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碳酸锂产业链周度数据报告:碳酸锂新仓单增速不佳,供给过剩仍旧将是四月主旋律-20250410
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 13:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and although the futures price of lithium carbonate is relatively strong compared to the entire capital market, the slight decline in the futures price still strengthens the price difference of lithium carbonate, suppressing the enthusiasm for delivering new lithium carbonate goods for warehousing. The growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration is poor. Although downstream demand is strong, there is a lack of marginal increase. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the situation of the futures price under pressure remains unchanged. However, attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: - Lithium ore: The demand for domestic high - priced ore is affected by a wait - and - see attitude. Tariff factors have hit the demand expectation of lithium carbonate, and the demand for high - priced mica ore has been greatly affected [3]. - Lithium salt: The growth rate of warehouse receipts has slowed down, and the pressure of circulating inventory has increased. After the centralized cancellation of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts at the beginning of the month, the growth rate of new warehouse receipts is significantly slower than in previous periods. The high basis still significantly inhibits the enthusiasm for warehousing. The production in March reached a record high, and it is expected to remain at a high level in April, and the supply pressure in the spot market is expected to remain [3]. - Cathode materials and lithium batteries: Exports hit ternary lithium more than lithium iron phosphate. The production schedule of domestic lithium iron phosphate is stable, and the expected impact of tariffs on the demand for ternary lithium materials is stronger than that for lithium iron phosphate [3]. - **Market summary**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the futures price is under pressure, but attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium carbonate balance sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, cumulative balance, sample inventory, and sample change of lithium carbonate from March 2023 to March 2025, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is in a delicate balance [6][8]. - **Lithium hydroxide balance sheet**: It presents the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide from March 2023 to March 2025 [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium spodumene import**: It provides data on the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil) from February 2022 to February 2025 [13][17]. - **Chinese lithium ore**: The wait - and - see attitude has hit high - priced domestic ore. It includes data on domestic lithium ore production, weekly inventory, and market prices of lithium concentrate [18][22]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium salt spot and futures prices**: The price of lithium salt fluctuates narrowly around 75,000 yuan. It provides the market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and their price differences from February 2025 to April 2025, as well as data on the futures closing price and basis of lithium carbonate [24][29]. - **Production cost and profit**: The profit of high - grade lithium mica has been significantly repaired. It shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica from September 2024 to April 2025 [35][39]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: It provides data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2025, including production by grade and raw material [40][49]. - **Operating rate**: It shows an upward trend seasonally. It provides data on the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate (overall and by raw material), and lithium hydroxide from 2022 to 2025 [50][54]. - **Monthly import volume of lithium carbonate**: It provides data on the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile from March 2022 to February 2025 [55][59]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: Attention should be paid to the growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration. It includes data on downstream and smelter inventories, weekly inventories, and the number of futures registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate [60][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium iron phosphate**: The operating rate remains at a high level. It provides data on the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate from 2019 to March 2025 [66][70]. - **Ternary materials**: It provides data on the total production, operating rate, import and export volume of ternary materials from 2019 to March 2025 [71][81]. - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: It includes data on the weekly production of batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium), the production of new energy vehicles (pure electric and plug - in hybrid), and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers from 2021 to March 2025 [82][86]. - **Lithium battery import and export volume**: It provides data on the import, export, net export, and net export growth rate of lithium - ion batteries from October 2022 to February 2025 [88][91].
