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8215 lots, down 323 lots; for rapeseed meal are 34003 lots, down 6409 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 690 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar; that of domestic rapeseed futures is 5165 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price is 9690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2660 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.55, down 0.05. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 98 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual output of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted output of rapeseed in a certain region is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.05 yuan/ton, down 0.8 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 340,000 tons, up 100,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 287,900 tons, up 41,300 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92,500 tons, down 400 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 584,500 tons, down 8,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 351,300 tons, down 29,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 56,000 tons, down 3,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 270,000 tons, down 12,000 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 29,100 tons, down 3,800 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 23,200 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons, up 98,100 tons. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 45.782 billion yuan, up 4.112 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.88%, up 0.82 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.89%, up 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.54%, down 4.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.84%, down 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 10.75%, down 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.9%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the second consecutive day due to beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which supported the crop yield outlook. The benchmark November rapeseed futures closed 4.10 Canadian dollars lower at 690.00 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas was good, with a strong high - yield expectation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on the production situation in the future, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips while controlling risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is not specified in the table, the main contract's open interest is 7956 hands, a decrease of 1666 hands compared with the previous period; the apple warehouse receipt quantity is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4434 hands, a decrease of 1418 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged apples above 80 grade 2, farmer - sourced) is 4 yuan per jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 80.6 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 10.89 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.12, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.05, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan per kilogram, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan per kilogram; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59% [2] Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production area basically ended, with a small amount of remaining goods mainly sold by merchants for their own use, and the price was stable. The market for inventory apples in the Shandong production area was weak, the trading of farmer - sourced apples was slow, and purchasers pressured prices, resulting in many transactions at discounted prices. The early - maturing apples in the western production area continued to be listed, and the transaction price of varieties such as Yuncheng smooth - skinned Gala was basically the same as last year. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.73% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed improved slightly compared with the previous week, showing little difference compared with the same period last year. The Shandong production area's storage capacity ratio was 12.15%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed improved slightly. The Shaanxi production area's storage capacity ratio was 4.63%, a decrease of 1.09% compared with the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week. Overall, the current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the apple production situation [2]

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-07-23 [2] - **Report Date**: July 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to the drop in lead prices. Although the current operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong compared to secondary lead and the by - product revenue is stable, the supply of secondary lead is tight because of the shortage of scrap battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. If the tight supply of scrap batteries is not alleviated, the output of secondary lead will be difficult to increase significantly, which will continue to restrict the overall lead supply increment. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual situation is that the downstream is still waiting and watching, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. The overseas inventory of lead is rising, and the domestic inventory is rising slightly, with the warehouse receipts increasing and the overall demand slowing down. The overall impact from the perspective of lead concentrate processing is limited. The Shanghai lead price continues to fluctuate slightly, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,015 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots [3]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 1.77 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. - **Prices and Imports**: The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - **Imports and Exports**: The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3]. 3.5下游情况 - **Consumption - related Output**: The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 0.073 million [3]. - **Industry Index**: The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical appliances is 1,777.24 points, up 12.6 points [3]. 3.6行业消息 - **Tariffs**: The US Treasury Secretary said August 1st is a "relatively hard deadline" for all countries, and the EU trade negotiation is separate from the Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiation. Japan's negotiation is progressing smoothly. Canada is still considering the electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid being fully taxed by the US. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines will open its market to the US and implement zero - tariff [3]. - **White House vs. Fed**: The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and that there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the second quarter of 2025, Central Huijin bought large - scale exchange - traded funds (ETFs), with the total purchase amount exceeding 200 billion yuan. The LPR remained unchanged in July. A - share major indices mostly declined, and the trading volume decreased slightly. The real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail sales has weakened. However, financial data shows that the loose monetary policy has achieved some results, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the approaching of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, market bulls may make early arrangements. Central Huijin's ETF purchases also boost market confidence, and stock indices still have long - term upward potential. The strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - IF main contract (2509) price is 4109.2, up 12.6; IH main contract (2509) price is 2802.8, up 13.4. IC main contract (2509) price is 6120.0, up 8.2; IM main contract (2509) price is 6500.0, up 4.2. Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the differences between quarterly and current contracts of most varieties increased [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions are - 27,906.00, up 240.0; IH top 20 net positions are - 15,788.00, up 674.0; IC top 20 net positions are - 12,752.00, up 932.0; IM top 20 net positions are - 38,839.00, down 691.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices and Basis - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is 4119.77, up 0.8; the Shanghai 50 index is 2801.20, up 9.0; the CSI 500 index is 6196.76, down 16.7; the CSI 1000 index is 6607.22, down 29.9. The basis of most futures contracts has different changes [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 18,983.71 billion yuan, down 302.74 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 19,332.73 billion yuan, up 153.54 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 2414.97 billion yuan, up 328.02 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks is 23.44%, down 23.46 percentage points [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share index is 3.40, down 2.30; the technical index is 2.30, down 2.30; the capital index is 4.50, down 2.30 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the second quarter of 2025, Central Huijin bought large - scale ETFs. On July 21, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - July 24: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value; European Central Bank interest rate decision; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 and July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value. July 27: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in June [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Xu Yuhua [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - On July 23, the ferrosilicon 2509 contract closed at 5,832, up 0.90%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot price was reported at 5,610, up 110 yuan/ton. With a strong macro - expectation of an upcoming steel industry growth plan, low - level operation of production, a decline in Ningxia semi - coke price, and weak overall steel demand, the ferroalloy production profit is negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly upward trend [2] - On July 23, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,938, down 0.37%. The Inner Mongolia manganese silicon spot price was reported at 5,730, up 30 yuan/ton. Affected by the policy of optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity, coal prices have risen continuously. The manufacturer's operating rate has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, with a moderately high inventory. