玉米：新季玉米已陆续上市，国庆期间市场收购价大幅下调。短期来看，受粮源集中上市影响，玉米价格仍将维持弱势。中长期需重点关注产 区农户与贸易商的博弈，当前新季玉米产量增加、种植成本下滑，价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前绝对价格偏低且今年粮质较好，若 价格出现大幅回调，预计将触发农户抗价惜售情绪，进而带动玉米价格迎来反弹。 淀粉：节后，新季玉米陆续上市，企业普遍下调原料收购价格。但受成品淀粉制成成本偏高影响，淀粉端调价空间有限。短期来看，原料价格 走弱将带动淀粉价格预期下行，且随着企业开机率回升，库存大概率累积，这将进一步制约淀粉价格的反弹可能。中长期需重点关注下游消费 节奏变化，若淀粉价格出现大幅下跌，预计将刺激下游补货积极性提升，届时价格有望获得支撑。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/24 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Information - BR主力合约(12) price on October 23 was 11,120, with a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 195 compared to September 24 [4]. - Open interest on October 23 was 69,872, a daily decrease of 2,100 and a weekly increase of 52,871 [4]. - Trading volume on October 23 was 99,398, a daily increase of 19,944 and a weekly increase of 42,371 [4]. - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 23 was 8,920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 170 [4]. - The virtual - physical ratio on October 23 was 39.17, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly increase of 29 [4]. Basis/Spread Information - The basis of BR on October 23 was - 20, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly decrease of 145 [4]. - The 12 - 01 spread on October 23 was 25, with no daily change [4]. - The 01 - 02 spread on October 23 was 10, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - The RU - BR spread on October 23 was 4,125 [4]. - The NR - BR spread on October 23 was 1,310, a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 10 [4]. Spot Price and Profit Information - Shandong market price on October 23 was 11,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - Chuanhua market price on October 23 was 10,950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - Qilu factory price on October 23 was 11,200, with no daily and weekly change [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 23 was 1,475, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25 [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 23 was 1,700, with no daily and weekly change [4]. - Spot processing profit on October 23 was 281, a daily increase of 51 and a weekly increase of 229 [4]. - Import profit on October 23 was - 1,280, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly increase of 252 [4]. - Export profit on October 23 was 1,805, a daily increase of 2 and a weekly decrease of 44 [4]. Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Price Information - Shandong market price on October 23 was 8,450, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4]. - Jiangsu market price on October 23 was 8,450, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - Yangzi factory price on October 23 was 8,600, with no daily and weekly change [4]. - CFR China price on October 23 was 970, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 40 [4]. Profit Information - Carbon four extraction profit data was incomplete, with the last available value on October 22 being 1,768 [4]. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 23 was - 154, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4]. - Import profit on October 23 was 492, a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly increase of 222 [4]. - Butadiene production profit on October 23 was 838, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly increase of 88 [4]. - ABS production profit data was incomplete, with the last available value on October 21 being - 60 [4]. - SBS production profit on October 23 was 175, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 282 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - On October 23, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 113, a daily decrease of 28; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 123, a daily increase of 42; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 83, a daily increase of 12 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was 17, a daily decrease of 2; the 12 - 03 spread was 2, a daily decrease of 7; the 01 - 02 spread was -6, a daily decrease of 2 [3]. 2. BU Main Contract (01) - On October 23, the price of the BU main contract (01) was 3277, a daily increase of 28; the trading volume was 404474, a daily increase of 14514; the open interest was 356221, a daily decrease of 12596; the contract free - of - the - property was 12420, a daily decrease of 620 [3]. 3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - On October 23, Brent crude oil was at 62.6, a daily increase of 1.3; the price of Jingbo asphalt was 3330, a daily increase of 20; the price of Hongrun asphalt was 3310, unchanged; the price of Zhenjiang Warehouse asphalt was 3400, a daily increase of 70; the price of Foshan Warehouse asphalt was 3360, a daily increase of 40 [3]. 4. Profits - On October 23, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 413, a daily decrease of 51; the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 862, a daily decrease of 44 [3].

