1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of domestic pure benzene is expected to remain in a relatively loose balance. The short - term BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The increase in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and seasonal growth in heating demand support international oil prices. The tight supply - demand and strong prices of styrene warm up the pure benzene market sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract was 5707 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; the settlement price was 5671 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan. The trading volume was 33,508 lots, up 16,781 lots, and the open interest was 30,967 lots, up 1097 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions were 5455 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, and 5325 yuan/ton respectively. The offshore middle price of pure benzene in South Korea was 691 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars, and the CFR middle price of pure benzene in China was 691.98 US dollars/ton, up 2.09 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.73 US dollars/barrel, up 2.98 US dollars, and the CFR middle price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 561.25 US dollars/ton, up 3.25 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.38%, down 0.8%; the weekly output was 43.71 tons, up 0.16 tons. The port inventory was 31.8 tons, up 1.8 tons. The production cost was 4914.6 yuan/ton, down 78.65 yuan, and the production profit was 395 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 70.92%, up 0.69%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 74.22% (down 1.3%), 85.37% (up 5.64%), 61.31% (up 1.5%), and 67.6% (down 0.6%) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 3rd to 9th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.80% to 74.38%, and that of hydrobenzene increased by 1.66% to 61.66%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.01% to 72.35%. As of January 12th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 32.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89%. From January 2nd to 8th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 64 yuan/ton to 395 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - PE supply - demand drivers are not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the short - term. Pay attention to the support around 6730 and the pressure around 6890 on the daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 6820, up 54; 1 - month contract is 6655, up 105; 5 - month contract is 6820, up 54; 9 - month contract is 6855, up 53 [2]. - Volume (daily, lots) is 564,696, up 9,740; Open interest (daily, lots) is 466,526, down 10,862 [2]. - 1 - 5 spread is - 165, up 51; Futures top 20 long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 436,624, up 209; Futures top 20 short positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is 467,191, down 14,021; Futures top 20 net long positions: polyethylene (daily, lots) is - 30,567, up 14,230 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price: North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,868.7, up 73.48; LLDPE(7042) average price: East China (daily, yuan/ton) is 6,971.4, up 126.98 [2]. - Basis is 48.7, up 19.48 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB: Middle price: Naphtha: Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 59.63, up 0.31; CFR: Middle price: Naphtha: Japan region (daily, US dollars/ton) is 561.25, up 3.25 [2]. - Ethylene: CFR Southeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 711, unchanged; Ethylene: CFR Northeast Asia: Middle price (daily, US dollars/ton) is 731, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate: PE: Petrochemical: National (daily, %) is 83.67, up 0.43 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Packaging film (weekly, %) is 48.96, up 0.55; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Pipes (weekly, %) is 29.5, down 0.67; Operating rate: Polyethylene(PE): Agricultural film (weekly, %) is 37.89, down 1.06 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.65, down 0.61; 40 - day historical volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 14.38, up 0.02 [2]. - At - the - money put option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.68; At - the - money call option implied volatility: Polyethylene (daily, %) is 16.09, up 0.69 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production was 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from last week; Polyethylene production enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous period [2]. - From January 2nd to 8th, PE downstream operating rate increased 0.1% week - on - week, with agricultural film operating rate down 1.1% and packaging film operating rate up 0.6% [2]. - As of January 7th, PE production enterprises' inventory was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% week - on - week; As of January 9th, PE social inventory was 484,300 tons, down 0.11% week - on - week [2]. - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 0.56% to 6,920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 0.50% to 6,397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]. - Last week, Maoming Petrochemical's 110,000 - ton and Yangzi Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plants stopped, while Zhanjiang BASF's 500,000 - ton plant restarted, leading to a slight increase in PE production [2]. - This week, Lanzhou Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton plant is under maintenance, and Guangdong Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton plant had a short - term stop, and the impact of some previously stopped plants has expanded, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to decline [2].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly increased and remains at a high level The downstream alumina's operating rate has little change, the viscose staple fiber's operating load has increased, and the printing and dyeing's operating rate has seasonally declined [2] - The inventory has accumulated month - on - month and is higher than the same - period level The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, the price of liquid chlorine has been raised, and the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has increased slightly [2] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is relatively small, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level With the gradual release of the production capacity of newly - built plants at the end of the year, the supply pressure of caustic soda may further increase [2] - In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, but the low profit of the industry restrains the procurement demand of alumina plants and strengthens the expectation of future production cuts Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market remains relatively loose, and the spot price is under pressure The SH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan The main contract's open interest is 231,988 lots, an increase of 23,201 lots The net position of the top 20 futures traders is - 30,153 lots, a decrease of 3,731 lots The trading volume of the main contract is 485,406 lots, a decrease of 273 lots [2] - The closing price of the January contract is 0 yuan/ton, with no change The closing price of the May contract is 2275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan The price in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan The basis of caustic soda is 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, with no change The mainstream price in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, with no change The price of steam coal is 644 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan The mainstream price in Jiangsu is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan The spot price of alumina is 2580 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the operating rate of alumina increased by 1.07% month - on - month to 85.74% From January 5th to 8th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 3.01% month - on - month to 88.43%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.72% month - on - month to 60.09% [2] - As of January 8th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 183 yuan/ton [2]

的实质影响有待观测。短期V2605预计震荡走势，日度K线关注4800附近支撑与5000附近压力。 免责声明 | 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 PVC产业日报 2026-01-14 修影响季节性偏弱，开工率整体保持偏高水平。终端地产、基建正处低温淡季，且春节前管材、型材等硬 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 制品开工率季节性下降，需求端偏弱。出口方面，4月起出口退税取消政策利空远端价格，短期"抢出口" 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The spot supply - demand tight - balance state is expected to continue, providing some support to prices. Due to the weak cost and strong spot, non - integrated plants turned from loss to profit last week, and the profitability of integrated plants expanded. