1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - On July 15, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 911.5, down 0.38%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 780 in the spot market. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, strengthened industry self - discipline, and promoted market balance. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, market confidence improved, and the clean coal inventory continued to transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined, and the total inventory was neutral. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - On July 15, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1514.0, down 0.85%. Some regions proposed a price increase in the spot market. The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the domestic steel production has reached its peak, and the future domestic crude steel consumption is expected to remain at 8 - 9 billion tons. The industry shows an obvious trend of reducing production, but the industrial concentration is increasing. Fundamentally, the raw material supply is gradually improving, the hot metal output has slightly declined from the high level, most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and the coal mines have a strong willingness to support prices. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 63 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为911.50元/吨，环比下跌8.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1514.00元/吨，环比下跌11.00元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为814,923.00手，环比增加7,161.00手；J期货合约持仓量为54,685.00手，环比减少1,074.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60,314.00手，环比增加1,256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3,642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]。 - JM1 - 9月合约价差为50.50元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比增加2.50元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为1,600.00张，环比增加200.00张；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比无变化 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为780.00元/吨，环比上涨23.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1,390.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为118.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,330.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,320.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,350.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为930.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为960.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - JM主力合约基差为18.50元/吨，环比增加8.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 124.00元/吨，环比增加11.00元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为300.77万吨，环比减少11.40万吨；精煤库存为197.07万吨，环比减少17.91万吨 [2]。 - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.33%，环比增加2.61个百分点；原煤产量为42,107.00万吨，环比增加1,778.60万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3,303.70万吨，环比减少300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]。 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比减少9.02万吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比减少6.67万吨；247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比减少0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比减少150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比减少68.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为4,070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比减少0.30个百分点 [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比减少11.00元；焦炭产量为4,170.00万吨，环比减少67.60万吨 [2]。 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比减少0.31个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比减少0.40个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,318.00万吨，环比减少336.50万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 特朗普称若俄罗斯50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议将对俄征收100%二级关税，美国官员称还会对购买俄油国家实施二级制裁 [2]。 - 中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会，强调守牢安全稳定底线，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡 [2]。 - 欧盟委员会委员表示若美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值约840亿美元的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税 [2]。 - 泰国财政部考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税 [2]。 - 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动232调查 [2]。

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 2,512 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device maintenance in Central and East China last week, with a slight change in caustic soda capacity utilization rate to 80.4%. The demand - side showed an increase in alumina and viscose staple fiber开工率, while a decrease in printing and dyeing开工率. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased last week. In July, the planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased, but the caustic soda start - up rate was restricted due to the backlog of liquid chlorine. This week, with frequent stop - and - restart of devices, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, low profits and limited downstream demand are the core contradictions. Recently, the non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm. For futures, pay attention to the pressure around 2,600 yuan/ton for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,512 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume was 246,154 hands (an increase of 8,176 hands), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 4,705 hands (a decrease of 2,591 hands), the trading volume was 519,094 hands (a decrease of 355,050 hands). The closing price of the January contract was 2,500 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,558 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 113 yuan/ton (an increase of 20 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 636 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton (an increase of 250 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton (an increase of 125.5 yuan/ton) [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3,150 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. As of July 10th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% from the previous week and an increase of 2.64% year - on - year [1] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The alumina开工率 increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons last week. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased, but the start - up rate was restricted. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Recently, non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3] - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - In the demand sector, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [3] - Recently, tin prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants [3] - Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and the price is adjusted widely within the range. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons (weekly), down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,605 tons (daily), down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14,070 tons, down 3,390 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In June in China, the social financing increment was 420 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [3] - The EU is prepared to impose counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [3] - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3]