Group 1: Spot Market Information - Newman powder price is 780, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 7. The discounted spot price is 834.6, and the import profit is -27.15 [1] - PB powder price is 783, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5. The discounted spot price is 830.5, and the import profit is -23.48 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 780, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 5. The discounted spot price is 851.9, and the import profit is 2.81 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 751, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 3. The discounted spot price is 844.1, and the import profit is 7.56 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 750, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 5. The discounted spot price is 880.8, and the import profit is 2.47 [1] - Super special powder price is 705, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 2. The discounted spot price is 922.2, and the import profit is 3.27 [1] - Carajás powder price is 907, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 3. The discounted spot price is 853.6, and the import profit is -7.99 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 816, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 6. The discounted spot price is 830.9, and the import profit is -13.47 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 784, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 789, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 905, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 740, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 3 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 905, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 770, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5. The discounted spot price is 847.6, and the import profit is 4.64 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 842, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 640, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 4 [1] - Atlas powder price is 745, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 5 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1021, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 8 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Information - i2601 contract price is 777.0, with a daily change of 3.0 and a weekly change of 3.5. The monthly spread is -42.0, and the spread change is 53.5, with a daily change of -0.8 and a weekly change of 2.7 [1] - i2605 contract price is 756.0, with a daily change of 3.0 and a weekly change of 4.0. The monthly spread is 21.0, and the spread change is 74.5, with a daily change of -0.8 and a weekly change of 2.2 [1] - i2609 contract price is 735.0, with a daily change of 4.0 and a weekly change of 4.0. The monthly spread is 21.0, and the spread change is 95.5, with a daily change of -1.8 and a weekly change of 2.2 [1] - FE01 contract price is 100.95, with a daily change of 0.70 and a weekly change of -0.55. The monthly spread is -4.07, and the spread change is -38.5, with a daily change of -1.3 and a weekly change of 3.8 [1] - FE05 contract price is 98.95, with a daily change of 0.71 and a weekly change of -0.08. The monthly spread is 2.00, and the spread change is -43.4, with a daily change of -2.3 and a weekly change of 1.5 [1] - FE09 contract price is 96.88, with a daily change of 0.69 and a weekly change of 0.02. The monthly spread is 2.07, and the spread change is -48.7, with a daily change of -4.2 and a weekly change of -0.3 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load stabilizes, inventory slightly accumulates, and basis weakens. PX domestic operation rate drops. TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but with long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, and port inventory accumulates. EG will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. The overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, crude oil prices remained unchanged, PTA spot price increased by 55 to 4425, polyester profit decreased by 89 to 29, and inventory (warehouses + valid forecasts) increased by 2203 to 50945 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load is stable, inventory slightly accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee remains low. PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas partial maintenance occurs, PXN expands, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia expands [2]. - **Outlook**: Polyester shows no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG external price increased by 7 to 491, MEG domestic price increased by 66 to 4173, and coal - based MEG profit increased by 66 to 1 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, overseas maintenance occurs, port inventory accumulates slightly, basis is stable, and coal - based efficiency and price ratio contract further [2]. - **Outlook**: EG stock operation returns to a high level, and with new device production, it enters a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25 to 6390, short - fiber profit remained unchanged at 235, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 to 8185 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term device operation is stable, operation rate remains at 94.3%, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increases, and both raw material and finished - product inventory decrease, with efficiency slightly improving [2]. - **Outlook**: The overall operation rate and finished - product inventory of polyester yarn do not significantly increase, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, operation rate remains high with good spot efficiency, overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained unchanged at 1825, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 750 to 14450, and the price of Thai cup - lump increased by 1 to 50.5. The weekly change of RU main contract price increased by 345 to 15245, and NR main contract price increased by 115 to 12430 [2]. - **Market Situation (Daily)**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [2] Styrene - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 100 to 6950 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The price of raw materials and some products shows certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of some products remains stable or changes slightly [5]

2025年10月23日星期四 ➢ 特朗普料中美谈妥一切；香港拟放 宽零售基金规则。A股缩量调整。上 证指数跌0.07%报3913.76点，深证成 指跌0.62%，创业板指跌0.79%。地产、 银行板块涨幅居前。港股低开低走， 香港恒生指数收盘跌 0.94% 报 25781.77点，恒生科技指数跌1.41%， 恒生中国企业指数跌0.85%。医药股 高开低走。大市成交额达2275.37亿 港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收 盘涨跌不一。美国三大股指全线收 跌，道指跌0.71%，标普500指数跌 0.53%，纳指跌0.93%。美国考虑对中 国实施广泛的软件出口限制，特朗 普预测与习近平会晤能谈妥一切问 题。香港拟放宽零售基金规则。 | 25781.77 | -0.94 | 28.52 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9223.78 | -0.85 | 26.53 | | 5923.09 | -1.41 | 32.56 | | 119.30 | 0.33 | -16.57 | | 3913.76 | -0.07 | 16.77 | | 12996.61 | -0.62 | 24.79 | | 4592.5 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Week 43/44 had good cargo receipts. The PA alliance attracted cargo by reducing prices and filled all spaces. OA and MSK accumulated container usage on some routes [2][19]. - In the second week of November, the significant decrease in newly added suspended shipping capacity (240,000 TEU) raised market expectations for shipping companies' price - increase determination. The implementation of price hikes in early November was better than expected, and OA and MSK might achieve partial implementation [2][19]. - The price - increase expectation for late November was set at the end of October, with an average weekly capacity of 300,000 TEU. The capacity in December is high but still subject to change [2][19]. - The logic of buying on dips in December remains unchanged, mainly due to upward drivers from multiple price - increase nodes in the future. However, the current valuation of December contracts is high, and they may fluctuate weakly following the spot market recently [2][19]. - Against the backdrop of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward potential of far - month contracts may be greater as the peak season approaches, but geopolitical disturbances are significant [2][19]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Data - EC2510 had a closing price of 1136.6, a change of 0.14%, a basis of 3.8, a trading volume of 1170, an open interest of 2283, and an open interest change of - 7839 [2][19]. - EC2512 had a closing price of 1788.3, a change of 1.07%, a basis of - 647.9, a trading volume of 28612, an open interest of 29008, and an open interest change of 574 [2][19]. - EC2602 had a closing price of 1582.9, a change of 0.95%, a basis of - 442.5, a trading volume of 4733, an open interest of 10664, and an open interest change of 431 [2][19]. - EC2604 had a closing price of 1171.4, a change of 0.65%, a basis of - 31.0, a trading volume of 2101, an open interest of 14317, and an open interest change of 13 [2][19]. - EC2606 had a closing price of 1353.3, a change of - 0.57%, a basis of - 212.9, a trading volume of 117, and an open interest change of - 23 [2][19]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 651.7, with a daily change of - 17.4 and a weekly change of - 101.5. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 205.4, with a daily change of 4.1 and a weekly change of - 16.5 [2][19]. Spot Data - The spot price of ટેલનિ on October 20, 2025, was 1140.38 points, with a current increase of 10.52% and a previous decrease of - 1.40% [2][19]. - The SCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1145 dollars/TEU, with an increase of 7.21% [2][19]. - The CCFI on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, with a decrease of - 1.49% [2][19]. - The NCFI on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, with a current increase of 14.96% and a previous increase of 11.39% [2][19]. Recent European Line Quotations - In Week 42, the final offline prices were PA1500, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk) [3][20]. - In Week 43, the PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 to 1400 dollars. The offline quotations were PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 dollars [3][20]. - Shipping companies' price - increase expectations for November are mostly between 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the disk. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2350 dollars, in line with expectations [3][20]. Group 4: Related News - On October 22, US Secretary of State Rubio planned to visit Israel to promote the consolidation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4][21]. - On October 22, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would impose a 155% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1, despite expressing hopes for friendly relations with Beijing [4][21]. - The XSI - C index is announced with a three - day delay [4][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For the spread between domestic and overseas markets, gradually take profits on long domestic - short overseas positions and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. For the month - to - month spread, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and increased short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downward space. In the medium - to - long - term, buy at low prices near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the medium - to - long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong in the short term, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for the pattern change [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is mainly influenced by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, when LME copper fell 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is more than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's price - setting volume and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - setting level has significantly increased. The copper cable's recent start - up diverges from that of the aluminum cable, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start - up stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side stabilizes, and the proportion of aluminum water in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in aluminum ingots and aluminum rods due to the holiday effect, but the post - holiday de - stocking amplitude is considerable, and the apparent demand rises [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations deepens, causing a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and overseas markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the domestic TC further decreases, and the imported TC further increases. The domestic ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter exceeds expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month, and the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit should be noted when the domestic ore processing fee declines [2]. - On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the peak season in September. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, while the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the visible inventory is close to the lowest level in the past two years. The export window has opened under the current situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term fundamental situation is weak [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty increases [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mills' production schedule in October increases slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The overall fundamentals are weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. Lead - The lead price oscillates slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 30,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the shortage of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate mine's operation rate increases, and the high smelting profit of primary lead leads to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [10][11]. - On the demand side, the battery's operation rate increases this week, but the battery's finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to output. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. There is an expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season in October. After the National Day, the downstream replenishes goods, and there is a short - term inventory - picking demand [11]. Tin - The tin price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the mining processing fee is at a low level. Some scattered orders have tentatively raised the quotation, but large - scale transactions have not occurred yet. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August is still low, but the recovery expectation in October is strong, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. The quota approval of Indonesia's PT Timah has been completed, and exports resumed in mid - to - late September. The Indonesian president announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, the solder peak season has a slight recovery, mainly supported by rigidity at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level. The domestic fundamentals show a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the expected change of the peak season not being prosperous after the marginal recovery of supply at home and abroad in October and the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation on the non - ferrous metals as a whole [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 in the east. The number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease in the future. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month during the dry season. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon in Q4 is still in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly this week. On the raw material side, the mining end continues to support prices. Due to the significant reduction of the previous inventory, the holders' reluctance to sell is strong, and the spot market is tight. On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continuously exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly [15]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the overall de - stocking trend is maintained. It is expected to de - stock 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and the supply disturbance in Jiangxi. In the long - term pattern, the supply growth rate at the current price is relatively certain, and the subsequent elasticity of the demand side with the increasing proportion of energy - storage is the key variable for the pattern change [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on October 23, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5180 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 50, and weekly changes of 50 and 20. The latest prices of Qinghai 72, Shaanxi 72, and Shaanxi 75 are 5170, 5200, and 5800 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes. The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 are 1055 and 1105 respectively [2]. - For silicon manganese on October 23, 2025, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 vary, and the trading prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 also have different changes [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented. Also, the production data of silicon manganese in China, such as weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4][5][7]. Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production and price of metal magnesium, the export volume of silicon ferroalloy, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon ferroalloy, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided. For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data such as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6][8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of ferroalloys include electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - carbonated manganese ore, and the price of chemical coke. The profit - related data include the production profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the export profit of 75% silicon ferroalloy, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].