| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

焦煤——震荡 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com -------------------- 商品研究 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 美对等关税落地，关注冲击后盘面走势 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对外贸伙伴征收"对等关税"，对中国实施 34%的对等关 税。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货震荡。唐山主焦煤报 1335 元/吨(-0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)，现货竞拍率回升，情绪有所企稳。活跃合约报 1001.5 元/吨(-6.5)。基差 363.5 元 /吨(+6.5)，5-9 月差 ...

商品研究 软商品日报 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受供应忧虑提振，原糖短期震荡整理 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-01 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 18.85 | 19.36 | 2.71% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 66.87 | 68.21 | 2.00% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-01 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6170.0 | 6200. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have both positive and negative news, and it remains in a bottom - oscillating state. The price of industrial silicon has hit a new low, and it is currently in a stage of long - short game. The price of polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is in a state of bullish oscillation [1][2][3][4] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. In February, industrial silicon production decreased to 289,500 tons, a reduction of 10,000 tons from January. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, with Sichuan's production at only 3,000 tons. Some production capacities in the northwest region have resumed production recently, and the supply pressure of industrial silicon has become prominent again. The production cost in the southwest region has reached the annual high due to the high electricity cost during the dry season, but the cost support for silicon prices is limited [2] - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory decreased by 0.5 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 594,000 tons [2] Downstream Demand Side - In the polysilicon sector, production continued to decline in February, reaching about 90,000 tons. With the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon production has been continuously decreasing. However, with better downstream production scheduling recently, the probability of large - scale production cuts is small, and the demand for industrial silicon has stabilized marginally [2] - In the organic silicon DMC sector, some manufacturers plan to start the production - cut mode, and the production is expected to continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the alloy silicon sector, the price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the market, so the demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Transaction Logic - Industrial silicon production is still at a high level. The production of downstream polysilicon has stabilized, and the consumption of industrial silicon has also stabilized. The consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon has weakened, and the consumption by silicon - aluminum alloy has remained stable. High inventory suppresses the price of industrial silicon. Although the photovoltaic industry has an improvement expectation, it is currently in a long - short game stage [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable. The production of polysilicon in February decreased to 90,000 tons, which strongly supports the price. Under the premise of industry self - discipline, each polysilicon factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - The production of downstream silicon wafers shows signs of stabilization and recovery, and the price has increased slightly. The inventory of silicon wafers is in the destocking cycle, and the inventory is being removed quickly, which supports the price. The production scheduling of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which also supports the polysilicon market [3] Transaction Logic - The production of polysilicon has stabilized at the bottom, the downstream demand has an improvement expectation, and the inventory is still in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon to rise, and it shows a bullish oscillation [4]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 现货企稳，焦炭增仓上行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 2 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.3 月 30 日，建行、中行、交行邮储银行发布公告，拟通过特定对象发行 A 股股票募集资金，补 充核心一级资本，其中财政部出资共 5000 亿。 2.3 月制造业 PMI 报 50.5%，较 2 月的 50.2%环比回升，高于市场一致预期但季节性上弱于往年 同期水平 ，分项表现出生产强价格弱，行业表现出新行业强传统行业弱的格局。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货反弹。唐山主焦煤报 1 ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 短期尚未企稳，单边继续观望，多 IF 空 IM 继续持有 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 报告内容摘要: 1) 国家统计局公布数据显示，3 月份，我国制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和 综合 PMI 分别为 50.5%、50.8%和 51.4%，比上月上升 0.3、0.4 和 0.3 个百分点，均连续两个月上升。 2) 美国总统特朗普将于周三公布对等关税政策。据悉，特朗普正在考虑对 所有进口产品征收 20%的特别关税。 1) 盘面追踪：上个交易日，A股震荡下跌。四大指数中，上证50收跌0.53%， 沪深 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, but weather changes still need attention. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, widening the supply - demand gap [2] - For cotton, domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the textile industry's market outlook is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Sugar - **Production and Sales**: As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, up 1.77 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sales were 4.75 million tons, up 0.97 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than last year [2] - **Weather Impact**: In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi and Yunnan alleviated the drought, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth, but subsequent weather changes need to be monitored [2] - **International Market**: Brazil's sugar production decreased and India's did not meet expectations, leading to a wider international supply - demand gap [2] - **Price and Spread**: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.10%, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and the price in Kunming remained unchanged. Some sugar spreads and basis showed significant changes, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 11.57% and the sugar 01 basis increasing by 19.63% [4] - **Import and