铝类产业日报 2025/9/25 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,765.00 | +60.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,942.00 | +35.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -5.00 220,640.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -674.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -33.00 303,116.00 | -7.00↓ -15757.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the silicon iron 2511 contract was reported at 5786, up 0.94%. The market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 25, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5938, up 0.47%. The market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM main - contract closing price: 5938 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF main - contract closing price: 5786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions: 529,129 hands, down 9301 hands; SF futures contract positions: 369,202 hands, down 1439 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net positions: - 70,716 hands, down 823 hands; Silicon - iron top 20 net positions: - 33,704 hands, down 999 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 42 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 102 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 59,475 sheets, down 539 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 17,710 sheets, down 69 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5480 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5717 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; SF main - contract basis: - 306 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - SM main - contract basis: - 198 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - South African ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port): 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 452.5 tons, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 45.68%, down 1.7%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 208,775 tons, down 5355 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 113,100 tons, up 100 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 63,390 tons, down 6550 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 14.98, up 0.74; Silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (in days): 14.67, up 0.42 [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 121,426 tons, down 888 tons; Five major steel types' silicon - iron demand: 19,588.6 tons, down 148.8 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84%, up 0.15%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - On September 24, the US announced to lower the tariff on EU - imported cars to 15%, effective August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were punished and ordered to suspend operations for up to 60 days [2]. - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the steady - growth work plan for the building materials industry from 2025 - 2026, proposing strict control of cement and glass production capacity [2]. - World Steel Association data showed that global crude steel output in August was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and from January to August, it decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in domestic urea daily production is due to the resumption of some previously shut - down plants, and there are no planned plant shutdowns this week, with 2 - 5 shut - down plants expected to resume production. Considering the equipment changes in the current period, this week's production has increased significantly [2]. - The market support for urea is limited. Agricultural demand is scattered, with only a small increase in local areas. Industrial demand is stable, but the production of compound fertilizer's autumn fertilizer is in the later stage, and demand in most parts of North China is weakening, with more enterprises likely to reduce production or shut down, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline slightly [2]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, urea factories are starting to accept orders for the holiday. Leading factories in major production and sales areas have lowered their quotes to stimulate downstream purchasing. There is continued concentrated export through ports, and some urea enterprises' export orders will be fulfilled by the end of this month [2]. - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase. Although there are differences in inventory changes among enterprises, the overall inventory is on the rise. Currently, there are few urea flow directions, and rigid demand has not increased significantly. In the short term, it is expected to show a slight increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 301,894 lots, an increase of 1,736 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 46,677 lots, a decrease of 3,648 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7,535, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1650 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, and 1620 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price in Henan is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 387.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 417.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 51.6 tons, a decrease of 3.34 tons from the previous week. The enterprise inventory is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 81.22%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The daily urea output is 190,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, an increase of 109.21 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.54% [2]. - As of September 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 49.63 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 3.82%. During this period, there are both cargo arrivals and departures at the ports [2]. - As of September 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 140.15 tons, an increase of 7.15 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 5.38%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 85.58%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points from the previous period [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, with increased production and more external resources of raw material butadiene. There is a lack of positive factors in cost and supply, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. [2] - Near the National Day holiday, downstream terminals may start to pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The snow - tire orders of semi - steel tires in the domestic market are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall operation, while the demand in the replacement market of all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may decline slightly. [2] - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11390 - 11850. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11545 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the position volume is 51154, with a week - on - week decrease of 7496. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all increased by 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil is 69.31 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.99 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.58 dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 606 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1060 dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 85 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton. [2] - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.37 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory is 7820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds, while demand is weakening as terminal demand is soft and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. However, the market is affected by news, and polysilicon is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon has a narrow - range oscillation, with technical indicators showing signs of turning bullish, and short - term bullish performance is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main position is 105,474 lots, down 5,713 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 40 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,310 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,980 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 pieces, up 6,914,640 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/piece, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting an energy - consumption red line for polysilicon production enterprises. There have been several polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing the purchase - storage policy and production/ sales restrictions [2]