美国暂停对多国加征关税,短期油价或将由暴跌转向宽幅震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 13:49
【价格】本周国际原油市场在宏观政策博弈加剧的背景下开启史诗级下跌。期初美国公布所谓的"对等关税"政策大幅超出市场预 期,次日中国强硬宣布对美国商品对等加征34%关税作为反击,市场对贸易战及经济衰退的担忧加剧,WTI与布伦特原油两日均暴跌 近7%,清明节后首个工作日SC原油跌停,报510.1元/桶。对此,特朗普9日回应称如果中国不能撤回34%的关税,将对中国再加征50% 的关税,油价随即开启了新一轮探底,SC原油主力合约再度触及447.9元/桶跌停价格,WTI触及56.7美元/桶,为2021年2月以来的最 低水平。10日,特朗普暂停了对多国关税暂停加征,但对中国税率已加征到125%,油价得以大幅反弹。 【供应】OPEC+的超预期增产政策成为油价下跌的催化剂,此前该组织计划自4月起每月仅增产13.8万桶/日,而在4月3日的OPEC+最 新声明中宣布,5月起将原油日产量提高至41.1万桶/日,增幅达原计划的三倍。该决策大幅增产加剧了原油市场供应端过剩的担忧, 助推油价大幅下挫。 【需求】北半球尚处季节性需求淡季,4月原油消费呈现"全球性收缩、区域性分化"特征。短期贸易战冲击与中长期能源转型共振, 在需求端形成"双杀 ...
原油燃料油日报:特朗普欲再向中国加征50%关税,油价难言乐观-20250408
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 11:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, major negative news such as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff", China's strong response, and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase have severely hit the international capital market, leading to a rare capital selling spree and panic in the market. There are no signs of improvement in market sentiment, and there is a possibility of further decline in risk assets [4]. - In the long - term, although the fundamentals of crude oil remain in a pattern of loose supply and demand, the current sharp decline seems too rapid [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary - Trump plans to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw its 34% tariff by April 8, 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce has strongly responded, stating that it will take counter - measures if the US persists [2]. - On April 7, the SC main contract on the domestic market hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. On the international market, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel [2]. - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of a 90 - day tariff suspension led to a sharp rebound in the stock market and oil prices, but they later gave up most of the gains. The EU has proposed a "zero - tariff" agreement and announced phased counter - measures. Geopolitically, the Houthi attack on US warships and the US retaliatory air - strike on Yemen did not improve market sentiment [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected monthly increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. On the demand side, the global trade war risk has weakened the expected demand for crude oil. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels in the week ending March 28 [3]. 3.2. Fuel Oil - On April 7, FU closed at 3057 yuan/ton, LU at 3497 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 207.6 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side. The supply of Russian and Iranian fuel oil is restricted by international trade, but if the geopolitical situation changes, the export channels may reopen. The high - sulfur variety has strong support, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety is not significantly pressured due to the release of refining capacity in China [5]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, most crude oil futures and spot prices declined. For example, SC futures price dropped by 5.89%, WTI by 8.51%, and Brent by 7.81%. Some spot prices like Oman and Dubai dropped by about 14%. Price spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI increased. The US dollar index rose by 1.48%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index declined. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.42% from March 21 to March 28 [7]. Fuel Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, fuel oil futures and spot prices mostly declined. For example, FU futures price dropped by 7.14%, LU by 6.27%, and NYMEX fuel oil by 4.80%. Some spot prices such as IFO380 in Singapore and Rotterdam also decreased. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil decreased by 2.47% from March 21 to March 28 [9]. 3.4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Price - On April 7, the SC main contract hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil decreased by 12.81% to 59.88 dollars/barrel [10]. Outer - market Price - On April 7, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 8.24% to 66.67 dollars/barrel, and other global crude oil spot prices dropped by about 14% [11]. Macro - aspect - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of tariff suspension led to a short - term rebound in the stock market and oil prices. The trade war is intensifying, with the EU proposing a "zero - tariff" agreement and counter - measures. Trump's tariff policy may lead to a tariff rate of nearly 104% between China and the US [12]. Supply - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. A Russian court's ruling may prevent a decline in Kazakhstan's oil exports [14]. Demand - If China's counter - measures are implemented, it may stop importing crude oil from the US. In 2024, China imported 9.63 million tons of crude oil from the US, accounting for about 1.7% of its total imports. Tariffs have limited impact on China's overall crude oil imports but may affect trade flows [15]. Inventory - In the week ending March 28, the US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels, strategic crude oil inventory increased by 285,000 barrels, oil production increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate decreased by 1% to 86%, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.551 million barrels, heating oil inventory increased by 209,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 264,000 barrels [16]. Market Information - US Energy Secretary Wright will visit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Trump said the US will have direct negotiations with Iran, and indirect high - level talks will be held in Oman on April 12. Trump is not satisfied with Russia's attacks on Ukraine and demands fair and reciprocal trade with the EU [17]. 3.5. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers in different regions, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of relevant data [18][21][23]
