Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, EB2511 fluctuated strongly and closed around 6928. The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased due to the continuous shutdown of an 800,000 - tonne device of Guangdong Petrochemical and the new maintenance of two 1.2 - million - tonne devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical last week. The downstream operating rates fluctuated slightly. Factory and East China port inventories decreased month - on - month, while South China port inventory increased. The non - integrated cost of styrene increased month - on - month due to the rise in pure benzene and ethylene prices. Large domestic devices are taking turns for maintenance, and this maintenance cycle may last for several months. The 800,000 - tonne device of Guangdong Petrochemical will restart this week, and a 620,000 - tonne device of Zhenhai Liande plans to shut down, so production and capacity utilization may rise periodically. The commissioning of new devices is postponed to October, and the supply pressure of styrene in September shows a downward trend. The load of EPS, PS, and ABS devices is expected to be slightly adjusted this week. Inventory has returned to the destocking cycle, but the current inventory pressure is still high. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply - demand is weak, but the US sanctions on some oil - producing countries may be upgraded, and international oil prices rose significantly yesterday. In the short term, EB2511 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and technically, attention should be paid to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6845 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 7034 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures trading volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 6928 lots; the closing price of the active contract was 245,568 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 11,208 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 411,907 lots, and the net long positions were - 29,310 lots with a month - on - month increase of 135 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders were 441,217 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 905 lots. The closing price of the November contract was 6928 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 58 yuan/ton. The futures open interest (active: trading volume) was 399,631 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 855 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. CFR China intermediate price was 865 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6800 yuan/ton (unchanged), 7075 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6820 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton), and 6870 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 846 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 841 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 6 US dollars/ton). The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 248 US cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 722.17 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the FOB price in Rotterdam was 657 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 US dollars/ton). The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China were 5900 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5840 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5950 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 73.44%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. The national styrene inventory was 216,283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3994 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 186,500 tons, and the trade inventory was 98,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 20,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 61.74% (a month - on - month increase of 0.72%), 69.8% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%), 61.2% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%), 34% (unchanged), and 70.43% (a month - on - month increase of 0.86%) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the weekly styrene output decreased by 2.03% month - on - month to 346,800 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.54% month - on - month to 73.44%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.14% month - on - month to 278,300 tons. As of September 18th, the styrene factory inventory decreased by 1.81% month - on - month to 216,300 tons; as of September 22nd, the East China port inventory increased by 17.30% month - on - month to 186,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 37.61% month - on - month to 13,600 tons. As of September 17th, the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7548 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 368 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record - high of 16.814 billion bushels, and the ending stocks will also reach the highest level in seven years. With the progress of US corn harvest, the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the early harvest results are mixed, leading to an expectation of a possible downward adjustment in US corn production. In the domestic market, the new grain harvest area in Liaoning and Heilongjiang in the Northeast region is expanding, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high. As the supply of new corn increases, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the losses of deep - processing enterprises are intensifying, and the purchase price has been lowered. The new - season corn listing still restricts the futures market [2]. - For corn starch, the market is currently weak, and enterprises are still in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is generally low. Due to a slight improvement in pre - holiday demand, the inventory continues to decline. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a weekly decrease of 61,000 tons, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of tapioca starch and wheat starch are still significant, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although there has been a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient, and the corn starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures was 2,469 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 425.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents. The net long non - commercial position of CBOT corn decreased by 36,169 contracts, and the total position increased by 51,949 contracts [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2,164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 251 contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, up 0.78 yuan; the average price of imported corn was 1,939.55 yuan/ton, down 0.47 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun was 2,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 425.26 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields were 35.89 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 1.5 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports decreased by 55,000 tons to 601,000 tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory decreased by 147,000 tons to 2.34 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 29.272 million tons, and the corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption decreased by 1,100 tons to 115,630 tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 50.31% [2]. - The starch enterprise operating rate increased by 2.21 percentage points to 50.36%, and the corn starch processing profit in Hebei was 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The historical volatility of corn in 20 days was 10%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 22, the grain export volume of Ukraine in the 2025/26 season was 5.82 million tons, higher than 5.251 million tons a week ago but lower than 9.764 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - Private exporters reported selling 122,947 tons of US corn to Mexico, with 100,593 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season and 22,354 tons in the 2026/27 season [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Although the supply of industrial silicon has decreased due to the reduction in the start - up rate, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged. The demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is generally flat. The current industry inventory is still high, and the upward momentum of industrial silicon prices will gradually weaken after reaching 9000. