热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,332 | +69↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1377887 | +103802↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -17,707 | -39959↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increased month-on-month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire companies had holiday maintenance and closures. Except for a small amount of low - price replenishment, most companies were mainly on the sidelines and cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume of Qingdao Port led to a significant increase in the total inventory of Qingdao Port. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises for about 3 days and the gradual resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 16,180 yuan/ton, with a change of +10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai Rubber was 130 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,150 yuan/ton, with a change of -50 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a change of -15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber increased by 513 lots to 200,122 lots, and the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,702 lots to 72,732 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber decreased by 1,895 lots to -50,296 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 1,498 lots to -14,041 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber increased by 2,500 tons to 103,190 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,007 tons to 56,952 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,950 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,915 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was -430 yuan/ton, with a change of -30 yuan/ton; the basis of the non - standard product of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was -1,000 yuan/ton, with a change of -60 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,368 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 218 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.59 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.52 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -17.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.55%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.35%, with a decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.95%, with an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.78%, with an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold approximately 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - As of the current incomplete statistics, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, with significant differences in the current sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, an increase of 7 compared to the same period. In December, the sugar production in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, and the white sugar price fluctuated slightly stronger [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for white sugar was 5281 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 22; the main contract position was 439,946 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 12,538 and a decrease of 9,316; the number of warehouse receipts was 6,005, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was -81,404 lots; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,029 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,074 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9 [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,103 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,162 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugarcane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, with a decrease of 5.49; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 1,228 million tons, with a decrease of 4; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 4.48 million tons, with a decrease of 237.4; the total sugar exports from Brazil were 291.3 million tons, with a decrease of 38.9; the monthly import volume of sugar was 44 million tons, with a decrease of 31; the cumulative import volume of sugar was 434 million tons, with an increase of 44 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, with an increase of 42; the monthly production of soft drinks was 1,045.7 million tons, with a decrease of 50.5 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for white sugar was 8.61%, with a decrease of 0.53; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for white sugar was 8.62%, with a decrease of 0.49; the 20-day historical volatility of white sugar was 10.93%, with a decrease of 0.2; the 60-day historical volatility of white sugar was 7.95%, with a decrease of 0.03 [2] Industry News - According to the data of the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association, as of December 31, 2025, the total sugar production in India was approximately 12 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to 9.5 million tons in the same period last year. Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed one after another, with a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in India. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand had produced 1.0005 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 166,700 tons year-on-year. As of December 15, Indian sugarcane had produced 7.79 million tons of sugar, a 28% increase year-on-year [2]

Report Title - Plastic Industry Daily Report 2026-01-07 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6460 and the pressure around 6760. The total inventory of PE maintains a de - stocking trend with little pressure. Oil - based process costs decrease and losses are reduced, while coal - based process costs remain stable and profits are repaired. In January, new domestic PE production capacity continues to increase, and low - priced overseas resources continue to flow in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. The demand for agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand for packaging film is limited and difficult to form demand support [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6642 yuan/ton, with a change of 63. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices are 6430 yuan/ton (change: 101), 6642 yuan/ton (change: 63), and 6687 yuan/ton (change: 69) respectively. The trading volume is 566498 lots (change: 108635), and the open interest is 505678 lots (change: - 2207). The 1 - 5 spread is - 212 (change: 38). The buy orders, sell orders, and net buy orders of the top 20 futures positions are 430624 lots (change: - 1454), 496022 lots (change: 6601), and - 65398 lots (change: - 8055) respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China is 6542.17 yuan/ton (change: 61.3), and in East China is 6603.95 yuan/ton (change: 53.26). The basis is - 99.83 (change: - 1.7) [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 56.74 US dollars/barrel (change: 1.44), the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 534.25 US dollars/ton (change: 11.75). The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 726 US dollars/ton (change: 0), and in Northeast Asia is 746 US dollars/ton (change: 0) [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.23% (change: 0.59%) [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.41% (change: 0.19%), 30.17% (change: - 0.5%), and 38.95% (change: - 4.91%) respectively [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 17.83% (change: 0.34) and 14.13% (change: 0.26) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene are 14.32% (change: 0.58) and 14.31% (change: 0.55) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE factory operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 4.91% to 38.95%, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.19% to 48.41%. As of January 2, the PE factory inventory was 37.07 tons, a decrease of 19.17% from last week, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.76% from last week. From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton, the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton. Recently, the 250,000 - ton device of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The short - term BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to rise slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate has a slight increase. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate and is much higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic petroleum benzene profit has recovered from a low level and maintains a repair trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 5464 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the settlement price is 5451 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 18209 lots, with an increase of 8485 lots, and the open interest is 28809 lots, up 238 lots. Market prices vary by region, with the mainstream price in the East China market at 5295 yuan/ton, in the North China market at 5220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), in the South China market at 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in the Northeast at 5225 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in the domestic market has different values in different regions. The Korean FOB intermediate price is 659 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and the Chinese CFR intermediate price is 668.22 dollars/ton, up 2.34 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 63.48 dollars/barrel, up 0.38 dollars/barrel, and the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 75.18%, up 0.29 percentage points, and the weekly output is 43.55 tons, down 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 30 tons, up 2.7 tons. The production cost is 4993.25 yuan/ton, down 115.75 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 332 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene is 70.23%, down 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 75.52%, up 1.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 79.73%, up 1.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 59.81%, down 3.17 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 68.2%, up 4.6 percentage points. From December 27 to January 2, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34% [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. As of January 5, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 31.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.00%. As of January 4, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]

