单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 股指期货数据日报 2025年9月8日 | 单位：点、手、亿元 | | | | | | | | | | 单位：手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | 中证1000 | 7311.03 | 0.90% | 30,781 | 9 | % | 4,955 | 8 % | | | | | IM2509 | 7236.00 | 0.41% | 153,548 | -17% | | 2,217 | -15% | 159,428 | -11,830 | 277 | | IM2510 | 7178.80 | 0.38% | 12,587 | -22% | | 180 | -21% | 25,168 | 623 | 4 3 | | IM2512 | 7042.40 | 0.38% | 64,157 | -18% | | 901 | ...

锌：多空因素交织 沪锌价格反复运行 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 单边：国内供应过剩逻辑不改。但考虑到短期受外盘支撑及国内消费旺季提振预期影响，锌价或有反复； ➢ 套利：暂时观望。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，近期锌价走低，国内矿山利润下滑，矿企对锌精矿加工费上调意愿较低。而进口锌精矿亏损扩大，国内冶炼厂积极采购国产锌精矿，整体对矿端需求旺 盛，国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs showed a rebound and upward trend. The rise in pig prices was mainly due to the tightening of supply at the beginning of the month and the early entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market in May was not obvious, especially the demand was still relatively weak. If secondary fattening faded and large - scale farms started to sell pigs, prices might still fall. - In the futures market, valuation repair and spot drive were the main contradictions in this week's futures trading. With the improvement of market sentiment and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price broke through the previous resistance level. The report believes that there is still room for the rise of live pig prices, but from a trading perspective, the impact of spot prices is still significant, and once secondary fattening fades, the futures price may be adjusted [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Spot market: The price of live pigs rebounded this week. The reasons were the slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress at the beginning of the month, the resistance of farmers to low prices, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in May was not obvious, and if secondary fattening faded, prices might fall. - Futures market: The main contradiction in futures trading was valuation repair and spot drive. With the improvement of market sentiment, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price rose. There was still room for the rise of live pig prices, but the impact of spot prices was significant, and the rhythm needed to be tracked [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a bullish view, but closely track the spot market and secondary fattening situation due to the recent large increase. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy LH2409 - C - 17700, sell LH2407 - C - 19500, and sell LH2407 - P - 17400 [5]. 3.2 Data Chart & Logical Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country rose steadily, showing a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south. By May 11, the average price of live pigs in different regions had different degrees of increase or decrease. The slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress, farmers' reluctance to sell, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening all contributed to the price rise [10]. 3.2.2 Changes in Slaughter and Consumption - Slaughter: At the beginning of the month, the sales progress of large - scale enterprises and the willingness of ordinary farmers to sell pigs slowed down, and the supply tightened. The weight of slaughtered pigs decreased, the fat - to - standard price spread widened, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the north increased, resulting in a low completion rate of slaughter enterprises' plans. - Consumption: The frozen product storage rate continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory decreased slightly. Although the slaughter volume also decreased slightly, the apparent demand was still average, and the fresh sales rate of live pigs remained stable. The sales of the白条 market were general, and the terminal demand was weak [11]. 3.2.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the spot price of live pigs rebounded rapidly, and the breeding profit continued to strengthen. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 43.97 yuan/head, an increase of 11.96 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was 96.25 yuan/head, an increase of 22.65 yuan; the profit of selling piglets was 188.62 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.89 yuan/head. The feed price remained stable, and the breeding cost increased, but the increase in pig prices was relatively larger, so the breeding profit showed an improving trend [16]. 3.2.4 Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 565 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan/head compared with last week; the price of 15 - kg piglets was 694 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan/head. The price of piglets showed a weak decline due to the decrease in seasonal replenishment and farmers' resistance, but there was still price support due to the relatively low supply. - Sows: The national price of二元 sows was 1577 yuan/head, remaining stable compared with last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs continued to rise, and farmers' enthusiasm for breeding and replenishment increased. The overall production performance of sows was good [20]. 3.2.5 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - In April, the inventory of reproductive sows increased month - on - month according to different data sources. The increase in the number of reproductive sows was promoted by good breeding profits, with the increase rate of small - scale farmers being greater than that of large - scale enterprises. The number of culled sows decreased, and the overall production performance of sows continued to improve [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of apples is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to low high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples and potential impact of rainfall on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji [16]. - The new - season Fuji apples may have a high price at the initial listing stage as the new - season apple output is expected to change little from this season, and the early - maturing apples have a low high - quality fruit rate [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Analysis - The ground trading of early - maturing Gala apples has basically ended this week, with a small amount of cold - storage goods still being shipped out. Early - maturing Fuji apples are waiting to color. Due to continuous rainfall in Shaanxi, the quantity of red apples is difficult to increase, and the trading is sporadic. The impact of early - maturing fruits on Shandong's inventory goods has weakened, and the sales have improved slightly. The prices in Shandong are mainly stable, with the prices of good goods in some townships slightly increasing. The Cream Red General apples in Shandong are on the market. The sales in the distribution markets are a bit slow, and the market prefers high - redness high - quality goods [6]. - The main producing areas' prices: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the trading of Gala is basically over, and the Cream Red General is the main trading variety. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - maturing Fuji above 70 is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Baishui, the mainstream reference price of general goods starting from 70 is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.1 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 4, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 2.32%, down 0.36 percentage points this period, and 1.666 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 96.36%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 4.28%, down 0.51 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 1.85%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11]. - As of September 3, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main producing areas is 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from last week, and the inventory shipment speed has accelerated slightly [11]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has increased slightly compared with last week. The market still mainly deals with Fuji apples, and the early - maturing varieties account for a small proportion. The early - maturing apples are selling well, but the profit of merchants is average, and the terminal sales speed is not fast [14]. - On September 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.89 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median level in recent years [14]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and conduct rolling operations of buying low and selling high due to the possible low high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The prices of general peanuts in Henan and Northeast China are stable, as well as the purchase prices of oil mills. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased, the spot price of peanut meal is strong, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills has declined, but it is still at a high level. This week, the price of November peanuts has fluctuated at the bottom, and the spread between November and January contracts is stable. Some spring peanuts have been listed, and the demand is weak. The output of new - season peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. The spot price of peanuts has continued to fall, while the futures price has fluctuated at the bottom [5]. - The price of November peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom. The spread between October and January contracts should be shorted when it is high. An option strategy of selling pk511 - P - 7600 can be tried [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The prices of general peanuts, oil - mill purchase prices, and imported peanut prices are stable. The import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased, the peanut meal is strong, and the peanut oil price is stable. The downstream consumption is weak, and the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills has declined but remains high. New - season peanuts may have increased or flat output, and the planting cost has decreased, leading to a fall in spot prices and bottom - level fluctuations in futures prices [5]. - **Strategies**: November peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom. The 10 - 1 spread should be shorted when it is high. An option strategy of selling pk511 - P - 7600 can be attempted [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: In the domestic market, the price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is stable. The price of Shandong Junan large peanuts is 4.15 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Henan Zhengyang is 4.35 yuan per catty, remaining stable; the price of Liaoning Changtu Baisha peanuts is 4.0 yuan per catty, and that of Jilin Fuyu Baisha peanuts is 3.9 yuan per catty, both remaining stable. The price of general peanuts is stable. The purchase price of oil mills is stable, mostly in the range of 7300 - 7800 yuan per ton. The price of Sudanese peanuts is 8500 yuan per ton, remaining stable [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rate of oil mills has slightly decreased. As of September 4th, the weekly operating rate of peanut oil mills is 5.26%, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week. The arrival volume of oil mills has decreased. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 72,600 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 38,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [14]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has slightly decreased, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The pressing profit of oil mills is 193 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,800 yuan per ton, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,800 yuan per ton, both remaining stable. The price of peanut meal is 3260 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week [18]. - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the October peanut price has fluctuated at the bottom, and the 10 - 1 spread is stable at around 130 yuan. The basis has declined [23]. - **Peanut Import**: In July, the import volume of peanut kernels was 9500 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 103,000 tons, a 77% decrease compared to the same period last year. In July, the export volume of peanut kernels was 9000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 95,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the import volume of peanut oil was 42,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 223,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to last year [28]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, oil - mill purchase prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts; the operating rate of peanut oil mills, peanut inventory, and pressing volume; the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil; the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts and the spread trends of different peanut contracts; the import and export volumes of peanut kernels and peanut oil [9][13][17][21][27].