乙二醇日报:关税博弈持续、市场情绪难修复,乙二醇短线维持低位震荡-20250408
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 11:11
能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 8 日 星期二 关税博弈持续&市场情绪难修复,乙二醇短线维持低位震荡 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日,乙二醇华东现货价格 4270 元/吨,较前一日下跌 210 元/吨。主力合约收盘 4210 元/吨,较前一交易下跌 5.16%。基差 为 100 元/吨。 成本端,特朗普关税政策落地引发国际油价大幅下跌。WTI原 油主力收60.96元/桶,布油收64.36美元/桶。供给端,内蒙古中 化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬,此前该装置于3月23日附近 停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启,此前主产环氧。新疆 一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车,初步预计7月份重启。沙特 一套55万吨装置近期重启,此前于2月份停车检修。沙特一套70万 吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修,预计检修两个月左右。上 海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启,镇海炼化原计划3月底重启, 现推迟至年底,内蒙兖矿40万吨计 ...
贸易战引发成本坍塌、出口冲击,聚酯产业链难脱离负反馈
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 11:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy leads to a sharp decline in international oil prices, and the possibility of trade - war escalation due to tariff issues will continue to impact the commodity market. The overall valuation of PX and PTA has declined, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain may continue to play a role. The short - term industry situation of polyester is severe, and it is necessary to pay attention to the internal structural opportunities in the industrial chain and the tariff negotiation trends of various countries [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Daily Market Summary PX & PTA - PX main contract PX2505 closed at 6392 yuan/ton, down 5.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 71 yuan/ton. PTA main contract PTA2505 closed at 4550 yuan/ton, down 5.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton [1] - Cost - end: Trump's tariff policy led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. WTI crude oil main contract closed at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent oil closed at 64.36 dollars/barrel. Supply - end: Multiple PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans, with PX domestic device operating rate at 77.8% and Asian operating rate at 72.5%, and PTA operating rate around 86.1%. Polyester operating rate is around 93.2%. Demand - end: The total transaction volume of Light Textile City is 750 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction is 863.87 million meters [2] Polyester - The short - fiber main contract PF2505 closed at 6154 yuan/ton, down 5.06% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market is 6560 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 306 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have reduction plans, and the supply - end pressure is expected to be greatly reduced. The restart of bottle - chip maintenance devices has increased the operating rate by 2.88% to 75.26%, and the supply - end is under pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and some spot prices have declined to varying degrees, and there are also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and other indicators. The prices of some products in the industrial chain such as Brent oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol have also changed, and the processing spreads of some products have increased significantly [6][7] 3. Industrial Dynamics Macro Dynamics - The US consumer confidence index dropped to the lowest in more than four years in March. China has launched a series of counter - measures against the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US products and implementing export controls on some rare earths [9] Industry Dynamics - Toray announced that it will stop producing PTA in Japan in 2026 and will turn to external procurement [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the industrial chain, including PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, operating rates, monthly spreads, processing fees, production benefits, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [12][14][15]
碳酸锂日报:碳酸锂下探七万关口,期价运行短期内受到成本支撑-2025-04-08
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 10:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 7th, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated continuously. The main contract LC2505 closed at 71,060 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the average transaction price of battery - grade lithium carbonate down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Last week, the weekly production of lithium carbonate continued to decline but remained at a high level. The weekly production of downstream terminals continued to recover, but the entire market still faced significant inventory pressure. Meanwhile, the registration speed of new lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was slow, increasing the pressure on the circulation market [1]. - In the futures market, affected by tariff factors, the LC2505 contract of lithium carbonate futures tested the 70,000 - yuan integer mark and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong in the overall market. The cost support at the lower level was tested periodically [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On April 7th, the main contract LC2505 of lithium carbonate futures closed at 71,060 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the previous trading day. The average transaction price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - From March 28th, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,318 tons, a 3.50% decrease from the previous week. As of March 14th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 127,910 tons, a 1.20% increase. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 14.48 GWh, a 6.94% increase [1]. - From March 1st - 31st, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market increased by 39% year - on - year and 44% month - on - month. The wholesale of new - energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 40% year - on - year and 36% month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring | Indicator | April 3rd | April 7th | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate main contract price (yuan/ton) | 73,160 | 71,060 | - 2,100 | - 2.87% | | Basis (yuan/ton) | 940 | 2,740 | 1,800 | - | | Main monthly spread (05 - 07) (yuan/ton) | - 300 | - 220 | 80 | - | | Cancellation monthly spread (07 - 08) (yuan/ton) | - 1,320 | - 1,060 | 260 | - | | Main contract positions (lots) | 199,448 | 179,831 | - 19,617 | - 9.84% | | Main contract trading volume (lots) | 81,717 | 154,107 | 72,390 | 88.59% | | Lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts (sheets) | 24,603 | 27,023 | 2,420 | 9.84% | [3] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot market quotation**: On April 7th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 74,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Downstream consumption situation**: From March 1st - 31st, the retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 988,000 vehicles, a 39% year - on - year increase and a 44% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.414 million vehicles, a 37% year - on - year increase. The wholesale of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.13 million vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 36% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale this year was 2.849 million vehicles, a 44% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Industry news**: - On March 26th, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2nd [9]. - On March 20th, Tianhua New Energy announced that its subsidiary obtained a mining license for a ceramic clay (lithium - containing) mine with an annual production scale of 9 million tons [10]. - On February 26th, South African mining giant Sibanye Stillwater terminated its lithium mine development project in Nevada, USA [10]. - China discovered a 2,800 - kilometer - long world - class spodumene - type lithium metallogenic belt, which is expected to increase China's lithium reserves from 6% to 16.5% of the global total [10]. - Keliyuan's Yichun lithium mine completed expansion and换证, with the mining and beneficiation scale increasing from 50,000 tons/year to 400,000 tons/year [11]. - Recently, relevant departments issued a notice to promote the use of new - energy vehicles in central and state - owned agencies [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly spreads of lithium carbonate futures main contracts, the prices of lithium concentrates, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes, etc. These charts visually display the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the industry [12][19][21]
聚酯日报:原油价格继续上行、PTA供需双增,聚酯原料延续偏强格局-2025-03-26
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 08:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to rise, and the supply and demand of PTA both increase. It is expected that polyester raw materials will continue to rebound. The downstream polyester starts to resume production in an orderly manner, but its sustainability still needs data verification [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PX & PTA - Yesterday, the PX main contract PX2505 closed at 6,888 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -95 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract PTA2505 closed at 4,876 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -26 yuan/ton [1] - On the cost side, Trump's statement about imposing a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas has raised market concerns. WTI crude oil main contract closed at $69.20 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $72.51 per barrel. On the supply side, many PX plants have maintenance plans from April to May, and the domestic PX plant operating rate is 82.8%, while the Asian operating rate is 77.4%. Many PTA plants are under maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is around 83.7%. The polyester operating rate is around 91.5%. On the demand side, the total turnover of the Light Textile City is 9.53 million meters, and the 15 - day average turnover is 8.1593 million meters [2] Polyester - Yesterday, the short - fiber main contract PF2505 closed at 6,556 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 144 yuan/ton. On March 20, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 69%, down 1% from last week. The average operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises was 68.33%, up 4.16% from last week. The operating rate of printing and dyeing samples in Shengze area was 68.68%, up 7.10% from last week. The inventory of textile finished products is about 24.33 days, up 1.02 days from last week. The new order volume is limited and mainly follows the changes in raw materials [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.14%, the main contract trading volume decreased by 35.00%, and the main contract