沪镍产业日报 2026-01-07 求端，不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 小幅需求增量。国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存增长放缓。技 术面，持仓增加价格上涨，多头氛围较强。观点参考：预计短线沪镍强势运行，关注MA5支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 147720 | 7920 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -530 | -3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The styrene market is gradually shifting from a tight balance to a wide balance in January, with weak supply - demand drivers. The short - term EB2602 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 6700 - 6900 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6828 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the trading volume is 340567, up 85359; the long position of the top 20 holders is 353376 hands, down 7848 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 39597 hands, down 6094 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders is 392973 hands, down 1754 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts is 200 hands, unchanged. The closing price of the March contract is 6895 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 278675 hands, down 21449 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6792 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 848 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 858 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6575 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 7015 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6725 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 6875 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 746 dollars/ton (unchanged), 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), 670 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars), and 430 dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan, Rotterdam, and the US Gulf are 661.17 dollars/ton (unchanged), 798 dollars/ton (up 34 dollars), and 274 cents/gallon (up 2 cents) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5295 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and 5220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Conditions - The overall styrene operating rate is 70.23%, down 0.47%. The national styrene inventory is 171760 tons, up 800 tons; the total inventory at the main ports in East China is 13.23 tons, down 0.65 tons; the trade inventory at the main ports in East China is 7.73 tons, down 0.6 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 43.64% (down 8.92%), 69.9% (up 0.5%), 60.4% (up 1.8%), 36% (down 2%), and 80.52% (up 1.14%) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 26 to January 1, the styrene factory output was 35.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The operating rates of downstream EPS, PS, ABS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber changed from December 26 to January 1. As of December 25, the styrene factory inventory was 17.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. As of January 5, the inventory at East China ports was 13.23 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%; the inventory at South China ports was 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.16%. On January 4, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton; on December 31, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the iron ore market, with a reminder to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. The macro - environment features a continued moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which boosts market confidence. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise. Although ports are in a stock - piling trend, mill inventories are at a medium - low level, with potential for future stockpiling. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 828.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan. The position volume is 666,581 hands, up 25,713 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 23.5 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 15,395 hands, up 4,518 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 1,800.00 hands, down 600.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 109 US dollars/ton, up 2.53 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 869 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 868 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port is 771 yuan/dry ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) is 106.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 2.97, down 0.07. The estimated import cost is 861 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,213.70 tons, down 463.40 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,824.70 tons, up 96.90 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 16,721.79 tons, up 101.83 tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,946.54 tons, up 86.35 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,054.00 tons, down 77.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.56 tons, down 0.25 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00 tons, down 45.90 tons. The BDI index is 1,830.00, down 21.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.20 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars. The iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.13 US dollars/ton, down 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.96%, up 0.66%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.95%, up 3.10%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 14.73%, up 2.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 17.24%, up 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.72%, up 2.82% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.1 tons, showing a slight rebound. The current inventory is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter. On January 5, Australian iron ore producer Fenix Resources released its Q4 2025 operations update. The company shipped 1.241 million wet tons of iron ore in the quarter, breaking through one million tons in a single quarter for the first time and setting a new record [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently facing multiple shocks, with a significant increase in adjustment pressure. The better-than-expected recovery of the manufacturing PMI in December may lead to a marginal improvement in the economic data of that month, weakening the fundamental support and reducing the short - term necessity of loose monetary policy. - After the holiday, the strong performance of the equity market has intensified the liquidity pressure on the bond market. - In January, the issuance scale of government bonds has increased compared with the same period last year, but the market allocation power remains weak, and the ultra - long bonds have continued to rise under the supply pressure. - In the short term, interest rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On January 7, 2026, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL futures all declined, with decreases of 0.08%, 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.44% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL were 86,507, 69,708, 50,979, and 122,870 respectively, with increases of 3,627, 640, 7,144, and 15,230 respectively compared to the previous period. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2606 and TS2603 - 2606 decreased, while others like T03 - TL03, T2603 - 2606, etc. increased. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TS decreased by 1,119, 1,320, and 2,839 respectively, while the position of TL increased by 4,241. The net short positions of T and TS increased, while that of TF decreased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all declined. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10 - year active treasury bonds mostly increased, with the 1 - year yield remaining unchanged, and the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increasing by 3.25bp, 2.75bp, 2.35bp, and 2.15bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 14.39bp, while the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.30bp. The 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 3.00bp, while the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.80bp. The 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.00bp, while the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 1.20bp. - **LPR Rates**: Both the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 7, 2026, the issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 286 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 5,288 billion yuan, with a net回笼 of 5,002 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations. [2] 3.5 Industry News - **Monetary Policy**: The 2026 China People's Bank of China Work Conference was held from January 5th to 6th. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity, and strengthen financial support for key areas. - **Foreign Exchange Management**: The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference was held in Beijing, aiming to create a more convenient, open, safe, and intelligent foreign exchange policy environment. - **Trade Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users, military purposes, and other end - user purposes that contribute to enhancing Japan's military strength. [2] 3.6 Overseas Situation - The US raided Venezuela and arrested Maduro, causing geopolitical shocks. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in December 2025 unexpectedly dropped to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, indicating continuous manufacturing contraction. - The minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed differences among officials, but most participants believed that if inflation declined as expected, future monetary policy would be further relaxed. [4]

加贸易关系和放开澳菜籽商业采买的可能。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9095 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2419 | 29 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 14 | -38 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 ...