| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1160.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1319.0 | 1298.0 | 1308.0 | -11.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1232.0 | 1210.0 | 1223.0 | -9.0 | 13.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1384.0 | 1361.0 | 1370.0 | -14.0 | 9.0 ...

| 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/23 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/16 | 1970 | 2080 | 2120 | 2310 | -31 | 90 | 202 2700 | 2800 | 279 | 110 | | 2025/10/17 | 1970 | 2080 | 2120 | 2310 | -37 | 90 | 203 2700 | 2800 | 281 | - | | 2025/10/20 | 2020 | 2100 | 2140 | 2310 | -38 | 70 | 194 2700 | 2800 | 275 | - | | 2025/10/21 | 2020 | 2130 | 2170 | 2310 | -14 | 40 | 195 27 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Although the spot supply pressure is high and the PG basis has dropped sharply and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term [4]. - There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up. The PDH operating rate is 68.76% (-2.12pct), and enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the prices of civil LPG showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. The price in East China was 4259 (-5), in Shandong 4250 (+50), and in South China 4400 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4390 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -76 (-39), and the November - December spread was 145 (-1). FEI increased significantly, and CP increased slightly, at 478 (+21) and 447 (+5) US dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts [4]. - The external market prices dropped significantly. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, at 78 (+26) in South China. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5) [4]. - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4].

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 764.0 5.0 36.0 64.0 -91.0 25省终端可用天数 24.0 -0.4 4.0 3.1 6.4 秦皇岛5000 674.0 5.0 36.0 63.0 -81.0 25省终端供煤 529.4 -0.1 -79.1 -110.6 -93.4 广州港5500 805.0 5.0 25.0 40.0 -105.0 北方港库存 2244.0 0.0 50.0 150.0 -93.7 鄂尔多斯5500 555.0 10.0 50.0 80.0 -75.0 北方锚地船舶 88.0 -8.0 -24.0 -19.0 36.0 大同5500 600.0 10.0 45.0 70.0 -110.0 北方港调入量 146.9 5.6 17.1 -17.9 -26.6 榆林6000 682.0 10.0 30.0 60.0 -137.0 北方港吞吐量 140.1 -7.3 -6.8 -24.7 10.4 榆林6200 71 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] Key Points BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR12 main contract on October 22 was 11,050, up 10 from the previous day and down 85 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest was 71,972, down 836 from the previous day and up 53,561 from the previous week [4]. - The trading volume was 79,454, down 44,237 from the previous day and up 2,550 from the previous week [4]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 8,920, up 300 from the previous day and up 170 from the previous week [4]. - The long - short ratio was 40.34, down 2 from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. Basis, Spread and Inter - Variety Spread - The basis between BR12 and BR01 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The spread between BR01 and BR02 was 10, down 5 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between RU - BR was 4,100, down 10 from the previous day and up 335 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between NR - BR was 1,300, down 25 from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,950, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit was 230, up 102 from the previous day and up 203 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit was - 1,277, down 2 from the previous day and up 255 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was 1,803, up 2 from the previous day and down 47 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 8,500, down 100 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 8,500, down 25 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - The CFR China price was 975, down 35 from the previous week [4]. Profit - The carbon - four extraction profit was 1,885 (data for October 20) [4]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 104, down 25 from the previous day and up 20 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit was 203 (data for October 22), up 234 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was - 921, down 48 from the previous day and down 386 from the previous week [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 863, unchanged from the previous day and up 138 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit was - 33 (data for October 20) [4]. - The SBS production profit was 175, down 300 from the previous day and down 810 from the previous week [4].