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7116 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the 3 - month contract closing price was 7179 yuan/ton, down 4485 yuan; the trading volume was 9176; the position of the top 20 long orders was not provided with a change value; the net long position of the top 20 was - 40314 hands, down 2964 hands; the position of the top 20 short orders was 424949 hands, up 12140 hands; the total position of active contracts was 241444 hands, down 1284 hands; the number of warehouse receipts was 116 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7080 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 1280 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 900 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 6925 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 7265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in North China was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 7185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 746 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton, up 8.5 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was - 13 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 776 US dollars/ton; the market price in South China was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 70.92%, up 0.69%; the national styrene inventory was 162340 tons, down 9420 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports was 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 46.72%, up 3.08%; ABS was 69.8%, down 0.1%; PS was 58.9%, down 1.5%; UPR was 39%, up 3%; and butadiene - styrene rubber was 81.68%, up 1.16% [2] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene plant output was 35.57 tons, up 0.99% month - on - month; the plant capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, up 0.69% month - on - month; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% to 25.97 tons; as of January 8th, the styrene plant inventory was 16.23 tons, down 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the East China port inventory was 10.06 tons, down 23.96% from last week; the South China port inventory was 1.9 tons, down 7.77% from last week; as of January 13th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 375.48 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 754.45 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2604 closed up 0.21%, while the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a week - on - week increase of 8.9%. The cancellation of full - tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to boost long - term contract cargo volume but weaken spot support. China's manufacturing PMI in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand. Spot freight rates increased, with Maersk's fourth - week opening rate for large containers at 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week. Geopolitical tensions may ease, with expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026 and a warmer outlook for Red Sea re - navigation. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening expectations of an ECB interest rate hike by the end of the year. Freight rate announcements of price increases have not been implemented, many shipping companies have lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The current freight market is highly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1230.500, up 2.6; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1424.1, down 17.00. EC2604 - EC2606 spread: +20.20 (up); EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 302.10, up 28.10. EC contract basis: - 30.80 (down), 725.89. EC main contract open interest: 40044, up 1274 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1956.39, up 160.56; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1323.98, up 73.86. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 8.93; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, down 0.16. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, down 48.22; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1519.06, down 48.69. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1608.00, up 51.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1331.00, up 9.00. Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize ship): 17773.00, down 750.00 [1] Industry News - Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials, the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and the US military prepared various response options, but the White House preferred diplomacy. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment, with many former US financial officials criticizing Trump's move and global central bank governors drafting a statement in support of Powell. Trump said he would announce the next Fed Chairman in the coming weeks. The World Bank raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate would reach 2.2% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japanese economies would slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [1] Key Data to Watch - UK November three - month GDP monthly rate at 15:00 on January 15; UK November manufacturing output monthly rate at 15:00 on January 15; France December CPI monthly rate final value at 15:45 on January 15; Germany's 2025 annual GDP growth rate at 17:00 on January 15; Eurozone November industrial output monthly rate at 18:00 on January 15; US initial jobless claims (in ten thousands) for the week ending January 10 at 21:30 on January 15 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber in this cycle continues at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the substantial increase in the raw material market, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, due to the existence of some unsold but already - sold inventory waiting to be picked up, the overall inventory level has limited changes. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of the raw material end have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream's resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and with the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 12,100 - 12,650 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the position of the main contract is 100,576, with an increase of 5,258 compared to the previous period. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in total warehouses is 6,530 tons, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different enterprises in different regions remain unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 65.47 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 61.15 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.65 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 725 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.25 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 561.25 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,140 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,525 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.31%, with an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a decrease of 3,400 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.15%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 669 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,350 tons, with an increase of 50 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,770 tons, with a decrease of 410 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.436 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared to the same period last year. As of January 7, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24,595.00 | +220.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,800.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -110.00 368,960.00 | -30.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -2021.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -221.00 518,021.00 | -8.00↓ -35343.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 47,425.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 196,081.00 | +2727.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,197.50 | +13.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 494,000.00 | -1825.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices have certain support. In the medium to long term, the differentiation in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2,500 per ounce and find support at $1,900 per ounce, while the London palladium may encounter resistance at $1,900 per ounce and support at $1,500 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, up 22.30 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 495.50 yuan/gram, up 7.80 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 0.00 yuan, down 599.38 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 450.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 630.65 yuan/gram, down 621.68 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 45.50 yuan/gram, down 2.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.18, up 0.28; the VIX volatility index was 15.98. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.88%, down 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment. Many former US financial officials criticized the Trump administration's investigation, and global central bank governors were drafting a statement to support Powell. The World Bank raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US GDP growth rate in 2026 was expected to reach 2.2%, the eurozone's economic growth rate would slow to 0.9%, and Japan's economic growth rate would slow to 0.8%. The US budget deficit in December 2025 was $145 billion, a record high for the month. The US CPI in December 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. The US employment report was slightly stronger than expected, reducing the probability of a January interest rate cut, but there was still room for a 50 - 75 basis - point interest rate cut within the year. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan boosted the narrative of loose liquidity, and the precious metals market remained strong [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The release of the US December PPI year - on - year data on January 14 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month data on January 14 at 21:30, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate on January 15 at 01:00, and the European Central Bank's release of the monetary policy meeting minutes on January 15 at 20:30 [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.930 | 0.08% T主力成交量 | 77005 | 22932↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.655 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 60586 | 16070↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.334 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 29841 | -1394↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.270 | -0.04% TL主力成交量 | 157285 | 67912↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.34 | 0.16↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.07 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.28 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.01 | -0.01↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.60 | -0.08↓ | | | TS260 ...