position decreased by 0.23%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port and South Korea both decreased. The PX basis increased by 26.92% [6] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16%, the main contract trading volume decreased by 36.52%, and the main contract position decreased by 3.15%. PTA spot prices in the Chinese main port decreased. The PTA basis increased by 23.53% [6] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.70%, the main contract trading volume decreased by 8.33%, and the main contract position increased by 6.22%. The mainstream price of short - fiber spot in the East China market decreased by 0.15%. The PF basis increased by 33.33% [6] - Other industrial chain prices: Brent oil and US crude oil main contracts increased slightly, CFR Japanese naphtha increased by 0.20%, and the prices of some polyester products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha increased by 1.95%, PX decreased by 2.77%, and PTA increased by 1.56% [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume increased by 0.75%, long - fiber fabric trading volume decreased by 10.40%, and short - fiber fabric trading volume increased by 10.11% [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile looms remained unchanged [8] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber decreased by 13.44%, while those of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY increased [8] 3. Industrial Dynamics Macro Dynamics - Trump's tariff order has panicked investors, causing a significant decline in the S&P 500 index and a correction in the Nasdaq index. Investors are also concerned about the passage of a funding bill and an inflation report [9] - The New York Federal Reserve Bank's report shows that although Americans' expectations for future inflation have changed little, their concerns about the economic outlook increased in February [9] Industry Dynamics - Toray will stop producing PTA in Japan in 2026 and turn to external procurement due to profit deterioration and structural reform [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, basis, trading volumes, positions, operating rates, processing spreads, load rates, trading volumes, and inventory days of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, as well as the overall industrial chain situation [12][14][15]
碳酸锂反弹空间受明显压制,新仓单注册需关注后续基差修复
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 08:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of lithium carbonate is significantly suppressed, and the subsequent basis repair needs to be monitored for new warrant registrations. The main contradiction of oversupply still restricts the absolute price performance of lithium carbonate futures [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - On March 24, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and rebounded. The main contract LC2505 closed at 73,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable [1] - In the week of March 21, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 17,946 tons, a 2.47% decrease from the previous week. As of the week of March 14, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 126,399 tons, a 2.24% increase. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 13.54 GWh, a 3.28% increase [1] - From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market increased by 41% year - on - year and 63% month - on - month. The wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 43% year - on - year and 64% month - on - month [1] 2. Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring - **Futures Data**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate rose from 73,720 yuan/ton on March 24 to 73,800 yuan/ton on March 25, an increase of 0.11%. The basis decreased from 980 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton. The main monthly spread (05 - 07) increased from - 240 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The cancellation monthly spread (07 - 08) increased from - 1400 yuan/ton to - 1300 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 4.10%, and the trading volume increased by 9.31%. The number of lithium carbonate futures warrants decreased by 1.66% [3] - **Market Price Data**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.13% from March 24 to March 25. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.04%, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [5] - **Weekly Data**: From March 14 to March 21, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 3.05%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.47%. The output of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 3.28%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2.24%. The price of some battery cells changed slightly [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 74,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 427,000 vehicles, a 41% year - on - year increase and a 63% month - on - month increase. The wholesale was 422,000 vehicles, a 43% year - on - year increase and a 64% month - on - month increase [7] - **Industry News**: Multiple events occurred, including a company obtaining a mining license, a company terminating a lithium mine development project, new lithium ore discoveries in China, mine expansions, government support for new energy vehicles, and a company's acquisition of a lithium project stake [8][9][10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium carbonate futures, prices of various lithium - related products, production, inventory, and battery cell prices, which visually display the trends and relationships of relevant data [11][20][27]
原油燃料油日报:API超预期大幅去库,油价继续走高-2025-03-26
