1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - cutting in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. The current high position of the October contract has the risk of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer fluctuations. In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - performance ratio for long - position allocation than the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - position allocation in the short - term as it is a off - season contract, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the reverse spread of 12 - 02 and the positive spread of 02 - 04 [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and FC2606 on the previous trading day were 1050.5, 1630.0, 1562.5, 1250.0, and 1439.1 respectively, with changes of - 5.01%, - 0.93%, - 0.23%, - 0.41%, and 6600F respectively. The trading volumes were 33110, 11583, 2298, 1293, and 132 respectively, and the open interest changes were 542, 1510, 61, 307, and 52 respectively [2][20] - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 on the previous day were - 579.5 and 67.5 respectively, with daily changes of - 40.1 and - 11.7 respectively, and weekly changes of - 86.4 and - 71.8 respectively [2][20] Spot Market - **Spot Price Index**: The SCFIS SCFI index (updated every Monday) on September 15, 2025 was 0 points, a decrease of 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFIS SCFI (in US dollars/TEU, updated every Friday) on September 19, 2025 was 1052 US dollars, a decrease of 8.84% from the previous period. The CCFI index on September 19, 2025 was 1470.97 points, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI index on September 19, 2025 was 673.61 points, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [2][20] - **Spot Booking and Quotation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first ten days of October (week 39 - 41). The average quotation for week 39 is 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). For weeks 40 - 41, the shipping space is released together (because most of the cargo volume in week 41 has been diverted during the holiday). The average quotation is 1500 US dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quotes 1450 US dollars, PA (excluding YML) quotes between 1400 - 1600 US dollars, YML quotes 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quotes between 1500 - 1600 US dollars [2][20] Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Capacity Adjustment**: This week, the shipping capacities in October and November have been adjusted downwards. The main changes are that OA has added one more sailing suspension in the schedule of week 41, and PA & MSC have added 2 and 1 more sailing suspensions in weeks 46 and 47 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After classifying all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU respectively [2][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from September 15 - 19, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For rebar, the price changes from September 15 - 19 were 40 in Beijing, 50 in Shanghai, and 0 in other regions. For hot - rolled coils, the price change was 0 in Tianjin and Lecong, and 60 in Shanghai. For cold - rolled coils, the price change was 0 in all regions [1]. Basis and Spread No information provided. Output and Inventory No information provided.

Group 1: Daily Data Overview - Latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1427.78, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 54.61, a monthly decrease of 53.55, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.51% [2] - Latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1680.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year increase of 7.69% [2] - Latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1605.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.34% [2] - Latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1645.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% [2] - Latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1080.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00% [2] Group 2: Production and Inventory Data - Blast furnace operating rate is 90.35, with a weekly increase of 0.17, a monthly increase of 0.10, and a year - on - year increase of 7.70% [2] - Average daily molten iron output is 241.02, with a weekly increase of 0.47, a monthly increase of 0.27, and a year - on - year increase of 7.68% [2] - Coking plant inventory is 42.21, with a weekly decrease of 1.70, a monthly increase of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.24% [2] - Port inventory is 204.10, with a weekly decrease of 1.01, a monthly decrease of 10.52, and a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2] - Steel mill inventory is 644.67, with a weekly increase of 11.38, a monthly increase of 35.08, and a year - on - year increase of 18.79% [2] - Steel mill inventory days are 11.42, with a weekly increase of 0.13, a monthly increase of 0.66, and a year - on - year increase of 5.94% [2] - Coking capacity utilization rate is 75.58, with a weekly increase of 2.97, a monthly increase of 1.45, and a year - on - year increase of 9.46% [2] - Average daily coke output is 51.83, with a weekly decrease of 0.09, a monthly increase of 0.20, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [2] Group 3: Futures Market Data - Futures price of contract 05 is 1866.5, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 57.50, a monthly increase of 94.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89% [2] - Futures price of contract 09 is 1923.5, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly increase of 78.50, a monthly increase of 299.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.46% [2] - Futures price of contract 01 is 1725.5, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 61.00, a monthly increase of 46.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.94% [2] - Basis of contract 05 is - 137.70, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 57.50, a monthly decrease of 146.70, and a year - on - year decrease of 197.58 [2] - Basis of contract 09 is - 194.70, with a daily decrease of 21.50, a weekly decrease of 78.50, a monthly decrease of 351.70, and a year - on - year decrease of 224.58 [2] - Basis of contract 01 is 3.30, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 61.00, a monthly decrease of 98.70, and a year - on - year decrease of 83.58 [2] - Spread between contract 05 and 09 is - 141.00, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly decrease of 48.