的袭击，俄乌冲突反复不断，美国政府债务风波持续，结构性利空美元，美元持续偏弱运行，为金价提供 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 较强支撑。往后看，金银价快速突破重要关口后或面临上行阻力，回调压力或逐渐增加，后续进入阶段性 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 盘整的概率或较大。操作上建议，区间波段交易为主，短期内注意回调风险。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 860 | 4.56 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 10397 | 48 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 274765 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-24 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 仓下降价格调整，多空交投分歧，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12895 | 5 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -125 | -5 -7187 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -7775 | 3492 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 116704 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 88233 | -775 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9550 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrate is still tight, and the cost - support logic for copper prices remains. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge, while demand has increased slightly due to the decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,964.50 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 172,444 lots, down 850 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 16,618 lots, down 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, down 400 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,775 tons, down 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 27,419 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,045 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,070 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 59.50 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73.11 dollars/ton, down 0.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,340 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,040 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,314.97 billion yuan, up 404.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.09%, unchanged. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 13.02%, up 0.0008; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.27, down 0.064 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive, and "Fed Whisperer" pointed out that this may open the door for further interest rate cuts. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Chinese diplomats and leaders met with a US congressional delegation, and the Sino - US relationship shows a stabilizing trend. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to cultivate emerging industries and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation center on the spot side is under continuous pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. [2] - Before the National Day holiday, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up. It is expected that buying will gradually pick up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some export pressure. [2] - The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced, and the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 58,650, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,938. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,570 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,550 - 11,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,500 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil is 67.63 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 845 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,060 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.13 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, or - 2.29%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons, or + 5.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

沪镍产业日报 2025-09-24 区间震荡。 操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121450 | 720 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | -20 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15340 | 140 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 85526 | 47533 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -30511 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/9/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,705.00 0.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,907.00 -26.00 | +30.00↑ -6.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 221,314.00 | -4134.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 318,873.00 | -9337.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 111,200.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 174,191.00 | +8919.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,646.00 -6,257.00 | -9.00↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） +608.0 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-09-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1673 | 15 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -51 | 4 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 300158 | -4730 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -43029 | 3584 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7535 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -63 | -15 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 417.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - situation shows that the US September Markit manufacturing and services PMIs declined but remained in expansion, with price moderation. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment and didn't clearly state whether to cut interest rates in October. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will be in the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans phased resumption, and tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was due to multiple factors, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period with slow order recovery. Recently, as tin prices fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and terminal enterprises was released, domestic inventory decreased, and the spot premium rose to 300 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased but the spot premium was at a low level. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions were cautious. It's recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position operations within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 271,650 yuan/ton, up 1,770 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin was - 410 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 34,270 US dollars/ton, up 250 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin was 10,808 lots, down 2,419 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 563 lots, down 1,142 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,575 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 6,988 tons, down 909 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 6,342 tons, down 76 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 271,930 yuan/ton, up 1,070 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract was - 250 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 98 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 258,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 262,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 176,400 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chair Powell said US stock valuations were quite high and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The US September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value hit a two - month low, and the service and composite PMI preliminary values both hit three - month lows but were above the 50 boom - bust line. Growth has slowed since the recent peak in July, and companies reduced recruitment in September [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Follow - There was no news today [3].