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 08:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices have stabilized and rebounded due to new sanctions on Iran by the US, OPEC's compensatory production cut plan, and escalating geopolitical tensions. However, in the medium to long term, market sentiment remains weak due to expectations of OPEC's production increase and economic slowdown caused by global trade wars [5]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market maintains a resilient pattern, but its upside potential is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Crude Oil - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 21 decreased by 4.599 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 1.074 million barrels. On March 25, the SC main contract in the domestic market closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. In the international market, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel [3]. - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than the expected 51.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached in the talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense. On the supply side, Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil in Venezuelan ports slowed down. On the demand side, China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, but refining profits are weak. The API data shows that both crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [4]. Fuel Oil - On March 25, FU was reported at 3194 yuan/ton, LU at 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 228.7 cents/gallon. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is resilient, but its upside is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC increased by 0.73% to 538.3 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.06% to 69.2 dollars/barrel, and Brent increased by 0.11% to 72.5 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices increased, with Brent increasing by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel. - Price spreads: The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI all increased, and the SC continuous - to - continuous 3 spread increased by 175.44% [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU increased by 0.57% to 3194 yuan/ton, LU increased by 1.29% to 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.14% to 228.7 cents/gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180 in East China increased by 1.42% to 5375 yuan/ton. - Price spreads: The China high - sulfur to low - sulfur price spread increased by 6.35% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Prices - On March 25, the SC main contract closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. The domestic Shengli crude oil spot price was 69.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.84% [10]. Outer - market Prices - On March 25, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel. The Brent crude oil spot price increased by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel, and the Dubai and Oman crude oil spot prices increased by 0.26% to 73.63 dollars/barrel [11]. Macroeconomics - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense [12]. Supply - OPEC+ requires seven member countries to further cut production. Kazakhstan's oil production in March reached a record high, exceeding the quota by 26.7%. OPEC+ may increase production in May and force some members to cut production to compensate for over - production. Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil slowed down. Iraq plans to increase oil production capacity to over 6 million barrels per day by 2029. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 to 486 [13][14][15]. Demand - China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, mainly due to the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical refinery and the increase in refined oil demand during the Spring Festival, but refining profits are weak [16]. Inventory - The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels for the week ending March 21, and the refined oil inventory also decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [17]. Market Information - The US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 92.9, lower than the previous value of 100.1. The number of new home sales in the US in February was 676,000. The US March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 4. The oil loading volume at Russian western ports in April increased by 5% compared to March. A Fed official said the current policy is still restrictive. The Yemeni Houthi rebels are in conflict with the US aircraft carrier [18]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and fuel oil prices and spreads, to visually present the market trends of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24][50]
乙二醇日报:进口到港量恢复抵消国内部分供应缩量,关注乙二醇去库幅度-2025-03-26
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 07:56
能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 3 月 26 日 星期三 进口到港量恢复抵消国内部分供应缩量,关注乙二醇去库幅度 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日,乙二醇华东现货价格 4510 元/吨,较前一日上涨 5 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4474 元/吨,较前一交易上涨 0.04%。基差为 16 元/吨。 成本端,油价企稳反弹,WTI原油主力收69.20元/桶,布油收 72.51美元/桶。供给端,内蒙古一套30万吨装置上周末跳停,预 计本周末重启。新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车,初步预 计7月份重启。沙特一套55万吨装置近期重启,此前于2月份停车 检修。沙特一套70万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修,预计 检修两个月左右。上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启,镇海炼化 原计划3月底重启,现推迟至年底,内蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬 停车1个月,陕西榆林化学有两条线计划4月份检修。乐天美国70 万吨产能计划4月份检修,马来西亚石 ...