工业硅产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 9055 | 35 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 270931 | -2765 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -64683 | 2832 广期所仓单(日,手) | 49925 | -38 | | | 12月合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | -395 | 5 11-12月合约工业硅 | -395 | 5 | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9500 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -35 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11120 | 0 | | | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan region, rainfall disturbances persist, and with strong procurement demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. Typhoon "Hagasa" brought heavy rainfall to the Hainan region, significantly affecting tapping operations, restricting the output of fresh latex, tightening the supply of local raw materials, and limiting the actual procurement volume of local rubber processing plants by processing plants. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao ports continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The bonded warehouses continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to accumulate inventory slightly. Overseas shipments arrived at the port and were concentrated in storage. The inbound volume of Qingdao warehouses increased significantly and exceeded expectations. Previously, downstream tire factories gradually picked up and shipped out orders, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of bonded warehouses was better than that of general trade warehouses, and general trade warehouses continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of snow tires for semi - steel tires had concentrated production scheduling, and some enterprises moderately increased production, which still provided some support for the overall operation rate. The demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires did not improve significantly, and some enterprises faced pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still faced shortages, the enterprise equipment operated stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales performance fell short of expectations, and the inventory of some enterprises still showed signs of increase. To relieve the pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - rubber was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,529 lots, a decrease of 799 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 51,920 lots, a decrease of 2,296 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,840 lots, a decrease of 1,019 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 1,525 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 153,570 tons, a decrease of 2,260 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 44,756 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR 9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of RSS3 in Thailand was 59.35 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.38 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 57.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber latex was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 7.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 151 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber was 11.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 26.84 million tons, an increase of 0.89 million tons. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 280,000 pieces, an increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.806 million pieces, an increase of 1.303 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.59%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.17%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.31%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.33%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 461,200 tons (the previous total inventory was 464,700 tons after inventory adjustment), a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons after inventory adjustment), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons after inventory adjustment), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing trading volume and an increasing open interest; the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia under Freeport encountered a mudslide accident and suspended operations, which will have a significant impact on global copper production in Q4 2025 and in the future, and global copper ore supply may become tighter. On the supply side, the tight supply of raw materials and the recent decline in copper prices due to the Fed's interest - rate cut will limit smelters' profit margins, and domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. On the demand side, the slight decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and combined with the pre - holiday inventory demand, domestic demand has increased, and social inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.19, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0833, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,710 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,750 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,367.50 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 31 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 238,523 lots, a daily increase of 66,079 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a daily decrease of 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, a weekly increase of 11,760 tons. The LME copper canceled warrants were 11,775 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 82,505 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,460 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 82,445 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,375 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.50 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 4.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was - 205 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 290 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.37 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 41.74 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, a monthly increase of 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 40.80 US dollars/thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.50 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,340 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,040 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, a monthly increase of 310,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,440 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 70 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, a monthly increase of 526,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a monthly decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.32%, a daily increase of 6.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.22%, a daily increase of 3.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 13.13%, a daily increase of 0.0011 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, a daily decrease of 0.0833 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest - rate cuts, expressing concerns about inflation and not supporting rate cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market had slowed, and inflation was lower than expected, so further rate cuts might be needed. On September 24, mining giant Freeport disclosed that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident on September 8, which caused casualties and damaged mining facilities. The mine has suspended operations. Preliminary assessment shows that this may lead to significant production delays in the near term (Q4 2025 and 2026), and operations may return to pre - incident levels in 2027. Freeport's comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower than the July 2025 estimate. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and stated that China, as a responsible developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. Li Qiang met with European Commission President von der Leyen in New York, hoping that the EU would fulfill its commitment to keep trade and investment markets open, adhere to fair competition and WTO rules, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2].

生猪产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | | 12685 | -45 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 89538 | -1281 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | | 328 | -40 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -24074 | -1605 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | | 12800 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | | 13400 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 115 | 45 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | | -0.4 | -0.4 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. - The inventory of SHFE is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [3]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3]. - The average operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged [3]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680,000 units, up 1,925,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly output of automobiles is 2,752,400 units, up 242,400 units [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,333,000 units, up 157,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut [3]. - FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate cuts may be needed [3]. - The US has officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [3]. - The US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery [3]. - The Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Some primary lead smelting enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions are in the centralized maintenance stage, the raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to decline [3]. - The production of primary lead continues to decline. The release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down due to environmental inspections and lower waste battery recycling efficiency [3]. - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand for lead in emerging energy storage fields is showing a good trend [3]. - Although the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved marginally, the overall demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [3].