Report Title - Syrup Premix Restrictions May Be Relaxed, Zhengzhou Sugar Prices Weaken [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The ISO predicts a significantly smaller supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season compared to 4.88 million tons in the current season. With high expectations for increased global sugar production, the US sugar price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further downward space is limited, but the breakthrough of key support levels should be monitored. [3] - Domestically, domestic sugar inventories are low, but a large amount of imported sugar has recently entered the market, becoming the mainstream supply. There are rumors of relaxing some restrictions under Company 1702, which may put slight pressure on sugar prices. Given the current low sugar prices, attention should be paid to key support levels. If the rumor is confirmed, the market may react. [3] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral approach, considering the recent decline in foreign sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered at high points within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling call options can be considered. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Short positions can be considered at high points within the range due to the expected weakness of Zhengzhou sugar following the decline in foreign sugar prices. [4] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [4] - Options: Consider selling call options. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes in the 2025/26 Sugar Season** - Supply - demand balance: The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant reduction from 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with exports of 63.89 million tons and import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago. [6] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Situation** - **Bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region**: In the first half of August, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an 8.17% year - on - year increase; the ATR of sugar - cane was 144.83 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.34 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 55%, a 5.85% increase; ethanol production was 2.193 billion liters, a 5.21% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. [10] - **Accumulated sugar production in the central - southern region**: As of the first half of August in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar - cane crushing volume was 353.881 million tons, a 6.62% year - on - year decrease; the ATR of sugar - cane was 129.26 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.04 kg/ton; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.51%, a 3.37% increase; ethanol production was 16.071 billion liters, an 11.12% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 22.886 million tons, a 4.67% year - on - year decrease, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow from 7.76% to 4.67%. [14] - **Sugar inventory**: Brazil's sugar inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [15] - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. In the first six months of 2025, exports were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production. [16] - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a 17.6% year - on - year decrease. The ISMA predicts that in the 2025/26 season, total sugar production will reach 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar is used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, with about 7 million tons carried over as ending inventory. About 2 million tons of sugar may be exported in this season. [21] - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventories remained at a low level compared to the same period. In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to recover and reach about 11 million tons (subject to weather conditions). [24] - **Import**: High import profits have led to strong import expectations. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, China imported 1.7778 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. As of July in the 2024/25 season, China imported 3.2395 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 344,300 tons or 9.61%. In July 2025, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the total import of syrup and sugar premix was 618,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 561,600 tons. As of July in the 2024/25 season, the total import was 1.258 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 338,100 tons. [39] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in a summarized form; mainly includes various data charts such as Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production, inventory, and domestic sugar import data. [41][47][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The high supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese suppresses prices, but there is support from the cost side [4]. - The "anti - involution" rumor led to a rebound in ferrous alloy prices, but the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated. If the price exceeds the cost line by more than 200, attention should be paid to the pressure [4]. - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, if the demand recovery in September is slow, steel mills may cut production to reduce inventory, leading to downward pressure on raw material demand [4]. - The cost of ferromanganese is supported by stable electricity prices in major production areas, stable port inventory of manganese ore (significantly lower than last year), firm spot prices at ports, and a slightly stronger quotation from overseas mines in October [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the output of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while that of ferromanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to whether the output will continue to decline [4]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, the continuous increase in steel inventory may lead to steel mill production cuts and downward pressure on raw material demand if the demand recovery in September is slow [4]. - **Cost**: The electricity price in major production areas and the port inventory of manganese ore are stable. The port inventory of manganese ore is significantly lower than last year, and the spot price at ports is firm. Overseas mines' quotations for October are slightly stronger, providing support for ferromanganese [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The "anti - involution" rumor on Friday led to a significant rebound in ferrous alloy prices. However, the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, follow the rebound. Due to the high - supply problem, do not be overly optimistic about the rebound height. Pay attention to the pressure levels of around 5800 for ferrosilicon and 6000 for ferromanganese [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No specific content that can be summarized separately is provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 228.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.01 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 11.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 46.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The weekly supply of ferromanganese (99%) was 21.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 16.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and basis trends are presented [16][17]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of weekly output and operating rate trends are presented [21][22]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of blast furnace capacity utilization, steel production, profitability, and inventory trends are presented [27][28]. 