甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/23 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动力煤期 | 日期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | 货 | | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 801 | 2025/10/1 6 | 2305 | 2285 | 2495 | 2500 | 2470 | 2665 | 265 | 325 | 20 | 5 | - | | 801 | 2025/10/1 7 | 2280 | 2263 | 2505 | 2500 | 2470 | 2653 | 263 | 325 | 5 | -10 | - | | 801 | 2025/10/2 0 | 2275 | 2253 | 2495 | 2500 | 2470 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - No information provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Coke Price - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1482.39, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.61, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.70% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1735.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.72% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1660.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.70% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1700.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.30% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1180.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.59% [2] Production and Inventory - The blast furnace operating rate is 90.33, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 0.02, and a year - on - year increase of 3.22% [2] - The average daily pig iron output is 240.95, with a weekly decrease of 0.59, a monthly decrease of 0.07, and a year - on - year increase of 2.81% [2] - The coking plant inventory is 37.59, with a weekly decrease of 4.95, a monthly decrease of 4.62, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% [2] - The port inventory is 195.15, with a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly decrease of 8.95, and a year - on - year increase of 8.28% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 639.44, with a weekly decrease of 11.38, a monthly decrease of 5.23, and a year - on - year increase of 13.58% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.19, with a weekly decrease of 0.23, a monthly decrease of 0.23, and a year - on - year increase of 3.80% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.95, with a weekly decrease of 0.05, a monthly decrease of 0.63, and a year - on - year increase of 2.57% [2] - The average daily coke output is 51.28, with a weekly decrease of 1.03, a monthly decrease of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 0.23% [2] Futures Market - The latest price of the futures contract 05 is 1840.5, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly increase of 43.50, a monthly increase of 31.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.53% [2] - The latest price of the futures contract 09 is 1921, with a daily increase of 3.50, a weekly increase of 45.00, a monthly increase of 76.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [2] - The latest price of the futures contract 01 is 1696.5, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 47.50, a monthly increase of 32.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.38% [2] - The 05 basis is - 69.11, with a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly decrease of 43.50, a monthly increase of 11.09, and a year - on - year decrease of 273.20 [2] - The 09 basis is - 149.61, with a daily decrease of 3.50, a weekly decrease of 45.00, a monthly decrease of 33.41, and a year - on - year decrease of 303.20 [2] - The 01 basis is 74.89, with a daily decrease of 5.00, a weekly decrease of 47.50, a monthly increase of 10.59, and a year - on - year decrease of 204.70 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 144.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 4.00, a monthly increase of 0.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 68.50 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 80.50, with a daily decrease of 0.50, a weekly decrease of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 44.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.00 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 224.50, with a daily decrease of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 2.50, a monthly increase of 44.00, and a year - on - year increase of 98.50 [2]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is $4070.00, down $99.60 [1] - London Silver latest price is $47.76, down $2.19 [1] - London Platinum latest price is $1562.00, down $64.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is $1421.00, down $63.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is $58.50, up $1.26 [1] - LME Copper latest price is $10669.00, down $0.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 691.69, down 57.67 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1052.37, down 6.29 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15597.61, down 79.03 [2] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is -1.00 [2] Group 3: Other Related Data - Dollar Index latest is 98.91, down 0.06 [11] - Euro - US Dollar latest is 1.16, no change [11] - British Pound - US Dollar latest is 1.34, no change [11] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen latest is 151.97, up 0.04 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS data incomplete [11]

Group 1: SP Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 22, 2025, was 5220.00 [3] - The changes in the closing price, converted US dollar price, daily change, and basis of Shandong and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Silver Star from October 16 to October 22, 2025, are presented, with the highest daily increase of 5.47776% on October 17 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profits of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star are -145.57, -593.29, and -101.92 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Information - From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp, as well as the average prices in Shandong, remained unchanged [4] - During the same period, the indices of cultural paper (double-offset and double-copper), packaging paper (white card), and the living paper index also remained unchanged, except for a slight change in the living paper index on October 21 [4] - The profit margins of double-offset paper, double-copper paper, white card paper, and living paper from October 17 to October 22, 2025, are presented, with a -0.0955 change in the living paper profit margin [4] - From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper remained relatively stable [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1575.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 25.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 1.56%. The price of Yuanmei Port Delivery Price is 1095.00, with a daily decrease of 5.00, a weekly increase of 52.00, a monthly increase of 105.00, and an annual decrease of 7.98%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1470.00, with a daily and weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 120.00, and an annual decrease of 13.53%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1550.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly increase of 50.00, and an annual decrease of 11.43% [2]. - **Foreign Coking Coal**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 204.50, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly increase of 2.50, and an annual decrease of 7.70%. The price of Goonyella is 204.50, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly increase of 1.50, and an annual decrease of 7.70% [2]. - **Futures Market**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1272.00, with a daily increase of 7.00, a weekly increase of 28.00, a monthly decrease of 52.00, and an annual decrease of 9.24%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 1351.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 23.50, a monthly decrease of 20.50, and an annual decrease of 4.69%. The price of Futures Contract 01 is 1197.00, with a daily increase of 4.50, a weekly increase of 35.00, a monthly decrease of 31.50, and an annual decrease of 11.33% [2]. Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3318.39, with a weekly increase of 24.01, a monthly decrease of 64.08, and an annual decrease of 12.29% [2]. - **Sub - Inventory**: Coal mine inventory is 205.41, with a weekly increase of 9.55, a monthly decrease of 27.38, and an annual decrease of 19.47%. Port inventory is 294.99, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 23.88, and an annual decrease of 27.62%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 781.13, with a weekly decrease of 6.93, a monthly decrease of 12.60, and an annual increase of 6.33%. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 959.06, with a weekly decrease of 78.65, a monthly increase of 75.52, and an annual increase of 2.55% [2]. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.24, with a weekly decrease of 0.94, a monthly decrease of 1.63, and no annual change [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 84.72, with a weekly decrease of 0.81, a monthly decrease of 1.31, and an annual decrease of 2.06% [2]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis of Futures Contract 05 is - 53.84, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly increase of 27.17, a monthly increase of 232.46, and an annual decrease of 57.86%. The basis of Futures Contract 09 is - 132.84, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly increase of 31.67, a monthly increase of 200.96, and an annual increase of 10.09%. The basis of Futures Contract 01 is 21.16, with a daily decrease of 4.50, a weekly increase of 20.17, a monthly increase of 211.96, and an annual decrease of 0.62%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 79.00, with a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly increase of 4.50, a monthly decrease of 31.50, and an annual increase of 3.94%. The 9 - 1 spread is 154.00, with a daily increase of 8.50, a weekly decrease of 11.50, a monthly increase of 11.00, and an annual increase of 1.28%. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75.00, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly increase of 20.50, and an annual increase of 0.46% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various steel products (including different types of rebar and hot - rolled, cold - rolled coils) in multiple locations from October 16th to October 22nd, 2025, along with the price changes during this period [1] Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content Output and Inventory - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The report mainly presents the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 23, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the domestic spot price was 84980, LME spot price was 10663, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The domestic March price was 85370, LME March price was 10669, and the March ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21910, LME spot price was 3350, and the spot ratio was 6.54. The domestic March price was 22040, LME March price was 3011, and the March ratio was 5.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.49, with a profit of - 6539.20 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20980, LME spot price was 2800, and the spot ratio was 7.49. The domestic March price was 21050, LME March price was 2797, and the March ratio was 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2452.65 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123500, LME spot price was 14998, and the spot ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1463.49 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, LME spot price was 1953, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The domestic March price was 17185, LME March price was 1993, and the March ratio was 11.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 232.67 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 40, - 10, - 40, - 80 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, 1828 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 15, 55, 70, 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, 570 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 30, 35, 35, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, 567 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 15, 25, 35, 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, 531 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 260, 440, 590, 790 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 620, and the theoretical spread was 5833 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 445 and 485 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 487 and 963 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75 and 90 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 176 and 304 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 185 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 299 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 23, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.87, 4.06, 4.97, 0.96, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.53, 3.80, 5.34, 0.93, 1.41, 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week [3]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased and was at a historical high year - on - year. Floating storage inventory stabilized after de - stocking and was at a high level year - on - year. ARA residue inventory increased slightly and was at a low level in the same period of history. EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. Fujairah inventory increased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year. Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased significantly this week [4]. - Recently, the Singapore high - sulfur spot market weakened. The cracking was supported by raw material procurement, and the short - term downside space was limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern. The FU internal - external spread will be viewed within a range recently, and the 01 contract is bearish in the end. This week, the LU market was still weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market is in a pattern of shorting on rallies, and attention should be paid to the quota usage for internal - external spread [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 16 to 22, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 and 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 7.05 and 4.96 respectively. Other indicators such as Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore**: During the same period, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 and 180cst M1 changed by 4.56 and 4.31 respectively. The Singapore VLSFO M1 price increased by 6.43 [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From October 16 to 22, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 3.18, and the FOB VLSFO price increased by 5.63. The 380 basis decreased by 0.46 [2]. - **Domestic FU**: The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 increased by 44, 36, and 30 respectively from October 16 to 22, 2025 [2]. - **Domestic LU**: The prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 increased by 66, 65, and 70 respectively during the same period [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - There is no clear core view explicitly stated in the given content. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Monthly Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) decreased from 197 on 9/23 to 141 on 10/22, a daily change of -92 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) decreased from 47 on 9/23 to 81 on 10/22, with a daily change of -92 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) decreased from 77 on 9/23 to 71 on 10/22, a daily change of -102 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread decreased from 36 on 9/23 to 19 on 10/22, a daily change of -14 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread increased from 23 on 9/23 to 9 on 10/22, a daily change of 4 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread increased from -4 on 9/23 to -4 on 10/22, a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. Futures - The BU main contract (01) price increased from 3373 on 9/23 to 3249 on 10/22, a daily change of 92 [3]. - The trading volume increased from 280,475 on 9/23 to 389,960 on 10/22, a daily change of 110,926 [3]. - The open interest decreased from 425,862 on 9/23 to 368,817 on 10/22, a daily change of -2,998 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 13,040 from 10/16 to 10/22, with no change [3]. 3. Spot - Brent crude oil price increased from 66.6 on 9/23 to 61.3 on 10/22, a daily change of 0.3 [3]. - Jingbo's price decreased from 3610 on 9/23 to 3310 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. - Hongrun's price remained at 3310 from 10/21 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's price remained at 3330 from 10/20 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's price decreased from 3450 on 9/23 to 3320 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 334 on 9/23 to 464 on 10/22, a daily change of -24 [3]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery's comprehensive profit decreased from 792 on 9/23 to 905 on 10/22, a daily change of -13 [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [1] Key Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from October 16 - 22, 2025: In East China, prices were 2234 on Oct 16, 2229 on Oct 17, 2226 on Oct 20, 2227 on Oct 21, and 2227 on Oct 22; in North China, 2293, 2292, 2298, 2300, 2302 respectively; in Central China, 2053, 2050, 2051, 2051, 2053; in South China, 2220, 2219, 2220, 2226, 2228; in Northeast China, 2258, 2258, 2258, 2256, 2250; in Southwest China, 2135, 2135, 2135, 2134, 2135 [2] -环比 changes: East China 0, North China 2, Central China 2, South China 2, Northeast China -6, Southwest China 1 [2]