Group 1: Spot Market - Newman powder price is 778, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 6; its import profit is -26.32 [1] - PB powder price is 781, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 6; its import profit is -22.41 [1] - Mac powder price is 777, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 7; its import profit is 7.00 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 749, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 4; its import profit is 9.43 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 744, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -1; its import profit is -1.17 [1] - Super special powder price is 705, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is 6.32 [1] - Carajás powder price is 905, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -9.09 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 816, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 6; its import profit is -11.12 [1] - IOC6 price is 782, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3 [1] - SSFG price is 787, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 903, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 3 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 738, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 4 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 903, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 3 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 768, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 6; its import profit is 4.25 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 840, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 6 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 638, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Atlas powder price is 739, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -1 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1021, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 8 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - i2601 price is 774.0, with a daily change of 4.5 and a weekly change of -2.5; its monthly spread is -43.0 [1] - i2605 price is 753.0, with a daily change of 3.5 and a weekly change of -1.0; its monthly spread is 21.0 [1] - i2609 price is 731.0, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of -2.0; its monthly spread is 22.0 [1] - FE01 price is 100.25, with a daily change of 0.10 and a weekly change of -1.25; its monthly spread is -4.06 [1] - FE05 price is 98.24, with a daily change of 0.04 and a weekly change of -0.79; its monthly spread is 2.01 [1] - FE09 price is 96.19, with a daily change of 0.02 and a weekly change of -0.67; its monthly spread is 2.05 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, near - term TA partial device load increased,开工 slightly rose, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fee stayed low; PX domestic operation declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened. In the future, polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - existed, load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were dull, port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. In the future, EG's existing operation has reached a relatively high level, combined with new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, the supply side may have some negative feedback. Also, coal prices have strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put opportunities near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation was stable, operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved. In the future, the overall operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not significantly increased. Staple fiber's own exports maintain high growth. With acceptable spot benefits, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable while rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, crude oil price remained unchanged at 61.3, PTA inner - market spot price increased by 50 to 4370, and polyester gross profit decreased by 13 to 118. The basis decreased by 1 to - 88, and sales decreased by 0.9 to 0.75 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term TA partial device load increased,开工 slightly rose, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fee stayed low. PX domestic operation declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened [2]. - Future Outlook: Polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged at 780, MEG inner - market price increased by 32 to 4107, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 32 to - 65. The total load and coal - based MEG load remained unchanged at 77.0 and 81.4 respectively, and the port inventory remained unchanged at 57.9 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - existed, load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were dull, port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. The 400,000 - ton Fulin device was under maintenance [2]. - Future Outlook: EG's existing operation has reached a relatively high level, combined with new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, the supply side may have some negative feedback. Also, coal prices have strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put opportunities near the coal - based cost [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25 to 6365, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged at 264, while the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 25 to 15 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term device operation was stable, operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved [2]. - Future Outlook: The overall operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not significantly increased. Staple fiber's own exports maintain high growth. With acceptable spot benefits, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price was 20 to 1845, and the weekly change of RU main contract price was 255 to 15150. The daily change of RU main contract price was 0 on October 22, and the daily change of the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was 0 [2]. - Market Situation: The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable while rainfall affects tapping [2]. - Strategy: Wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged at 780, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased to 674, and the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 10 to 805. The daily change of ABS (0215A) price on October 22 was - 100 to 8600 [6]. - Profit Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, styrene domestic profit changed from - 482 to - 488, EPS domestic profit increased from 245 to 405, and PS domestic profit changed from - 289 to - 181 [6].

Group 1 - The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has uncertainties, with Trump indicating that the anticipated meeting may not occur for various reasons [8][12] - China's strict control over local government hidden debt is showing effects, with the issuance of municipal bonds reaching the lowest level in five years [8][12] - The stock market in China saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% to 3916.33 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.06% [1][5] Group 2 - Haier Smart Home is considering an IPO for its IoT subsidiary, seeking to raise approximately $500 million (about 3.9 billion HKD) [10] - Ant Group-backed GCash plans to delay its IPO in the Philippines to the second half of 2026 due to a sluggish stock market [10] - First Pacific Company plans to spin off its water treatment services in the Philippines, with shares priced at 15 Philippine pesos each [10] Group 3 - HSBC repurchased 800 shares at a price of 102.1 HKD, totaling approximately 81,600 HKD, as part of its ongoing buyback program [14] - Pop Mart reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 245% to 250% in Q3, with significant increases in both domestic and overseas markets [14] - Cinda Biologics entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceuticals, receiving an upfront payment of $1.2 billion [14] Group 4 - The third quarter copper production of China Molybdenum increased by 11% year-on-year, with zinc production rising by 26% [14] - Cathay Pacific and Airbus announced a joint investment of up to $70 million (approximately 545 million HKD) to promote sustainable aviation fuel development [14] - China Life Insurance reported a significant increase in its stock price, reflecting strong market performance [18]