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the position of the main contract is 270,931 lots, down 2765 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,515 lots, up 224 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 49,963 lots, up 161 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 480 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,120 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1337.59 tons, up 1220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2635.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons [2]. Industry News - On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in the Hetian Kungang Economic and Technological Development Zone (Non - ferrous Metal Industrial Park) in Luopu County, Hetian Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current start - up rate of industrial silicon is 33.12%, down 1.91% month - on - month. There are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region, and some enterprises plan to cut production. Most manufacturers in the southwest will operate until the end of October and have no plans to resume production. In the northwest region, manufacturers have stable start - up rates, especially in Yili, where large factories have expectations of resuming production. However, the overall oversupply situation has not improved [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the market is declining, profits are decreasing, and the expectation of production increase is declining, with a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, inventory and start - up rates are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. But due to limited price increases in downstream links and expected contraction in long - term photovoltaic market demand, the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon may be restricted. In the aluminum alloy field, inventory is rising, prices are flat, the start - up situation is stable, but demand is average, with limited pulling effect on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to face pressure, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. It is recommended to buy soda ash main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. - The supply and demand of glass remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1307 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1237 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1398447 hands, down 17058 hands; glass main contract position is 1316149 hands, up 248 hands [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 250293, up 25073; glass top 20 net position is - 87318, up 107221. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3727 tons, up 1598 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 127 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; glass basis is - 157 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 119, up 10; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 87, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.53%, down 1.76%; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 16.02 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.57 million tons, down 5.99 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6090.8 million heavy boxes, down 67.5 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 39801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27693.54 million square meters, up 2659.54 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The ministries jointly issued a notice on the steady growth of the building materials industry, including strict control of cement and glass production capacity, promotion of capacity replacement, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to be under pressure, but there may be changes with "anti - involution" speculation [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2]. Prompt Attention - For soda ash, it is recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks. For glass, it is also recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the layer hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from newly - laying hens due to previous restocking, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has led to an increase in the laying rate of hens, further intensifying the supply pressure. However, pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day has increased the purchasing volume of traders, showing a certain degree of recovery in market demand, which has pushed egg prices to rebound from the bottom and supported the futures market. Overall, high production capacity pressure persists. As the double festivals approach, pre - holiday stocking may be coming to an end, market sales are starting to slow down, and spot prices show signs of a slight decline. The driving force for pushing up the futures price is insufficient, and short - term trading is recommended in the near future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Eggs (daily, yuan/500 kilograms) is 3056, with a decrease of 9; net long position of the top 20 futures holders: Eggs (daily, lots) is 7407, with a decrease of 2691; egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5): (daily, yuan/500 kilograms) is - 38, with a decrease of 5; futures open interest (active contract): Eggs (daily, lots) is 362521, with a decrease of 8563; registered warehouse receipt volume: Eggs (daily, lots) is 0, with no change [2] 现货市场 - Egg spot price (daily, yuan/jin) is 3.73, with no change; basis (spot - futures) (daily, yuan/500 kilograms) is 673, with an increase of 14 [2] Upstream Situation - Laying hen inventory index: National (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 114.4, with an increase of 1.22; culled laying hen index: National (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 93.61, with a decrease of 5.59; average price in main producing areas: Pullets (weekly, yuan/chick) is 2.6, with no change; new chick index: National (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 73.35, with a decrease of 5.05; average price: Layer feed (weekly, yuan/kilogram) is 2.76, with no change; layer farming profit (weekly, yuan/bird) is 0.17, with an increase of 0.19; average price in main producing areas: Culled hens (weekly, yuan/kilogram) is 9.34, with an increase of 0.12; culled hen age: National (monthly, days) is 510, with a decrease of 2 [2] Industry Situation - Average wholesale price: 28 key monitored vegetables (daily, yuan/kilogram) is 19.6, with an increase of 0.03; average wholesale price: Pork (daily, yuan/kilogram) is 5.08, with an increase of 0.05; average wholesale price: White - striped chickens (daily, yuan/kilogram) is 17.96, with an increase of 0.2; weekly inventory in the circulation link (weekly, days) is 0.99, with a decrease of 0.04; weekly inventory in the production link (weekly, days) is 0.91, with a decrease of 0.02; export volume: Fresh eggs: Monthly value (monthly, tons) is 13121.03, with an increase of 264.92 [2] Downstream Situation - Weekly egg consumption in the sales area (weekly, tons) is 7303, with a decrease of 149 [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.32 yuan/kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.99 yuan/kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.67 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.13 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.46 yuan/kilogram, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5742, up 0.88%. For the silicon ferroalloy, the macro - level sees the joint issuance of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by relevant departments. Supply has increased after profit improvement, with neutral inventory and short - term cost support. The market has a lower tender price. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 24, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5916, up 0.44%. For manganese silicon, macro - level includes diplomatic activities. Fundamentally, production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. The iron - water demand has recovered. The market has a lower final pricing. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese Silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,916.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; SF (Silicon Ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,742.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 529,129.00 hands, down 9,301.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 369,202.00 hands, down 1,439.00 hands [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net positions were - 69,893.00 hands, down 842.00 hands; Silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net positions were - 32,705.00 hands, down 680.00 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 60,014.00 sheets, up 517.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 17,779.00 sheets, up 547.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,720.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 262.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; the SM主力合约基差 was - 196.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Guangdong issued an emergency notice on typhoon "Huajiaisha" prevention, implementing "five - stop" measures in key affected areas [2]. - US President Trump made statements on Russia - related issues, including tariff threats and NATO's response to Russian aircraft [2]. - Russia's energy ministry deputy said it might further restrict fuel exports and extended the gasoline export ban to the end of September, with possible extension to October [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshang met with Ray Dalio, and they exchanged views on the international economic situation and financial market dynamics [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For silicon ferroalloy on September 24, the 2511 contract was at 5,742, up 0.88%. The macro - level has a steel industry plan. Supply has increased, inventory is neutral, and costs are supported. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The 9 - month Hebei Iron and Steel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on September 24, the 2601 contract was at 5,916, up 0.44%. The macro - level has diplomatic activities. Production has been rising, inventory has increased, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 9 - month silicon manganese final price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 作上，建议短多介入为主。 免责声明 苹果产业日报 2025-09-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 48 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 8336 2435 | 1735 | 99400 | 12211 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | | 2.3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 0 | | | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.0 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on September 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,921 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 617.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.1 Canadian dollars; Rapeseed (active contract) was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 484 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 76 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 306,205 lots, down 21,837 lots; Rapeseed meal was 398,111 lots, down 2,822 lots [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 17,791 lots, down 5,331 lots; Rapeseed meal was - 73,204 lots, down 32,651 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 8,057 pieces, down 125 pieces; Rapeseed meal was 9,245 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,035 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Imported rapeseed cost price was 7,704.6 yuan/ton, up 65.5 yuan [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.06; Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Rapeseed meal main contract basis was 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1,620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 950 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 450 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.58 million tons (monthly, in millions of tons), up 0.04 million tons; Annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly import volume was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 947 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: Total weekly inventory was 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of related products: Monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; Monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Inventory in coastal areas: Rapeseed oil was 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - Inventory in different regions: In East China, rapeseed oil was 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; In Guangxi, rapeseed oil was 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; In South China, rapeseed meal was 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: Monthly feed production was 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; Monthly edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] - Consumption: Monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal call option was 18.89%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed meal put option was 18.88%, up 0.07%; Rapeseed oil call option was 14.24%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed oil put option was 14.24%, up 0.11% [2] - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 24.01%, up 0.41%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 2. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE rapeseed futures rose, ending the recent continuous decline. The November contract closed up 7.20 Canadian dollars at 617.60 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract rose 7.80 Canadian dollars to 631.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - U.S. soybeans entered the harvest season, and the expected high yield continued to restrain the U.S. soybean market price. The call between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to break the deadlock in Sino - U.S. soybean trade, and the export demand of U.S. soybeans remained highly uncertain. Argentina announced the cancellation of agricultural product export tariffs, which may further intensify international market competition [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - International factors: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest season, and the high - yield is gradually realized. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates the rapeseed crop output at 2 million tons, the highest level since 2018, which puts pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: The arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing the supply pressure. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken the long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation of rapeseed meal. Frequent trade policy news makes the market trading cautious. In the face of Argentina's tax - free impact, rapeseed meal follows soybean meal to weaken, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - International factors: The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: This year's festival stockpiling is lower than in previous years, and the overall consumption support is limited. The supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil are still relatively loose, which continues to restrain the short - term market price. However, for rapeseed oil itself, the operating rate of oil mills remains low, the output pressure of rapeseed oil is small. The purchase of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, and the supply - side pressure is low. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which still restricts purchases. It is expected that the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter will continue to be tight. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil will generally be supported [2] 5. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate reported by Myagric on Monday and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Sino - U.S. trade relations [2]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong contracted on a month-on-month basis. The chlor-alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple sets of equipment such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise month-on-month [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet experienced cost-driven production cuts, their purchasing intention has significantly weakened. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non-aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre-National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the recent market sentiment has declined, and the sharp decline in the futures price has led to the convergence of the basis. From the fourth quarter to early next year, the commissioning of new alumina plants will still support the demand. Attention should be paid to the subsequent stocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should focus on the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 2500 [3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main caustic soda contract was 112,252 lots, a decrease of 3789 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders was -8138 lots, an increase of 880 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 346,437 lots, a decrease of 73,773 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Industry News Summary - From September 12th to 18th, the average national capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 81.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month-on-month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month-on-month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - As of September 18th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide increased by 6.02% month-on-month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1224.5, up 1.24%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, converted to the futures price of 1146. The market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. [2] - On September 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1730.0, up 1.14%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan. [2] - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 925071.00 hands, down 13793.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 increased to 52619.00 hands, up 386.00 hands. [2] - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓 decreased to - 121173.00 hands, down 4020.00 hands; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓 increased to - 5586.00 hands, up 1.00 hand. [2] - JM5 - 1月合约价差 decreased to 87.50 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; J5 - 1月合约价差 decreased to 141.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan. [2] - 焦煤仓单 remained at 0.00; 焦炭仓单 increased to 1690.00, up 150.00. [2] Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤 price rose to 1040.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; 唐山一级冶金焦 price remained at 1665.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货 price remained at 151.50 dollars/wet ton; 日照港准一级冶金焦 price remained at 1470.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤 price remained at 1630.00 yuan/ton; 天津港一级冶金焦 price remained at 1570.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 京唐港山西产主焦煤 price rose to 1680.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; 天津港准一级冶金焦 price remained at 1470.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦 price remained at 1270.00 yuan/ton; J主力合约基差 decreased to - 65.00 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan. [2] - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价 remained at 1080.00 yuan/ton; JM主力合约基差 decreased to 45.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量 increased to 27.50 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; 314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存 increased to 310.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons. [2] - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 increased to 0.38%, up 0.01%; 原煤产量 increased to 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 million tons. [2] - 煤及褐煤进口量 increased to 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00 million tons; 523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量 increased to 190.00 thousand tons, up 4.40 thousand tons. [2] - 16个港口进口焦煤库存 increased to 515.32 million tons, up 48.97 million tons; 焦炭18个港口库存 increased to 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 million tons. [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存 increased to 940.41 million tons, up 56.87 million tons; 独立焦企全样本焦炭库存 decreased to 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 million tons. [2] National Industry Situation - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存 decreased to 790.34 million tons, down 3.39 million tons; 全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存 increased to 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 million tons. [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数 decreased to 12.74 days, down 0.07 days; 247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数 increased to 11.42 days, up 0.13 days. [2] - 炼焦煤进口量 increased to 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50 million tons; 焦炭及半焦炭出口量 decreased to 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 million tons. [2] - 炼焦煤产量 increased to 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; 独立焦企产能利用率 decreased to 75.87%, down 0.05%. [2] - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况 decreased to - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00 yuan/ton; 焦炭产量 increased to 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 million tons. [2] National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 increased to 84.00%, up 0.15%; 247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 increased to 90.38%, up 0.18%. [2] - 粗钢产量 decreased to 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons. [2] Industry News - From October 1 to 7, 2025, the three major import ports (Ganqimao, Ceke, and Mandula) will be closed and resume normal clearance on October 8. The closure is expected to affect Mongolian coal imports by about 187.56 million tons. [2] - Guangdong issued an emergency notice to prepare for Typhoon "Huajiacha", implementing "five - stop" measures in affected areas. [2] - US President Trump made statements regarding Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. [2] - Russia may further restrict fuel exports and has extended the gasoline export ban until the end of September, with possible extension to October. [2]