Profit**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [4] - **Options and Warehouse Receipts**: The implied volatility of some sugar options was provided, and the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025 [4] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a five - year high, with sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate rising and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating [2] - **International Market**: The cotton export volume of the US and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [2] - **Sowing Outlook**: The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs attention [2] - **Price and Spread**: From March 30 to March 31, 2025, the price of US cotton decreased by 0.03%, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged. Some cotton spreads and basis showed changes, such as CF01 - 05 decreasing by 7.14% and the cotton 01 basis increasing by 7.67% [4] - **Import and Warehouse Receipts**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from March 28 to March 31, 2025, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.27% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility of some cotton options was provided [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Bearish [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "trade-in" policy promotes automobile consumption, but the demand for nickel and zinc remains insufficient [1] - The seasonal tightness of nickel ore will improve after April, and the overall supply of pure nickel remains high. The profit of stainless steel has been repaired, but the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. It is recommended to roll short [2] - The supply side of zinc has fully loosened. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - As of March 28, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile "trade - in" has exceeded 1.769 million. The cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars this year have exceeded 2.05 million, a year - on - year increase of about 34% [1] 2. Nickel & Stainless Steel - The price of nickel ore has a small seasonal increase due to the rainy season in the Philippines, but there is no continuous upward momentum. The overall supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [2] - The production cost of electrowinning nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before [2] - The profit of stainless steel has been significantly repaired, but the repair has slowed down since the second half of March, and the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The operation suggestion is to roll short [2] 3. Zinc - In terms of TC changes, the supply of the ore end has fully loosened. After March, the rebound of TC prices has stagnated. The smelting profit has been rapidly repaired, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting enterprises' production is expected to be high [2] - Galvanized sheet manufacturers have resumed production, and the weekly output has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. The operation suggestion is to short [2] 4. Charts and Data (Not Detailed in Text, Only Mentioned) - There are charts about macro indicators (exchange rate, Dow Jones Index), spot premiums and discounts (for nickel, zinc, lead, stainless steel), spread analysis, inventory analysis, profit, and import profit and loss [4][6][24][33][45][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and slightly bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are at a historical low, with weak fundamentals but potential improvement in the photovoltaic industry, currently in a multi - empty game phase; polysilicon prices are likely to rise, with production at the bottom stabilizing and downstream demand showing signs of improvement [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Xinjiang sample silicon factories have a weekly output of 38,585 tons and a weekly operating rate of 80%, with a slight increase compared to last week due to the release of resumed production capacity. An Xinjiang leading enterprise plans to conduct large - scale production cuts on March 31 [1] - In February, industrial silicon production dropped to 289,500 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from January. Sichuan and Yunnan's production has reached historical lows. Although some production capacity in the northwest has resumed, the cost support for silicon prices is limited as the price has fallen below the cost line [2] Downstream Demand Side - Polysilicon production decreased in February, and the demand for industrial silicon is on a downward trend but may stabilize marginally; some organic silicon DMC manufacturers may cut production, reducing the demand for industrial silicon; the demand for industrial silicon from alloy silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory decreased by 5,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is 594,000 tons [2] Trading Logic - Industrial silicon production remains high, downstream polysilicon production stabilizes, organic silicon consumption of industrial silicon weakens, and silicon - aluminum alloy consumption of industrial silicon remains stable. High inventory suppresses industrial silicon prices. The price is in a multi - empty game phase [4] Operation Suggestion - Wait and see [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - Polysilicon spot prices are stable. In February, production decreased to 90,000 tons. Under industry self - discipline, production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization and recovery, prices have increased slightly, and inventory is in a destocking cycle. The production schedule of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which supports polysilicon prices [3] Inventory - Although polysilicon inventory has slightly increased due to the Spring Festival, it is still in the destocking cycle [3] Trading Logic - Polysilicon production stabilizes at the bottom, downstream demand is expected to improve, and inventory is in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for an increase, showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4] Operation Suggestion - Buy on dips [4]

报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-03-28 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 棉市观望情绪较浓，郑棉短期震荡观望 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...