Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will significantly boost demand. Lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but the upside is limited due to the annual line resistance. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,001 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,618 lots, up 304 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,860 lots, up 517 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,086 tons, down 682 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, up 10,125 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 145 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cash - 3 month spread was - 31.9 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The monthly automobile output was 264.2 thousand vehicles, down 3.8 thousand vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. Industry News - Trump's plan to fire Powell caused a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and a surge in gold. After Trump's denial, the market stabilized [2]. - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest level during his tenure [2]. - Trump hopes the oil price can drop further, and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been good [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring [2]. View Summary - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will boost demand, and lead prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the upside is limited [2]. - The supply of primary lead has increased due to rising lead prices, and the supply of recycled lead has also increased slightly, but the raw material bottleneck remains [2]. - Market trading is light, and the support for lead prices from demand is limited. The operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has declined [2]. - Overseas inventory is decreasing, while domestic inventory is increasing slightly due to the price difference between domestic and overseas markets [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate is decreasing, which will have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach or a strategy of lightly shorting on price increases. The macro - situation shows that the US PPI in June reached a nearly one - year low, with flat month - on - month growth. The tariff effect has not yet appeared. In terms of fundamentals, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the supply of Philippine nickel ore is increasing but domestic port inventories are decreasing, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, high raw material prices and falling nickel prices are causing losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts. On the demand side, stainless steel mills are reducing production due to compressed profits, and the demand for ternary batteries is decreasing despite the rising production and sales of new energy vehicles. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic social inventories are rising significantly, and overseas inventories are accumulating again. Technically, the market is in a range - bound adjustment, and attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,880 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan. The 08 - 09 month contract spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,990 US dollars/ton, down 225 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 53,426 lots, down 702 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 lots, down 927 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons (weekly), up 125 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,958 tons, down 91 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 120,250 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 980 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.51 US dollars/ton, up 3.3 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons (weekly), up 24.65 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, down 5.44 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest year - on - year increase since September 2024. The month - on - month growth was 0%, lower than the expected 0.2%. - Trump said that the scale and trade volume of the countries receiving tariff letters are not large; the US and India are close to reaching an agreement; an agreement may be reached with the EU, and it is too early to discuss the prospects of the US - Canada agreement. Trump also said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries. - Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a reference price range of 26.0 - 26.5. The macro - economic situation shows the US June PPI hitting a near - one - year low, and Trump's tariff plans and trade agreement announcements. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, after the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, some producers' operating rates have declined, and the electronics industry is in a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have dropped, but downstream procurement willingness is still low, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly while LME de - stocking has slowed and the premium has declined. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of holdings, and the price has broken below the MA60 support, increasing the downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price for Shanghai tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position volume for Shanghai tin is 22,969 lots, up 221 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 420 tons, down 150 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 14,450 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year growth was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month growth of 0%. Trump said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10% tariffs" on at least 100 countries and mentioned trade agreements. Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies for strengthening the domestic large - cycle and regulate the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3]. 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend as some olefin plants resume and gradually consume the previously accumulated methanol inventory, but the methanol port inventory continues to increase due to smooth unloading of foreign vessels. The downstream demand remains weak, and the overall start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The MA2509 contract is recommended to wait and see by paying attention to the support level around 2370 in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 653886 lots, down 196 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125584 lots, down 4127 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8786, down 145 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1972.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 407.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 275 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 238 euros/ton, down 3 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 58 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.05 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 6.56 yuan/ton, up 14.55 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The spot profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 899 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.14%, down 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.14%, down 1.09% [2] Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the order backlog is 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons. As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] Viewpoint Summary - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend, but the port inventory continues to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. It is recommended to take short - term long positions when the price is low and continue to monitor the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 7,835 yuan/ton, the main contract's open interest is 93,033 hands (a decrease of 3,811 hands), the number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,932 hands (a decrease of 1,674 hands) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (second - grade fruit from farmers, paper - bagged 80 and above) is 4 yuan/jin, the national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, the wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg) [2] Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 million tons (a decrease of 7.82 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.06, the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.13 (both decreased by 0.01), the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons (a decrease of 20,000 tons), the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,552.9 million dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million dollars [2] Industry Situation - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin (an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 6.15 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.94 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11 vehicles, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 19.4 vehicles (a decrease of 0.8 vehicles), and the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 7.8 vehicles (a decrease of 0.6 vehicles) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.32% (an increase of 0.03%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.36% (an increase of 0.06%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of apples is 14.95% (a decrease of 0.2%) [2] Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the apple trading in the production areas remained sluggish. The remaining goods in the western production areas were limited, and the sales speed was acceptable with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining farmer - owned apples were mainly large fruits with uneven quality, and the prices were negotiated. The self - stored goods of merchants were digested through their own channels with a slow sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed down 0.11% on Thursday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (a 2.35% increase) compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Inventory Situation - As of July 16, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 12.15% (a decrease of 1.06% from the previous week), and the de - stocking speed increased slightly. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 4.63% (a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week), and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short on rallies, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand. The upside space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost support is strong. The upside space may be limited in the short term. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,089 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the closing price of the Casting Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,845 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,575.50 US dollars/ton, down 7.50 US dollars [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum increases by 74,084 hands to 268,542 hands; the main contract position of Alumina decreases by 15,471 hands to 223,893 hands; the main contract position of Casting Aluminum Alloy decreases by 114 hands to 8,279 hands. The LME aluminum inventory is 423,525 tons, up 6,550 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 103,197 tons, up 8,565 tons [2]. **Spot Market** - **Price**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Casting Aluminum Alloy is 155 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan; the basis of Electrolytic Aluminum is 155 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of Alumina is 61 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Utilization**: The Alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the Alumina capacity utilization rate is 80.93%, down 1.17 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for Alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons; the supply - demand balance of Alumina is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Supply and Inventory**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.80 million tons, up 3.60 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - **Production and Trade**: The electrolytic aluminum production is stable with a slight increase; the aluminum products production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 48.90 million tons, down 6.10 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Production**: The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Indicator**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. **Option Situation** - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.74%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.28%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.11, down 0.0362 [2]. **Industry News** - **Domestic**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market are 57.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%; the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market are 33.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [2]. - **International**: The US PPI in June is flat month - on - month, and the core PPI is also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will likely hover at the bottom, and prices will continue to face pressure. With the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, market sentiment will be the main driver. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, the supply has increased with two glass production lines resuming production, but it remains at a low level. The industry's profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production may increase. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. After the glass price drops, there will be policy rumors to support the bottom. It is recommended to buy put options on rallies and go long on futures on dips [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,092 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1,559,642 hands, down 39,415 hands; glass main contract position is 1,522,202 hands, down 4,105 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 473,312, down 22,482; glass top 20 net position is - 392,954, up 24,900. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 2,815 tons, down 379 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 797 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 46, up 6; glass September - January contract spread is - 92, up 5. Soda ash basis is - 8 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; glass basis is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shahe glass sheets are 1,088 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32% (weekly), unchanged; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68% (weekly), unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 15.84 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 224 (weekly), up 2. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 188.4 million tons (weekly), up 2.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 67.102 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.983 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 16, the national power load hit a new high, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time. The State Council Executive Meeting plans to implement a special action to boost consumption and optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones. It also aims to standardize the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry and urge key car - makers to fulfill payment - term commitments. NVIDIA has restarted the sales of H20 in China, and inquiries have surged. He Lifeng stated that China will promote mutual - benefit and win - win results in the global industrial and supply chains [2]. Macro - aspect - The market is mainly observing whether an important meeting will be held at the end of July and if there will be new statements. There are still short - term policy expectations. Some false rumors are spreading in the short - term market, and commodity sentiment is the dominant factor [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - Supply: Domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, production is flat, supply is still ample, and profits continue to decline. Future production is expected to decrease, and natural - soda production will gradually become the mainstream. Demand: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and both operating rate and profit have improved. Photovoltaic glass is generally flat. Inventory: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - Supply: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and the industry profit has improved. Demand: The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have decreased, and procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

注二茬花果情况。操作上，逢高试空交易，注意控制风险。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10380 | | 15 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 135007 | -1689 -56 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -18453 | -862 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | | 8972 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 1448 | 0 | | | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 6 | | | 4.3 | | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.2 | | | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 ...