Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, the number of newly scheduled maintenance PVC plants is small, and previously shut - down plants are gradually restarting, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The 200,000 - ton plant of Qingdao Gulf is expected to be put into production in October, which may further increase the industry's supply pressure. - In the early part of October, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production. After the holiday, there will be a phased replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, but the growth space of demand is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines, and its role in alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction is limited. - The PVC inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, which is the main source of price pressure. Currently, the calcium carbide process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use alkali profits to offset chlorine losses. As chlor - alkali profits shrink, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise in the future, providing some support for the price. The PVC futures price is continuously suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction, but considering the current low valuation and cost support, the further downward space of the price may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the trading volume is 591,738 lots, a decrease of 62,851 lots; the open interest is 1,073,359 lots, a decrease of 1,002 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 837,249 lots, a decrease of 7,171 lots; the short position is 950,096 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots; the net long position is - 112,847 lots, a decrease of 15,831 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China decline slightly. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Northwest Europe remain unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in North and Northwest China decline, while that in Central China remains unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East increase, while those in Southeast Asia remain unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.97%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 78.13%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 534,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 1,300 tons, while that in South China decreases by 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, an increase of 43.7794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.37%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.7%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC is 14.74%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreases by 1.43% to 47.76%, among which the operating rate of pipes increases by 1.3% to 40.43%, and the operating rate of profiles decreases by 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, the PVC social inventory is 971,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increases to 5,312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreases by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreases to 5,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increases by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-30 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120900 | -200 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -590 | -310 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15325 | 170 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 76140 | -7009 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26033 | 2907 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 231312 | 1188 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 29008 | -826 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6780 | -198 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 24817 | -240 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122450 | 450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122550 | 650 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. Near the National Day holiday, the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels last week, with overall operating rates slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. During the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 33,214, a decrease of 5,336. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons/week, an increase of 4,300 tons/week. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The current - month production of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2510 closed down 1.02%, and the far - month contracts declined between -1% and -11%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 134.43 points from last week, a 10.7% week - on - week decline. Spot indicators continued to fall, and the futures prices lacked support. [1] - Maersk's spot cabin quotes for European lines stopped falling and rebounded in mid - October, and MSC's quotes followed with a small increase later, leading to a recovery in futures price valuation. Geopolitical conflicts supported the futures prices, but before the National Day holiday, shipping companies lowered freight rates to increase cargo volume, and the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with significant freight rate pressure. [1] - The recent economic data in the Eurozone fluctuated, with business sentiment indices weaker than expected. The ECB indicated a slower pace of interest rate cuts due to improved economic expectations and easing inflation. Overall, there is uncertainty in the trade war, the demand for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1110.600, down 11.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1731.9, down 3.10. [1] - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: -621.30, up 20.00; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: -532.20, up 19.80. [1] - EC contract basis: 9.89, up 4.40. [1] - EC main contract position: 24782 hands, down 4532. [1] 2. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1120.49, down 134.43; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 921.25, down 272.39. [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.52, down 83.69; spot price: 1087.41, down 69.06. [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): down 32.82; CCFI (European line) (weekly): down 39.00. [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2259.00, down 400.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1832.00, down 14.00. [1] - Average charter price (Panamax): 14769.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize): 30090.00. [1] 3. Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued export control penetration rules, and China's Ministry of Commerce responded firmly against it. [1] - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a Gaza peace plan was proposed. [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital, and efforts are being made to allocate the funds to specific projects. [1] 4. Key Data to Watch - September manufacturing PMI final values in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on October 1st. [1] - Eurozone September CPI annual rate preliminary value on October 1st. [1] - US September ADP employment figures (in ten thousands) on October 1st. [1] - US September ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1st. [1]

中东、俄乌地缘局势仍存不确定性，或给到短期油价一定支撑。总体上，国内纯苯供需矛盾改善有限，BZ2 免责声明 603预计在低估值区间偏弱震荡。关注假期国际油价走势对节后开盘的影响。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯苯产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5800 | -85 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5801 | -94 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5583 5860 ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-30 注外轮卸货速度及提货量变动。需求方面，华东地区烯烃企业整体负荷略有提升，神华新疆以及宁夏宝丰 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 三期装置重启，带动上周国内甲醇制烯烃开工率继续提升，关注青海盐湖烯烃装置本周是否重启。国庆假 免责声明 期期间关注伊朗装置的开工情况以及伊朗政府对冬季限气的相关消息。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2328 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For glass, the supply - side production remains unchanged and hovers at the bottom, with obvious signs of production for just - in - time needs and profit recovery due to rising spot prices. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and if there is no central bank interest - rate cut, glass demand may be dragged down. The downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase, and purchases are mainly for just - in - time needs. It is recommended to short - term buy glass futures at low prices [2]. - For soda ash, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production are rising. In the long run, some backward production capacity may be phased out, while the more environmentally friendly natural soda ash production capacity is increasing steadily. The demand from glass remains unchanged at the bottom, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be loose, demand will increase, and the price may rise. It is recommended to short - term buy soda ash futures at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1255 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1210 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1250366 lots, down 57443 lots; glass main contract open interest is 990735 lots, down 166760 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 240287, up 5400; glass top 20 net position is - 84622, up 18719; soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 6352 tons, up 600 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 68 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; glass basis is - 54 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 116 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price difference between January and May soda ash contracts is - 94 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1148 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 89.12%, up 3.59 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 159.99 million tons, down 5.16 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 5935.5 million heavy - cases, down 155.3 million heavy - cases [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 39801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27693.54 million square meters, up 2659.54 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant increased production, with a light soda ash quotation of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia problems, and the price remained stable [2]. - Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant increased its operating load [2]. - Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its operating load [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced production, operating at about 70% capacity [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its operating load [2]. - Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600000 - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's boiler was ignited [2]. - The soda ash market in Sichuan and Chongqing is stable, and supply is expected to increase as plants resume production, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2].

棕榈油产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 9228 | -6 棕榈油1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 192 | 18 90 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:棕榈油(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):棕榈油(日,手) | 332147 | -21314 注册仓单量:棕榈油(日,手) | 500 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:棕榈油(日,手) | 15778 | -9449 期货结算价(连续):BMD毛棕榈油(日,马来 | 4318 | -2 | | | 期货结算价(活跃合约):NYMEX轻质原油( | 63.45 | 西亚林吉特/吨) -2.27 | | | | | 日,美元/桶) 现货价:棕榈油(24度):广东(日,元/吨) | 9060 | -50 棕榈油(马来西亚):FOB离岸价(日,美元/吨 | 1090 | -5 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | 现货价:棕榈油(24度):张家港(日,元/吨) | ...

情绪压制，但近期市场依旧有消息再影响多晶硅市场，多晶硅整体依旧维持平稳运行，节后观察下游光伏 多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 51360 | 80 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2560 | -60 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 87359 | -6409 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 42720 | 50 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52550 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1270 | 185 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 6.54 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8640 ...

整体需求尚未出现明显的爆发式增长，仍处于缓慢恢复阶段。从国内外库存数据来看，国外铅库存下跌， 国内库存也呈现下跌趋势，仓单数量同样下降，整体库存下降表明需求在一定程度上拉动了库存去化。国 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16940 | 85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1997 | -4.5 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -45 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 72939 | -6723 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2066 | -1650 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 29568 | -2378 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 41894 | -7315 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 218825 | -600 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16800 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/ ...