Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: This week, the supply of pure benzene showed a marginal loosening trend, with the restart capacity higher than the shutdown capacity, and the overall supply increased by about 14,000 tons. The demand was weak, and the short - stop of phenol devices significantly affected the consumption of raw materials. The port inventory was stable and weak due to typhoon disturbances, and the port was in a destocking state in the short term. The supply - demand balance sheet indicates a slight destocking of pure benzene in August - September, with fundamental improvement. However, the weak terminal orders and high hidden inventory limit the upward momentum. After the important macro - level meeting, the market sentiment declined, and the market returned to fundamental - led rhythm [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene was stable, and there was no new large - scale device maintenance last week. The Jingbo new device produced qualified products, bringing marginal supply increments. The demand was in the seasonal off - peak, and the 3S industries'开工 rates fluctuated slightly, providing rigid support for styrene raw materials. After the important meeting this week, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the styrene futures price fluctuated downward. The basis of the main contract turned from negative to positive, and the inter - month structure changed from B to C, indicating market expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season. If the Jingbo new device operates smoothly in August, the supply pressure will increase. The balance sheet shows that styrene will face destocking pressure in August - September, and the fundamental pattern will remain loosely supplied [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On August 6, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.04% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 (+42 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.42% at 6,246 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.2 dollars/barrel (-1.1 dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 67.6 dollars/barrel (-1.1 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,030 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: The sample factory inventory of styrene was 217,000 tons (+12,000 tons), a 5.9% month - on - month inventory increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,000 tons), an 8.8% month - on - month inventory increase. The overall styrene inventory increased. The pure benzene port inventory was 170,000 tons (-1,000 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: The overhauled styrene devices resumed operation, and the overall supply was stable. The weekly output of styrene remained at 361,000 tons (+0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.9% (+0.1%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S industries changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 54.3% (-1.0%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.9% (-0.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 53.3% (+1.7%), with the overall开工 rate fluctuating slightly [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: From August 4 to August 5, the prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot contracts showed different trends, with changes ranging from -0.50% to 1.13%. The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha also decreased slightly [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: From July 25 to August 1, the output of styrene in China remained unchanged at 361,000 tons, while the output of pure benzene increased from 425,000 tons to 436,000 tons, a 2.37% increase. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased from 151,000 tons to 164,000 tons (8.83%), and the domestic styrene factory inventory increased from 205,000 tons to 217,000 tons (5.87%). The national pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly from 171,000 tons to 170,000 tons (-0.58%) [7]. - **Capacity Utilization Rates**: From July 25 to August 1, the capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed. For example, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased from 78.8% to 78.9%, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased from 55.2% to 54.3%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased from 51.6% to 53.3% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - OPEC+ will significantly increase production again in September to complete the withdrawal from the latest round of production cuts and compete for market share, but future choices remain uncertain [9]. - The non - farm payrolls in the United States in May were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and in June from 147,000 to 14,000, a total reduction of 258,000 in two months [9]. - The Federal Reserve remained on hold, and Powell avoided giving guidance on a September interest rate cut [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, costs, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products over different time periods [10][20][21].

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current market shows a weak supply - demand balance. The supply - side capacity utilization is rising, while the demand - side experiences a seasonal decline in new energy vehicle sales but an enhanced long - term demand expectation from emerging applications. The rapid convergence of the basis indicates a narrowing of the spot - futures arbitrage space, and the continuous increase in open interest implies intensified divergence. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the core suppressing factors being the mainly rigid demand in the spot market and the expected resumption of mines in Jiangxi. However, the downside of the market may be supported by technical buying and long - term demand prospects [3] Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On August 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 1,780 yuan/ton to 69,620 yuan/ton. The basis weakened significantly, narrowing from 3,810 yuan/ton to 2,030 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased by 11.08% to 257,770 lots, reaching a recent high, with intense long - short competition. The trading volume decreased slightly by 2.71% to 425,359 lots, and market activity cooled slightly [1][5] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The weekly capacity utilization of lithium carbonate increased by 1.72 percentage points to 63.92%, driven by the increased production of the salt lake lithium extraction process. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable. In the long - term, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment in late July, which may force traditional lithium salt enterprises to upgrade their technologies. Downstream demand was divided. In July, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 17% month - on - month to 789,000 units. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.48%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, with continuous destocking for two weeks but at a slower pace [2][5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate on August 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous day or previous period are presented in a table, along with the capacity utilization and inventory changes of lithium carbonate and the prices of some battery cells [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On August 6, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,731 yuan/ton, down 257 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan/ton, both down 250 yuan/ton. In August, the procurement demand in the market showed a warming trend, but actual transactions were mainly rigid demand due to the strong basis in the spot market. Downstream enterprises remained cautious and did not show obvious inventory restocking behavior. Information on mines in Jiangxi has not been officially confirmed [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on July 30, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 789,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase but a 17% month - on - month decrease. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.258 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year - on - year increase but a 20% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.264 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [7] - **Industry News**: In 2025, the humanoid robot market exploded, with a large number of capital inflows. On July 22, Hive Energy's chairman revealed that the company was promoting the R & D and mass production of solid - state batteries, planning to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid - state battery on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in Q4 2025, which would be supplied to BMW MINI's next - generation models in 2027. Recently, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state lithium battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment [8][9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, and battery cell prices, along with their data sources [10][14][16][18][20][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, facing pressure from cost logic and weak supply - demand reality. The market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside potential, and attention should be paid to coal chemical plant maintenance plans and the recovery rhythm of terminal textile orders [2][23] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract rose slightly by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper backwardation in the far - month contracts [1] - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract decreased by 6034 lots to 218,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 13.96% to 90,000 lots, showing a decline in market participation and a shift to a wait - and - see attitude [1] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 63.09%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants unchanged. However, the profits of naphtha - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were in losses [1] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season without significant improvement [1] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons. The port shipment volume remained high, but the recent arrival volume increased for two consecutive weeks to 16.87 tons [1] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market rose by 15 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 73 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and coal - based production were in losses, with the coal - based profit remaining at - 214 yuan/ton [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 0.97 tons to 16.87 tons [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **市场商谈情况**: On August 6, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained firm in the afternoon, with no reported transactions [5] - **地区市场报价**: The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton, the quotation in the South China market was raised, and the East China price was around 4492 yuan/ton [5] - **价格影响因素**: The increase in international crude oil and coal prices strengthened cost support. With domestic and foreign plant production cuts, the basis was firm, and the market price rose [5] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal downside risk of crude oil prices is increasing. Supply increments from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there are signs of medium - term supply loosening pressure. Although the high refinery utilization rate in the US and the destocking of refined oil products provide short - term support, weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. - Overall, the supply side may face increasing pressure, while the demand side shows strong US refinery demand but weak Asian fuel oil demand. The short - term oil price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with a risk of decline, though US inventory reduction and high refinery demand may offer some support [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 6, the price of the SC main contract dropped slightly to 505.9 yuan/barrel (previous value: 508.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.57%), while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 65.17 dollars/barrel and 67.68 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC against Brent and WTI weakened, and the spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 months also slightly shrank, indicating near - end price pressure [2]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: Geopolitical disturbances continue. Russia may increase its oil exports to the West to 2 million barrels per day in August, and Iraq plans to resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline. The US EIA crude oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate reached a high of 96.9%, suggesting strong short - term North American production activities [3]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: US refinery demand is strong, with gasoline and refined oil inventories decreasing, supporting cracking margins. However, Asian fuel oil demand is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market remains weak. There is a differentiation in regional demand, as shown by the slight decline in the Japanese refinery utilization rate and changes in gasoline and kerosene inventories [4]. - **Inventory - Side Analysis**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels unexpectedly, and refined oil destocking accelerated, verifying demand resilience. Japanese commercial crude oil inventories also decreased, but the digestion capacity of Russia's incremental exports for global on - land inventories needs attention [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The expected increase in exports from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there is potential medium - term supply loosening pressure. The high refinery utilization rate in the US and refined oil destocking provide short - term support, but weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures all declined on August 6 compared to the previous day. The spreads between different crude oil varieties changed, and the US dollar index decreased while the S&P 500 and DAX index increased. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the refinery utilization rate increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Most fuel oil prices remained stable or changed slightly on August 6. The spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and China decreased slightly. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, while some US fuel oil inventories decreased [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: US EIA crude oil imports decreased, and the planned production of crude oil increased. Russia plans to increase oil exports to the West, and Iraq may resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline [10][11]. - **Demand**: US EIA crude oil and distillate fuel oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate was higher than expected. However, gasoline and refined oil production decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: US EIA strategic petroleum reserve, refined oil, gasoline, and crude oil inventories all changed. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and Japanese commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased while kerosene inventory increased [13][15]. - **Market Information**: The prices of blending raw materials for oil mixing decreased, and the prices of domestic marine fuel oil decreased moderately. In the trading market, the trading volume is low, and the price center has not shifted significantly [16]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts related to crude oil and fuel oil, including prices, production, inventories, and refinery utilization rates, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The downward trend of PX and PTA may be difficult to reverse due to weakening demand and high inventory. The polyester industry chain is expected to continue its weak operation, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of demand and the suppression of absolute high inventory. PTA processing fees may further shrink, and inventory reduction depends on large - scale production cuts or unexpectedly strong demand [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 6, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6,794.0 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 98.