供应端：玻璃产线冷复产两条，整体产量上升，但产量依旧维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。行业整体利 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 润改善，后续复产力度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，7月房地产数据依旧继续下滑，下游深加 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1214 | 环比 数据指标 -27 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1071 | 环比 -31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 4 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | 143 | | 1585075 | 52588 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1502278 | 106370 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -450830 | -39284 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -417854 | -52789 纯碱交易所仓单( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The real - estate market's downturn drags down steel prices, but the exit of backward production capacity supports the steel market. The weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%. The total inventory slightly declined, and the apparent demand dropped by 3.37 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a downward adjustment. It is recommended to trade in the range of 3140 - 3090 for the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,114.00 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; position: 2,153,852 lots, up 31,511 lots; top 20 net positions: - 8,161 lots, down 31,162 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 96,689 tons, up 8,179 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight): 3,344 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 50.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 752.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40%; sample steel mill rebar output: 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 47.49%, down 0.98%; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 60.42%, down 3.12%; domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded. Most industry sectors fell, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors leading the decline. [3] - Domestically, the Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% met market expectations, but the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, the real estate market continued to decline, and imports and exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, and the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness. [3] - The profit situation of listed companies that have released semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in policies for social retail has weakened. However, loose monetary policies have shown effects, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. [3] - With the release of mid - year performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the stock index has long - term upward potential, but the poor June economic data will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3500 mark. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips with a light position in the long term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts generally declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 3980.6, down 9.6; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2734.2, down 17.6. [2] - The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1269.4, up 12.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread was 413.8, down 20.0. [2] - The differences between the current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts of each index futures also declined. For example, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 29.0, down 5.8. [2] 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,757.00, down 1858.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 10,097.00, up 393.0. [2] 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 1.4 to 4019.06, while the SSE 50 fell 10.6 to 2747.23. [2] - The basis of each index futures contract decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.5, down 6.6. [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume increased to 16,350.05 billion yuan, up 1540.82 billion yuan; the margin trading balance increased to 18,853.90 billion yuan, up 95.95 billion yuan. [2] - Northbound trading volume decreased to 1912.03 billion yuan, down 543.01 billion yuan; the reverse repurchase operation volume increased by 3425.0 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 24.59%, down 34.10 percentage points; the Shibor increased to 1.535%, up 0.120 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 2.3% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased 2.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. [2] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [2] - In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. Q1 GDP increased 5.4% year - on - year, Q2 increased 5.2% year - on - year, and Q2 increased 1.1% quarter - on - quarter. [2] - In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 42287 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 245458 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. [2] - In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased 6.4% year - on - year. [2] - In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248654 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting price factors, it increased 5.3% year - on - year, and in June, it decreased 0.12% month - on - month. [2] - From January to June, national real estate development investment was 46658 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. New commercial housing sales area was 45851 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new commercial housing sales were 44241 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold maintains a volatile trend under the environment of a strong US dollar and high interest rates, but long - term support is determined by the de - dollarization process, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of monetary policy shifts. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 14 countries from August 1 could disrupt the global supply chain, driving safe - haven funds into gold ETFs. Fed officials Waller and Daly signaled dovishness, mentioning the possibility of rate cuts this year, attracting long - term allocation buying. Downward pressure on gold prices comes from the currency and interest - rate environment, with the rising US dollar index increasing the cost of holding gold and high US government fiscal deficits pushing up long - term US Treasury yields. If the US June CPI data released tonight exceeds 3.0%, it may strengthen the hawkish stance and push up Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices; data below 2.5% could boost rate - cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's Beige Book on July 17 and the risk of trade conflict escalation after the August 1 tariff implementation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 780.4 yuan/gram, down 1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9225 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 198,270 lots, up 7,187 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 450,115 lots, up 2,020 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 139,691 lots, up 5,899 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 146,976 lots, down 567 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms; that of silver is 1,222,959 kilograms, down 1,023 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.8 yuan/gram, up 0.6 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9,146 yuan/kilogram, down 22 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.6 yuan/gram, up 1.6 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 79 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.64 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,966.24 tons, up 207.72 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; those of silver are 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.81%, up 2.