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 114.00 [2] - Spread between contract 09 and 01 is - 57.00, with a daily decrease of 8.50, a weekly decrease of 21.00, a monthly decrease of 205.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 27.00 [2] - Spread between contract 01 and 05 is 198.00, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 253.00, and a year - on - year increase of 141.00 [2] Group 4: Historical Price Charts - Include historical price charts of Linfen, Lvliang, Rizhao Port, Changzhi, Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [3][4][5][6][9] - Also include historical data charts of 247 - blast furnace capacity utilization, molten iron output, 110 - steel mill coke inventory, Mongolian port pick - up price, Liulin main coking coal, coke main contract basis rate, 230 - coking capacity utilization, 230 - coking output, port total inventory, weighted total coke inventory, coking profit, and full - sample coking coke inventory from 2021 to 2025 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Various prices of silicon ferroalloys (FeSi) and silicon manganese (SiMn) in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, export/import prices, and contract closing prices [1][2][6] - Price differences between different grades and regions are also shown, such as 72%FeSi and 75%FeSi, and price spreads between regions like the north - south spread of SiMn [1][6] Supply - Production data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including monthly and weekly production volumes, and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][6] - The supply - related data cover 136 sample enterprises for silicon ferroalloys and the overall production situation of silicon manganese in China [4][6] Demand - Demand - related data include the demand volume of silicon manganese in China, and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] - Production data of related industries like crude steel, stainless - steel, and metal magnesium are also presented, which are relevant to the demand for ferroalloys [4] Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory levels of sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [5][7] - Inventory average available days in different regions and the whole country are also shown [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi [5] - Profit data cover the production profit of semi - coke, the profit of silicon ferroalloys in different regions, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions [5][7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - slashing in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. High current positions pose risks of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer [1]. - In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long - positions compared to the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - positions in the short - term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the 12 - 02 reverse spread and the 02 - 04 positive spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC and FC futures contracts are presented. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1050.5 with a 5.01% increase, while the FC2512 contract closed at 1630.0 with a 0.93% decrease [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are provided, such as the EC2510 - 2512 spread being - 579.5, showing a - 40.1 change compared to the previous day [1]. Index Information - **Shipping Indexes**: Various shipping indexes are updated weekly or monthly. For instance, the SCHIS index was 0 on September 15, 2025, down 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFI index was 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, 2025, down 8.84% from the previous period [1]. Spot Market Information - **Downstream Booking**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the period from the end of September to the beginning of October (week 39 - 41). The average quote for week 39 is 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), and for weeks 40 - 41, it is 1500 dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market) [1]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU [1]. News and Other Information - **Military Action News**: On September 20, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces expanded their ground operations in Gaza City, resulting in 34 Palestinian deaths in the past 24 hours [3]. - **Index Delay Note**: The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days for publication [4].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3643.70 with no change [3] - London Silver's latest price is 41.86 with no change [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1369.00 with no change [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1161.00 with no change [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 63.57 with no change [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 9962.50 with a change of 20.00 [3] - The US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.37 with no change [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.18 with no change [3] - Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.36 with no change [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 148.00 with no change [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with a change of 0.02 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16300.91 with no change [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1159.44, a decrease of 44.08 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 994.56, an increase of 18.90 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15205.14 with no change [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1283.61 with no change [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, an increase of 1.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and fluctuated widely recently, and the domestic and foreign near - months of FU oscillated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level, the monthly spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases support the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and domestic FU should be considered with a short - term domestic and foreign oscillating and bullish mindset. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be widened on dips, and attention should be paid to quota usage [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | 381.06 | 382.97 | - 0.38 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | 435.93 | 427.48 | - 6.73 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.95 | - 5.82 | 0.82 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 671.73 | 668.48 | - 9.07 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | - 235.80 | - 241.00 | 2.34 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.47 | 24.80 | - 0.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 54.87 | 44.51 | - 6.35 | [3] Singapore Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 392.66 | 390.12 | - 5.94 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 404.29 | 400.69 | - 6.57 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 466.57 | 465.21 | - 7.07 | | Singapore GO M1 | 87.42 | 87.81 | - 0.53 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.97 | - 5.13 | - 0.16 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | - 180.34 | - 184.58 | - 3.14 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.42 | 390.94 | - 6.53 | | FOB VLSFO | 468.08 | 464.79 | - 7.28 | | 380 Basis | - 1.60 | 0.40 | - 0.20 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | - | - | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | - | - | [4] Domestic FU Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2799 | 2796 | - 2 | | FU 05 | 2752 | 2754 | 0 | | FU 09 | 2702 | 2699 | 1 | | FU 01 - 05 | 47 | 42 | - 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 50 | 55 | - 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 97 | - 97 | 3 | [4] Domestic LU Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3349 | 3362 | - 23 | | LU 05 | 3325 | 3337 | - 31 | | LU 09 | 3321 | 3308 | - 14 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 25 | 8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | 29 | - 17 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 28 | - 54 | 9 | [5]

免责声明: 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/22 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： S&PGlobal预测2026年美国玉米种植减少，大豆增加 S&PGlobalCommodityInsights周五预测，美国农民明年将种植9,450万英亩玉米，同比下降4.3%，以及8,400万英亩 大豆，同比增长3.6%。 由于供应充足以及关税争端，农民今年在这两种作物上难以盈利。 种植者将在明年春季种植2026年作物，S&PGlobal的报告称，由于持续的贸易谈判，其初步预估比正常情况存在更 多不确定性。 Imea：马托格罗索州2025/26年度大豆种植率为0.55% 根据Imea的调查，巴西主产区马托格罗索州的大豆种植本周开始取得进展。 截至本周五，2025/26年度大豆种植已达到估计面积的0.55%，而去年同期2024/25年度同期为0.27%。 据Imea称，该州的大豆种植高于该时期0.48%的历史平均水平。 Pátria AgroNegócios：巴西大豆种植率为0.7% 咨询公司PátriaAgroNegócios的调查显示，截至本周五，巴西2025/2026年度 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Non-ferrous Arbitrage Morning Report" released by the Non-ferrous Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025, focusing on cross - market, cross - period, and cross -品种 arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Copper - Spot price: domestic 79980, LME 9898, ratio 8.05; March price: domestic 79880, LME 9963, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.11, profit - 331.21; Spot export profit - 55.51 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22000, LME 2969, ratio 7.41; March price: domestic 22060, LME 2918, ratio 5.87; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3326.26 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20810, LME 2698, ratio 7.71; March price: domestic 20795, LME 2693, ratio 7.74; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.37, profit - 1780.86 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120750, LME 15146, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.18, profit - 2190.00 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 17025, LME 1967, ratio 8.64; March price: domestic 17200, LME 2011, ratio 10.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 347.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Copper - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 230, 260, 240, 240 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 500, 898, 1305, 1712 respectively [4] Zinc - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 5, 25, 45, 75 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 332, 452, 571 respectively [4] Aluminum - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 20, 20, 15, 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 respectively [4] Lead - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 35, 55, 25, 30 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 respectively [4] Nickel - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 790, 980, 1220, 1460 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 640, theoretical spread is 5579 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Copper - Current month contract - spot spread is - 330, theoretical spread is 398; Sub - month contract - spot spread is - 100, theoretical spread is 874 [4] Zinc - Current month contract - spot spread is 35, theoretical spread is 182; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 40, theoretical spread is 311 [4] Lead - Current month contract - spot spread is 120, theoretical spread is 188; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 155, theoretical spread is 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.62, 3.84, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.46, 3.74, 5.00, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]

Group 1 - The report is a scrap steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The report provides scrap steel prices in different regions from September 15 - 19, 2025, including East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China [3] - The prices in East China from September 15 - 19 were 2242, 2257, 2259, 2258, 2258 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in North China from September 15 - 19 were 2329, 2333, 2333, 2332, 2330 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Central China from September 15 - 19 were 2071, 2074, 2080, 2081, 2081 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in South China from September 15 - 19 were 2260, 2270, 2268, 2261, 2259 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Northeast China from September 15 - 19 were 2284, 2286, 2286, 2290, 2290 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Southwest China from September 15 - 19 were 2152, 2154, 2169, 2170, 2168 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3]