最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 705.0 5.0 24.0 3.0 -165.0 25省终端可用天数 22.0 -0.3 2.1 1.1 4.4 秦皇岛5000 615.0 4.0 26.0 -18.0 -145.0 25省终端供煤 587.5 2.2 -21.1 -52.6 -35.4 广州港5500 765.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 -145.0 北方港库存 2050.0 -7.0 23.0 -20.0 -187.5 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 5.0 35.0 10.0 -120.0 北方锚地船舶 86.0 5.0 4.0 16.0 3.0 大同5500 560.0 5.0 40.0 0.0 -150.0 北方港调入量 153.0 -7.4 -9.8 -3.6 -4.0 榆林6000 642.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 -178.0 北方港吞吐量 156.7 3.3 -11.3 3.2 73.0 榆林6200 670.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 -177.0 CBCFI海运指数 694.0 1.9 89.7 -22.1 29 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA: Near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases slightly, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates slightly, the basis weakens, and spot processing fees recover slightly. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas devices operate smoothly, PXN weakens month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remain stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widens. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA destocking, polyester shows no unexpected performance, and new production is added, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees have reached a very low level for a long time, and PX supply gradually returns. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduces load, coal - based start - up remains stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexist, arrivals remain stable while shipments are dull, and port inventory accumulates slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels rise, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. Near - term new device commissioning is earlier than expected, and valuation is significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber: Upstream, Zhongtai and Xianglu increase load, and the start - up rate rises to 95.4%. Sales improve month - on - month, and inventory continues to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished - product inventory decreases. In the future, the rate of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable. The price of Thai cup rubber remains stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its derivatives: There are fluctuations in prices and production profits of styrene and related products such as ABS, EPS, and PS. The start - up rates of these products also show certain trends, but no clear overall prediction is given in the report [1]. 3. Summary by Product - related Content PTA - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated between 66.7 - 68.5. PTA spot prices were around 6655 - 6710, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(- 82). PX processing spreads were between 105.04 - 114.16 [1]. - **Device status**: Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton device is under maintenance [1]. MEG - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, MEG prices fluctuated. For example, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 850 (except on September 19 when it was 845), and the MEG port inventory was 46.5. The basis was around 01(+ 90) [1]. - **Device status**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped operating again [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - related - **Market data**: The spot price was around 6412, and the market basis was around 10 - 20. - **Device status**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their loads, and the start - up rate reached 95.4% [1]. Natural Rubber - related - **Market data**: From September 1 - 9, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - cream rubber was between 14,335 - 16,100 [1]. - **Analysis**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable [1]. Styrene and Derivatives - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was between 5885 - 6080 [1]. - **Profit situation**: Profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed daily [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Report name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Contract Data - On September 19, the closing price of the main contract was 11,445, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3] - The position volume of the main contract was 75,259, a daily increase of 756 and a weekly increase of 54,200 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,561, a daily decrease of 21,553 and a weekly increase of 41,606 [3] Warehouse Receipts and Ratios - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,230, a daily decrease of 760 and a weekly decrease of 3,440 [3] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 36.78, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 29 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber was 20 higher than the previous day and 70 higher than the previous week [3] - The basis (two - oil) of butadiene rubber was 255, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [3] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily decrease of 40 [3] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 130, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] Price and Cost - The Shandong market price was 11,600, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1525, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 290, a daily decrease of 27 and a weekly decrease of 177 [3] - The disk processing profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The import profit was - 82,940, a daily increase of 39 and a weekly increase of 1,657 [3] - The export profit was 107, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 142 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 75 [3] - The Jiangsu market price was 9,200, a daily increase of 50 [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR China was 1070, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 25 [3] Profit Data - The carbon four extraction profit was not available for the latest data [3] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 106, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] - The import profit was 450, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly increase of 215 [3] - The export profit was - 899, a daily decrease of 43 and a weekly increase of 60 [3] Group 4: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 938, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 175 [3] - The ABS production profit data was not available for the latest data [3] - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 855, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3] Group 5: Price Spread Data - The RU - BR spread was - 59,724, a daily decrease of 791 and a weekly decrease of 54,485 [3] - The NR - BR spread was - 62,959, a daily decrease of 756 and a weekly decrease of 54,455 [3] - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,130, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly decrease of 150 [3] - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,050, with no daily or weekly change [3] - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3] - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1000, with no daily or weekly change [3]

