Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have started to finish crushing, and a restorative increase in sugar production is a foregone conclusion. Holiday consumption during May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, sugar production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to weaken sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and sugar beets, as well as the progress of sugar production in Brazil [1]. - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports also decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang have been generally favorable for cotton sowing [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $18.16 to $17.83, a decline of 1.82%; the price of US cotton decreased from $68.7 to $67.56, a decline of 1.66% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6,210 to 6,220, a rise of 0.16%; the price of sugar in Kunming increased from 6,000 to 6,070, a rise of 1.17%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.07%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,000 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From April 27 - 28, 2025, SR01 - 05 spread decreased from -343 to -362, a change of 5.54%; SR05 - 09 spread increased from 201 to 212, a change of 5.47%; SR09 - 01 spread increased from 142 to 150, a change of 5.63%; CF01 - 05 spread decreased from 500 to 480, a decline of 4.00%; CF05 - 09 spread decreased from -265 to -275, a change of 3.77%; CF09 - 01 spread increased from -235 to -205, a decline of 12.77% [3]. - **Basis**: From April 27 - 28, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 increased from 168 to 243, a rise of 44.64%; the basis of sugar 05 increased from -175 to -119, a decline of 32.00%; the basis of sugar 09 increased from 26 to 93, a rise of 257.69%; the basis of cotton 01 increased from 1,009 to 1,089, a rise of 7.93%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1,509 to 1,569, a rise of 3.98%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1,244 to 1,294, a rise of 4.02% [3]. - **Import Prices**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 80.55 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1,295 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C6000 is 0.1097, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.88; the implied volatility of SR509P6000 is 0.1084 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13000 is 0.1271, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77; the implied volatility of CF509P13000 is 0.1281 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On April 27 - 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28,756; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10,555 to 10,479, a decline of 0.72% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views - **Nickel**: Despite a short - term rebound due to cost - related factors and market sentiment, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Philippines after the rainy season and the demand difference between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily receded. In the short - term, the supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to long - term, the market remains in an oversupply state, with a bearish outlook [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: In 2024, GreenMei achieved an operating income of 33.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.19%. The annual output of nickel metal was 51,677 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91%. The company has built a nickel resource production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [1]. - **Zinc**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts that in 2025, the global refined zinc supply will exceed demand by 93,000 tons. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will grow by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons [4]. Mine End - **Nickel**: Indonesia raised mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel mines at the port of destination in the Philippines rebounded. Although the seasonal loosening of the nickel mine supply has not yet appeared, under normal circumstances, the possibility of the mine end turning loose is still high [1]. - **Zinc**: The profit of mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. Meanwhile, imports at the mine end have significantly recovered [4]. Smelting - **Nickel**: China's imports of pure nickel are relatively small, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at a historically high level. The production cost of electrowinning nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan per ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The TC price at the smelting end has rebounded to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan per ton. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but with by - product income, the profit has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts is extremely low [5]. Demand - **Nickel**: Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list, so its export demand may increase, which may form a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively high price of nickel - iron has led to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while social inventory has started to accumulate. Galvanizing manufacturers' expectations for terminal demand are pessimistic, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing regions except Yunnan have finished crushing, and a recovery in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of sugarcane and beets in China, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally favorable for cotton sowing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On April 26 - 27, 2025, the price of US sugar was $18.16 with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton was $68.7 with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From April 25 - 27, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6,210 yuan with a 0.00% change, the price in Kunming dropped from 6,010 yuan to 6,000 yuan with a -0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280 with a -0.03% change, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 