Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the Shanghai tin market has experienced a wide - range adjustment. Macro factors show that the US retail sales in June increased more than expected, while the EU is preparing for a potential escalation of the trade war. On the fundamental side, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. The smelting end faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the demand end is in a seasonal off - peak period. The tin price has been fluctuating widely recently, and downstream procurement is mainly at low prices. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after a decline this week, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and an amplitude of 3.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 264,540 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services. Fundamentally, the actual ore output in Myanmar will start in the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine is resuming production. The smelting end has problems such as raw material shortages and cost pressures. The demand end is in an off - peak season. The tin price has been fluctuating widely, and downstream procurement is cautious. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while the LME de - stocking has slowed down. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10 [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 264,540 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan/ton or 0.31% from July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 33,070 US dollars/ton, down 380 US dollars/ton or 1.14% from July 11. The spot premium remained stable [8][9]. - **Ratio Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19, the same as on July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the Shanghai - London tin ratio was 7.92, down 0.06 from July 10 [16]. - **Position Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 126 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from July 14. The trading volume of Shanghai tin was 49,232 lots, a decrease of 596 lots or 1.2% from July 11 [17][18]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Ore Import and Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin output was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [23][24]. - **Processing Fee**: On July 18, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on July 11. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on July 11. The average price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.46% [27]. - **Import Window**: As of July 18, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 14.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,887.01 yuan/ton from July 11. In May 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the LME tin total inventory was 1,935 tons, a decrease of 35 tons or 1.78% from July 11. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,148 tons, an increase of 51 tons or 0.72% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,817 tons, an increase of 186 tons or 2.81% from July 11 [37]. - **Demand Side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On July 17, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,737.64, an increase of 29.37 or 0.51% from July 10. From January to June 2025, the integrated circuit output was 23,946,961,100 pieces, an increase of 3,236,412,000 pieces or 15.63% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. The export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [48].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.18」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求韧性较强 热卷期价保持强势 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至7月18日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3310（+37），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3380（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量延续小幅下调。321.14（-2）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：终端需求好于预期，表观需求回升。本期表需323.79（+1.28），（同比-4.18）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库双降。总库存342.91（-2.65），（同比-80.26）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率60.17%，环比上周增加0.43个百分点，同比去年增加28.14个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突，美国将对俄罗 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market declined weakly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Although the second batch of export quotas has been finalized, due to high pricing, the trading volume of small and medium - sized particles is limited, and the suspension of small - package urea exports has weakened market sentiment [6]. - Recently, new plants have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily domestic urea output. With few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, the output is likely to increase. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some areas, providing limited rigid support. As the production of autumn fertilizers is approaching, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily but slowly due to factors such as frequent raw material price fluctuations and inactive downstream purchasing. The operating rate of melamine has also rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit further increases. Some urea enterprises' inventories are decreasing rapidly as export orders are being executed. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is decreasing, but it is still much higher than the same period in previous years. As the execution of previous export orders nears the end, the inventory reduction speed may slow down, but export expectations still support the price [6]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. The second - batch export quota had limited impact on trading volume due to high pricing, and the suspension of small - package urea exports weakened market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: New plant maintenance led to a slight decrease in daily output, but with few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is slow, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises is rising but may be limited by downstream demand. Export orders are being executed, leading to inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down later, and export expectations support the price [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [10]. - As of July 18, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 25 [12]. - As of July 18, there were 2,523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 122 from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 17, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - As of July 17, the FOB price of urea in China was 410 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of July 17, the urea basis was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. - **Industry** - As of July 17, China's urea output was 1.3687 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.95%. The average daily output was 195,500 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, a week - on - week decline of 0.80%. Next cycle, the output is likely to increase [41]. - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 541,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.63%. As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 7.46% [45]. - In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%, and the average export price was 209.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [48]. - **Downstream** - As of July 17, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.24% on average this week, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was disturbed by heavy rain, which helped the rubber price continue to rise. The import rubber market reported an increase in offers. Traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, frequent rainfall has disrupted the raw material output rhythm, and the purchase price has remained firm. In Hainan, there is still local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply on the island has been slow. Driven by the significant rise in the futures and spot markets, the enthusiasm of some processing plants to scramble for raw materials has increased. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased month - on - month, but the moderate replenishment and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises have restricted the port's shipping rate, and the overall spot inventory at Qingdao Port has maintained an upward trend [9]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises this week have gradually increased to the normal level, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises to recover. Currently, the production schedules of enterprises tend to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was affected by heavy rain, which promoted the continuous rise of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported rising offers, traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, and factories mainly waited and watched. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan is affected by frequent rainfall, which slows down the raw material output rhythm and keeps the purchase price firm. Hainan still has local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply is slow. Driven by the rise in the futures and spot markets, some processing plants are more enthusiastic about scrambling for raw materials. The spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased, but the wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricts the shipping rate. In terms of demand, the production schedules of tire maintenance enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the overall capacity utilization rate has recovered. The production schedules are stable, and there is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the operation. Enterprises adjust production according to their own situations, and the short - term operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trends**: This week, the main futures price of Shanghai rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 3.13% week - on - week; the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 2.3% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 790, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was - 20 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 17, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of July 17, the basis of 20 - rubber was 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 17, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 48.55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. As of July 18, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 32.