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the 4 - hour K - line has a large - volume negative close and decline. It should be treated as an oscillating trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,938 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the position was 578,273 lots, down 14,232 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 74,609 lots, down 3,160 lots; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 50 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 77,972, down 523 [2] - **Ferrosilicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5,832 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the position was 393,189 lots, down 848 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 35,969 lots, up 8,342 lots; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 84 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 22,150, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese Silicon**: The Inner Mongolia FeMn68Si18 price was 5,730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Guizhou FeMn68Si18 price was 5,670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yunnan FeMn68Si18 price was 5,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the weekly average of the manganese silicon index was 5,610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the SM main contract was - 208 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The Inner Mongolia FeSi75 - B price was 5,640 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Qinghai FeSi75 - B price was 5,430 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the Ningxia FeSi75 - B price was 5,610 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 222 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises was 40.53%, down 0.02%; the weekly supply was 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; the manufacturer's inventory (half - month) was 216,300 tons, down 4,500 tons; the national steel mill inventory (month) was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the demand of the five major steel types (weekly) was 123,381 tons, down 1,547 tons [2] - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.45%, up 1.25%; the weekly supply was 100,000 tons, up 1,300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory (half - month) was 63,500 tons, down 6,700 tons; the national steel mill inventory (month) was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days; the demand of the five major steel types (weekly) was 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%; the monthly crude steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and Indonesia will supply key minerals to the US and cancel 99% of tariff barriers [2] - Germany announced an investment initiative worth over 630 billion euros to boost the economy, with 61 enterprises participating, and the investment will be used for factory construction, scientific research, and infrastructure in the next three years [2] - The US redeployed nuclear weapons to the UK after 17 years, which means a major change in NATO's nuclear strategy in the European theater [2] - The US and Japan reached a large - scale deal, with Japan paying a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and investing 550 billion dollars in the US as required [2]

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals industry daily report dated July 23, 2025, covering the precious metals market including gold and silver [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the uncertainty of US - EU tariffs, concerns about US inflation and growth, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The "tariff countdown" may be the main trading theme for gold. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices. Silver has shown a strong trend recently with the gold - silver ratio repaired, but short - term callback risks should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 792.9 yuan/gram, up 8.06; the main contract position was 222,387 lots, up 5,665; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 161,804 lots, up 9,350; the warehouse receipt quantity was 28,857 kilograms, unchanged [2] - **Silver**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,492 yuan/kilogram, up 99; the main contract position was 478,279 lots, up 2,269; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 134,188 lots, down 2,904; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,188,482 kilograms, down 10,564 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 787.97 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 4.93 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold main contract, up 6.47; the gold ETF position was 954.8 tons, up 7.74 [2] - **Silver**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price was 9,419 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 73 yuan/kilogram against the Shanghai Silver main contract, up 6; the silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, up 152.58 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **Gold**: The CFTC non - commercial net position was 213,115 contracts (weekly), up 10,147; the total quarterly supply was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total quarterly demand was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 [2] - **Silver**: The CTFC non - commercial net position was 59,448 contracts (weekly), up 927; the total annual supply was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Gold**: The 20 - day historical volatility was 10.42%, down 0.83; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.2%, up 2.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.31%, up 2.36 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said Fed Chairman Powell would leave office, and he thought interest rates were too high and should be cut by at least 3 percentage points. He has criticized Powell multiple times this year [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said tariff revenues were "huge", possibly accounting for 1% of US GDP, and could reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He supported Powell to complete his term and called for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions [2] - Japan's central bank may keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% next week, as Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's election defeat has little impact on the central bank's gradual rate - hike policy [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 57%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 2.7% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, after the price reached a relatively low level, the culling process of old hens accelerated, reducing the inventory expectation. Also, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of hens in some areas declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. Coupled with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the expectation of price increase from farmers was released, which promoted the low - level rebound of egg prices. From the perspective of the market, boosted by the stabilization and rebound of the spot market, the downward trend of the futures market also slowed down, and it is advisable to try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3637 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 16; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 32660 hands, a decrease of 5955 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 3 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 7; the trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 247828 hands, a decrease of 4411 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.37 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the basis (spot - futures) is - 268 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 82 [2] Upstream Situation - The national egg - laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 1.02; the national culled egg - laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59; the average price of egg - laying chicken seedlings in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.02; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the egg - laying chicken breeding profit is - 0.47 yuan/head, an increase of 0.22; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4; the national average age of culled chickens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.39 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.21; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.13; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, a decrease of 0.1; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7886 tons, an increase of 289 tons [2] Industry News - The egg prices in the main production areas across the country rose. The national average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.04 yuan/jin compared with the previous day. The average egg price in Shandong, the main production area, was stable at 3.15 - 3.35 yuan/jin; the average egg price in Hebei rose steadily by 0.11 yuan/jin to 3.02 - 3.11 yuan/jin; the average egg price in Henan, the main sales area, was stable at 3.20 - 3.25 yuan/jin; the price in Heilongjiang rose by 0.10 yuan/jin to 3.30 yuan/jin; the price in Anhui was stable at 3.20 yuan/jin [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts did not significantly expand production capacity fluctuations. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, but prices gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and demand has weakened marginally. It is expected that the overall production decline of silicon wafer enterprises will end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Today, the polysilicon market limit - up was mainly due to the increase in coal prices, energy prices, and costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic sector continued to be a major part of the anti - involution meeting trading, leading to a volume - driven increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and high inventory, if the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. Today, the spot price remained flat, and there were rumors of warehouse receipt expansion, causing price divergence at high levels and high volatility. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or sell call options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,080 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 975 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 165,641 lots, a decrease of 26,538 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 40,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,105 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 3,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,445 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, a decrease of 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, a decrease of 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2] Industry News - On the afternoon of July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration on promoting the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice stated that since this year, the overall supply - demand situation of coal in the country has been loose, prices have been continuously declining, and some coal mining enterprises have exceeded the announced production capacity to produce in order to "make up for price with volume", seriously disrupting the coal market order. To standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and promote the stable and orderly supply of coal, the National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal production in key coal - producing provinces (regions) in the near future. On the morning of the 23rd, it was confirmed from multiple channels of the National Energy Administration that the notice was true. According to informed sources, the document was led by the Coal Department [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an oscillating and bullish approach for both coking coal and coke, with a focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1135.5, up 11.00%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 900, up 40 yuan/ton. With strong macro - expectations and improved market confidence, the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] - On July 23, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1707.5, up 3.83%. The coke enterprises started the second round of price hikes. The supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the iron - water output is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure. The total coking coal inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Coking coal: The JM main - contract closing price was 1135.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 748737.00 lots, down 24788.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 63053.00 lots, up 3398.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2] - Coke: The J main - contract closing price was 1707.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 52840.00 lots, down 1482.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 4463.00 lots, down 89.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 35.50 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 760.00 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Coking coal: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 900.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; the price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in LingShi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1250.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1000.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 114.50 yuan/ton, up 63.00 yuan [2] - Coke: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main - contract basis was - 262.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Coking coal: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the cleaned coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52%; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90 million tons, up 1.10 million tons; the import coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 553.50 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 929.11 million tons, up 36.76 million tons; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 791.10 million tons, up 8.17 million tons; the available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.63 days, up 0.15 days; the import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the coking coal production was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2] - Coke: The coke inventory at 18 ports was 252.71 million tons, down 2.97 million tons; the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 87.55 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 638.99 million tons, up 1.19 million tons; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.46 days, down 0.18 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.14%; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%; the crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia [2] - Russian President Putin will visit China in September [2] - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia [2] - Germany has announced an investment initiative worth over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries [2] - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister to discuss the extension of the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy), the operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,355 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,652 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,155 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 327,482 lots, down 3,415 lots; the position of the alumina main contract is 193,941 lots, down 17,703 lots; the position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 9,938 lots, unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum注销仓单 is 9,975 tons, up 2,425 tons; the total inventory of alumina is 44,664 tons, down 15,000 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 108,822 tons, up 5,625 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,850 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot nationwide is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 95 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 140 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.10 million tons, down 30,781 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - **Production and Export**: The production of aluminum products is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Indices**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.31%, up 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.08%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 11.84%, up 0.0046% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.09, down 0.0309 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that the new round of China - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on tariff issues, hoping that the US and China would promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of bilateral relations through dialogue [2]. - The Fed Governor emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility to maintain transparency and accountability [2]. - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - Since this year, over 66 million consumers have purchased over 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through trade - in programs, over 69 million consumers have purchased over 74 million mobile phones and other digital products, and 82,000 sales stores across the country have carried out trade - in programs for electric bicycles, with a total of 9.056 million new vehicles exchanged [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The port inventory of domestic bauxite is gradually rising, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the bauxite price is stable. The production willingness of smelters has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. The short - term domestic alumina supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. The high aluminum price provides profits for smelters, and the demand for alumina is supported [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project is advancing steadily, the operating capacity is at a high level, but due to the off - season of consumption, the ingot production has increased and the industrial inventory has accumulated. The downstream consumption is affected by the off - season, and the spot market trading is cautious [2]. - **Options**: The call - put ratio is 1.09, down 0.0309, and the implied volatility has slightly increased, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the domestic cast aluminum production is affected by raw material supply and the off - season, with the operating rate declining. The low demand restricts the spot price of cast aluminum, and the industrial inventory is gradually accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2].