Report Information - The report is the Yong'an Basis Morning Report released by the Research Center on October 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Category Macro - IF had a spot price of 4608, a change of 70, a basis of 30, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.74 on October 21, 2025 [2] - IH had a spot price of 3007, a change of 32, a basis of 2, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.28 on October 21, 2025 [2] - IC had a spot price of 7186, a change of 116, a basis of 133, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.92 on October 21, 2025 [2] Black - In Shanghai, rebar had a spot price of 3200, no change, a basis of 153, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.83 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Beijing, rebar had a spot price of 3190, no change, a basis of 143, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.09 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shanghai, hot-rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 51, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.77 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 54, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.46 on October 21, 2025 [3] - At Tianjin Port, coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 16, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.12 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For port warehouse receipts, coking coal had a spot price of 1583, a change of - 17, a basis of 406, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.98 on October 21, 2025 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, thermal coal had a spot price of 759, a change of 6, a basis of - 42, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of - 0.25 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - price glass in Shahe, it had a spot price of 1111, a change of - 24, a basis of 24, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.24 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - price glass in Hubei, it had a spot price of 1070, a change of - 20, a basis of - 17, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.17 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Yinchuan, ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 64, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.60 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, silicomanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 234, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.84 on October 21, 2025 [3] Energy and Chemicals - At the port, methanol had a spot price of 2263, no change, a basis of - 5, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.48 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Henan, methanol had a spot price of 2325, a change of - 25, a basis of 57, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.23 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In southern Shandong, methanol had a spot price of 2485, a change of - 15, a basis of 217, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.59 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Hebei, methanol had a spot price of 2785, a change of 155, a basis of 517, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.98 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, PTA had a spot price of 4327, a change of 28, a basis of - 87, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.89 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, PP had a spot price of 6510, a change of 20, a basis of - 73, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.57 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In North China, LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, no change, a basis of - 43, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.13 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For high - end PVC, it had a spot price of 4615, a change of - 15, a basis of - 90, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.65 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - end PVC, it had a spot price of 4545, a change of - 15, a basis of - 160, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.72 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, asphalt had a spot price of 3500, a change of - 50, a basis of 343, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.76 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, asphalt had a spot price of 3320, a change of - 10, a basis of 243, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In South China, asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 343, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.86 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For the domestic market of ethylene glycol, it had a spot price of 4078, a change of 1, a basis of 74, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.69 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For soda ash, it had a spot price of 1120, a change of - 10, a basis of - 90, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.67 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, pulp had a spot price of 4970, a change of 10, a basis of - 200, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.76 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, staple fiber had a spot price of 6105, a change of 30, a basis of 35, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.46 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For urea, it had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 119, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.90 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shanghai, natural rubber had a spot price of 14800, a change of 290, a basis of - 350, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.68 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For whole latex natural rubber, it had a spot price of 14450, a change of 340, a basis of - 700, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.57 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Qingdao, 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1845, a change of 20, a basis of 780, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 1.00 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For styrene, it had a spot price of 6445, a change of 75, a basis of 7, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of - 0.87 on October 21, 2025 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 21, 2025, copper had a spot price of 85720, a change of 70, a basis of 60, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.22 [4] - On October 21, 2025, international copper had a spot price of 75910, a change of 120, a basis of - 50, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of 0.72 [4] - On October 21, 2025, aluminum had a spot price of 20970, a change of 40, a basis of 10, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.45 [4] - On October 21, 2025, zinc had a spot price of 21940, a change of 70, a basis of - 40, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.60 [4] - On October 21, 2025, lead had a spot price of 17000, a change of 75, a basis of - 195, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.25 [4] - On October 21, 2025, nickel had a spot price of 121700, a change of 400, a basis of 400, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.77 [4] - On October 21, 2025, tin had a spot price of 281300, a change of 1300, a basis of 430, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.25 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu, 43% soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 19, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.06 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Jiangsu, first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8550, a change of 10, a basis of 256, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.09 on October 21, 2025 [5] - The average price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong had a spot price of 2450, a change of - 30, a basis of 129, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.88 on October 21, 2025 [5] - The market average price of rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10400, a change of - 20, a basis of 536, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 1.00 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Guangzhou, 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, no change, a basis of - 4, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [5] - Nationwide, cotton had a spot price of 14530, a change of 50, a basis of 990, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.51 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Guangxi, white sugar had a spot price of 5770, no change, a basis of 332, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.22 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Yunnan, white sugar had a spot price of 5840, no change, a basis of 402, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.55 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2780, a change of - 110, a basis of - 166, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.51 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2710, a change of - 110, a basis of - 236, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.59 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2650, a change of - 100, a basis of - 296, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2700, a change of - 100, a basis of - 246, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.70 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Bei'an, soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 11, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.68 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Jiamusi, soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 59, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.34 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Changchun, corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 96, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.40 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Weifang, corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 216, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.45 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Changchun, starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 121, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.24 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Weifang, starch had a spot price of 2605, no change,

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].