Report Overview - The report is an asphalt morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 22, 2025 [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - No core view is explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 19, the BU main contract was at 3421, down 6 from the previous day and 42 for the week. Other contracts like BU06, BU09, etc., also showed various price changes [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 246,616, up 36,008 from the previous day but down 21,872 for the week. The open interest was 409,431, up 675 from the previous day and down 34,400 for the week [4] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory was 23,240, unchanged from the previous day and down 3,250 for the week [4] Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 3,520, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 for the week; the East China market price was 3,590, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 for the week; and prices in other regions also had different changes [4] - **Refinery Prices**: For example, Jingbo (Haiyun) was at 3,620, down 10 from the previous day and 30 for the week; Xinhai (Xin Bohai) was at 3,660, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis was 6, up 6 from the previous day and 22 for the week; the East China basis was 169, up 6 from the previous day and down 8 for the week; and other regional bases also changed [4] - **Calendar Spreads**: For example, 03 - 06 was 17, down 2 from the previous day and up 15 for the week; 06 - 09 was 8, down 1 from the previous day and up 75 for the week [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread was 18, up 26 from the previous day and down 40 for the week [4] - **Profits**: The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -51, up 24 from the previous day and down 36 for the week; ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 387, up 7 from the previous day and down 52 for the week; and other profit indicators also had different changes [4] Related Prices - **Crude Oil**: Brent crude oil was at 67.4, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 0.5 for the week [4] - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market price of gasoline was 7,483, down 28 from the previous day and 74 for the week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6,438, down 30 from the previous day and 40 for the week [4] - **Residual Oil**: The Shandong market price of residual oil was 3,660, down 40 from the previous day and up 85 for the week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to arriving resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data and Changes - From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends. South China increased from 4540 to 4650 (+100), East China decreased from 4504 to 4415 (-92), and Shandong remained at 4530 with a previous increase of 30. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased from 4790 to 4700 (-60). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - On a daily basis, the PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6) [1]. - Ex - market prices rose. The FEI spread increased by 1, the MB spread remained unchanged, and the CP spread was -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP dropped to 75 (-3); PG - FEI dropped to 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP increased to 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7). FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - PDH - to - PP profits continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. The inflow to ports decreased, the outflow increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfafa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1].

Report Information - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and terminal demand is weakening, so the price is weak, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - **Starch**: In September, companies start to destock for the new season, pressuring corn prices. In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The uncertainty of future production increases. Domestically, the market follows the trend of raw sugar, with downward pressure on the price due to the arrival of imported sugar [4] - **Cotton**: The market is in a shock state, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [6] - **Eggs**: Since September, due to increased demand for school opening and festival stocking, the spot price has rebounded. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Attention should be paid to the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [9] - **Apples**: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is temporarily stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - **Pigs**: There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure still exists due to insufficient production capacity reduction. The spot price is hitting new lows, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, with the base difference of corn changing by 9, and the base difference of starch changing by 8 [2] - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weak, and long - term it is under pressure. For starch, short - term price reduction to reduce inventory, long - term bearish outlook [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 7, and the import profit changing by - 47 [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecasts) decreased by 206 [6] - **Analysis**: The market is in shock, waiting for demand verification, and the downward space is limited [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 237 [9] - **Analysis**: Spot price rebounded in September, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the base differences in different months changed slightly [10][11] - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, the current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is stable [11] Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other places changed slightly, and the base difference changed by 5 [15] - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure exists, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price changes, production and sales, and profit margins [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40, while the price of Shandong 5mm large - plate remained unchanged. Futures contracts such as FG05 and FG01 also had price increases [2] - **Production and Sales**: In the glass market, the production and sales in Shahe area declined, with poor shipments at low prices. In Hubei, factory transactions were acceptable, but the transactions of new products in the middle - reaches were poor. The production and sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 88, Hubei 102, East China 99, and South China 102 [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources varied. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 7.7, and the profit of South China natural - gas glass decreased by 6.3. The cost of North China coal - fired glass increased by 16.7 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions generally increased. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased by 30, and the price of North China light soda increased by 40. Futures contracts such as SA05 and SA01 also had price increases [2] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased significantly, while the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of soda ash production in different production methods and regions also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 6.2, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 35.5. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 28.3 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak trend. The current valuation of the December contract is relatively neutral to high, and it may experience a deeper short - term decline. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. In terms of valuation, the February contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long positions compared to the December contract, while the April contract has a relatively high valuation and is more suitable for short positions in the off - season, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1105.9, down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 19585, an open interest of 47173, and a decrease of 2436 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1645.3, down 1.60%, with a trading volume of 9304, an open interest of 20570, and an increase of 133 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1566.1, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 1549, an open interest of 7215, and an increase of 110 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1255.2, down 2.32%, with a trading volume of 1289, an open interest of 8534, and an increase of 200 in open interest [2][17]. - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1453.5, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 68, an open interest of 936, and an increase of 12 in open interest [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 539.4, with a daily increase of 22.9 and a weekly decrease of 86.8 [2][17]. - FC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 79.2, with a daily decrease of 14.0 and a weekly decrease of 30.2 [2][17]. Spot Market Indicators - SCHIS: On September 15, 2025, it was 0 points, down 100.00% from the previous period and down 11.68% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - SCEI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and down 11.21% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - CCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and down 2.79% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - NCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and down 7.92% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quote was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quote was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance's quote was between 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance's quote was between 1600 - 1720 dollars [2][17]. - Week 40: The average quote was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points on the futures market). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL reduced its price to between 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [2][17]. - Week 41: MSK kept the price at 1400 dollars. On Thursday, YML reduced the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points on the futures market. CMA reduced the price by 100 to 1600 dollars, and EMC's Week 40 price was 1500 dollars [2][17].

Group 1: Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility compared to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] - Implied volatility quantile represents the historical level of the current variety's implied volatility. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the current implied volatility is low [4] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile Ranking - For the 50ETF, the implied volatility quantile is 0.80, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.76 [5][7] - For the 300 Index, the implied volatility quantile is 0.78, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.71 [5] - For other varieties such as Tianjun, Yingge, etc., their implied and historical volatility quantiles are also provided in the report [5] Group 3: Volatility Spread Chart - The report presents the IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, etc. through charts, showing the relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility for each option [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the copper price corrects, long positions can be considered for mid - term layout below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, pay attention to demand. Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Indonesian forestry department's takeover of part of the nickel mine [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation remains weak, and it is affected by the Indonesian incident and macro - anti - involution expectations [6]. - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance in September and October, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan this week and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream is in the stage of consuming finished - product inventory [1]. - **Premium**: The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive arbitrage has room [1]. - **Macro**: Copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and attention should be paid to the possible realization of short - term bullish factors after the FOMC meeting next week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices declined slightly this week. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream开工 improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply is affected by smelter maintenance and high - volume imported zinc ore. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has production resistance [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fluctuated slightly this week. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehousing [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak [3]. - **News**: The Indonesian parade subsided, and the Indonesian forestry department took over part of the nickel mine [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices were stable this week. The inventory in Xijiao and Wuxi remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to recover, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6]. - **Cost**: The price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rose this week. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be tight, and demand is in the peak season but not prosperous [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Domestic inventory fluctuated, and LME inventory rebounded from a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is short - term tight, and demand has limited elasticity [9]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon changed this week, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September and October [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. The futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week, and the basis strengthened slightly [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by compliance disturbances, and the demand is in the peak season but the destocking amplitude is small [12]. - **Price Elasticity**: The price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12].