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.8%, up 2.27% [2] Industry News - Trump urged Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatening 100% secondary tariffs and said the US would consult with other countries on tariffs and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. He also called for Fed Chairman Powell to resign, and White House economic advisor Hassett said Trump has the right to fire Powell. Cleveland Fed President Harker hopes to see further inflation decline before supporting rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The EU's Šefčovič said the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars) if the US - EU trade talks fail. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Summer消暑 fruits flooding the market impacts apple demand, slowing down the sales pace and weakening price drivers. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the apple market is expected to show a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Continued attention should be paid to production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,862 yuan/ton, up 24; the main contract position is 96,958 lots, up 2,757; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,806 lots, up 783; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin; Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin; Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, down 19.58; the national apple production is 5,128.51 tons, up 168.34 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, up 0.12; the wholesale price of apples is 9.76 yuan/kg, up 0.03; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 tons, down 7.82; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.13, down 0.01; Shaanxi's is 0.06, down 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, down 20,000; the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million US dollars, down 2,552.9; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, up 0.1 [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg, up 0.28; pears is 6.73 yuan/kg, up 0.05; bananas is 6.33 yuan/kg, down 0.14; watermelons is 3.93 yuan/kg, down 0.03. The average daily morning arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 7.8 (unchanged), 11 (down 0.8), and 19.4 (down 0.6) respectively [2]. - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 16.84%, up 0.09 and 0.1 respectively [2]. b. Industry News - On July 15, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the production areas was relatively stable. The trading atmosphere in the western production areas improved, with more inquiries and purchases, and the market stabilized with prices based on quality. The trading of inventory apples in Shandong was a bit chaotic, with uneven fruit quality and different selling attitudes among farmers and merchants, mostly through bargaining [2]. - According to MySteel's preliminary estimate based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3,736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 dropped 1.05% to close at 6,144 yuan/ton. The supply side saw an expanded impact of shutdowns in petroleum benzene plants last week, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.29% to 77.85%. For hydrobenzene, 3 sets of devices stopped, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 9.32% to 61.95%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream varied last week. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased by 5.75% to 164,000 tons this week. With an increase in domestic petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Due to the restart of large domestic plants and a continuous high volume of ships arriving at ports, pure benzene remains in a state of loose supply. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans for new downstream device startups this month, which may improve the future supply - demand contradiction. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply - demand is generally weak, but geopolitical uncertainties still affect short - term oil prices. In the short term, the low - valued spot situation caused by weak supply - demand may continue. The pure benzene spot price is expected to fluctuate at a low level this week. Pay attention to the implementation of new downstream production capacity in the future. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily operating range expected to be around 6,100 - 6,300 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 6,144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the main settlement price was 6,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The main trading volume was 24,596 lots, a decrease of 13,009 lots; the main open interest was 13,970 lots, a decrease of 790 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; in the South China market, it was 5,950 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton; in the Northeast region, it was 5,850 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) was 727 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price in China was 744.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 71.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.19 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 597 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.75 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13%; the weekly output was 431,700 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 79.21%, a decrease of 0.82%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of July 14th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu port samples was 164,000 tons, a decrease of 5.75% compared to the previous period [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits come onto the market, they replace tonic products like red dates, leading to a seasonal off - peak in red date demand and slow inventory digestion [2]. - The new - season crops are at a critical fruiting stage, and the market focuses on the weather in the production areas. Currently, the growth of jujube trees is relatively good, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The main price of red dates has dropped in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,280 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - The position of the main futures contract for red dates is 132,979 lots, a decrease of 1,700 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for red dates is - 13,720 lots, an increase of 3,085 lots [2]. - The number of red date warehouse receipts is 9,122 sheets [2]. - The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts for red dates is 1,448 sheets, a decrease of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of general red dates in Kashgar is 0 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin [2]. - The price of general red dates in Alar is 0 yuan/kg; the price of general red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg [2]. - The price of super - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg; the price of super - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the price of super - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg [2]. - The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons; the planting area of red dates is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 72.28% [2]. - The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume of red dates is 15,350,567 kg, an increase of 2,229,227 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan [2]. - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 15, the temperature in Kashgar region was between 21 - 30°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. Jujube trees were gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The recent temperature was suitable for fruit setting, and attention should be paid to the growth situation and weather changes in the production areas [2].