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 17, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [42][45]. - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified natural rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [48]. - **Inventory at Qingdao Port**: As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade at Qingdao Port was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, with an increase rate of 0.69%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber at Qingdao Port increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points [52]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises within the week gradually returned to normal, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises to recover [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In June 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and about 29% higher than the 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated upwards. The spot price ranged from 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The futures sentiment was bullish, and the transaction center of the spot market moved up. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the ex - factory prices by 100 - 300 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber is weakening. Supply is expected to increase as most maintenance devices restart in mid - and late - July. The inventory of producers may rise due to downstream price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing, and the short - term opening rate is expected to have little change [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose. The ex - factory prices of major companies were raised. The mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton as of July 17 [8]. - Market outlook: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 0.95% this week [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of July 18, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 25 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of July 18, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 17, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of July 17, the basis of butadiene rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 17, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 574.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene: As of July 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week; the port inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from last month. As of July 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.21%, a decrease of 0.32% from last week [38]. - Production profit: As of July 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire opening rate: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [47]. - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [50]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No information provided.

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,794.00 | +44.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,482.00 | +74.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 565,357.00 | +1636.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 395,187.00 | -5381.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -52,050.00 | +676.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -47,514.00 | +6485.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -6.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 64.00 | -14.00↓ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 83,372.00 | -463.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | | 21,950.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 17, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 918.5, up 1.55%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal in the spot market was reported at 785. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improving coal supply quality, and promoting market balance. The mine - end inventory decreased, market confidence improved, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. The import cumulative growth rate decreased, and the total inventory was neutral. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. - On July 17, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1519.0, up 1.00%. Some regions proposed a price increase. Jiangsu Province planned to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking production to over 20% in 2025 and reduce coal consumption by about 5% compared to 2020. The raw material supply improved, iron - water production declined slightly from a high level, most coal mines had no inventory pressure and were willing to hold prices. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 63 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 918.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50; the closing price of the J main contract was 1519.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 850792.00 lots, up 5330.00; the J futures contract open interest was 54981.00 lots, down 196.00 [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 62188.00 lots, up 15289.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 3702.00 lots, up 137.00 [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 49.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1600.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00, up 670.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1410.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was - 129.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 11.50 yuan/ton, down 21.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08; the clean coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3303.70 million tons, down 300.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90, up 1.10 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 255.68 million tons, up 13.66 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 93.08 million tons, down 9.02 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 68.00 [2]. - The production of coking coal was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40 [2]. - The crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Jiangsu Province issued the 2025 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan, aiming for short - process steelmaking production to account for over 20% in 2025 and a 5% reduction in coal consumption compared to 2020 [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that more central banks were buying gold directly from local gold mines with local currencies [2]. - As of June 30, the installed power capacity in Zhejiang Province reached 165 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for over 50%, and photovoltaic installed capacity becoming the largest power source, up 53.4% year - on - year [2]. - The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro seven - year budget, with 4505 billion euros for the EU Competitiveness Fund [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the overall loose capital under the central bank's care still provides bullish support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Trading Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts' closing prices increased by 0.02%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively, while the TL main contract decreased by 0.02%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF2512 - 2509 increased, while TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased, while TF main contract positions increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 240020.IB, and 250006.IB increased, while those of 220010.IB and 210005.IB decreased [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - year bonds decreased by 0.50bp, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds increased by 0.75bp, 0.64bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 4.93bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.30bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 2.33bp and 6.02bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day rate remained unchanged while the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 0.60bp [2] 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4505 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 900 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value to the United States was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - On July 17th at 20:30, pay attention to the US retail sales month - on - month rate for June and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, is still in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, with a slightly decreased implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,840 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,599.50 dollars/ton, down 35.50 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 153,791 hands, down 6,666 hands. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 4,039 hands, up 4,268 hands. The LME copper inventory was 121,000 tons, up 10,525 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,325 tons, down 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,035 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 51 dollars/ton, down 2.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 180 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.79 dollars/kiloton, up 0.46 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,320 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,020 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 0.048 billion tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 54,790 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 0.1185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.96%, down 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.12%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.15%, down 0.0065. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.62, up 0.0102 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting. The National Committee Chairman Wang Huning emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The US PPI in June was flat month - on - month. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].