3.3.5 Ferromanganese Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5798 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 118 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5880 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 380 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6393 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 693 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6133 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 483 yuan/ton. The production cost in the north was 5824 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 206 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost was 6247 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 575 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.6 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 315 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5588 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 388 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 400 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 257 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 409 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3.7 Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [47][48]. 3.3.8 Bidding Prices of Dual - Silicon by Representative Steel Mills in Hebei No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [52][53]. 3.3.9 Monthly Output of Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of output and cumulative output trends are presented [58][59]. 3.3.10 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of import and export volume trends are presented [65][66]. 3.3.11 Demand for Magnesium Metal No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and output trends are presented [68][69]. 3.3.12 Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [71][72]. 3.3.13 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered later, and the price of the December contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline, and the 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The starch market is weak, with the operating rate and price of starch both decreasing, and the loss of starch factories expanding. The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable [4]. - The net short position of non - commercial traders in US corn has decreased, and the ethanol production is stable. In the domestic market, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased [15][23]. - The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens have different degrees of change. The operating rates of starch sugar and paper mills in the downstream of corn starch have decreased [45][51][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation Analysis** - US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be lowered later. The 400 - cent - per - bushel support for the December contract of US corn is strong, and it will fluctuate in the short term. Domestic corn is continuously auctioned, and new corn in North China will be listed in mid - to - late September. The price of Shandong corn is expected to fall to around 2,200 yuan per ton, and the price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline [4]. - The planting cost of new - season corn has decreased, but farmers may be reluctant to sell. The 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom and should be operated according to seasonal rules [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - For single - side trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel and short - selling the 01 corn contract lightly above 2,200 yuan per ton [5]. - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and the price has rebounded. The December contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded [8]. - As of August 26, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 70,000 lots, showing a decrease. The ethanol production in the US is stable [15]. - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of feed enterprises has decreased. As of September 4, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 27.63 days, a decrease of 0.5 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [19]. - The consumption of deep - processing enterprises is stable. From August 28 to September 4, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.143 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.29 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. As of September 3, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% compared with the previous week [20]. - The corn inventory in northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased. As of August 28, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.127 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 78,000 tons [23]. - The operating rate of the starch industry has decreased. From August 28 to September 4, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, and the starch output was 246,800 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 47.7%, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the previous week. The profit of starch factories has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. As of September 3, the corn starch inventory was 1.265 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week [26]. - The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable, with the arrival price in North China at around 2,430 yuan per ton [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From August 28 to September 4, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 24 yuan per head, an increase of 32 yuan per head compared with the previous week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 184 yuan per head, an increase of 26 yuan per head compared with the previous week [45]. - The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.95 yuan per chicken, down from 1.6 yuan per chicken in the previous week [51]. - The breeding cost of laying hens was 3.53 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan per catty, an increase from - 0.4 yuan per catty in the previous week [51]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 57.68%, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 48.36%, a decrease of 0.94% compared with the previous week [54]. - The operating rate of paper mills has decreased. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 63.37%, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 69.13%, a decrease of 1.04% compared with the previous week [54]. - **Price and Spread** - The price and spread data of corn and its substitutes, as well as the basis and spread data of corn and corn starch futures contracts, are presented through various charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [55][63].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Cotton Prices to Fluctuate as New Cotton Harvest Approaches [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As new cotton gradually enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus will shift to the opening price of new cotton. With high cotton production in Xinjiang and average purchasing enthusiasm from ginning mills, large - scale panic buying is not expected. Some market expectations put the acquisition price around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely listed, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved as the peak season approaches in September, the improvement is limited, so the peak - season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market is also limited. The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [26][42] Summary by Section Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton is expected to show a fluctuating trend [8] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The lint - opening rate was 28%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 51%, 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The growth progress was slower year - on - year but stable, and the good - quality rate, though declining month - on - month, was still higher than the recent average. The weather in the main producing areas was favorable with a low drought index [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending August 21, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 40,700 tons, a 70% week - on - week increase; 2026/27 US upland cotton had a weekly signing volume of 0 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 25,600 tons, a 9% week - on - week decrease [8] - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 29, the number of unsold contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 872 to 21,792, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of unsold contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 495 to 45,490, equivalent to 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week [8] - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 30, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 72.