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,724.0 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost - end: On August 6, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.68 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 65.17 US dollars/barrel. OPEC + plans to increase production from August to September, and the pressure of oil price surplus is gradually materializing. The low - level oscillation of crude oil prices provides limited cost support for PX, but attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil supply disturbances caused by the North American hurricane season [2]. - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA main contracts maintains a contango structure, indicating a relatively loose supply pattern in the current spot market. The recent compression of PTA processing fees has led to production cuts in some plants, offsetting the output of newly - commissioned plants, and the supply pressure of TA has slightly decreased [2]. - Demand - end: The trading volume of Light Textile City has been continuously lower than the seasonal average, confirming the weak peak - season characteristics of terminal textile demand. The inventory pressure in the polyester segment is transmitted upstream in the industrial chain. Although large - scale polyester enterprises maintain rigid operation in the short term, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has not been fully released [2]. - Inventory - end: The current PTA factory inventory is at a medium level. The deterioration of processing fees has led to production cuts and load reduction in plants. The operating rate of downstream polyester segments remains at a low level characteristic of the off - season. Demand has not reached the end of the off - season, and there is no more positive support for the supply - demand situation at the PX end, with insufficient upward driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 6, 2025, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,414.0 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,480.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 66.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The futures prices of PX and PTA showed a trend of rising first and then falling from late July to early August 2025. PX dropped from a high of 6,984 yuan/ton to 6,794 yuan/ton, and PTA dropped from 4,856 yuan/ton to 4,724 yuan/ton, reflecting the weakening of cost support and a loose supply pattern [4]. - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City decreased from a high of 4940,000 meters to 4840,000 meters, indicating a marginal weakening of terminal replenishment momentum. The inventories of various polyester products are significantly higher than the five - year average, and the inventory pressure is fully prominent [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.89%, the trading volume increased by 21.42%, and the open interest decreased by 2.15%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 157.89% [5]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.90%, the trading volume increased by 33.21%, and the open interest decreased by 5.94%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 190.91%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 9.52%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17.07%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 25.00%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.39% [5]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 1.46%, the trading volume increased by 78.51%, and the open interest increased by 172.71%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The PF basis decreased by 59.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.23%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.47%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [5]. - Other: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spread of PTA decreased by 2.58%, while the processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on August 6 was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [6][8]. - Industrial chain load rate: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [6]. - Inventory days: From July 24 to July 31, 2025, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 0.51%, polyester POY by 16.77%, polyester FDY by 13.79%, and polyester DTY by 5.34% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On August 6, Trump said he might soon announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman, with four candidates, and Bessent hoped to stay in the Treasury. - On August 5, Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian crude oil, and India responded that the accusation was unfounded. - On August 5, Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting from September; if the unemployment rate rises further, it may cut interest rates by 50 basis points. - On August 5, Citigroup raised its gold price forecast for the next 0 - 3 months to 3,500 US dollars/ounce (previously 3,300 US dollars/ounce). - On August 5, Federal Reserve's Daly said the time for interest - rate cuts was approaching, and the number of interest - rate cuts within the year was more likely to be more than two. - On August 5, Trump said he would announce a candidate to fill the vacant Federal Reserve governor position in the next few days [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 6, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, etc., with data sources from Wind and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [9][11][13][15]. 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA being negative may indicate relatively sufficient spot supply. The price increases of PTA and PX may be supported by crude oil costs or due to supply shortages. Further analysis of factors such as plant maintenance and changes in operating rates is needed [33]. - Demand - end: The decline in the trading volume of Light Textile City may indicate weakening downstream demand, which in turn may lead to a decrease in PTA demand and put pressure on prices. The impact of polyester operating rates on PTA demand needs to be considered in combination with other factors [34]. - Inventory - end: Without specific inventory data, the change in inventory can be inferred from the supply and demand situation. If supply decreases while demand remains stable, inventory may decline; if supply increases while demand decreases, inventory may rise [34]. - Overall view: Future PX prices may fluctuate strongly, affected by crude oil and its own supply - demand situation. PTA prices may be limited in upward space or under pressure due to weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [36].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Prices**: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - **Supply**: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - **Demand**: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - **Prices**: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply - demand - inventory situation**: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - **PTA**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - **Short - fiber**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - **Demand Side**: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - **Inventory Side**: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - **Demand**: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - **Inventory**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - **Market Information**: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].

纯苯&苯乙烯日报 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 8 月 4 日 星期一 OPEC 增产大超预期，拖累苯乙烯价格下行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：8 月 1 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 7296/吨，基差 54（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.54%，报 6260 元/吨。 成本：8 月 1 日布油主力合约收盘 69.3 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主 力合约收盘 72.5 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6075 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.7 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 5.9%，江 苏港口库存 16.4 万吨（+1.3 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 纯苯港口库存 17.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.9%（+0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 54.3%（-1.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.9%（-0.9%） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].