14,000 yuan with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spread Overview**: Most sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from April 26 - 27, 2025, except for some changes in basis spreads. For example, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 5.62%, and the basis of cotton 01 increased by 1.00% [3] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained at 80.55 from April 25 - 27, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,295 from April 25 - 27, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C6000 is 0.1105, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.88; the implied volatility of CF509C13000 is 0.12, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.97 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar and cotton warehouse receipts remained unchanged from April 25 - 27, 2025, with 28,756 for sugar and 10,555 for cotton [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 中国 4 月 LPR 出炉，1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，连续 6 个 月维持不变。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货趋弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1040 元/吨(-0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。九月合约报 956 元/吨(-6.5)。基差 104 元/吨(+6.5)，5-9 月差-63.5 元/吨（+15）。 供给窄幅震荡，需求继续上行。110 家洗煤厂开工率报 61.9%(-0.8)，小幅回落。230 家独立焦企生产率报 73 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西增产预期压制糖价，短期震荡为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Zinc: Bearish outlook [1] - Nickel: Short - term rebound, then bearish; recommend selling after rebound [4][6] - Stainless steel: Hold and observe [4] 2. Core Views Zinc - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, supply is loosening in the short - term, and there is an overall surplus in the medium - and long - term [2] Nickel - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. The nickel price rebounds in the short - term but the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged [6] Stainless steel - As nickel is on the US tariff list while stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Macro & Industry News - 11 US states, following California, sued the Trump administration for abusing tariff policies, claiming the president has no right to impose arbitrary tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] Mine End - Mining enterprise profits were affected by tariff policies. Zinc ingot price drops led to a significant contraction in profits, from over 6000 yuan/ton to about 4000 yuan/ton, but profits are still at a relatively medium - high level. TC prices did not fall, indicating no production cuts, and imports have significantly recovered [1] Smelting - TC prices at the smelting end have rebounded to 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton and remained stable. Integrated enterprise profits have shrunk but are still decent. Pure smelting enterprise static profits turned negative again, but with by - product revenues, overall profits are positive. The possibility of production cuts is low, and supply is loosening [2] Demand - The peak demand season is ending. Galvanized capacity utilization and production are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is weak. Steel mill inventories are low, social inventories are rising, and manufacturers' profit margins are decent, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on terminal demand and a decline in zinc ingot demand [2] Nickel Macro & Industry News - In March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 101.3 tons, a 11.5% month - on - month and 60.0% year - on - year increase. Imports from Indonesia were 98.9 tons, up 10.5% month - on - month and 60.4% year - on - year. From January to March, total imports were 285.1 tons, a 26.2% year - on - year increase, with 278.3 tons from Indonesia, a 27.6% increase [4] - In March 2025, China's nickel ore imports were 153.52 tons, a 33.95% month - on - month increase and a 0.45% year - on - year decrease. Red clay nickel ore imports were 151.4 tons, and sulfide nickel ore imports were 2.12 tons. Imports from the Philippines were 120.57 tons, accounting for 78.53% of the total. From January to March, total imports were 359.33 tons, a 5.22% year - on - year decrease [5] Mine End - Indonesia plans to raise mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support prices. In the Philippines, the rainy season in the Surigao mining area continues, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly, but the tight supply situation will improve after April. There is no continuous upward momentum for prices [5] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at the highest level in the same period. The production cost of electrowon nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be determined by the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate, which provide demand support at about 134,000 yuan/ton and 137,000 yuan/ton respectively, both lower than before [6] Demand - As nickel is on the US tariff list and stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. High nickel - iron prices lead to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may reduce production and nickel demand [6]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 期货研究报告 广西干燥天气引发担忧，郑糖短期支撑较强 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 移仓加速，交割矛盾逐步化解 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 23 日 上游去库，下游补库。523 家矿山精煤库存 333.34 万吨(-2.17)，原煤库存 516.78 （+12.28），洗煤厂精煤库存 181.33 万吨(-11.63)。247 家钢厂库存 784.23 万吨 （+4.6)，230 家焦企库存 829.86(+15.14)。港口库存 337.38 万吨(-11.54)。 焦炭： 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： ...

期货研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 弱反弹状态持续，短期等待二次探底 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 04 月 23 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 宏观金融研究 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： 短期来看，4 月 7 日大阴线后各指数技术面基本走空，参考 2019 年 4-5 月 的行情走势，市场在急跌之后通常需要经历一段时间的震荡整理，预计上方 缺口（如：沪深 300 指数 3600-3900）将成为未来 1-2 个月的震荡中枢。目 前，市场仍处于震荡行情的前半段，本周需警惕二次探底风险，建议投资者 周初观望，后续遇急跌是重新布局多单的机会（参考沪深 300 指数 3600 左 右）。中期继续看涨，等待如 2020 年 ...

期货研究报告 下游需求低迷，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 ...