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, but 14.8% slower than last year. The harvesting progress in the two major producing states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, was slow. The future weather in Mato Grosso is expected to be sunny, which may accelerate the harvesting progress [8] - **India**: As of August 30, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.847 million hectares, 327,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in August, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons. The production in the US decreased significantly by 302,000 tons to 2.87 million tons, while China's production increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.8202 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36,960 tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of August 29, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 165,600 tons (a 9.67% decrease) [26] - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - August, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 924,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,800 tons. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 27.23 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of August 21, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.8%, a 0.46% week - on - week increase [26] Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: The historical volatility (HV) on the previous day was 10.4388, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day [40] - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: The previous day's position PCR of the main contract was 0.7377, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6855. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [40] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [44] - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [44] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The report shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the price difference between September and January contracts [47][48] - **Mid - end Situation**: It presents the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, as well as the yarn and grey fabric inventory days [51] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and state - reserve cotton inventory [53] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: It shows the basis differences of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton, as well as the basis difference between the C32S cotton yarn spot and the active Zhengzhou cotton yarn contract [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After major events, coal mines and steel mills are expected to resume normal production, with coking coal supply and demand rising next week. Coking coal spot prices have been declining, and the downstream is cautious. The coke market sentiment has weakened, and the first round of price cuts has partially taken effect. The focus is on the coal mine复产 intensity, and coal mine production is restricted, with supply - demand expected to be balanced and prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended not to chase high prices in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Expected to fluctuate widely in the near term, not recommended to chase high, and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium term [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6] - **Options**: Wait and see [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - After major events, coal mines and steel mills are expected to resume normal production. Coking coal supply and demand will increase next week. The key lies in the coal mine复产 intensity. Although there is room for production increase, it is capped, and the production is unlikely to reach the high of the first half of this year or last year's level. Overall, supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and prices will fluctuate widely. Focus on coal mine production recovery and downstream steel demand [4] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Coking Coal - **Spot Price**: This week, coking coal prices mostly declined, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and the auction failure rate increased. The market sentiment was weak. Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1140 yuan/ton, Mongolian 5 warehouse receipts were 1043 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipts were 1195 yuan/ton. Next week, prices are expected to rise and fall without an obvious trend [8] - **Domestic Supply**: This week, coking coal mine capacity utilization decreased significantly due to more temporary production cuts and shutdowns. It has gradually resumed recently. According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization was 75.78% (- 8.26%). Affected coal mines are expected to resume production next week, and capacity utilization will rise to near the end - of - August level [8] - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: This week, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to a high level, with an average daily of 1158 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 216 vehicles. Port transactions were active, but prices weakened. Next week, the number of customs - cleared vehicles is expected to remain high [8] - **Demand**: This week, coke production decreased slightly. The average daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.32 (- 0.20) tons, that of steel mill coking was 45.72 (- 0.37) tons, and the total coke production was 110.04 (- 0.57) tons. Next week, coke production is expected to increase slightly [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the total coking coal inventory was 3599.5 (- 75.9) tons. Except for a slight increase in port and border inventory, inventories in other links decreased, especially in independent coking enterprises. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and coking coal spot prices declined [8] Coke - **Spot Price**: This week, the coke market sentiment weakened. Steel mills proposed the first - round price cut, which has partially taken effect. Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1527 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1654 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1755 yuan/ton. Next week, the first - round price cut is expected to be fully implemented, and a second - round cut may be proposed [9] - **Supply**: This week, coke production decreased slightly. The average daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.32 (- 0.20) tons, that of steel mill coking was 45.72 (- 0.37) tons, and the total coke production was 110.04 (- 0.57) tons. Next week, coke production is expected to increase slightly [9] - **Demand**: This week, hot metal production decreased significantly. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 228.84 (- 11.29) tons. After major events, steel mills have gradually resumed normal production. Next week, hot metal production is expected to approach the end - of - August level, and raw material demand will recover. In September, hot metal production is expected to remain high [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the total coke inventory was 951.0 (+ 6.9) tons. Due to less impact on coking enterprises than steel mills, coke inventory increased slightly. Coking enterprise inventory was 66.5 (+ 1.2) tons, steel mill coke inventory was 623.7 (+ 13.6) tons, and port inventory was 260.8 (- 7.9) tons [9] - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the national average profit per ton of coke was 64 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 84 yuan/ton, that of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 124 yuan/ton, that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 15 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 85 yuan/ton [9]